REUTERS
"US labor market still tight; trade seen subtracting from Q1 growth"
By Lucia Mutikani
April 4, 2024
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims increase 9,000 to 221,000
* Continuing claims fall 19,000 to 1.791 million
* Trade deficit widens 1.9% to $68.9 billion in February
WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to a two-month high last week, though labor market conditions remain fairly tight.
The weekly claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday also showed fewer people remaining on jobless rolls towards the end of March, suggesting that laid-off workers continued to find work, just not as easily as two years ago.
"The labor market remains very strong," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended March 30, the highest level since late January.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 214,000 claims in the latest week.
Claims had bounced around between 210,000 and 212,000 for much of March.
Some economists attributed the larger-than-expected rise in claims to an early Easter this year, which could have thrown off the model that the government uses to strip seasonal fluctuations from the data.
Unadjusted claims increased 2,455 to 196,376 last week.
There were significant rises in filings in California, Iowa, Illinois and Pennsylvania.
These offset notable declines in Texas, Missouri and Georgia.
"We won't infer anything from one week's rise in claims, particularly since it occurred around a holiday, when claims data can be noisier than usual," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
Though layoffs increased to a 14-month high in March, job cuts were little changed compared to the same period last year.
There were 1.36 job openings for every unemployed person in February compared to 1.43 in January, government data showed this week.
Worker shortages persist in industries like construction.
Labor market resilience is anchoring the economy.
The economy's strength, combined with still-high inflation, could see the Federal Reserve delaying much-anticipated interest rate cuts this year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank has time to deliberate over its first rate cut.
Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices were lower.
SOLID JOB GAINS EXPECTED
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 19,000 to 1.791 million during the week ending March 23, the claims report showed.
The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%, consistent with a still-tight labor market.
The claims data have no bearing on March's employment report, scheduled to be released on Friday, as they fall outside the survey period.
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month after rising by 275,000 in February, according to a Reuters survey.
The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.9%.
Labor market strength is boosting consumer spending, which is pulling in imports.
A separate report from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the trade deficit widened 1.9% to $68.9 billion in February.
Economists had forecast the deficit little changed at $67.3 billion.
Exports jumped 2.3% to an all-time high of $263.0 billion.
Goods exports accelerated 2.9% to $176.7 billion.
There were increases in exports of industrial supplies and materials, which include crude oil.
Food exports rose $1.7 billion, boosted by soybeans.
Capital goods exports increased $1.5 billion to a record high $53.0 billion, amid a rise in civilian aircraft.
But exports of motor vehicles, parts and engines decreased $1.3 billion.
Exports of services rose $0.8 billion to an all-time high of $86.4 billion, lifted by travel and transport.
Imports advanced 2.2% to $331.9 billion in February, the highest level since October 2022.
Goods imports shot up 1.8% to $268.1 billion.
There were increases in imports of consumer goods, food as well as motor vehicles, parts and engines.
Services imports rose $2.4 billion to a record $63.8 billion.
Businesses are importing more goods to rebuild inventories and meet strong domestic demand, which should blunt some of the anticipated hit on gross domestic product growth from the widening trade gap.
When adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit increased 1.2% to $87.0 billion in February.
Economists estimated that trade could subtract as much as 0.75 percentage point from GDP growth in the first quarter.
Trade added 0.25 percentage point to the economy's 3.4% annualized growth rate in the October-December quarter after being neutral for two straight quarters.
The Atlanta Fed lowered its first-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 2.5% rate from a 2.8% pace.
"There's a decent chance that trade may end up being a larger drag on first-quarter GDP growth than we have been anticipating," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
"This likely will be due in part to strength in imports, which reflects firming in domestic demand."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-wee ... 024-04-04/
OIL, NATURAL GAS
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Holds Above $90 as Middle East Tensions Rise"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Friday, April 05, 2024
Oil held above the $90-a-barrel threshold as escalating tensions in the Middle East prompt a dramatic repricing of geopolitical risks.
Fears of a wider region conflict are rising, with Israel increasing preparations for an attack from Iran in retaliation for its strike on the country’s diplomatic compound in Syria.
“The market now knows that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come — but it doesn’t know when and where and what — and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB.
