MARKETWATCH
"U.S. economy’s huge service sector slows again in November, ISM finds"
By Jeffry Bartash
Published: Dec 4, 2019 11:14 a.m. ET
Medicare-care providers and segments of the service side of the U.S. economy grew in November at the slowest pace in four months.
The numbers:
The huge service side of the U.S. economy slowed again in November, adding to a slew of evidence pointing to weaker growth toward year end.
The Institute for Supply Management’s survey of service-oriented companies such as hospitals, retailers and restaurants fell to 53.9% in November from 54.7%.
Numbers over 50% are viewed as positive for the economy, but the index has come down sharply from a 13-year high of 60.8% just a little over a year ago.
Even worse, the ISM’s manufacturing gauge stayed below the key 50% cutoff line in November for the fourth straight month.
What happened:
The index for business production in the service sector slumped 5.4 points to 51.6%, dropping to the lowest level since 2010, accounting for most of the decline in the overall survey.
Yet new orders actually rose, as did employment and exports.
The index for employment rose to 55.5% from 53.7%, suggesting an increase in hiring for the holiday season.
At the same time, though, many companies say they have a hard time finding qualified workers with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low.
Altogether, 12 of the 17 industries tracked by ISM said their businesses were expanding.
A year ago all but one were growing.
A similar survey of the service side of the U.S. economy produced by IHS Markit edged up to 51.6% in November from 50.6%.
Big picture:
The U.S. economy has slowed along with the rest of the globe in no small part because of the ongoing trade dispute with China.
The spat between the world’s two largest economies has disrupted supply chains and caused businesses to spend and invest more conservatively.
Farmers and manufacturers have been particularly hard hit.
What they are saying?
“We’re optimistic [because the] economy appears to be on autopilot, despite all the political distractions."
"Stock market seems invincible, trade war with China appears to be in a stalemate,” said an executive at a professional-services firm.
“Tariffs are impacting prices for a broad array of products used in the delivery of services and completion of projects for our clients,’ said an executive at a holding company.
“Numerous suppliers report looking for alternative manufacturing/supply locations outside of China, but with limited or no success so far.”
Market reaction:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose in Wednesday trades for the first time in four days.
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 1.74%.
One year ago the yield was above 3%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ec ... 2019-12-04
THE DAILY NEWS
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH
"Democrats say they’re ready to press on with impeachment process"
By Associated Press
Published: Dec 4, 2019 6:03 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had a simple question for fellow Democrats behind closed doors Wednesday, addressing them as the Judiciary Committee considered articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump in an initial hearing that erupted in sharply partisan exchanges.
“Are you ready?” she asked rank-and-file lawmakers.
The answer was a resounding yes.
The Democrats also gave a standing ovation to Rep. Adam Schiff, whose Intelligence Committee report cataloged potential grounds for impeachment, overwhelmingly indicating they want to continue to press the inquiry rather than slow its advance or call a halt for fear of political costs in next year’s congressional elections.
The meeting was described by people familiar with it, who were unauthorized to discuss it by name and were granted anonymity.
Pelosi, once reluctant to engage in a strictly party-line impeachment proceeding, is now leading colleagues to a likely partisan vote after a House investigation found that Trump seriously misused the power of his office to seek foreign interference in the U.S. election and then obstructed Congress in its efforts to investigate.
Support for the impeachment effort was vigorous in the Democrats’ private meeting, though voting to remove Trump could come hard for some lawmakers in regions where the president has substantial backing.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team fanned out across the Capitol with Vice President Mike Pence meeting with House Republicans and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell gathering GOP lawmakers from his chamber with White House officials to prepare for what could be the first presidential impeachment trial in a generation.
Some of those from the White House still believe the unpopularity of impeachment in areas where Trump is popular will prevent a vote in the House.
That seems unlikely.
Elsewhere at the Capitol, Republicans at the Judiciary Committee hearing protested the proceedings as unfair, the dredging up of unfounded allegations as part of an effort to undo the 2016 election and remove Trump from office.
“You just don’t like the guy,” said Rep. Doug Collins of Georgia, the top Republican on the panel.
He called the proceedings a “disgrace’’ and a “sham.”
Trump, attending a NATO meeting in London called the hearing a “joke” and doubted many people would watch “because it’s going to be boring.”
Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., had a different view as he gaveled open the session.
The matter is serious and “the facts before us are undisputed,” he declared.
Pelosi has said no decision has been made on whether there will be a House vote on impeaching Trump.
But a vote by Christmas appears increasingly likely with the release of the 300-page report by Democrats on the Intelligence Committee that found “serious misconduct” by the president.
At the heart of the inquiry is Trump’s July 25 phone call asking Ukraine for a “favor,” to investigate rival Democrats including Joe Biden.
Trump at the time was withholding $400 million in military aid from the ally, which faced an aggressive Russia on its border.
Nadler said the phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wasn’t the first time Trump sought a foreign power to influence American elections, noting Russian interference in 2016.
“We cannot wait for the election to address the present crisis,” Nadler said.
“The president has shown us his pattern of conduct."
"If we do not act to hold him in check, now, President Trump will almost certainly try again to solicit interference in the election for his personal political gain.”
White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, who has declined for now to participate in the House proceedings, relayed that Trump sees no need for a Senate trial but is eager to have his say.
Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., said, “He feels like he has had no opportunity to tell his side of the story.”
Trump lambastes the impeachment probe daily and proclaims his innocence of any wrongdoing at length, but he has declined to testify before House hearings.
At Wednesday’s session, three legal experts called by Democrats said impeachment was merited.
Noah Feldman, a Harvard Law School professor, said he considered it clear that the president’s conduct met the definition of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Pamela Karlan, a Stanford Law School professor and former Obama administration Justice Department official, said the president’s action constituted an especially serious abuse of power “because it undermines democracy itself.”
“If what we’re talking about is not impeachable,” said Michael Gerhardt, a University of North Carolina law professor, “then nothing is impeachable.”
The only Republican witness, Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University, dissented.
He said the Democrats were bringing a “slipshod impeachment” case against the president, but he didn’t excuse Trump’s behavior.
“It is not wrong because President Trump is right,” Turley said.
“A case for impeachment could be made, but it cannot be made on this record.”
New telephone records released with the House committee report deepened Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s known involvement in what House investigators call the “scheme.”
Asked about that, Trump told reporters he doesn’t know why Giuliani was calling the White House Office of Management and Budget, which was withholding $400 million in military aid to Ukraine.
