OilPrice
"Bearish EIA Inventory Report Sends Oil Prices Lower"
By Irina Slav
Jan 22, 2021
Crude oil prices fell further today after the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory build of 4.4 million barrels for the week to January 15.
This compared with an inventory decline of 3.2 million barrels estimated by the EIA for the previous week.
In gasoline, the EIA reported an inventory fall of 300,000 barrels for the week to January 15, which compared with a 4.4-million-barrel build for the previous week.
Gasoline production averaged 8.9 million bpd last week, which compared with 7.5 million bpd in the first week of January.
In middle distillates, the EIA reported an inventory increase of 500,000 barrels for last week, compared with a 4.8-million-barrel build for the previous week.
Middle distillates production averaged 4.5 million bpd in the week to January 15.
This compared with 4.7 million bpd a week earlier.
U.S. refineries processed 14.8 million bpd last week, which compared with 14.7 million bpd a week earlier.
Facilities operated at an average 82 percent of their capacity.
Oil prices have been extra volatile this week as expectations of a fatter U.S. stimulus plan from the Biden administration clashed with concerns about the continuing pandemic and extended or renewed lockdowns.
News that Iran was ramping up its oil production in anticipation of the U.S. lifting sanctions, at the same time, made for a strong downward pressure on benchmarks, with both Brent crude and WTI down by more than 1 percent at the time of writing.
Reports of new lockdowns in China added to the pressure.
The International Energy Agency earlier this week added fuel to the concerns, revising down its oil demand outlook for this year by 300,000 bpd.
The authority said it expected demand to average 96.6 million bpd in 2021, after crashing by an all-time high of 8.8 million bpd in 2020 under the weight of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The agency was upbeat about the second half of the year, however, noting that mass vaccination should spur economic recovery, which will in turn boost oil prices.
Nothing is certain, however, as the WHO has meanwhile warned that vaccinations are not a silver bullet solution to the pandemic problem with is chief suggesting social distancing measures will likely stay in place despite vaccinations.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Lower.html
THE DAILY NEWS
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
RIGZONE
"Oil Prices Fall Amid Rising US Inventories"
by Bloomberg | Andres Guerra Luz
Friday, January 22, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- Oil declined the most in a week with rising U.S. crude stockpiles seen as an obstacle facing a market that is still recovering from a pandemic-induced demand slump.
Futures fell 1.6% to the lowest level in nearly two weeks in New York on Friday.
A U.S. government report showed domestic crude inventories increased for the first time since December, rising more than 4 million barrels last week.
However, the data also showed refiners processed the most crude since March, an encouraging sign.
“This is clearly a bearish number short-term,” said Quinn Kiley, a portfolio manager at Tortoise, a firm that manages roughly $8 billion in energy-related assets.
But the data “suggest demand has recovered a lot more than maybe people would have noticed.”
A stronger dollar on Friday also reduced the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.
Following crude’s strong start to the new year, prices have struggled to break out to new highs this month with restrictions in place to curb the spread of Covid-19.
Parts of Hong Kong are locking down and the U.K. prime minister is signaling restrictions may last for months, while New York’s governor said the state is on the verge of running out of Covid-19 vaccines.
“The oil market has thus far managed to shrug off the ongoing and strict lock-down conditions that persist throughout much of Europe,” Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank, said in a note.
“But the risk of renewed lockdowns in Asia will be extremely hard for the oil market to ignore.”
Prices
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery fell 86 cents to settle at $52.27 a barrel.
Prices were little changed on the week.
Brent for March settlement lost 69 cents to end the session at $55.41 a barrel.
Crude’s market structure has remained firm this week, with key timespreads for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude trading in a structure indicating supply tightness.
The nearest contract for WTI futures is trading at a premium to the following month, with the Energy Information Administration report showing stockpiles at the nation’s largest storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell the most since May.
Brent’s nearest timespread is also trading in a so-called backwardation structure.
Trafigura Group Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Weir told Bloomberg Television that oil prices will rise on the back of OPEC production cuts and a demand boost from a rebounding global economy.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note that the Biden administration’s initial steps, including a focus on fiscal spending and a likely delay in lifting sanctions on Iran, will be bullish for oil prices.
Refineries processed the most crude last week since March, when fuel demand weakened early on in the pandemic.
Processing a barrel of crude has become more profitable in recent months, with the combined refining margin for gasoline and diesel above $13 a barrel after struggling to hold above $10 a barrel during parts of the summer and fall of last year.
Other oil-market news
It may be the oil market’s worst-kept secret: millions of barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude, embargoed by the U.S., have been surreptitiously going to China.
Iran has started ramping up its oil production and expects to reach pre-sanctions levels in one to two months, Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia said.
Spending by the global oil industry outside the U.S. is poised to rebound later this year, according to its largest hired hands, the latest sign of growing confidence in the outlook for crude prices.
China’s Cnooc Ltd. plunged in Hong Kong after MSCI Inc. said it will delete the offshore oil giant from its gauges following the U.S. Commerce Department’s move to blacklist its parent company.
--With assistance from Sheela Tobben, Jeffrey Bair and Alex Longley.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 6-article/
"Oil Prices Fall Amid Rising US Inventories"
by Bloomberg | Andres Guerra Luz
Friday, January 22, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- Oil declined the most in a week with rising U.S. crude stockpiles seen as an obstacle facing a market that is still recovering from a pandemic-induced demand slump.
Futures fell 1.6% to the lowest level in nearly two weeks in New York on Friday.
A U.S. government report showed domestic crude inventories increased for the first time since December, rising more than 4 million barrels last week.
However, the data also showed refiners processed the most crude since March, an encouraging sign.
“This is clearly a bearish number short-term,” said Quinn Kiley, a portfolio manager at Tortoise, a firm that manages roughly $8 billion in energy-related assets.
But the data “suggest demand has recovered a lot more than maybe people would have noticed.”
A stronger dollar on Friday also reduced the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.
Following crude’s strong start to the new year, prices have struggled to break out to new highs this month with restrictions in place to curb the spread of Covid-19.
Parts of Hong Kong are locking down and the U.K. prime minister is signaling restrictions may last for months, while New York’s governor said the state is on the verge of running out of Covid-19 vaccines.