Global benchmark Brent and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate both posted their sixth straight sessions of gains.
The rising tensions have also spurred activity in the oil options market, with volatility surging and bullish calls trading at a rare premium to bearish puts.
Oil has surged more than 20% this year as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East further bolstered a market shaped by supply restrictions and stronger-than-expected demand.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas had led to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, raising transport costs, but so far hasn’t escalated into a wider war in a region that accounts for around a third of the world’s supply.
Cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas — which could see the release of hostages held in Gaza — remain deadlocked.
Earlier this week, OPEC+ chose to stick with supply cuts for the first half of the year, which means roughly 2 million barrels a day of output curbs will remain in place.
Those cuts have been compounded by Mexico’s decision to curb some oil exports, which will further reduce volumes to market.
Mexico’s president played down those concerns on Thursday.
Market watchers have become more bullish in recent weeks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Brent has the potential to rally to $100 a barrel this year if Russia’s decision to cut production wasn’t balanced out by other countermeasures.
ANZ Banking Group Ltd., meanwhile, raised its three-month outlook to $95.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 32 cents to settle at $86.91 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement rose 52 cents to settle at $91.17 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_h ... 6-article/
"Oil Holds Above $90 as Middle East Tensions Rise"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Friday, April 05, 2024
Oil held above the $90-a-barrel threshold as escalating tensions in the Middle East prompt a dramatic repricing of geopolitical risks.
Fears of a wider region conflict are rising, with Israel increasing preparations for an attack from Iran in retaliation for its strike on the country’s diplomatic compound in Syria.
“The market now knows that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come — but it doesn’t know when and where and what — and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB.
Global benchmark Brent and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate both posted their sixth straight sessions of gains.
The rising tensions have also spurred activity in the oil options market, with volatility surging and bullish calls trading at a rare premium to bearish puts.
Oil has surged more than 20% this year as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East further bolstered a market shaped by supply restrictions and stronger-than-expected demand.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas had led to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, raising transport costs, but so far hasn’t escalated into a wider war in a region that accounts for around a third of the world’s supply.
Cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas — which could see the release of hostages held in Gaza — remain deadlocked.
Earlier this week, OPEC+ chose to stick with supply cuts for the first half of the year, which means roughly 2 million barrels a day of output curbs will remain in place.
Those cuts have been compounded by Mexico’s decision to curb some oil exports, which will further reduce volumes to market.
Mexico’s president played down those concerns on Thursday.
Market watchers have become more bullish in recent weeks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Brent has the potential to rally to $100 a barrel this year if Russia’s decision to cut production wasn’t balanced out by other countermeasures.
ANZ Banking Group Ltd., meanwhile, raised its three-month outlook to $95.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 32 cents to settle at $86.91 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement rose 52 cents to settle at $91.17 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_h ... 6-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Drops as Geopolitical Tensions Show Signs of Easing"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Monday, April 08, 2024
Oil dropped below $90 a barrel after Israel said it would remove some troops from Gaza, with crude’s recent rally now facing technical resistance as geopolitical friction shows signs of easing.
Global benchmark Brent rallied to a five-month high last week on escalating tensions in the Middle East and supply shocks, raising the prospect of the global benchmark reaching triple figures.
But Brent surged into overbought territory on the 9-day relative strength index, signaling prices are poised to fall.
Meanwhile, algorithms for crude futures have reached their maximum long positions, according to traders.
Israel said on Sunday that the country is pulling some troops from southern Gaza, with the forces recuperating and preparing for future operations, including an offensive on Rafah.
Still, reports suggested there has been no progress in ceasefire negotiations taking place in Cairo.
Iran is also preparing a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria.
The broader outlook remains indicative of rising prices.
Timespreads are strong, volatility has recovered, and funds are going long on crude.
On Friday, volume for bullish oil call options — which profit when prices gain — was at the second-highest level on record.
The geopolitical issues have added bullish momentum to a market that has been grappling with robust demand and patches of supply issues.
Over the weekend, there was a fire at one of Mexico’s oil platforms, killing one person and injuring nine.