“’You have to ask him,” Trump said.
“Sounds like something that’s not so complicated."
"... No big deal.”
Based on two months of investigation sparked by a still-anonymous government whistleblower’s complaint, the Intelligence Committee’s Trump-Ukraine Impeachment Inquiry Report relies heavily on testimony from current and former U.S. officials who defied White House orders and appeared.
Trump “sought to undermine the integrity of the U.S. presidential election process, and endangered U.S. national security,” the committee report says.
When Congress began investigating, it adds, Trump obstructed the investigation like no other president in history.
Republicans defended the president in a 123-page rebuttal claiming Trump never intended to pressure Ukraine when he asked for a “favor” — investigations of Democrats and Biden and his son.
They say the military aid the White House was withholding was not being used as leverage, as Democrats claim — and besides, the money was ultimately released, although only after a congressional outcry.
Democrats once hoped to sway Republicans to consider Trump’s removal, but they are now facing an ever-hardening partisan split over the swift-moving proceedings that are dividing Congress and the country.
While liberal Democrats are pushing the party to go further and incorporate the findings from former special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian interference in the 2016 election and other actions by Trump, more centrist and moderate Democrats prefer to stick with the Ukraine matter as a simpler narrative that Americans understand.
Democrats could begin drafting articles of impeachment in a matter of days, with a Judiciary Committee vote next week.
The full House could vote by Christmas.
Then the matter would move to the Senate for a trial in 2020.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/democ ... latestnews
"Democrats say they’re ready to press on with impeachment process"
By Associated Press
Published: Dec 4, 2019 6:03 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had a simple question for fellow Democrats behind closed doors Wednesday, addressing them as the Judiciary Committee considered articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump in an initial hearing that erupted in sharply partisan exchanges.
“Are you ready?” she asked rank-and-file lawmakers.
The answer was a resounding yes.
The Democrats also gave a standing ovation to Rep. Adam Schiff, whose Intelligence Committee report cataloged potential grounds for impeachment, overwhelmingly indicating they want to continue to press the inquiry rather than slow its advance or call a halt for fear of political costs in next year’s congressional elections.
The meeting was described by people familiar with it, who were unauthorized to discuss it by name and were granted anonymity.
Pelosi, once reluctant to engage in a strictly party-line impeachment proceeding, is now leading colleagues to a likely partisan vote after a House investigation found that Trump seriously misused the power of his office to seek foreign interference in the U.S. election and then obstructed Congress in its efforts to investigate.
Support for the impeachment effort was vigorous in the Democrats’ private meeting, though voting to remove Trump could come hard for some lawmakers in regions where the president has substantial backing.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team fanned out across the Capitol with Vice President Mike Pence meeting with House Republicans and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell gathering GOP lawmakers from his chamber with White House officials to prepare for what could be the first presidential impeachment trial in a generation.
Some of those from the White House still believe the unpopularity of impeachment in areas where Trump is popular will prevent a vote in the House.
That seems unlikely.
Elsewhere at the Capitol, Republicans at the Judiciary Committee hearing protested the proceedings as unfair, the dredging up of unfounded allegations as part of an effort to undo the 2016 election and remove Trump from office.
“You just don’t like the guy,” said Rep. Doug Collins of Georgia, the top Republican on the panel.
He called the proceedings a “disgrace’’ and a “sham.”
Trump, attending a NATO meeting in London called the hearing a “joke” and doubted many people would watch “because it’s going to be boring.”
Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., had a different view as he gaveled open the session.
The matter is serious and “the facts before us are undisputed,” he declared.
Pelosi has said no decision has been made on whether there will be a House vote on impeaching Trump.
But a vote by Christmas appears increasingly likely with the release of the 300-page report by Democrats on the Intelligence Committee that found “serious misconduct” by the president.
At the heart of the inquiry is Trump’s July 25 phone call asking Ukraine for a “favor,” to investigate rival Democrats including Joe Biden.
Trump at the time was withholding $400 million in military aid from the ally, which faced an aggressive Russia on its border.
Nadler said the phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wasn’t the first time Trump sought a foreign power to influence American elections, noting Russian interference in 2016.
“We cannot wait for the election to address the present crisis,” Nadler said.
“The president has shown us his pattern of conduct."
"If we do not act to hold him in check, now, President Trump will almost certainly try again to solicit interference in the election for his personal political gain.”
White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, who has declined for now to participate in the House proceedings, relayed that Trump sees no need for a Senate trial but is eager to have his say.
Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., said, “He feels like he has had no opportunity to tell his side of the story.”
Trump lambastes the impeachment probe daily and proclaims his innocence of any wrongdoing at length, but he has declined to testify before House hearings.
At Wednesday’s session, three legal experts called by Democrats said impeachment was merited.
Noah Feldman, a Harvard Law School professor, said he considered it clear that the president’s conduct met the definition of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Pamela Karlan, a Stanford Law School professor and former Obama administration Justice Department official, said the president’s action constituted an especially serious abuse of power “because it undermines democracy itself.”
“If what we’re talking about is not impeachable,” said Michael Gerhardt, a University of North Carolina law professor, “then nothing is impeachable.”
The only Republican witness, Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University, dissented.
He said the Democrats were bringing a “slipshod impeachment” case against the president, but he didn’t excuse Trump’s behavior.
“It is not wrong because President Trump is right,” Turley said.
“A case for impeachment could be made, but it cannot be made on this record.”
New telephone records released with the House committee report deepened Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s known involvement in what House investigators call the “scheme.”
Asked about that, Trump told reporters he doesn’t know why Giuliani was calling the White House Office of Management and Budget, which was withholding $400 million in military aid to Ukraine.
“’You have to ask him,” Trump said.
“Sounds like something that’s not so complicated."
"... No big deal.”
Based on two months of investigation sparked by a still-anonymous government whistleblower’s complaint, the Intelligence Committee’s Trump-Ukraine Impeachment Inquiry Report relies heavily on testimony from current and former U.S. officials who defied White House orders and appeared.
Trump “sought to undermine the integrity of the U.S. presidential election process, and endangered U.S. national security,” the committee report says.
When Congress began investigating, it adds, Trump obstructed the investigation like no other president in history.
Republicans defended the president in a 123-page rebuttal claiming Trump never intended to pressure Ukraine when he asked for a “favor” — investigations of Democrats and Biden and his son.
They say the military aid the White House was withholding was not being used as leverage, as Democrats claim — and besides, the money was ultimately released, although only after a congressional outcry.