“The oil market has thus far managed to shrug off the ongoing and strict lock-down conditions that persist throughout much of Europe,” Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank, said in a note.
“But the risk of renewed lockdowns in Asia will be extremely hard for the oil market to ignore.”
Prices
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery fell 86 cents to settle at $52.27 a barrel.
Prices were little changed on the week.
Brent for March settlement lost 69 cents to end the session at $55.41 a barrel.
Crude’s market structure has remained firm this week, with key timespreads for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude trading in a structure indicating supply tightness.
The nearest contract for WTI futures is trading at a premium to the following month, with the Energy Information Administration report showing stockpiles at the nation’s largest storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell the most since May.
Brent’s nearest timespread is also trading in a so-called backwardation structure.
Trafigura Group Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Weir told Bloomberg Television that oil prices will rise on the back of OPEC production cuts and a demand boost from a rebounding global economy.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note that the Biden administration’s initial steps, including a focus on fiscal spending and a likely delay in lifting sanctions on Iran, will be bullish for oil prices.
Refineries processed the most crude last week since March, when fuel demand weakened early on in the pandemic.
Processing a barrel of crude has become more profitable in recent months, with the combined refining margin for gasoline and diesel above $13 a barrel after struggling to hold above $10 a barrel during parts of the summer and fall of last year.
Other oil-market news
It may be the oil market’s worst-kept secret: millions of barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude, embargoed by the U.S., have been surreptitiously going to China.
Iran has started ramping up its oil production and expects to reach pre-sanctions levels in one to two months, Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia said.
Spending by the global oil industry outside the U.S. is poised to rebound later this year, according to its largest hired hands, the latest sign of growing confidence in the outlook for crude prices.
China’s Cnooc Ltd. plunged in Hong Kong after MSCI Inc. said it will delete the offshore oil giant from its gauges following the U.S. Commerce Department’s move to blacklist its parent company.
--With assistance from Sheela Tobben, Jeffrey Bair and Alex Longley.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 6-article/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"10-year Treasury yield slips amid stimulus and coronavirus concerns"
Vicky McKeever @vmckeevercnbc
Published Fri, Jan 22 2021
Key Points
* Moderate Republican senators critiqued Biden’s stimulus plan, while another Democrat lawmaker said he would oppose another coronavirus relief check to Americans.
* Biden, who was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday, warned on Thursday that the U.S. would likely top 500,000 Covid-19 deaths in February.
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped on on Friday morning, as President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package faces opposition in Congress just a week after he announced the plan.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.086%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dipped to 1.847%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
The drop in Treasury yields came as moderate Republican senators critiqued Biden’s plan, while another Democrat lawmaker said he would oppose another coronavirus relief check to Americans.
The worsening coronavirus epidemic in the U.S. also continued to weigh on investors’ minds.
Biden, who was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday, warned on Thursday that the U.S. would likely top 500,000 Covid-19 deaths in February.
The U.S. labor market has continued to feel the effect of the coronavirus crisis, as seen in jobless claims data out Thursday.
The number of unemployment insurance claims made last week totaled 900,000.
However, this was below economist estimates of 925,000 and the previous week’s downwardly revised total of 926,000.
January purchasing managers’ index data from Markit and figures for existing home sales in December both beat expectations on Friday morning.
A weekly update on distillate, gasoline, crude oil and Cushing crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration is expected at 11 a.m. ET.
No auctions are due to be held on Friday.
— CNBC’s Thomas Franck, Jesse Pound and Jacob Pramuk contributed to this report.
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/us-bond ... ition.html
"10-year Treasury yield slips amid stimulus and coronavirus concerns"
Vicky McKeever @vmckeevercnbc
Published Fri, Jan 22 2021
Key Points
* Moderate Republican senators critiqued Biden’s stimulus plan, while another Democrat lawmaker said he would oppose another coronavirus relief check to Americans.
* Biden, who was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday, warned on Thursday that the U.S. would likely top 500,000 Covid-19 deaths in February.
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped on on Friday morning, as President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package faces opposition in Congress just a week after he announced the plan.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.086%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dipped to 1.847%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
The drop in Treasury yields came as moderate Republican senators critiqued Biden’s plan, while another Democrat lawmaker said he would oppose another coronavirus relief check to Americans.
The worsening coronavirus epidemic in the U.S. also continued to weigh on investors’ minds.
Biden, who was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday, warned on Thursday that the U.S. would likely top 500,000 Covid-19 deaths in February.
The U.S. labor market has continued to feel the effect of the coronavirus crisis, as seen in jobless claims data out Thursday.
The number of unemployment insurance claims made last week totaled 900,000.
However, this was below economist estimates of 925,000 and the previous week’s downwardly revised total of 926,000.
January purchasing managers’ index data from Markit and figures for existing home sales in December both beat expectations on Friday morning.
A weekly update on distillate, gasoline, crude oil and Cushing crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration is expected at 11 a.m. ET.
No auctions are due to be held on Friday.
— CNBC’s Thomas Franck, Jesse Pound and Jacob Pramuk contributed to this report.
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/us-bond ... ition.html
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"CDC quietly changes Covid vaccine guidance to OK mixing Pfizer and Moderna shots in ‘exceptional situations’"
Will Feuer @WillFOIA
Published Fri, Jan 22 2021
Key Points
* In rare circumstances, it’s OK for people to receive one shot of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine and one shot of Moderna’s vaccine at least 28 days apart, the CDC said in updated guidance.
* The agency says the two products are not interchangeable.
* The CDC acknowledged that it hadn’t yet studied whether its new recommendations would change the safety or effectiveness of either vaccine.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quietly changed its guidance on Covid-19 vaccine shots, saying it’s now OK to mix Pfizer’s and Moderna’s shots in “exceptional situations” and that it’s also fine to wait up to six weeks to get the second shot of either company’s two-dose immunization.
While Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines, which both use messenger RNA technology, were authorized to be given 21 and 28 days apart, respectively, the agency now says you can receive either shot so long as they are given at least 28 days apart, according to new guidance posted Thursday on its website.
Although “every effort” should be made to ensure a patient receives the same vaccine, in rare situations “any available mRNA COVID-19 vaccine may be administered at a minimum interval of 28 days between doses” — if supplies are limited or the patient doesn’t know which vaccine they originally received, the CDC’s new guidance says.
