THE DAILY NEWS

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH Market Snapshot

"Dow ends lower for third day as investors eye rising coronavirus cases and lack of fiscal stimulus"


By Mark DeCambre, and Sunny Oh

Last Updated: Oct. 15, 2020 at 4:31 p.m. ET
First Published: Oct. 15, 2020 at 7:44 a.m. ET

U.S. stocks finished well off session lows but ended with losses for a third day on Thursday, as rising coronavirus cases, especially in Europe, resulted in new restrictions on businesses and travel.

Investor sentiment also took a hit following a rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims and a lack of progress in Congress on another fiscal stimulus bill which is now unlikely until after the November elections.

How are stock benchmarks performing?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 19.80 points, or 0.1%, to 28,494.2, but well off its intraday nadir of 28,181.54; the S&P 500 index was down 5.33 points to end at 3,483.34, a drop of 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slumped by 0.5%, a fall of 54.86 points to 11,713.8.

The small-cap Russell 2000, however, gained 1.1% to end at 1,638.88.

On Wednesday, the Dow slumped 165.81 points, 0.6%, to finish at 28,514.00, while the S&P 500 index fell 23.26 points, 0.7%, to end at 3,488.67.

The Nasdaq dropped 95.17 points, or 0.8%, to close at 11,768.73.

What’s driving the market?

Investors wrestled with concerns about rising numbers of COVID-19 cases and fading hopes for any further fiscal stimulus from Congress before the November U.S. elections.

“It was only a matter of time before investors are no longer able to ignore the sharp increase in new COVID-19 cases and new restrictions being introduced throughout Europe,” said Milan Cutkovic, a market analyst at Axi, in a note.

France joined the U.K. in imposing fresh social restrictions, including declaring a state of emergency and a nightly curfew in a number of metropolitan regions across the country.

The U.K. has been tightening social restrictions also to help limit the spread of the outbreak.

Investors have also been discouraged by a lack of progress in negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on an additional round of fiscal stimulus to help stem economic hardship from the COVID-19 pandemic.

While Mnuchin and Pelosi talks continue, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reiterated Thursday he won’t put a large fiscal stimulus package on the Senate floor, leaving a wide and public gap between between himself and President Donald Trump on the issue.

Meanwhile, investors have been poring over corporate earnings, with the last of the major Wall Street banks, Morgan Stanley posting a third-quarter profit of $2.7 billion, or $1.66 per share, besting consensus estimates for $1.28 by Refinitiv and producing revenue of $11.7 billion that were 16% better than a year ago.

Morgan Stanley’s report comes after Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup and Wells Fargo & Co. all reported mixed results.

Dow component Walgreens Boots Alliance, meanwhile, also reporting better-than-expected results.

The Nasdaq index was also depressed by a Goldman Sachs note cutting its recommendation on technology stocks to neutral, saying likely policy shifts and slowing economic growth may temporarily cap the outperformance of the sector.

In economic reports, U.S. weekly jobless claims data, a closely watched high-frequency date point in the pandemic era, climbed 53,000 to 898,000, representing the highest level since Aug. 22.

“The labor market did a good job recouping more than half of the job losses from March."

"But what the continued elevation of jobless claims and other labor market data tells us is that recouping that second half is going to be a lot harder,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, in an interview.

In other data, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s factory index jumped to 32.3 in October well above consensus forecast of 13.5.

The index hit 15 in September.

Separately, the Empire State manufacturing index fell to 10.5 in October from 17 in prior month.

Later in the day, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kaskari, will speak about the U.S. economic outlook to the New York University Stern School at 5 p.m. Eastern.

Finally, both President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Democratic contender for the presidency in November’s elections, will both hold separate “town hall” sessions on competing television channels at 8 p.m. Eastern Thursday night, after the scheduled second debate was canceled.

Which stocks are in focus?

Shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. jumped 4.8% Thursday, after the drugstore services company reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit that fell less than expected, while revenue rose above forecasts.

YogaWorks Inc., the chain of studios and international yoga schools, has filed for chapter 11.

Shares tumbled 22%.

Shares of Roku Inc. fell 2.8% Thursday, to extend their pullback from a record close earlier this week, after KeyBanc Capital analyst Justin Patterson backed away from his longtime bullish stance, citing concerns over valuation.