Democrats once hoped to sway Republicans to consider Trump’s removal, but they are now facing an ever-hardening partisan split over the swift-moving proceedings that are dividing Congress and the country.
While liberal Democrats are pushing the party to go further and incorporate the findings from former special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian interference in the 2016 election and other actions by Trump, more centrist and moderate Democrats prefer to stick with the Ukraine matter as a simpler narrative that Americans understand.
Democrats could begin drafting articles of impeachment in a matter of days, with a Judiciary Committee vote next week.
The full House could vote by Christmas.
Then the matter would move to the Senate for a trial in 2020.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/democ ... latestnews
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
AFP
"'Do it for our children,' parents plead at UN climate meet"
5 Dec 2019
Parents from around the globe Thursday said governments locked in negotiations at UN talks in Madrid must beat back the threat of global warming to "give our children the future that they deserve".
"Our children are being handed a broken world on the verge of climate chaos and ecological breakdown," they said in an open declaration from 222 associations in 27 countries.
"As parents, seeing this is agonising."
The plea comes the day before young climate strikers led by Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg plan to march through the Spanish capital under the Friday for Futures banner.
The student-led movement -- sparked by Thunberg's solo protests last year outside Sweden's parliament -- saw millions pour into the streets worldwide ahead of a UN climate summit in September.
"Many of the delegates at COP25 are also parents and we appeal to these delegates in particular," the declaration said.
"Addressing the climate crisis is not the responsibility of our children –- it’s our job as adults and parents to act."
The 12-day UN talks, under way since Monday, are mired in the small print of the 2015 Paris climate treaty's "rule book".
Despite a crescendo of public alarm, the world's major carbon polluters have shown little or no willingness to improve on emissions reduction pledges that, collectively, are not deep enough to prevent catastrophic warming, scientists say.
"Every person in the negotiations has a responsibility to act to ensure our children’s rights are safeguarded, and to disregard vested corporate interests," said Isabella Prata, a mother of two, from Parents for Future Brazil.
- 'Letting down humanity' -
Protecting future generations is a recurring leitmotif at the talks, echoed by leaders and frontline diplomats alike.
On Monday, as 40 heads of state took turns working similar themes, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen at one point held up a stuffed polar bear.
"All of you, just like me, are so-called decision-makers, and probably have children or grandchildren who you love," he said in a scolding tone.
"Think about those children when you take a decision on behalf of your country," he said.
"Because our children will later think about us -- about what we did, or what we did not do."
Costa Rica's President Carlos Alvarado made it even more personal.
"I have a six-year-old kid," he told a gathering of leaders from climate-vulnerable nations.
"If we are not courageous enough to take action in these weeks, we will not only be failing me and my kid, we will be letting down humanity."
The Paris Agreement calls for capping global warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but the greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change keep rising.
Scientists reported this week in Madrid that CO2 emissions will rise just over 0.5 percent in 2019, to about 42 billion tonnes per year -- the equivalent of five million tonnes per hour.
Earth's average surface temperature, which has already gone up more than 1C, is on track to rise another two or three degrees, even if nations keep their Paris treaty promises.
"At our current rate of emissions, we are dangerously close to reaching tipping points which could unravel human civilisation within our own and our children’s lifetimes," the declaration said.
"We are at a turning point in the story of our species, and you, the delegates of this influential UN climate summit, have an opportunity to choose what happens next."
"We know that you can and we trust that you will."
In August, Thunberg -- who refuses to fly -- set sail from England to New York, and from there continued overland towards Santiago, where the UN climate conference was to be held.
But the annual meet was transferred to Madrid because of social unrest in the Chilean capital, so Thunberg did a U-turn from the US west coast, arriving Tuesday in Lisbon.
https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/do-it-o ... oc-1mt7182
"'Do it for our children,' parents plead at UN climate meet"
5 Dec 2019
Parents from around the globe Thursday said governments locked in negotiations at UN talks in Madrid must beat back the threat of global warming to "give our children the future that they deserve".
"Our children are being handed a broken world on the verge of climate chaos and ecological breakdown," they said in an open declaration from 222 associations in 27 countries.
"As parents, seeing this is agonising."
The plea comes the day before young climate strikers led by Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg plan to march through the Spanish capital under the Friday for Futures banner.
The student-led movement -- sparked by Thunberg's solo protests last year outside Sweden's parliament -- saw millions pour into the streets worldwide ahead of a UN climate summit in September.
"Many of the delegates at COP25 are also parents and we appeal to these delegates in particular," the declaration said.
"Addressing the climate crisis is not the responsibility of our children –- it’s our job as adults and parents to act."
The 12-day UN talks, under way since Monday, are mired in the small print of the 2015 Paris climate treaty's "rule book".
Despite a crescendo of public alarm, the world's major carbon polluters have shown little or no willingness to improve on emissions reduction pledges that, collectively, are not deep enough to prevent catastrophic warming, scientists say.
"Every person in the negotiations has a responsibility to act to ensure our children’s rights are safeguarded, and to disregard vested corporate interests," said Isabella Prata, a mother of two, from Parents for Future Brazil.
- 'Letting down humanity' -
Protecting future generations is a recurring leitmotif at the talks, echoed by leaders and frontline diplomats alike.
On Monday, as 40 heads of state took turns working similar themes, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen at one point held up a stuffed polar bear.
"All of you, just like me, are so-called decision-makers, and probably have children or grandchildren who you love," he said in a scolding tone.
"Think about those children when you take a decision on behalf of your country," he said.
"Because our children will later think about us -- about what we did, or what we did not do."
Costa Rica's President Carlos Alvarado made it even more personal.
"I have a six-year-old kid," he told a gathering of leaders from climate-vulnerable nations.
"If we are not courageous enough to take action in these weeks, we will not only be failing me and my kid, we will be letting down humanity."
The Paris Agreement calls for capping global warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but the greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change keep rising.
Scientists reported this week in Madrid that CO2 emissions will rise just over 0.5 percent in 2019, to about 42 billion tonnes per year -- the equivalent of five million tonnes per hour.
Earth's average surface temperature, which has already gone up more than 1C, is on track to rise another two or three degrees, even if nations keep their Paris treaty promises.
"At our current rate of emissions, we are dangerously close to reaching tipping points which could unravel human civilisation within our own and our children’s lifetimes," the declaration said.
"We are at a turning point in the story of our species, and you, the delegates of this influential UN climate summit, have an opportunity to choose what happens next."