The agency says the two products are not interchangeable, and acknowledged that it hadn’t yet studied whether its new recommendations would change the safety or effectiveness of either vaccine.
But vaccine research specialists who spoke with CNBC said that the two immunizations are so similar in design that people shouldn’t be worried about the rare instances in which the doses will be mixed.
“The intent is not to suggest people do anything different, but provide clinicians with flexibility for exceptional circumstances,” Jason McDonald, a spokesman for CDC, said Friday in an email to CNBC.
The CDC said health-care providers should give patients a vaccination record card that tells them when they received their first shot and which kind of shot it was to help ensure that patients know which shot they ought to receive the second time.
The agency also recommends that providers enter the patient’s vaccination information into their medical records and the government’s immunization information system.
Ramon Lorenzo Redondo, a molecular virologist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine who reviewed the CDC’s updated guidance, said health-care providers should try to stick to the recommended schedule.
But, he added, there will be some “emergency situations” like the ones described by the CDC that might require switching of the shots.
While there’s no data on this and it’s certainly not the optimal route, he said, it’s unlikely to be damaging so it’s a reasonable protocol.
The CDC’s new guidance comes after public health authorities in the United Kingdom similarly updated their Covid-19 vaccine guidance earlier this month.
If the manufacturer of the first shot isn’t known or if a second dose of the shot a patient first received isn’t available, “it is reasonable” to substitute another shot, U.K. health officials say in their updated playbook.
It’s not the preferred course of action, but it is allowed.
John Moore, a vaccine researcher at Cornell University who has reviewed the new CDC guidance, said in a phone interview Friday with CNBC that the change “makes sense.”
He said the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are very similar and while it hasn’t been studied, there’s no immediately apparent reason to think that mixing doses would lower efficacy or reduce safety.
“The FDA and CDC are allowing mix and match."
"They’re not recommending it."
"I don’t think it’s something that will happen regularly, but I can’t imagine that there would be any harm to anyone by doing this and that of course is the first priority,” he said.
“These are unusual times."
"So in unusual times, you have to consider unusual changes to protocol.”
Moore, who specializes in HIV vaccine research, said it’s common to use experimental vaccines sequentially to research the effect on HIV.
He said it’s uncommon to do this outside of a research setting, but the country is currently in extraordinary circumstances.
“There’s no good reason to think that there would be a safety concern that is created in this situation and you would strongly expect the efficacy to be substantially unchanged,” he said.
Both companies require two doses to achieve maximum protection from the coronavirus.
While both shots should be administered according to the originally recommended guidelines, the CDC said the second dose of either companies’ vaccine could be delayed as long as six weeks if necessary.
The updated guidance comes as some cities and counties across the country are canceling vaccine appointments because they don’t have as many doses as they originally expected.
Wayne County, Michigan, for example, said last week it would prioritize making sure that people who got their first shot get their second shot on time.
But the county said it had to cancel almost 1,400 appointments for people to get their first shot.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are “extraordinarily similar,” Dr. Bill Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University, said in a phone interview, so there’s no reason to think that there would be any adverse reaction to mixing the vaccines.
It was important for the CDC to put out this guidance, Schaffner said, because the vaccine registry systems across the country, which are run by states, vary in quality.
So some information may be lost, leaving people unaware of which vaccine they received.
He added that some people might travel across state lines and receive their second dose in a different state, further complicating the matter.
“Although this mixing and matching, as we call it, has not been specifically studied, there’s no biological reason for this not to work and be justified,” he said.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, was asked Friday about the interval at which the two shots should be administered.
“The data that we have is on a two-dose vaccine at the recommended schedule, 21 or 28 days,” she said at a virtual event hosted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and National Public Radio.
“At this point we at CDC agree with what FDA has said and FDA has been very clear that we should be using the approved regimen.”
“It’s rooted solidly in the science and the available evidence, and to do something different than that would be not following the science and potentially not allowing us to really realize the full potential of these vaccines,” she said.
“So for now, from the CDC perspective, we think that it has to be two doses on the recommended schedule.”
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/cdc-cha ... al-si.html
"CDC quietly changes Covid vaccine guidance to OK mixing Pfizer and Moderna shots in ‘exceptional situations’"
Will Feuer @WillFOIA
Published Fri, Jan 22 2021
Key Points
* In rare circumstances, it’s OK for people to receive one shot of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine and one shot of Moderna’s vaccine at least 28 days apart, the CDC said in updated guidance.
* The agency says the two products are not interchangeable.
* The CDC acknowledged that it hadn’t yet studied whether its new recommendations would change the safety or effectiveness of either vaccine.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quietly changed its guidance on Covid-19 vaccine shots, saying it’s now OK to mix Pfizer’s and Moderna’s shots in “exceptional situations” and that it’s also fine to wait up to six weeks to get the second shot of either company’s two-dose immunization.
While Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines, which both use messenger RNA technology, were authorized to be given 21 and 28 days apart, respectively, the agency now says you can receive either shot so long as they are given at least 28 days apart, according to new guidance posted Thursday on its website.
Although “every effort” should be made to ensure a patient receives the same vaccine, in rare situations “any available mRNA COVID-19 vaccine may be administered at a minimum interval of 28 days between doses” — if supplies are limited or the patient doesn’t know which vaccine they originally received, the CDC’s new guidance says.
The agency says the two products are not interchangeable, and acknowledged that it hadn’t yet studied whether its new recommendations would change the safety or effectiveness of either vaccine.
But vaccine research specialists who spoke with CNBC said that the two immunizations are so similar in design that people shouldn’t be worried about the rare instances in which the doses will be mixed.
“The intent is not to suggest people do anything different, but provide clinicians with flexibility for exceptional circumstances,” Jason McDonald, a spokesman for CDC, said Friday in an email to CNBC.
The CDC said health-care providers should give patients a vaccination record card that tells them when they received their first shot and which kind of shot it was to help ensure that patients know which shot they ought to receive the second time.
The agency also recommends that providers enter the patient’s vaccination information into their medical records and the government’s immunization information system.
Ramon Lorenzo Redondo, a molecular virologist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine who reviewed the CDC’s updated guidance, said health-care providers should try to stick to the recommended schedule.