Tiffany & Co. offered guidance for the fourth quarter on Thursday, saying it expects a mid-single digit percentage decline in sales compared with the year-earlier period and a mid-single digit percentage increase in operating earnings.

The stock was up 2.3%.

Shares of Tesla Inc. dropped 2.7% Thursday, putting them on track to snap a 6-day win streak, even as Baird analyst Ben Kallo boosted his price target by 25%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. stock lost nearly 21% Thursday after the biotech company said it would stop developing a drug to treat an inherited protein deficiency that can cause lung and liver disease.

Fastly Inc. shares plummeted 27% after the software company said that its largest customer, TikTok parent Bytedance Inc., didn’t use its product as much as expected amid a threatened ban in the U.S.

Wells Fargo & Co. fired more than 100 employees for allegedly defrauding a federal pandemic-relief program.

Shares declined 1.3% Thursday.

How are other assets performing?

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was up around a single basis point to 0.73%, after the stock market’s midday reversal helped to roll back earlier bond-market gains.

Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.

In global equities, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 2.1% lower and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%.

In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 Europe fell 2.1% and London’s FTSE 100 slumped 1.7%.

Gold prices tacked on $1.60, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,908.90 an ounce.

Oil futures tanked, pushing the U.S. benchmark down 0.2% to settle at $40.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The greenback was 0.5% higher, based on the ICE U.S. Dollar Index.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... od=markets

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH Bond Report

"U.S. Treasury yields extend weekly slide ahead of data deluge"


By Sunny Oh

Published: Oct. 15, 2020 at 8:30 a.m. ET

U.S. Treasury yields fell in early Thursday trade as investors awaited a rush of economic data amid a souring of sentiment over the spread of COVID-19 in Europe.

What are Treasurys doing?

The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 2.1 basis points to 0.701%, down around 7 basis points from where the maturity ended last Friday, while the 2-year note rate edged 0.4 basis point down to 0.135%.

The 30-year bond yield slid 3.1 basis points to 1.468%.

Bond prices move inversely to yields.

What’s driving Treasurys?

Investors fretted over the possibility of new lockdown measures after Paris and London have both instituted limits to social activity in a bid to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

Fresh restrictions are likely to dampen the budding recovery across the eurozone, weighing on U.S. and European equity markets to the benefit of Treasurys.

Analysts will have plenty of data to sift through in the morning.

Data on new applications for unemployment benefits during the latest weekly period ending in Oct. 10 are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with MarketWatch-polled analysts penciling in a drop of 15,000 to 825,000.

Surveys of manufacturing activity in New York state and the region around Philadelphia along with the September import price index are all set for release at the same time as jobless claims.

Several senior Federal Reserve officials will come out and speak on Thursday, including Fed vice chairman for supervision Randal Quarles.

On Wednesday, Quarles said he was worried the Treasury market had become so large that the Fed’s presence would be needed to ensure its normal and orderly functioning.

What did market participants say?

“Over most of Europe Covid-19 cases continued to rise sharply…with new recorded highs being registered in many countries including those that used to experience lower numbers such as Germany,” said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-t ... 1602765019

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH

"Philadelphia Fed index outperforms NY Empire State survey in October"


By Greg Robb

Published: Oct. 15, 2020 at 10:42 a.m. ET

The numbers:

Two regional gauges of U.S. manufacturing sentiment moved in different directions in October, according to data released Thursday.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index surged to a reading of 32.3 in October from 15 in September.

Economists had expected a reading of 13.5.

This is the highest reading since the pandemic.

The Empire State Index, meanwhile slowed to a reading of 10.5 in October from 17 in September, the New York Fed said.

Economists had expected a reading of 14.5, according to Econoday.

Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions.

What happened:

The sharp improvement in Philadelphia saw new orders and shipments making notable gains.

In the New York region, activity grew modestly.

New orders and shipments continued to increase while unfilled orders and inventories continued to decline.

Optimism in New York fell 8 points to 32.8

Big picture:

Manufacturing has been a bright spot in the economy.

Economists see the sector gaining because it has been able to adopt protections for workers against the coronavirus.