"We know that you can and we trust that you will."
In August, Thunberg -- who refuses to fly -- set sail from England to New York, and from there continued overland towards Santiago, where the UN climate conference was to be held.
But the annual meet was transferred to Madrid because of social unrest in the Chilean capital, so Thunberg did a U-turn from the US west coast, arriving Tuesday in Lisbon.
https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/do-it-o ... oc-1mt7182
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH Bond Report
"U.S. government bond yields end mostly flat as market awaits jobs report"
By Mark DeCambre and Joy Wiltermuth
Published: Dec 5, 2019 4:30 p.m. ET
U.S. Treasury yields ended largely unchanged Thursday as traders awaited a key reading of employment on Friday that could offer further insight on the state of the domestic economy.
Initial jobless claims dropped 10,000 to 203,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 30, the government said Thursday, marking the lowest level read since mid-April, when new claims fell to a 50-year low of 193,000.
But the report largely was overshadowed by coming U.S. Labor Department data on monthly nonfarm-payrolls due on Friday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipating growth of 190,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%.
“Yields are up slightly on the economic data,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, in an interview with MarketWatch.
But he also said the market was “grinding sideways” ahead of Friday’s payroll figures.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 1.4 basis points 1.795%, while the two-year Treasury yield was virtually unchanged at 1.582%.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond, meanwhile, picked up 1.7 basis points to 2.246%.
Yield gains for U.S. debt on Wednesday represented the largest single-session increases for two-year and 10-year notes since Nov. 7, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Investors have been attuned to the health of the U.S. economy, amid anemic growth elsewhere around the globe, with Sino-American trade tensions deepening global economic weakness, strategists say.
Strength in the U.S. labor market has given investors some cause for cheer — that contraction hitting elsewhere may not immediately damage employment, one of the pillars of domestic growth.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said that achieving Friday’s expected payroll gains “would be very positive for the economy and the markets through the rest of the year,” in commentary posted Thursday.
Market strategists also have been watching the shifting narrative in the Sino-American trade negotiations as both parties work toward a partial pact to end tariff hostilities.
China’s trade negotiations with the U.S. remain on track, Beijing said Thursday, offering official reassurance after tensions flared up between the world’s two biggest economies.
China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman said negotiating teams remain in “close contact.”
“If China and the U.S. strike a phase-one deal, relevant tariffs should be reduced,” Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said.
But agriculture-related trade could be a sticking point, with President Donald Trump pressing for Beijing to commit to buying $40 billion to $50 billion in farm goods a year within two years, which would be a sharp increase from last year’s $8.6 billion of purchases.
Meanwhile, a Thursday report showed that the nation’s trade deficit dropped almost 8% in October to a 16-month low, largely because of lower imports from China tied to the continuing U.S. trade dispute.
The deficit slid to $47.2 billion from a revised $51.1 billion in the prior month, the government said Thursday.
If it persists through December, the smaller gap could give a boost to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.
On Wednesday, markets appeared to shake off a weaker-than-expected private-sector payrolls report from ADP showing just 67,000 job gains in November, well below the consensus forecast of 156,000 by a survey of economists by Econoday.
“Markets made another U-turn yesterday."
"Equities rebounded on hopes of a trade deal and USTs were correspondingly hit and failed to receive support from weaker than expected ADP,” wrote analysts at UniCredit in a Thursday research note.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-go ... latestnews
"U.S. government bond yields end mostly flat as market awaits jobs report"
By Mark DeCambre and Joy Wiltermuth
Published: Dec 5, 2019 4:30 p.m. ET
U.S. Treasury yields ended largely unchanged Thursday as traders awaited a key reading of employment on Friday that could offer further insight on the state of the domestic economy.
Initial jobless claims dropped 10,000 to 203,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 30, the government said Thursday, marking the lowest level read since mid-April, when new claims fell to a 50-year low of 193,000.
But the report largely was overshadowed by coming U.S. Labor Department data on monthly nonfarm-payrolls due on Friday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipating growth of 190,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%.
“Yields are up slightly on the economic data,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, in an interview with MarketWatch.
But he also said the market was “grinding sideways” ahead of Friday’s payroll figures.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 1.4 basis points 1.795%, while the two-year Treasury yield was virtually unchanged at 1.582%.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond, meanwhile, picked up 1.7 basis points to 2.246%.
Yield gains for U.S. debt on Wednesday represented the largest single-session increases for two-year and 10-year notes since Nov. 7, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Investors have been attuned to the health of the U.S. economy, amid anemic growth elsewhere around the globe, with Sino-American trade tensions deepening global economic weakness, strategists say.
Strength in the U.S. labor market has given investors some cause for cheer — that contraction hitting elsewhere may not immediately damage employment, one of the pillars of domestic growth.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said that achieving Friday’s expected payroll gains “would be very positive for the economy and the markets through the rest of the year,” in commentary posted Thursday.
Market strategists also have been watching the shifting narrative in the Sino-American trade negotiations as both parties work toward a partial pact to end tariff hostilities.
China’s trade negotiations with the U.S. remain on track, Beijing said Thursday, offering official reassurance after tensions flared up between the world’s two biggest economies.
China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman said negotiating teams remain in “close contact.”
“If China and the U.S. strike a phase-one deal, relevant tariffs should be reduced,” Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said.
But agriculture-related trade could be a sticking point, with President Donald Trump pressing for Beijing to commit to buying $40 billion to $50 billion in farm goods a year within two years, which would be a sharp increase from last year’s $8.6 billion of purchases.
Meanwhile, a Thursday report showed that the nation’s trade deficit dropped almost 8% in October to a 16-month low, largely because of lower imports from China tied to the continuing U.S. trade dispute.
The deficit slid to $47.2 billion from a revised $51.1 billion in the prior month, the government said Thursday.
If it persists through December, the smaller gap could give a boost to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.
On Wednesday, markets appeared to shake off a weaker-than-expected private-sector payrolls report from ADP showing just 67,000 job gains in November, well below the consensus forecast of 156,000 by a survey of economists by Econoday.
“Markets made another U-turn yesterday."
"Equities rebounded on hopes of a trade deal and USTs were correspondingly hit and failed to receive support from weaker than expected ADP,” wrote analysts at UniCredit in a Thursday research note.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-go ... latestnews
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH
"U.S. stocks shrug off trade deal concerns, close higher"
By Clive McKeef and Andrea Riquier
Published: Dec 5, 2019 4:12 p.m. ET
U.S. stocks recovered from a morning slide and moved higher to close in the black on Thursday as investors remained optimistic about prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal despite a looming deadline for the imposition of fresh import tariffs by President Donald Trump.