But, he added, there will be some “emergency situations” like the ones described by the CDC that might require switching of the shots.
While there’s no data on this and it’s certainly not the optimal route, he said, it’s unlikely to be damaging so it’s a reasonable protocol.
The CDC’s new guidance comes after public health authorities in the United Kingdom similarly updated their Covid-19 vaccine guidance earlier this month.
If the manufacturer of the first shot isn’t known or if a second dose of the shot a patient first received isn’t available, “it is reasonable” to substitute another shot, U.K. health officials say in their updated playbook.
It’s not the preferred course of action, but it is allowed.
John Moore, a vaccine researcher at Cornell University who has reviewed the new CDC guidance, said in a phone interview Friday with CNBC that the change “makes sense.”
He said the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are very similar and while it hasn’t been studied, there’s no immediately apparent reason to think that mixing doses would lower efficacy or reduce safety.
“The FDA and CDC are allowing mix and match."
"They’re not recommending it."
"I don’t think it’s something that will happen regularly, but I can’t imagine that there would be any harm to anyone by doing this and that of course is the first priority,” he said.
“These are unusual times."
"So in unusual times, you have to consider unusual changes to protocol.”
Moore, who specializes in HIV vaccine research, said it’s common to use experimental vaccines sequentially to research the effect on HIV.
He said it’s uncommon to do this outside of a research setting, but the country is currently in extraordinary circumstances.
“There’s no good reason to think that there would be a safety concern that is created in this situation and you would strongly expect the efficacy to be substantially unchanged,” he said.
Both companies require two doses to achieve maximum protection from the coronavirus.
While both shots should be administered according to the originally recommended guidelines, the CDC said the second dose of either companies’ vaccine could be delayed as long as six weeks if necessary.
The updated guidance comes as some cities and counties across the country are canceling vaccine appointments because they don’t have as many doses as they originally expected.
Wayne County, Michigan, for example, said last week it would prioritize making sure that people who got their first shot get their second shot on time.
But the county said it had to cancel almost 1,400 appointments for people to get their first shot.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are “extraordinarily similar,” Dr. Bill Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University, said in a phone interview, so there’s no reason to think that there would be any adverse reaction to mixing the vaccines.
It was important for the CDC to put out this guidance, Schaffner said, because the vaccine registry systems across the country, which are run by states, vary in quality.
So some information may be lost, leaving people unaware of which vaccine they received.
He added that some people might travel across state lines and receive their second dose in a different state, further complicating the matter.
“Although this mixing and matching, as we call it, has not been specifically studied, there’s no biological reason for this not to work and be justified,” he said.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, was asked Friday about the interval at which the two shots should be administered.
“The data that we have is on a two-dose vaccine at the recommended schedule, 21 or 28 days,” she said at a virtual event hosted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and National Public Radio.
“At this point we at CDC agree with what FDA has said and FDA has been very clear that we should be using the approved regimen.”
“It’s rooted solidly in the science and the available evidence, and to do something different than that would be not following the science and potentially not allowing us to really realize the full potential of these vaccines,” she said.
“So for now, from the CDC perspective, we think that it has to be two doses on the recommended schedule.”
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/cdc-cha ... al-si.html
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"TREASURIES-Yields dip, TIPS breakevens backpedal amid virus and stimulus concerns"
By Reuters Staff
January 22, 2021
Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower on Friday as the market benefited from a risk-off sentiment sparked in part by coronavirus concerns and a bumpy road ahead for President Joe Biden's massive economic rescue package.
Concerns about a drawn-out rollout of vaccines and growth recovery also punctured a sharp run-up in one of the important bond market gauges of inflation sentiment.
The benchmark 10-year yield was last down 2 basis points at 1.0872%.
Markets were experiencing a little more risk aversion that was pushing stocks lower while lifting Treasury prices and easing yields, according to Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco.
"The virus is more in the focal point."
"There's a lot of doubt whether the whole $1.9 trillion stimulus package is going to get through," she said, referring to some resistance in the U.S. Congress to Biden's plan to aid the virus-battered economy.
Expectations of another major round of stimulus getting through a Democrat-controlled White House and Congress had boosted Wall Street and propelled the 10-year Treasury yield earlier this month to its highest levels since March on worries of a supply deluge to finance federal spending.
A majority of economists in a Reuters poll said the Democratic president's plan will boost the economy significantly and they expect it to return to its pre-pandemic size within a year.
The Senate Finance Committee on Friday unanimously approved Janet Yellen's nomination as the first woman Treasury secretary, indicating that she will easily win full Senate approval.
The inflation breakeven rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) dropped after climbing to 2.182%, its highest level since May 2018, following Thursday's strong auction of $15 billion in the securities.
The TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.018%, still indicating the market expects inflation to average more than 2% a year for the next decade, above the current pace of inflation.
Paula Solanes, a senior portfolio manager at SVB Asset Management, said elevated inflation for an extended period of time will be a bit challenging in the near term.
“I do understand the demand for TIPS because eventually you are likely to experience or see more inflation, especially with the unprecedented amount of monetary stimulus and now fiscal stimulus,” Solanes said.
"I'm a little bit hesitant to factor in inflation in the next year to an over 2% clip at this point.”
Looking ahead to next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its first meeting of 2021.
Rupert said while potential tapering of Fed bond purchases, the virus, the new Biden administration, and other subjects were likely to be discussed, the central bank's end-of-meeting statement will be "uneventful."
"It will just be more of the same: 'We're in it for the long run. Rates are low. We'll do what's necessary,'" she said.
The coming week will also bring a burst of supply with record-large auctions of $60 billion of two-year notes on Monday, $61 billion of five-year notes on Tuesday and $62 billion of seven-year notes on Thursday.
A surge in U.S. manufacturing activity to its highest level in more than 13-1/2-years in early January showed bottlenecks in the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are driving up prices and signaling a rise in inflation in the months ahead.
Data firm IHS Markit said its flash U.S. manufacturing PMI accelerated to a reading of 59.1 in the first half of this month, the highest since May 2007, from 57.1 in December.
Economists had forecast the index slipping to 56.5 in early January.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was unchanged at 0.125%.