The global environment also looks a little better, in part from the pickup of the Chinese economy.

The Empire State and Philadelphia Fed indexes are the first of several regional manufacturing gauges to be released for the month.

They can frequently be volatile from month to month, but taken together they present one of the timeliest reads on a critically cyclical sector.

The national ISM manufacturing index slipped to 55.4% in September from 56% in the prior month.

The ISM index will be released on Nov. 2.

What are they saying?

“Overall, after a slow restart in manufacturing following the shutdowns for the novel coronavirus, the sector is growing moderately and, in most sectors, is likely approaching or exceeding pre-pandemic levels,” said T.J. Connelly, hear of research at Contingent Macro.

Market reaction:

U.S. equity benchmarks were trading sharply lower on Thursday as new global restrictions were imposed to combat rising coronavirus cases.

The Dow Jones Industrial was down 187 points in morning trading.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/phill ... latestnews

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH

"Jobless claims climb 53,000 to 7-week high of 898,000, point to more labor-market woes"


By Jeffry Bartash

Published: Oct. 15, 2020 at 12:25 p.m. ET

The numbers:

The number of Americans who applied for jobless benefits in early October shot up to the highest level in seven weeks, possibly a sign that fresh outbreaks of the coronavirus in many states have hurt employment again.

Initial jobless claims filed through state programs jumped by 53,000 to 898,000 in the week ended Oct. 10 from a revised 845,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast new claims to fall to 825,000.

An unadjusted 372,891 people also filed new claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Act, the federal law that temporarily made self-employed workers eligible for benefits for the first time.

That put the number of actual or unadjusted new claims at an estimated at 1.26 million, a touch lower than in the prior week.

There’s a big caveat, however.

The number of new claims in California was frozen at 226,179 for the third week in a row.

The state stopped updating its figures three weeks ago after launching an effort to whittle down a large backlog, eradicate duplicate claims and weed out fraud.

The state began accepting new jobless applications last week after a two-week pause, but it still isn’t reporting its totals to the U.S. Labor Department.

California typically accounts for almost 20% of all new jobless claims in the country, but it’s run closer to 30% during the coronavirus pandemic.

Stripping out California’s estimate, the number of unadjusted jobless claims in the other states rose by 76,670 — a worrisome sign.

What happened:

New jobless claims rose the most in the states of Indiana, Illinois and Massachusetts, where coronavirus cases have increased again.

They declined the most in Michigan.

Continuing jobless claims filed through state programs, meanwhile, fell by 1.17 million to a seasonally adjusted 10 million in the week ended Oct 3.

That’s also the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic, but it’s unclear if the decline last week reflected more people going back to work or if their unemployment benefits expired.

Altogether, the number of people reportedly getting benefits through eight state and federal programs declined by 215,270 to an unadjusted 25.29 million as of Sept. 26, the latest data available.

Some economists question the accuracy of the estimate given that other government data shows the pool of unemployed is about half that size.

New applications for unemployment benefits have tumbled from a pandemic peak of 6.9 million in late March, but the rate of decline has slowed sharply and perhaps even come to a halt in a potentially troubling sign.

Big picture:

The problems in California have made it harder to determine how many people are returning to work or getting laid off from their jobs.

One thing is clear, though: The labor market is not improving as rapidly as it was during the late spring and early summer — and it might even be deteriorating again.

About half of the more than 22 million jobs lost in the first few months of the pandemic have been recovered, but that still leaves millions out of work.

Many economists say the government has to revive a temporary federal unemployment bonus to help families get through the crisis and keep the economic recovery intact.

Yet Washington is unlikely to pass another aid bill until after the election on Nov. 3.

What they are saying?

“The latest figures on new workers claiming unemployment insurance cast a dark cloud over the nation’s slow economic recovery,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor Economic Research.

“The number of new claims last week is more than four times higher than the pace of workers filing for unemployment a year ago — a sign that COVID-19 continues to deal heavy blows to the nation’s labor market.”