The country already had planned to reduce some of its crude exports in the coming months.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery declined 48 cents to settle at $86.43 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement fell 79 cents to settle at $90.38 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_d ... 2-article/
"Oil Drops as Geopolitical Tensions Show Signs of Easing"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Monday, April 08, 2024
Oil dropped below $90 a barrel after Israel said it would remove some troops from Gaza, with crude’s recent rally now facing technical resistance as geopolitical friction shows signs of easing.
Global benchmark Brent rallied to a five-month high last week on escalating tensions in the Middle East and supply shocks, raising the prospect of the global benchmark reaching triple figures.
But Brent surged into overbought territory on the 9-day relative strength index, signaling prices are poised to fall.
Meanwhile, algorithms for crude futures have reached their maximum long positions, according to traders.
Israel said on Sunday that the country is pulling some troops from southern Gaza, with the forces recuperating and preparing for future operations, including an offensive on Rafah.
Still, reports suggested there has been no progress in ceasefire negotiations taking place in Cairo.
Iran is also preparing a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria.
The broader outlook remains indicative of rising prices.
Timespreads are strong, volatility has recovered, and funds are going long on crude.
On Friday, volume for bullish oil call options — which profit when prices gain — was at the second-highest level on record.
The geopolitical issues have added bullish momentum to a market that has been grappling with robust demand and patches of supply issues.
Over the weekend, there was a fire at one of Mexico’s oil platforms, killing one person and injuring nine.
The country already had planned to reduce some of its crude exports in the coming months.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery declined 48 cents to settle at $86.43 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement fell 79 cents to settle at $90.38 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_d ... 2-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls as Traders Weigh Middle East Dangers"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, April 09, 2024
Oil fell to settle near $85 a barrel, dropping from a five-month high alongside lower equities, as traders assessed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
Israel said progress has been made in negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza, though Hamas dismissed the claim.
A senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, meanwhile, said it won’t block the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions with Israel.
Direct Iranian involvement in the war holds the potential for significant disruptions to global crude supplies.
Oil’s recent pullback was also driven by technicals, with gauges such as the relative strength index signaling futures were overbought.
“The paper market looks overbought, and a pullback driven by profit-taking is likely,” analysts at FGE wrote in a report.
They added that the tighter fundamentals were not fully behind the price surge, but that geopolitics helped crude notch a leg higher.
Still, the broader outlook remains bullish and some market watchers are predicting $100 oil as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts.
The options market is flashing strength, with the heaviest buying of bullish call options for Brent — which profit when prices rise — since 2019 on Friday followed by another day of frenzied trading on Monday.
Oil prices may trade in a $80-to-$100 range this year, Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy said at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland on Tuesday, adding that the company expects strong oil consumption growth.
Gunvor Group’s global head of research said demand expectations had risen, echoing comments from Trafigura Group a day earlier.
Meanwhile, a new Chinese mega-refinery received an import quota for this year, people familiar with the matter said.
The volume would equate to about 167,000 barrels a day of additional crude import demand, adding to the improved consumption outlook.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery fell $1.20 to settle at $85.23 a barrel.
Brent for June settlement fell 96 cents to settle at $89.42 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 5-article/
"Oil Falls as Traders Weigh Middle East Dangers"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, April 09, 2024
Oil fell to settle near $85 a barrel, dropping from a five-month high alongside lower equities, as traders assessed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
Israel said progress has been made in negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza, though Hamas dismissed the claim.
A senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, meanwhile, said it won’t block the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions with Israel.
Direct Iranian involvement in the war holds the potential for significant disruptions to global crude supplies.
Oil’s recent pullback was also driven by technicals, with gauges such as the relative strength index signaling futures were overbought.
“The paper market looks overbought, and a pullback driven by profit-taking is likely,” analysts at FGE wrote in a report.
They added that the tighter fundamentals were not fully behind the price surge, but that geopolitics helped crude notch a leg higher.
Still, the broader outlook remains bullish and some market watchers are predicting $100 oil as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts.
The options market is flashing strength, with the heaviest buying of bullish call options for Brent — which profit when prices rise — since 2019 on Friday followed by another day of frenzied trading on Monday.