How are major benchmarks performing?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 28.01 points, 0.1%, at 27,677.79 after trading in the red most of the day.
The S&P 500 was up 4.67 points, or 0.15%, at 3,117.43 and the Nasdaq 100 closed 4.03 points higher, or 0.05%, at 8,570.70.
As of Thursday’s close, all three indexes will still closely the week lower: the Dow is still on track to decline 1.3%, the S&P 500 is poised for a 0.7% skid, and the Nasdaq Composite will see a decline of 1.1%.
What’s driving the market?
Investors are still optimistic about a U.S. - China trade deal after a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, Gao Feng, said at a weekly briefing on Thursday that negotiations toward a so-called phase-one pact to cease tariff hostilities between the world’s largest economies are progressing.
However, Feng emphasized that China wants a rollback of existing tariffs to be included as a part of any resolution.
The comments come after President Trump on Wednesday described negotiations in upbeat terms ahead of a Dec. 15 deadline at which import duties will be placed on $156 billion in China goods.
President Trump earlier in the week had raised fears that a resolution may not be achieved until after the U.S. 2020 presidential elections.
“Progress on U.S.-China trade discussions needs to come sooner rather than later if economic growth or corporate profits are going to improve in 2020,” John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist for LPL Financial, said in a note.
But as the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, the value of the farm goods China will buy from the U.S. is still an issue.
President Trump is said to want a $40 to $50 billion a year pace of purchasing, twice as much as China bought before the trade war began in 2018.
In U.S. economic data, the nation’s trade deficit dropped almost 8% in October to a 16-month low, largely because of lower imports from China, but the U.S. is on track to record the biggest annual trade deficit in 11 years despite President Trump’s trade war with China.
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits at the end of November fell to the lowest level in seven months and returned close to a 50-year low, but the sharp decline in jobless claims likely stems in part from the Thanksgiving holiday.
U.S factory orders rose 0.3% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday, for the first gain in three months.
The market now awaits the monthly U.S. Labor Department report on payrolls and unemployment due Friday.
The MarketWatch consensus forecast is for a gain of 180,000 jobs in November.
“Should the jobs report come in reasonably healthy and the trade negotiations keep moving forward, December will also likely be a better month than the headlines at the start of the month suggested,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said.
“December is historically a strong month for markets, and a Santa Claus rally remains possible, despite the volatility at the start of the month."
What stocks are in focus?
Kroger shares fell 3% after the supermarket chain’s third-quarter earnings fell short of estimates.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. shares pulled back after a hefty increase Wednesday after the company secured a debt financing deal.
It was the most actively-traded stock on major exchanges Thursday.
Office-messaging company Slack Technologies Inc. reported quarterly results and raised its full-year guidance.
Shares jumped more than 4%.
Tax adviser H&R Block reported that its net loss widened from a year earlier in its recent quarter, and reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the year.
Shares were fractionally lower.
Dollar General Corp. shares rose after the discount retailer beat estimates for its fiscal third quarter and raised its full-year guidance.
Tiffany & Co. reported a fiscal third-quarter profit that fell more than expected, and net sales and same-store sales that missed forecasts.
Shares ticked down.
How are other markets faring?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 1.80% after a report on jobless claims fell to the lowest level since April.
Oil futures rose on reports that OPEC and its allies have recommended cutting production by 500,000 barrels a day, on top of the current output-cut agreement, ahead of the official gatherings of major oil producers in Vienna over the next two days.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery rose 62 cents or 1.2% to $52.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold for February delivery was up 80 cents, less than 0.1%, to $1,481.00 an ounce on Comex.
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 97.43 against a basket of a half-dozen currency peers, extending a weeklong slide.
European stocks closed higher, with the Stoxx Europe higher at 404.68.
In Asia overnight, the Hang Seng advanced 0.6%, the China CSI 300 rose 0.8%, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.7% higher.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... od=markets
"U.S. stocks shrug off trade deal concerns, close higher"
By Clive McKeef and Andrea Riquier
Published: Dec 5, 2019 4:12 p.m. ET
U.S. stocks recovered from a morning slide and moved higher to close in the black on Thursday as investors remained optimistic about prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal despite a looming deadline for the imposition of fresh import tariffs by President Donald Trump.
How are major benchmarks performing?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 28.01 points, 0.1%, at 27,677.79 after trading in the red most of the day.
The S&P 500 was up 4.67 points, or 0.15%, at 3,117.43 and the Nasdaq 100 closed 4.03 points higher, or 0.05%, at 8,570.70.
As of Thursday’s close, all three indexes will still closely the week lower: the Dow is still on track to decline 1.3%, the S&P 500 is poised for a 0.7% skid, and the Nasdaq Composite will see a decline of 1.1%.
What’s driving the market?
Investors are still optimistic about a U.S. - China trade deal after a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, Gao Feng, said at a weekly briefing on Thursday that negotiations toward a so-called phase-one pact to cease tariff hostilities between the world’s largest economies are progressing.
However, Feng emphasized that China wants a rollback of existing tariffs to be included as a part of any resolution.
The comments come after President Trump on Wednesday described negotiations in upbeat terms ahead of a Dec. 15 deadline at which import duties will be placed on $156 billion in China goods.
President Trump earlier in the week had raised fears that a resolution may not be achieved until after the U.S. 2020 presidential elections.
“Progress on U.S.-China trade discussions needs to come sooner rather than later if economic growth or corporate profits are going to improve in 2020,” John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist for LPL Financial, said in a note.
But as the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, the value of the farm goods China will buy from the U.S. is still an issue.
President Trump is said to want a $40 to $50 billion a year pace of purchasing, twice as much as China bought before the trade war began in 2018.
In U.S. economic data, the nation’s trade deficit dropped almost 8% in October to a 16-month low, largely because of lower imports from China, but the U.S. is on track to record the biggest annual trade deficit in 11 years despite President Trump’s trade war with China.
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits at the end of November fell to the lowest level in seven months and returned close to a 50-year low, but the sharp decline in jobless claims likely stems in part from the Thanksgiving holiday.
U.S factory orders rose 0.3% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday, for the first gain in three months.
The market now awaits the monthly U.S. Labor Department report on payrolls and unemployment due Friday.