Market reaction:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell in Thursday trades after a handful of disappointing reports on the economy and the failure in the U.S. and Europe to approve more stimulus.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... od=markets

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH Market Snapshot

"Dow adds 100 points, stocks manage weekly gains as retail sales, consumer sentiment rise"


By Mark DeCambre, and Andrea Riquier

Last Updated: Oct. 16, 2020 at 4:22 p.m. ET
First Published: Oct. 16, 2020 at 7:52 a.m. ET

U.S. stock benchmarks closed mostly higher Friday, with gains partly attributed to better-than-expected retail sales in September, along with an improvement in consumer sentiment, relieving some fears about a slow economic recovery.

Wall Street sentiment was also supported by news that a Pfizer vaccine might be submitted for approval by next month, even as the spread of the viral outbreak has forced some restrictions on business and travel in major European cities.

How did stock benchmarks perform?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 112.11 points, or 0.4%, to close at 28,606.31; the S&P 500 index tacked on 0.47 points to reach 3,483.81; and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 42.32 points, or 0.4%, to settle at 11,671.56, after earlier hitting a peak at 11,827.42.

On Thursday, the Dow fell 19.80 points, or 0.1%, to 28,494.2, but well off its intraday nadir of 28,181.54; the S&P 500 index finished down 5.33 points to end at 3,483.34, a drop of 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slumped by 0.5%, a fall of 54.86 points to 11,713.8.

For the week, the Dow eked out a 0.1% gain, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8%.

What drove the market?

The stock market on Friday snapped a three-session skid to end a choppy week, with a report on U.S. retail sales suggesting consumer spending is more resilient than expected in the midst of the worst pandemic in more than a century.

U.S. retail sales in September rose 1.9%, compared to consensus estimates from economists polled by Dow Jones for 0.7%, underscoring that consumers, the lynchpin of economic health, continue to buy amid the viral outbreak that has hobbled the economy for months.

“Amid a stagnating labor market, the jump in retail sales this month suggests consumer strength is pretty robust — with the highest number we’ve seen in three months,” wrote Mike Loewengart, director investment strategy at E-Trade Financial, in a Friday note.

“The momentum on that front could be a positive for the market as investors look for signs of recovery."

"That said, it remains to be seen if this is an outlier or trend,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, Pfizer Inc.’s announcement that it could have a late-stage experimental coronavirus vaccine ready for emergency-use authorization by late November — if it proves successful in trials — provided another lift to markets that have been dogged this week by reports of the spread of the viral pandemic inside and outside the U.S.

More than half-a-dozen states, including Ohio and Michigan, reported record numbers of new coronavirus cases Thursday, pushing the U.S.’s single-day total above 60,000 for the first time in over two months, the Wall Street Journal reported.

White House and Democratic negotiators agreed to include a national coronavirus-testing strategy in relief legislation, but Senate approval for any large-scale stimulus is unlikely, even as President Donald Trump pushed Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to “go higher“ and push forward a more expansive package than the White House’s current $1.8 trillion offer.

Pre-election fiscal stimulus would be “a nice-to-have,” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.

“I don’t know if it’s a need-to-have."

"Without additional stimulus, we will continue to make progress but it will be a little more uneven and lumpy. “

There are also many possible outcomes from the upcoming November election, Stritch said in an interview.

“It’s hard to make big bets ahead of that.”

Even as some market participants have rotated toward value stocks and cyclical trades, “We have yet to embrace the cyclical part of the story,” Stritch said.

“We want to make that move but we just have to see that consistency."

"We’re in the wait and see camp.”

In other economic reports, a reading on U.S. industrial production came in weaker than expected, dropping 0.6% in September, compared against an expected increase based on average economist estimates for a rise of 0.5%.

Some took that as as sign of weakness in the economy despite the strong retail sales report.

“Industrial output came in well below expectations, one of the first real signs that the recovery is losing momentum under the weight of the ongoing health crisis and fading support from fiscal relief,” wrote economists at Oxford Economics in a Friday report after the data.

Meanwhile, a preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index edged up to 81.2 this month from a revised 80.4 in September, the University of Michigan said Friday.

Which stocks were in focus?

Shares of Boeing Co. were up 1.9% after the European Union’s aviation regulator said the 737 Max is safe enough to fly again in Europe by the end of 2020.

Shares of General Electric Co. gained 6%, as a maker of Boeing engines, giving it its highest close since June.