A closely watched part of the yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes was last down 2 basis points at 96.25 basis points.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2JX1NO
"TREASURIES-Yields dip, TIPS breakevens backpedal amid virus and stimulus concerns"
By Reuters Staff
January 22, 2021
Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower on Friday as the market benefited from a risk-off sentiment sparked in part by coronavirus concerns and a bumpy road ahead for President Joe Biden's massive economic rescue package.
Concerns about a drawn-out rollout of vaccines and growth recovery also punctured a sharp run-up in one of the important bond market gauges of inflation sentiment.
The benchmark 10-year yield was last down 2 basis points at 1.0872%.
Markets were experiencing a little more risk aversion that was pushing stocks lower while lifting Treasury prices and easing yields, according to Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco.
"The virus is more in the focal point."
"There's a lot of doubt whether the whole $1.9 trillion stimulus package is going to get through," she said, referring to some resistance in the U.S. Congress to Biden's plan to aid the virus-battered economy.
Expectations of another major round of stimulus getting through a Democrat-controlled White House and Congress had boosted Wall Street and propelled the 10-year Treasury yield earlier this month to its highest levels since March on worries of a supply deluge to finance federal spending.
A majority of economists in a Reuters poll said the Democratic president's plan will boost the economy significantly and they expect it to return to its pre-pandemic size within a year.
The Senate Finance Committee on Friday unanimously approved Janet Yellen's nomination as the first woman Treasury secretary, indicating that she will easily win full Senate approval.
The inflation breakeven rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) dropped after climbing to 2.182%, its highest level since May 2018, following Thursday's strong auction of $15 billion in the securities.
The TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.018%, still indicating the market expects inflation to average more than 2% a year for the next decade, above the current pace of inflation.
Paula Solanes, a senior portfolio manager at SVB Asset Management, said elevated inflation for an extended period of time will be a bit challenging in the near term.
“I do understand the demand for TIPS because eventually you are likely to experience or see more inflation, especially with the unprecedented amount of monetary stimulus and now fiscal stimulus,” Solanes said.
"I'm a little bit hesitant to factor in inflation in the next year to an over 2% clip at this point.”
Looking ahead to next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its first meeting of 2021.
Rupert said while potential tapering of Fed bond purchases, the virus, the new Biden administration, and other subjects were likely to be discussed, the central bank's end-of-meeting statement will be "uneventful."
"It will just be more of the same: 'We're in it for the long run. Rates are low. We'll do what's necessary,'" she said.
The coming week will also bring a burst of supply with record-large auctions of $60 billion of two-year notes on Monday, $61 billion of five-year notes on Tuesday and $62 billion of seven-year notes on Thursday.
A surge in U.S. manufacturing activity to its highest level in more than 13-1/2-years in early January showed bottlenecks in the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are driving up prices and signaling a rise in inflation in the months ahead.
Data firm IHS Markit said its flash U.S. manufacturing PMI accelerated to a reading of 59.1 in the first half of this month, the highest since May 2007, from 57.1 in December.
Economists had forecast the index slipping to 56.5 in early January.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was unchanged at 0.125%.
A closely watched part of the yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes was last down 2 basis points at 96.25 basis points.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2JX1NO
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Weak data, earnings drag stocks lower; oil falls"
By Rodrigo Campos
January 22, 2021
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A gauge of stocks across the world slipped from record highs on Friday and the dollar edged up against a basket of peers as weak economic data and underwhelming earnings drove investors to reverse some recent risky bets.
Oil prices fell to end the week little changed and the dollar index posted its largest weekly drop in five weeks.
Technology stocks weighed the most on the S&P 500, with IBM and Intel posting 10% and 9% declines, respectively, after underwhelming earnings.
Energy stocks also fell on Wall Street, alongside the price of crude.
With stock valuations nearing levels not seen in two decades, some market participants said new COVID-19 variants and hiccups in vaccine rollouts pose near-term risks for equities.
“If we’re forced to keep the economy closed and it takes longer than we want to get through immunizations and vaccinations for the coronavirus, that’s going to be a little rougher on the market than people apparently anticipated,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 179.03 points, or 0.57%, to 30,996.98, the S&P 500 lost 11.6 points, or 0.30%, to 3,841.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 12.15 points, or 0.09%, to 13,543.06.
The three main U.S. indexes closed higher for the week, with the Nasdaq up over 4%.
The recent gains have come in hand with expectations for a near $2 trillion stimulus package for the American economy.
On Friday, President Joe Biden said the U.S. economic crisis was deepening and that the government needs to take major action now to help struggling Americans.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.57% on Friday after a survey showed economic activity in the euro zone shrank markedly in January, with the services sector weighed by lockdown restrictions to contain the coronavirus pandemic.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.44%.
Emerging market stocks lost 0.94%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.85% lower, while Nikkei futures lost 0.23%.
The dollar index rose 0.14%, with the euro up 0.03% to $1.2166, while sterling was last trading at $1.3683, down 0.36% on the day.
The Japanese yen weakened 0.28% versus the greenback at 103.78 per dollar.
Overnight data from Japan showed that factory activity slipped into contraction in January and the services sector was more pessimistic as emergency measures to combat a COVID-19 resurgence hit sentiment.
In commodities, oil prices were weighed down by a build-up in U.S. crude inventories and by worries that new pandemic restrictions in China will curb fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil importer.
U.S. crude fell 1.94% to $52.10 per barrel and Brent was at $55.21, down 1.59% on the day.
“The pandemic seems to continue to expand into a second wave in China, with infections rising by the day and reaching again different regions such as Shanghai,” said Rystad Energy oil markets analyst Louise Dickson.
Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 6/32 in price to yield 1.0872%, from 1.107% late on Thursday.
Spot gold dropped 0.9% to $1,853.41 an ounce.
Silver fell 1.98% to $25.43.
Bitcoin last rose 9.06% to $33,610.83.
Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Echo Wang, Herbert Lash and Laura Sanicola in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Matthew Lewis
https://www.reuters.com/article/global- ... SL1N2JX2P7
"Weak data, earnings drag stocks lower; oil falls"
By Rodrigo Campos
January 22, 2021
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A gauge of stocks across the world slipped from record highs on Friday and the dollar edged up against a basket of peers as weak economic data and underwhelming earnings drove investors to reverse some recent risky bets.
Oil prices fell to end the week little changed and the dollar index posted its largest weekly drop in five weeks.