The MarketWatch consensus forecast is for a gain of 180,000 jobs in November.
“Should the jobs report come in reasonably healthy and the trade negotiations keep moving forward, December will also likely be a better month than the headlines at the start of the month suggested,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said.
“December is historically a strong month for markets, and a Santa Claus rally remains possible, despite the volatility at the start of the month."
What stocks are in focus?
Kroger shares fell 3% after the supermarket chain’s third-quarter earnings fell short of estimates.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. shares pulled back after a hefty increase Wednesday after the company secured a debt financing deal.
It was the most actively-traded stock on major exchanges Thursday.
Office-messaging company Slack Technologies Inc. reported quarterly results and raised its full-year guidance.
Shares jumped more than 4%.
Tax adviser H&R Block reported that its net loss widened from a year earlier in its recent quarter, and reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the year.
Shares were fractionally lower.
Dollar General Corp. shares rose after the discount retailer beat estimates for its fiscal third quarter and raised its full-year guidance.
Tiffany & Co. reported a fiscal third-quarter profit that fell more than expected, and net sales and same-store sales that missed forecasts.
Shares ticked down.
How are other markets faring?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 1.80% after a report on jobless claims fell to the lowest level since April.
Oil futures rose on reports that OPEC and its allies have recommended cutting production by 500,000 barrels a day, on top of the current output-cut agreement, ahead of the official gatherings of major oil producers in Vienna over the next two days.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery rose 62 cents or 1.2% to $52.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold for February delivery was up 80 cents, less than 0.1%, to $1,481.00 an ounce on Comex.
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 97.43 against a basket of a half-dozen currency peers, extending a weeklong slide.
European stocks closed higher, with the Stoxx Europe higher at 404.68.
In Asia overnight, the Hang Seng advanced 0.6%, the China CSI 300 rose 0.8%, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.7% higher.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... od=markets
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH
"Oil futures end mixed as traders await confirmation of deeper production cuts"
By Myra P. Saefong and Mark DeCambre
Published: Dec 5, 2019 2:59 p.m. ET
Oil futures ended on a mixed note Thursday, with U.S. prices settling unchanged for the session and global prices higher, as traders awaited a decision on output from major oil producers, following reports that OPEC and its allies have recommended cutting production by another 500,000 barrels a day.
“Whereas there is no official announcement, and none is expected until after the Friday meeting, there is a clear signal that OPEC members are looking to deepen their cuts by 500,00 [barrels a day],” said Manish Raj, chief financial officer at Velandera Energy.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled flat at $58.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Prices climbed 4.2% on Wednesday to mark the highest settlement for the contract since Nov. 21, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
February Brent crude added 39 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $63.39 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after surging 3.6% in the previous session.
A committee of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia recommended on Thursday that the group deepen their current oil production cuts by 500,000 barrels a day, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The committee is also pushing for improved compliance from countries such as Nigeria and Iraq, which have not fully met their quota commitments, the report said.
The reduction would come on top of the current agreement between OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, which calls for cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day from late 2018 levels through March 2020.
The deal has yet to be ratified by OPEC+, and the group plans to meet in early March to review the deal and potentially extend it, according to a tweet from Herman Wang of S&P Global Platts.
OPEC members will hold a closed session meeting Thursday and members will meet with allied non-member producers on Friday.
Speculation over deeper cuts had been growing over the last few days, but there was also talk that the Saudis threatened to boost their own production because other members have failed to fully comply with current output reductions.
The Saudis “put a wrench in its discussion with OPEC members by threatening to flood the market with excess production, in case OPEC members fail to show discipline,” said Raj.
“With its excess capacity of 2 million [barrels a day], Saudi Arabia is uniquely positioned to unilaterally flood the market, giving it both the means as well as the motivation to manage oil prices, should OPEC members fail to agree.”
OPEC members under the current output cut reached a 145% compliance rate with the pact in November, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of the group’s production released Thursday.
The Saudis have been producing well under its quota limit while countries such as Iraq and Nigeria continue to produce oil above their quotas, the survey said.
The OPEC convention comes as Saudi Arabia completes the initial public offering of a 1.5% stake in energy behemoth Saudi Aramco.
The oil giant priced its IPO Thursday at 32 riyals per share, valuing the company at $1.7 trillion.
Trading is expected on the Saudi Tadawul stock exchange next week.
The meeting of OPEC and its allies also comes after the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 4.9 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 29.
That followed increases in each of the past five weeks.
Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a fall of 700,000 barrels.
The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a 3.7 million-barrel decline.
Back on Nymex, January gasoline tacked on 1.1% to $1.6211 a gallon and January heating oil rose 0.5% to $1.933 a gallon.
January natural gas rose 2.8 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.427 per million British thermal units.
The EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 19 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 29.
Analysts expected a fall of 21 billion cubic feet, on average, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Platts.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-f ... 2019-12-05
"Oil futures end mixed as traders await confirmation of deeper production cuts"
By Myra P. Saefong and Mark DeCambre
Published: Dec 5, 2019 2:59 p.m. ET
Oil futures ended on a mixed note Thursday, with U.S. prices settling unchanged for the session and global prices higher, as traders awaited a decision on output from major oil producers, following reports that OPEC and its allies have recommended cutting production by another 500,000 barrels a day.
“Whereas there is no official announcement, and none is expected until after the Friday meeting, there is a clear signal that OPEC members are looking to deepen their cuts by 500,00 [barrels a day],” said Manish Raj, chief financial officer at Velandera Energy.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled flat at $58.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Prices climbed 4.2% on Wednesday to mark the highest settlement for the contract since Nov. 21, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
February Brent crude added 39 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $63.39 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after surging 3.6% in the previous session.
A committee of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia recommended on Thursday that the group deepen their current oil production cuts by 500,000 barrels a day, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The committee is also pushing for improved compliance from countries such as Nigeria and Iraq, which have not fully met their quota commitments, the report said.
The reduction would come on top of the current agreement between OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, which calls for cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day from late 2018 levels through March 2020.
The deal has yet to be ratified by OPEC+, and the group plans to meet in early March to review the deal and potentially extend it, according to a tweet from Herman Wang of S&P Global Platts.
OPEC members will hold a closed session meeting Thursday and members will meet with allied non-member producers on Friday.
Speculation over deeper cuts had been growing over the last few days, but there was also talk that the Saudis threatened to boost their own production because other members have failed to fully comply with current output reductions.