Shares of Hertz Global Holdings Inc. soared over 140% Friday, after the bankrupt rental car company said it secured $1.65 billion in debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing.

Shares of Schlumberger Ltd. dropped 8.9% after the oil services company reported a third-quarter adjusted profit that topped expectations but revenue that fell more than forecast, hurt by a miss by its drilling business.

First Citizens BancShares Inc. and CIT Group Inc. said Friday they have agreed to an all-stock merger of equals that will create the 19th biggest bank in the U.S. by assets.

Shares of First Citizens were up more than 11% and CIT’s gained nearly 27%.

Aligos Therapeutics Inc.’s initial public offering priced late Thursday at $15 a share, in the middle of the expected range of between $14 and $16 a share.

How did other assets perform?

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was up around one basis point to 0.739% after the strong retail sales report.

Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.

In global equities, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 0.9% higher and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.4%, China’s Shanghai Composite Index finished up 0.1%.

In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 Europe closed up 1.3% and London’s FTSE 100 gained 1.5%.

Gold prices settled lower, down 0.1% at $1,906.40 an ounce.

It was the first weekly decline for the precious metal in three weeks.

Oil futures fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery, down 8 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $40.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The greenback was 0.2% lower on Friday, based on the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, but was on track for a weekly gain of 0.7%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... od=markets

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH

"Oil ends lower on demand concerns, but prices score a gain on the week"


By Myra P. Saefong, and William Watts

Last Updated: Oct. 16, 2020 at 3:31 p.m. ET
First Published: Oct. 16, 2020 at 8:20 a.m. ET

Oil futures slipped a bit on Friday as rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe heightened worries about demand for crude, but prices finished higher for the week, partly due to assurances from OPEC+ that it remains committed to production cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together known as OPEC+, seem “to have comforted markets that they are leading the oil market to balance,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a market update.

Oil prices found support for the week after Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly reiterated their commitment to the OPEC+ production cut agreement.

That raised expectations that “the alliance might take further action to either address some of its members’ undercompliance or re-evaluate its plan to boost production again from January,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

“If these hopes prove futile then prices may be in danger again next week after the OPEC+ meeting.”

The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee, or JMMC, which monitors compliance with production cuts, is scheduled to meet on Monday.

West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery fell 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $40.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices for the front-month contract, which expires at Tuesday’s settlement, posted a weekly rise of 0.7%.

December Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 23 cents, or 0.5%, to $42.93 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Brent saw a 0.2% weekly climb.

Moya warned, however, that “Libya’s oil production revival might complicate the supply side narrative.”

Bloomberg reported Thursday that Libya’s output has climbed to around 500,000 barrels per day, after the reopening of facilities last month that had been shutdown since January due to a blockade related to the civil war.

Meanwhile, “the market is worried about how the increasing lockdown measures in Europe will affect demand,” said Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at BDSwiss Group, in a note.

“Mobility data suggests that travel has only recovered to 60% of its pre-pandemic levels in Europe, and it’s about to get a new hit as several European countries restrict gatherings again.”

\In the U.S., data released Friday revealed that industrial production fell for the first time in five moves, down 0.6% in September, surprising economists who expected more steady growth.

“The not-too distant memory of negative oil prices still stings traders across the space as the threat of another supply chain crunch would rise exponentially with expectations of new lockdown measures being imposed in the U.S.,” analysts wrote in the latest newsletter from Sevens Report Research.

Still, “more widespread lockdowns do remain rather unlikely.”

Looking to the OPEC+ committee meeting, Rystad’s Rodriguez-Masiu said “we expect on Monday’s meeting some strong words on compensating for the undercompliance” by some oil producers.

“What everybody is wondering is if there will be any action against the laggards this time or if the bashing will stay at a verbal level.”

Prices showed little reaction Friday to data from Baker Hughes, showing a fourth straight weekly increase in the active U.S. oil-rig count.

The number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 12 to 205 this week.


Oil fell sharply during Wednesday’s session, but ended the day with small losses.

Crude bounced after a round of weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration that showed a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude supplies, as well as a declines in gasoline inventories and a much larger than expected drop in distillate stocks.