Technology stocks weighed the most on the S&P 500, with IBM and Intel posting 10% and 9% declines, respectively, after underwhelming earnings.
Energy stocks also fell on Wall Street, alongside the price of crude.
With stock valuations nearing levels not seen in two decades, some market participants said new COVID-19 variants and hiccups in vaccine rollouts pose near-term risks for equities.
“If we’re forced to keep the economy closed and it takes longer than we want to get through immunizations and vaccinations for the coronavirus, that’s going to be a little rougher on the market than people apparently anticipated,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 179.03 points, or 0.57%, to 30,996.98, the S&P 500 lost 11.6 points, or 0.30%, to 3,841.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 12.15 points, or 0.09%, to 13,543.06.
The three main U.S. indexes closed higher for the week, with the Nasdaq up over 4%.
The recent gains have come in hand with expectations for a near $2 trillion stimulus package for the American economy.
On Friday, President Joe Biden said the U.S. economic crisis was deepening and that the government needs to take major action now to help struggling Americans.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.57% on Friday after a survey showed economic activity in the euro zone shrank markedly in January, with the services sector weighed by lockdown restrictions to contain the coronavirus pandemic.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.44%.
Emerging market stocks lost 0.94%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.85% lower, while Nikkei futures lost 0.23%.
The dollar index rose 0.14%, with the euro up 0.03% to $1.2166, while sterling was last trading at $1.3683, down 0.36% on the day.
The Japanese yen weakened 0.28% versus the greenback at 103.78 per dollar.
Overnight data from Japan showed that factory activity slipped into contraction in January and the services sector was more pessimistic as emergency measures to combat a COVID-19 resurgence hit sentiment.
In commodities, oil prices were weighed down by a build-up in U.S. crude inventories and by worries that new pandemic restrictions in China will curb fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil importer.
U.S. crude fell 1.94% to $52.10 per barrel and Brent was at $55.21, down 1.59% on the day.
“The pandemic seems to continue to expand into a second wave in China, with infections rising by the day and reaching again different regions such as Shanghai,” said Rystad Energy oil markets analyst Louise Dickson.
Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 6/32 in price to yield 1.0872%, from 1.107% late on Thursday.
Spot gold dropped 0.9% to $1,853.41 an ounce.
Silver fell 1.98% to $25.43.
Bitcoin last rose 9.06% to $33,610.83.
Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Echo Wang, Herbert Lash and Laura Sanicola in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Matthew Lewis
https://www.reuters.com/article/global- ... SL1N2JX2P7
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
Resolution impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors.
Resolved, the Donald John Trump, President of the United States, is impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors and that the following article of impeachment be exhibited to the United States Senate:
Article of impeachment exhibited by the House of Representatives of the United States of America in the name of itself and of the people of the United States of America, against Donald John Trump, President of the United States of America, in maintenance and support of its impeachment against him for high crimes and misdemeanors.
ARTICLE 1: INCITEMENT OF INSURRECTION
The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives "shall have the sole Power of Impeachment" and that the President "shall be removed from Office on Impeachment, for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."
Further, section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution prohibits any person who has "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against" the United States from "hold[ing] and office ... under the United States.'
In his conduct while President of the United States — and in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, provide, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed — Donald John Trump engaged in high Crimes and Misdemeanors by inciting violence against the Government of the United States, in that:
On January 6, 2021, pursuant to the 12th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, the Vice President of the United States, the House of Representatives, and the Senate met at the United States Capitol for a Joint Session of Congress to count the votes of the Electoral College.
In the months preceding the Joint Session, President Trump repeatedly issued false statements asserting that the Presidential election results were the product of widespread fraud and should not be accepted by the American people or certified by State or Federal officials.
Shortly before the Joint Session commenced, President Trump, addressed a crowd at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C.
There, he reiterated false claims that "we won this election, and we won it by a landslide."
He also willfully made statements that, in context, encouraged — and foreseeably resulted in — lawless action at the Capitol, such as: "if you don't fight like hell you're not going to have a country anymore."
Thus incited by President Trump, members of the crowd he had addressed, in an attempt to, among other objectives, interfere with the Joint Session's solemn constitutional duty to certify the results of the 2020 Presidential election, unlawfully breached and vandalized the Capitol, injured and killed law enforcement personnel, menaced Members of Congress, the Vice President, and Congressional personnel, and engaged in other violent, deadly, destructive and seditious acts.
President Trump's conduct on January 6, 2021, followed his prior efforts to subvert and obstruct the certification of the results of the 2020 Presidential election.
Those prior efforts included a phone call on January 2, 2021, during which President Trump urged the secretary of state of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, to "find" enough votes to overturn the Georgia Presidential election results and threatened Secretary Raffensperger if he failed to do so.
In all this, President Trump gravely endangered the security of the United States and its institutions of Government.
He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government.
He thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.
Wherefore, Donald John Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national security, democracy, and the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law.
Donald John Trump thus warrants impeachment and trial, removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.
Resolved, the Donald John Trump, President of the United States, is impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors and that the following article of impeachment be exhibited to the United States Senate:
Article of impeachment exhibited by the House of Representatives of the United States of America in the name of itself and of the people of the United States of America, against Donald John Trump, President of the United States of America, in maintenance and support of its impeachment against him for high crimes and misdemeanors.
ARTICLE 1: INCITEMENT OF INSURRECTION
The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives "shall have the sole Power of Impeachment" and that the President "shall be removed from Office on Impeachment, for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."
Further, section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution prohibits any person who has "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against" the United States from "hold[ing] and office ... under the United States.'
In his conduct while President of the United States — and in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, provide, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed — Donald John Trump engaged in high Crimes and Misdemeanors by inciting violence against the Government of the United States, in that:
On January 6, 2021, pursuant to the 12th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, the Vice President of the United States, the House of Representatives, and the Senate met at the United States Capitol for a Joint Session of Congress to count the votes of the Electoral College.
In the months preceding the Joint Session, President Trump repeatedly issued false statements asserting that the Presidential election results were the product of widespread fraud and should not be accepted by the American people or certified by State or Federal officials.
Shortly before the Joint Session commenced, President Trump, addressed a crowd at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C.
There, he reiterated false claims that "we won this election, and we won it by a landslide."