The Saudis “put a wrench in its discussion with OPEC members by threatening to flood the market with excess production, in case OPEC members fail to show discipline,” said Raj.
“With its excess capacity of 2 million [barrels a day], Saudi Arabia is uniquely positioned to unilaterally flood the market, giving it both the means as well as the motivation to manage oil prices, should OPEC members fail to agree.”
OPEC members under the current output cut reached a 145% compliance rate with the pact in November, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of the group’s production released Thursday.
The Saudis have been producing well under its quota limit while countries such as Iraq and Nigeria continue to produce oil above their quotas, the survey said.
The OPEC convention comes as Saudi Arabia completes the initial public offering of a 1.5% stake in energy behemoth Saudi Aramco.
The oil giant priced its IPO Thursday at 32 riyals per share, valuing the company at $1.7 trillion.
Trading is expected on the Saudi Tadawul stock exchange next week.
The meeting of OPEC and its allies also comes after the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 4.9 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 29.
That followed increases in each of the past five weeks.
Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a fall of 700,000 barrels.
The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a 3.7 million-barrel decline.
Back on Nymex, January gasoline tacked on 1.1% to $1.6211 a gallon and January heating oil rose 0.5% to $1.933 a gallon.
January natural gas rose 2.8 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.427 per million British thermal units.
The EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 19 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 29.
Analysts expected a fall of 21 billion cubic feet, on average, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Platts.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-f ... 2019-12-05
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH
"U.S. factory orders rise in October"
By Greg Robb
Published: Dec 5, 2019 10:10 a.m. ET
Factory orders rose 0.3% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
This is the first gain in three months.
Orders in September were revised to a 0.8% drop compared with the previous estimate of a 0.6% fall.
Economists were expecting a 0.2% rise.
Durable goods orders rose a revised 0.5%, down slightly from last week's initial estimate of a 0.6% rise.
Orders for nondurable goods were flat in the month.
T.J. Connelly, head of research at Contingent Macro, noted that the growth rate in factory orders is down 1.2% year-over-year.
"Overall, the factory sector showed only hints of stabilization amid a continued downtrend," Connelly said, in a note to clients.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-fa ... 2019-12-05
"U.S. factory orders rise in October"
By Greg Robb
Published: Dec 5, 2019 10:10 a.m. ET
Factory orders rose 0.3% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
This is the first gain in three months.
Orders in September were revised to a 0.8% drop compared with the previous estimate of a 0.6% fall.
Economists were expecting a 0.2% rise.
Durable goods orders rose a revised 0.5%, down slightly from last week's initial estimate of a 0.6% rise.
Orders for nondurable goods were flat in the month.
T.J. Connelly, head of research at Contingent Macro, noted that the growth rate in factory orders is down 1.2% year-over-year.
"Overall, the factory sector showed only hints of stabilization amid a continued downtrend," Connelly said, in a note to clients.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-fa ... 2019-12-05
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH
"White House tells Nadler it won't participate in impeachment hearing"
By Robert Schroeder
Published: Dec 6, 2019 4:43 p.m. ET
The White House on Friday slammed House Democrats' impeachment inquiry anew and made clear it won't participate in a Judiciary Committee hearing on Monday.
"House Democrats have wasted enough of America's time with this charade," White House counsel Pat Cipollone told Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler in a two-paragraph letter.
Cipollone called the inquiry "completely baseless," a day after President Donald Trump urged Democrats to speed up their process so the country can get "back to business."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/white ... latestnews
"White House tells Nadler it won't participate in impeachment hearing"
By Robert Schroeder
Published: Dec 6, 2019 4:43 p.m. ET
The White House on Friday slammed House Democrats' impeachment inquiry anew and made clear it won't participate in a Judiciary Committee hearing on Monday.
"House Democrats have wasted enough of America's time with this charade," White House counsel Pat Cipollone told Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler in a two-paragraph letter.
Cipollone called the inquiry "completely baseless," a day after President Donald Trump urged Democrats to speed up their process so the country can get "back to business."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/white ... latestnews
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH Bond Report
"U.S. government bond yields end higher after big gains in new jobs"
By Mark DeCambre and Joy Wiltermuth
Published: Dec 6, 2019 4:26 p.m. ET
U.S. Treasury yields settled higher Friday following a upbeat jobs report that enticed investors into riskier assets and brushed back fears of a looming U.S. recession.
The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, the biggest monthly gain since January, according to Labor Department data.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast 180,000 new jobs last month, but employment rebounded strongly as employees returned to work following a major General Motors Co. strike.
On top of that, the government revised the increase in new jobs in October to 156,000 from 128,000 and September’s gain was raised to 193,000 from 180,000.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 4.7 basis points to 1.842%, its largest weekly rise since Nov. 8, while the 2-year Treasury note yield rose 3.7 basis points at 1.619%, its biggest rise in three weeks, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose 3.8 basis points to 2.284%, snapping a three week drift lower.
Rates on the benchmark 10-year note initially jumped 5.5 basis points to 1.850% on the heels of the surprisingly strong employment data, but pared some gains as traders digested the report.
Demand for haven gold also dropped following Friday’s strong jobs report, leaving the precious metal down 0.5% for the week.
U.S. stocks rallied sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 300 points, while helping to narrow its weekly loss to 0.13%, according to FactSet data.
The U.S. jobs report also showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, a 50-year low.
The average wage paid to American workers rose 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $28.29 an hour but the 12-month rate of hourly wage gains slipped to 3.1% from 3.2%.
Robust recent jobs growth could make the Fed less reluctant to change benchmark interest rates at next week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting.
“Overall, this positive report should provide no reason for the Federal Reserve to move away from a ‘hold’ stance towards future rate cuts,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at housing giant Fannie Mae, in prepared commentary.
But Duncan also pointed to a modest decline in residential construction jobs that suggests those hoping for “an acceleration of housing supply growth will be disappointed.”
Joseph Lavorgna, a Natixis chief economist, said unemployment still could fall to about 3%, but that a lot will hinge on support from the Fed.
“Monetary policymakers also have to be careful with the balance sheet, which is expanding again because of strains in the repo market,” Lavorgna wrote in a client note Friday.
“While the Fed’s current $60 billion per month in Treasury bill buying is set to conclude in March, FOMC members may need to extend these purchases.”
Also on Friday, U.S. consumer sentiment data showed a slight improvement for December, with the University of Michigan’s gauge rising to a preliminary 99.2 reading, from a final November reading of 96.8, and beating forecasts of 96.9.