On Nymex Friday, November gasoline settled at $1.1688 a gallon, down nearly 1%, with front-month prices logging a weekly loss of around 2.9%, while November heating oil lost 0.8% to $1.1791 a gallon, ending 1.1% lower for the week.

November natural gas shed less than 0.1% to $2.773 per million British thermal units, for a weekly rise of 1.2%.

The EIA on Thursday reported a smaller-than-expected weekly climb in U.S. natural-gas supplies.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... od=markets

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH Bond Report

"Treasury yields push higher after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales"


By Sunny Oh

Last Updated: Oct. 16, 2020 at 3:53 p.m. ET
First Published: Oct. 16, 2020 at 8:43 a.m. ET

Treasury yields rose Friday following data showing a sharp increase in U.S. retail sales in September, ameliorating some concerns that consumer spending would plunge without further government support.

What are Treasurys doing?

The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 1.3 basis points to 0.744%, trimming its weekly drop to 3.2 basis points, while the 2-year note rate was up 0.4 basis point to 0.143%, leaving it with a one basis point increase over the week.

The 30-year bond yield added 2.3 basis points to 1.528%, paring its weekly slide to 4.5 basis points.

What’s driving Treasurys?

Treasurys came under pressure after U.S. retail sales jumped 1.9% in September, above the MarketWatch-polled consensus of a 1.2% increase.

The elevated spending contrasts with worries that the U.S. economic recovery will fall apart if further government fiscal stimulus is not forthcoming, before the start of next year.

In other data, September industrial production fell 0.6% in September, the first decline after four straight months of increases.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index edged up to 81.2 this month from 80.4 in September.

European debt markets rallied as traders saw record new coronavirus cases reported in Europe.

Comments from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the country needs to prepare for a no-deal Brexit also sparked buying in safe-haven assets.

The 10-year German government bond yield fell 0.9 basis point to negative 0.622%.

What did market participants’ say?

“Despite unemployment benefits expiring for millions of Americans, today’s retail sales figure shows us there is still some gas in the tank for the consumer,” said Charlie Ripley, a senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treas ... quote_news

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH

"Consumer sentiment inches higher in early October as Americans look to improvement next year"


By Jeffry Bartash

Last Updated: Oct. 16, 2020 at 12:18 p.m. ET
First Published: Oct. 16, 2020 at 10:25 a.m. ET

The numbers:

Americans grew more worried in early October about a resurgence in the coronavirus and slower hiring, but optimism that the economy will get better next year pushed consumer sentiment to the best levels seen during the pandemic.

The preliminary reading of consumer sentiment index edged up to 81.2 this month from 80.4 in September, the University of Michigan said Friday.

That’s the highest level since March, just when the pandemic slammed the U.S. but the index remains well below levels seen at the start of this year.

What happened:

An index that measures current conditions slipped to 84.9 from 87.8, indicating Americans are paying close attention to the increase in COVID-19 infections.

The outbreaks appear worst in the Midwest, and if cases keep rising, it could lead to more government restrictions.

Yet consumers still think the situation will improve by early next year.

An index that measures expectations for the next six months rose to 78.5 from 75.6.

A separate question about who would win the presidential election showed that Democratic challenger Joe Biden expanded his advantage to 7 points in October from just 1 point in July and September.

The gap expanded owing to more enthusiasm among Democrats and less among Republicans.

Independent voters, however, favored President Trump by 2 or 3 points, the survey showed.

“Most elections are decided by those who are non-aligned with either party,” noted Richard Curtin, the chief economist at the group that produces the sentiment survey.

The big picture:

Higher confidence has long been associated with stronger economic growth and faster hiring.

The slight increase in early October is a good sign, but it also includes several warning flags.

The U.S. economic recovery may maintain its momentum if the spread of the coronavirus is kept under control and if Congress passes another major financial aid package.

What they are saying?

“Overall, sentiment continues to improve slowly as consumers look past the election and are hopeful about prospects for a COVID vaccine and a broader reopening of the economy,” said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies LLC.

Market reaction:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index rose in Friday trades.