He also willfully made statements that, in context, encouraged — and foreseeably resulted in — lawless action at the Capitol, such as: "if you don't fight like hell you're not going to have a country anymore."
Thus incited by President Trump, members of the crowd he had addressed, in an attempt to, among other objectives, interfere with the Joint Session's solemn constitutional duty to certify the results of the 2020 Presidential election, unlawfully breached and vandalized the Capitol, injured and killed law enforcement personnel, menaced Members of Congress, the Vice President, and Congressional personnel, and engaged in other violent, deadly, destructive and seditious acts.
President Trump's conduct on January 6, 2021, followed his prior efforts to subvert and obstruct the certification of the results of the 2020 Presidential election.
Those prior efforts included a phone call on January 2, 2021, during which President Trump urged the secretary of state of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, to "find" enough votes to overturn the Georgia Presidential election results and threatened Secretary Raffensperger if he failed to do so.
In all this, President Trump gravely endangered the security of the United States and its institutions of Government.
He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government.
He thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.
Wherefore, Donald John Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national security, democracy, and the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law.
Donald John Trump thus warrants impeachment and trial, removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
The Wall Street Journal
"No, You Can’t Try an Impeached Former President"
By Alan M. Dershowitz
Jan. 20, 2021 1:25 pm ET
Now that Donald Trump is a private citizen, the Senate should dismiss the article of impeachment against him for lack of jurisdiction.
The Constitution is clear: “The president . . . shall be removed from office on impeachment . . . and conviction” — not by the expiration of his term before the impeachment process is complete.
It also mandates that “judgment in cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal and disqualification“ — not or disqualification.
When the Constitution was written, several states allowed impeachment of former officials.
The Framers could easily have included that provision, but they didn’t.
They also explicitly chose to prohibit the British practice of trial by legislature— excepting only impeachment — and “bill of attainder,” any punitive legislative act against a specific person.
The courts have held that the punishments prohibited by the Bill of Attainder Clause include disqualification from holding office.
Moreover, the Constitution requires the chief justice to preside “when the president of the United States is tried.”
No former official has ever been convicted by the Senate, and only one has been impeached.
Secretary of War William W. Belknap was indisputably guilty of numerous impeachable offences, to which he confessed as he resigned his office hours before the House unanimously impeached him in 1876.
The Senate voted in favor of a procedural motion affirming its jurisdiction to try Belknap’s impeachment.
But two dozen senators who believed he was guilty voted to acquit on jurisdictional grounds.
A close vote nearly a century and a half ago doesn’t establish a binding precedent.
A more compelling precedent is the House’s decision not to impeach Richard Nixon.
After he left office in 1974 to avoid certain impeachment and conviction, there was no movement to continue the process.
Beyond the constitution, there are strong policy and historical reasons an incoming administration shouldn’t seek recriminations against its predecessor.
In some countries defeated former presidents and prime ministers are routinely prosecuted.
America has lived more in accordance with President Lincoln’s message to the soon-to-be-defeated Confederacy: “With Malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-you-can ... 1611167113
"No, You Can’t Try an Impeached Former President"
By Alan M. Dershowitz
Jan. 20, 2021 1:25 pm ET
Now that Donald Trump is a private citizen, the Senate should dismiss the article of impeachment against him for lack of jurisdiction.
The Constitution is clear: “The president . . . shall be removed from office on impeachment . . . and conviction” — not by the expiration of his term before the impeachment process is complete.
It also mandates that “judgment in cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal and disqualification“ — not or disqualification.
When the Constitution was written, several states allowed impeachment of former officials.
The Framers could easily have included that provision, but they didn’t.
They also explicitly chose to prohibit the British practice of trial by legislature— excepting only impeachment — and “bill of attainder,” any punitive legislative act against a specific person.
The courts have held that the punishments prohibited by the Bill of Attainder Clause include disqualification from holding office.
Moreover, the Constitution requires the chief justice to preside “when the president of the United States is tried.”
No former official has ever been convicted by the Senate, and only one has been impeached.
Secretary of War William W. Belknap was indisputably guilty of numerous impeachable offences, to which he confessed as he resigned his office hours before the House unanimously impeached him in 1876.
The Senate voted in favor of a procedural motion affirming its jurisdiction to try Belknap’s impeachment.
But two dozen senators who believed he was guilty voted to acquit on jurisdictional grounds.
A close vote nearly a century and a half ago doesn’t establish a binding precedent.
A more compelling precedent is the House’s decision not to impeach Richard Nixon.
After he left office in 1974 to avoid certain impeachment and conviction, there was no movement to continue the process.
Beyond the constitution, there are strong policy and historical reasons an incoming administration shouldn’t seek recriminations against its predecessor.
In some countries defeated former presidents and prime ministers are routinely prosecuted.
America has lived more in accordance with President Lincoln’s message to the soon-to-be-defeated Confederacy: “With Malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-you-can ... 1611167113
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
RIGZONE
"Oil Prices Close Higher on Shrinking Supply Forecast"
by Bloomberg | Andres Guerra Luz & Alex Longley
Monday, January 25, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- Oil gained the most in about a week with expectations for tighter global supply offsetting concerns that a bumpy Covid-19 vaccine rollout will further blunt demand.
Futures closed nearly 1% higher after fluctuating between gains and losses in Monday’s session.
Key timespreads for both U.S. and global benchmark crude futures are in a structure indicating shrinking supplies.
Iraq pledged to cut output in January and February to compensate for pumping more than its OPEC+ quota last year, and Libyan guards halted some crude exports after a pay dispute.
At the same time, Russian seaborne exports of its flagship Urals grade will fall by about 20% in February.
The supply signals from OPEC+ producers “is very important for providing the belief that we’re going to see much higher prices,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.
Despite expectations for crude supply reductions to spur declines in global inventories, the demand outlook remains precarious as governments toughen lockdown restrictions and vaccine distribution efforts face logistical obstacles.
U.S. infectious-disease chief Anthony Fauci said he’s worried about delays to the second dose of Covid-19 vaccinations as governments stretch intervals to speed immunizations.
Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers still have yet to agree on an additional fiscal stimulus package, which could provide a boost to oil demand.
“People are worried about the pandemic and potentially risks associated with fiscal stimulus,” said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities.