U.S. household spending also picked up in October, to its second-highest monthly rate of the year, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday, fueling hope that a strong consumer can help extend the longest period of U.S. economic expansion on record.
Beyond economic reports, bond traders have been watching for progress toward a China-U. S. trade resolution, with positive signs helping to lift stocks, while also undercutting appetite for haven assets.
China’s State Council on Friday began the process of exempting some soybeans and pork imported from the U.S. from punitive tariffs, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said.
But the strong jobs report also emboldened some on Wall Street to suggest that Washington might now be less eager to strike a quick trade accord with Beijing.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-go ... latestnews
"U.S. government bond yields end higher after big gains in new jobs"
By Mark DeCambre and Joy Wiltermuth
Published: Dec 6, 2019 4:26 p.m. ET
U.S. Treasury yields settled higher Friday following a upbeat jobs report that enticed investors into riskier assets and brushed back fears of a looming U.S. recession.
The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in November, the biggest monthly gain since January, according to Labor Department data.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast 180,000 new jobs last month, but employment rebounded strongly as employees returned to work following a major General Motors Co. strike.
On top of that, the government revised the increase in new jobs in October to 156,000 from 128,000 and September’s gain was raised to 193,000 from 180,000.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 4.7 basis points to 1.842%, its largest weekly rise since Nov. 8, while the 2-year Treasury note yield rose 3.7 basis points at 1.619%, its biggest rise in three weeks, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose 3.8 basis points to 2.284%, snapping a three week drift lower.
Rates on the benchmark 10-year note initially jumped 5.5 basis points to 1.850% on the heels of the surprisingly strong employment data, but pared some gains as traders digested the report.
Demand for haven gold also dropped following Friday’s strong jobs report, leaving the precious metal down 0.5% for the week.
U.S. stocks rallied sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 300 points, while helping to narrow its weekly loss to 0.13%, according to FactSet data.
The U.S. jobs report also showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, a 50-year low.
The average wage paid to American workers rose 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $28.29 an hour but the 12-month rate of hourly wage gains slipped to 3.1% from 3.2%.
Robust recent jobs growth could make the Fed less reluctant to change benchmark interest rates at next week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting.
“Overall, this positive report should provide no reason for the Federal Reserve to move away from a ‘hold’ stance towards future rate cuts,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at housing giant Fannie Mae, in prepared commentary.
But Duncan also pointed to a modest decline in residential construction jobs that suggests those hoping for “an acceleration of housing supply growth will be disappointed.”
Joseph Lavorgna, a Natixis chief economist, said unemployment still could fall to about 3%, but that a lot will hinge on support from the Fed.
“Monetary policymakers also have to be careful with the balance sheet, which is expanding again because of strains in the repo market,” Lavorgna wrote in a client note Friday.
“While the Fed’s current $60 billion per month in Treasury bill buying is set to conclude in March, FOMC members may need to extend these purchases.”
Also on Friday, U.S. consumer sentiment data showed a slight improvement for December, with the University of Michigan’s gauge rising to a preliminary 99.2 reading, from a final November reading of 96.8, and beating forecasts of 96.9.
U.S. household spending also picked up in October, to its second-highest monthly rate of the year, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday, fueling hope that a strong consumer can help extend the longest period of U.S. economic expansion on record.
Beyond economic reports, bond traders have been watching for progress toward a China-U. S. trade resolution, with positive signs helping to lift stocks, while also undercutting appetite for haven assets.
China’s State Council on Friday began the process of exempting some soybeans and pork imported from the U.S. from punitive tariffs, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said.
But the strong jobs report also emboldened some on Wall Street to suggest that Washington might now be less eager to strike a quick trade accord with Beijing.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-go ... latestnews
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
MARKETWATCH
"October consumer credit expands at second strongest monthly rate this year"
By Greg Robb
Published: Dec 6, 2019 3:01 p.m. ET
The numbers:
Consumer borrowing accelerated in October by the second highest rate this year, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Total consumer credit increased $18.9 billion, up from $9.6 billion in the prior month.
That’s an annual growth rate of 5.5%, which was surpassed only by July’s 6.9% gain, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day promotion.
Economists had been expecting a $15 billion gain in October, according to Econoday.
What happened:
Revolving credit, like credit cards, rose at a 8.8% rate in October.
And credit-card use in September was also revised higher.
Nonrevolving credit, typically auto and student loans, rose 4.3% in October.
Nonrevolving credit is much less volatile than credit-card use.
The Fed’s data does not include mortgage loans.
Big picture:
Consumers remain the key to the economic outlook given the sluggish business spending.
Economists will be watching closely to see if the improvement in the labor markets in November coincided with increased spending.
The government will release retail sales data for November next Friday.
Economists at Credit Suisse are forecasting a solid 0.6% gain in retail sales after a several lackluster months.
Preliminary reports on holiday shopping have been optimistic.
Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, said early sales appear to be the strongest in six years.
Market reaction:
Stocks were up sharply Friday after the unexpectedly strong job data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up over 300 points in afternoon trading.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/octob ... 2019-12-06
"October consumer credit expands at second strongest monthly rate this year"
By Greg Robb
Published: Dec 6, 2019 3:01 p.m. ET
The numbers:
Consumer borrowing accelerated in October by the second highest rate this year, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Total consumer credit increased $18.9 billion, up from $9.6 billion in the prior month.
That’s an annual growth rate of 5.5%, which was surpassed only by July’s 6.9% gain, which was boosted by Amazon’s Prime Day promotion.
Economists had been expecting a $15 billion gain in October, according to Econoday.
What happened:
Revolving credit, like credit cards, rose at a 8.8% rate in October.
And credit-card use in September was also revised higher.
Nonrevolving credit, typically auto and student loans, rose 4.3% in October.
Nonrevolving credit is much less volatile than credit-card use.
The Fed’s data does not include mortgage loans.
Big picture:
Consumers remain the key to the economic outlook given the sluggish business spending.
Economists will be watching closely to see if the improvement in the labor markets in November coincided with increased spending.
The government will release retail sales data for November next Friday.
Economists at Credit Suisse are forecasting a solid 0.6% gain in retail sales after a several lackluster months.
Preliminary reports on holiday shopping have been optimistic.
Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, said early sales appear to be the strongest in six years.
Market reaction:
Stocks were up sharply Friday after the unexpectedly strong job data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up over 300 points in afternoon trading.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/octob ... 2019-12-06