Stocks fell on Thursday after U.S. jobless claims increased and investors grew worried about a rising number of coronavirus cases around the world.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consu ... 1602858328

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH

"U.S. retail sales surge 1.9% in September in show of strength for the economy"


By Jeffry Bartash

Published: Oct. 16, 2020 at 12:19 p.m. ET

The numbers:

Sales at U.S. retail stores surged in September and rose for the fifth month in a row as Americans bought more clothes, went out to eat and splurged on new cars and trucks, suggesting an economic recovery was still well underway at the start of fall.

Retail sales climbed 1.9% last month, the government said Friday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 1.2% increase.

Setting aside the large auto segment, retail sales were still quite strong, up 1.5%.

Although retail sales have snapped back quickly to pre-crisis levels and done so far faster than expected, many economists worry a letdown is coming.

People are returning to work at a slower pace, the coronavirus is spreading rapidly again, and Washington has failed to pass a second coronavirus-relief bill, triggering fresh worries about the health of the economy.

What happened:

Sales rose 3.6% at auto dealers in September.

Auto sales account for about one-fifth of all retail spending and sometimes exaggerate the ups and downs in the report.

Yet sales also rose in every other major category, except for electronic and appliance stores.

Clothing sales leaped 11% at the start of the new school year and cooler weather approached.

Sales also increased almost 10% at department stores.

In another good sign, sales at bars and restaurants rose 2.1% as more places were able to open or increase occupancy.

People tend to spend more at restaurants when they are more confident in the economy.

Restaurant sales are off about 14% compared to last year, however, and cooler temperatures could make it harder to serve more customers since fewer will be able to dine outside.

Stores that sell electronics and appliances were the only ones to post a decline.

Receipts fell 1.6% last month.

Big picture:

The increase in retail sales last month is the latest in a series of reports showing the economy was still expanding at a moderate pace in September.

The big question is whether the momentum can carry into October.

A number of large companies in entertainment and travel have announced layoffs as they struggle to regain their customers, a potential setback for the economy.

The coronavirus is also spreading rapidly again in many U.S. states and could lead to more government restrictions on business.

Many economists have urged the federal government to pass another major financial relief bill to prevent the recent economic progress from stalling, but Democrats and Republicans have been deadlocked for months.

What they are saying?

“The unexpectedly strong 1.9% rise in retail sales last month suggests the economy was carrying more momentum into the fourth quarter than anticipated,” said U.S. economist Michael Pearce of Capital Economics.

“But we are wary of getting too carried away when events in Europe serve as a reminder of how quickly a renewed resurgence in virus cases could take hold, which could yet dampen the recovery in the U.S.”

Market reaction:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose in Friday trades.

Stocks fell on Thursday after U.S. jobless claims increased and investors grew worried about a rising number of coronavirus cases around the world.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-re ... latestnews

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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

Post by thelivyjr » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:40 p

MARKETWATCH

"U.S. industrial output declines unexpectedly in September"


By Greg Robb

Published: Oct. 16, 2020 at 10:53 a.m. ET

The numbers:

Industrial production fell for the first time in five months in September, surprising economists who had expected more steady growth from the factory sector.

Industrial output fell 0.6% in September, the first decline after four straight months of gains, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.

The decline was well below Wall Street expectations of a 0.4% gain, according to a survey by MarketWatch.

Output remains 7.1% below its pre-pandemic level.

What happened:

The declines were widespread in September.

Manufacturing alone fell 0.3% after a 1.3% rise in August.

Output of motor vehicles and parts fell 4% in the month.

Utilities output fell a sharp 5.6% in September after a 1% decline in the prior month.

Mining production rose 1.7% after a 2.4% fall in August.

Capacity utilization fell to 71.5% in July, the highest/lowest rate since June.

The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation’s factories, mines and utilities.

Big picture:

Activity in the factory sector has been picking up in recent months, reversing the plunge that occurred at the start of the pandemic.

On its face, the decline in September shows it may be difficult for the sector to continue to expand until the virus pandemic subsides.

What are they saying?

“We expect industrial production will contend with significant challenges from the ongoing pandemic and that output will advance at a much slower pace, constrained by weak demand, supply chain disruptions, low oil prices and elevated uncertainty,” said Oren Klachkin, economist at Oxford Economics.

Market reaction:

U.S. equity benchmarks moved sharply higher on Friday after the strong retail sales data for September.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 315 points in midmorning trading.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-in ... 2020-10-16

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