“Increasingly, we’re hesitant to say that Biden’s going to pass a $1.9 trillion expenditure plan."
"Clearly, that doesn’t bode well for getting unusually strong demand for oil.”
Prices
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose 50 cents to settle at $52.77 a barrel.
Brent for March settlement gained 47 cents to end the session at $55.88 a barrel.
Oil prices will likely face a “slow grind higher” rather than a sharp jump in the near term as physical oil markets in the Atlantic Basin are softer than last month, RBC analysts including Michael Tran and Helima Croft wrote in a report.
“The physical market appears to be absorbing any material demand softness from lockdowns in stride, for now,” the report said.
“However, the physical market is far from tight and additional barrels are not being bid in size, even as the Saudi cut propagates to the consumer base for next month.”
Supply curtailments are strengthening the market’s structure, with Iraq set to pump 3.6 million barrels a day in January and February, the lowest level since early 2015.
Brent’s prompt timespread was 20 cents a barrel in backwardation -- a bullish market formation where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones.
That’s the strongest the spread has been since February.
WTI’s prompt spread is at the strongest since May.
Other oil-market news:
The global energy mix “is unlikely to change significantly” in coming decades, as “hydrocarbons will be in demand for a long period of time,” Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said at an online meeting with students.
Jacques Erni has exited the role of chief financial officer at embattled commodities trader Noble Group after less than a year in the position.
Existing pipelines and unutilized rail capacity is sufficient for 2021 Western Canadian production growth of 2% over pre-Covid levels, assuming “controlled inventory levels,” Citi analysts said in a note.
Even though U.S. oil drillers have pledged self-restraint as crude prices recover, analysts at Citigroup Inc. say they should step up investment in the nation’s top shale play.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 8-article/
"Oil Prices Close Higher on Shrinking Supply Forecast"
by Bloomberg | Andres Guerra Luz & Alex Longley
Monday, January 25, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- Oil gained the most in about a week with expectations for tighter global supply offsetting concerns that a bumpy Covid-19 vaccine rollout will further blunt demand.
Futures closed nearly 1% higher after fluctuating between gains and losses in Monday’s session.
Key timespreads for both U.S. and global benchmark crude futures are in a structure indicating shrinking supplies.
Iraq pledged to cut output in January and February to compensate for pumping more than its OPEC+ quota last year, and Libyan guards halted some crude exports after a pay dispute.
At the same time, Russian seaborne exports of its flagship Urals grade will fall by about 20% in February.
The supply signals from OPEC+ producers “is very important for providing the belief that we’re going to see much higher prices,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.
Despite expectations for crude supply reductions to spur declines in global inventories, the demand outlook remains precarious as governments toughen lockdown restrictions and vaccine distribution efforts face logistical obstacles.
U.S. infectious-disease chief Anthony Fauci said he’s worried about delays to the second dose of Covid-19 vaccinations as governments stretch intervals to speed immunizations.
Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers still have yet to agree on an additional fiscal stimulus package, which could provide a boost to oil demand.
“People are worried about the pandemic and potentially risks associated with fiscal stimulus,” said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities.
“Increasingly, we’re hesitant to say that Biden’s going to pass a $1.9 trillion expenditure plan."
"Clearly, that doesn’t bode well for getting unusually strong demand for oil.”
Prices
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose 50 cents to settle at $52.77 a barrel.
Brent for March settlement gained 47 cents to end the session at $55.88 a barrel.
Oil prices will likely face a “slow grind higher” rather than a sharp jump in the near term as physical oil markets in the Atlantic Basin are softer than last month, RBC analysts including Michael Tran and Helima Croft wrote in a report.
“The physical market appears to be absorbing any material demand softness from lockdowns in stride, for now,” the report said.
“However, the physical market is far from tight and additional barrels are not being bid in size, even as the Saudi cut propagates to the consumer base for next month.”
Supply curtailments are strengthening the market’s structure, with Iraq set to pump 3.6 million barrels a day in January and February, the lowest level since early 2015.
Brent’s prompt timespread was 20 cents a barrel in backwardation -- a bullish market formation where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones.
That’s the strongest the spread has been since February.
WTI’s prompt spread is at the strongest since May.
Other oil-market news:
The global energy mix “is unlikely to change significantly” in coming decades, as “hydrocarbons will be in demand for a long period of time,” Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said at an online meeting with students.
Jacques Erni has exited the role of chief financial officer at embattled commodities trader Noble Group after less than a year in the position.
Existing pipelines and unutilized rail capacity is sufficient for 2021 Western Canadian production growth of 2% over pre-Covid levels, assuming “controlled inventory levels,” Citi analysts said in a note.
Even though U.S. oil drillers have pledged self-restraint as crude prices recover, analysts at Citigroup Inc. say they should step up investment in the nation’s top shale play.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 8-article/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"Treasury yields fall as investors eye stimulus plans"
Maggie Fitzgerald @mkmfitzgerald Vicky McKeever @vmckeevercnbc
Published Mon, Jan 25 2021
U.S. Treasury yields slumped on Monday, as traders kept an eye on President Joe Biden’s efforts to push through his proposed $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.036% around 4:15 p.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped to 1.796%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Treasury yields dropped as Biden’s coronavirus relief spending package faces opposition from many congressional Republicans.
The fiscal aid includes direct checks to millions of Americans, aid to state and local governments, funding for Covid vaccines and testing, a boost to the minimum wage and enhanced unemployment benefits, among other things.
— CNBC’s Pippa Stevens contributed to this report.
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/us-bond ... plans.html
"Treasury yields fall as investors eye stimulus plans"
Maggie Fitzgerald @mkmfitzgerald Vicky McKeever @vmckeevercnbc
Published Mon, Jan 25 2021
U.S. Treasury yields slumped on Monday, as traders kept an eye on President Joe Biden’s efforts to push through his proposed $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.036% around 4:15 p.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped to 1.796%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Treasury yields dropped as Biden’s coronavirus relief spending package faces opposition from many congressional Republicans.
The fiscal aid includes direct checks to millions of Americans, aid to state and local governments, funding for Covid vaccines and testing, a boost to the minimum wage and enhanced unemployment benefits, among other things.
— CNBC’s Pippa Stevens contributed to this report.
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/us-bond ... plans.html