Oil prices may trade in a $80-to-$100 range this year, Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy said at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland on Tuesday, adding that the company expects strong oil consumption growth.
Gunvor Group’s global head of research said demand expectations had risen, echoing comments from Trafigura Group a day earlier.
Meanwhile, a new Chinese mega-refinery received an import quota for this year, people familiar with the matter said.
The volume would equate to about 167,000 barrels a day of additional crude import demand, adding to the improved consumption outlook.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery fell $1.20 to settle at $85.23 a barrel.
Brent for June settlement fell 96 cents to settle at $89.42 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 5-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises After News of Imminent Strike on Israel"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Devika Krishna Kumar
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Oil reversed earlier losses and quickly moved higher after it was reported that the US and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against military and government targets in Israel are imminent.
West Texas Intermediate rallied as much as 1.4% to trade above $86 a barrel on Wednesday before paring some gains.
Prices are up about 22% in 2024, partly on geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The news comes after Iran said it was preparing a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria.
Traders have been closely monitoring the situation, seeing the potential escalation as the next catalyst for crude.
“Oil’s next move will now depend on the type of response from Iran” if the potential escalation will disrupt global oil supplies, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG.
Earlier, WTI traded little changed near $85 a barrel as a stronger US dollar and increasing US stockpiles added bearish headwinds to crude’s recent rally.
Crude’s rise this year has also been underpinned by OPEC+ supply cuts.
Investors will get a broader snapshot of the market outlook when OPEC and the International Energy Agency release monthly reports this week.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery added 98 cents to settle at $86.21 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement gained $1.06 to settle at $90.48 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
"Oil Rises After News of Imminent Strike on Israel"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Devika Krishna Kumar
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Oil reversed earlier losses and quickly moved higher after it was reported that the US and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against military and government targets in Israel are imminent.
West Texas Intermediate rallied as much as 1.4% to trade above $86 a barrel on Wednesday before paring some gains.
Prices are up about 22% in 2024, partly on geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
The news comes after Iran said it was preparing a response to a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria.
Traders have been closely monitoring the situation, seeing the potential escalation as the next catalyst for crude.
“Oil’s next move will now depend on the type of response from Iran” if the potential escalation will disrupt global oil supplies, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG.
Earlier, WTI traded little changed near $85 a barrel as a stronger US dollar and increasing US stockpiles added bearish headwinds to crude’s recent rally.
Crude’s rise this year has also been underpinned by OPEC+ supply cuts.
Investors will get a broader snapshot of the market outlook when OPEC and the International Energy Agency release monthly reports this week.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery added 98 cents to settle at $86.21 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement gained $1.06 to settle at $90.48 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls as Surging Stockpiles Outweigh Iran Risk"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Oil gave up the previous day’s gains as swelling US stockpiles overshadowed the possibility of an attack on Israel by Iran or its proxies.
West Texas Intermediate fell 1.4% after crude inventories in the US rose 5.84 million barrels last week, holding at the highest since July.
Still, oil settled just above $85 a barrel as the US and its allies brace for Iran to strike Israel in retaliation for an attack on a diplomatic compound in Syria last week.
Adding to the headwinds in recent days was a hot US inflation print, which may delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Oil is up about 19% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply cuts.
The producer group said the oil market will need close monitoring over the summer, when demand is expected to surge.
Many of the world’s top traders and Wall Street banks are shifting toward a bullish sentiment, with some seeing a possible return to $100 for the global benchmark.
However, Macquarie Group said Brent will enter a bear market in the second half, with recent gains unlikely to hold if geopolitical events don’t lead to actual supply disruptions.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery slipped 1.4% to settle at $85.02 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement dipped 0.8% to settle at $89.74 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 1-article/
"Oil Falls as Surging Stockpiles Outweigh Iran Risk"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Oil gave up the previous day’s gains as swelling US stockpiles overshadowed the possibility of an attack on Israel by Iran or its proxies.
West Texas Intermediate fell 1.4% after crude inventories in the US rose 5.84 million barrels last week, holding at the highest since July.
Still, oil settled just above $85 a barrel as the US and its allies brace for Iran to strike Israel in retaliation for an attack on a diplomatic compound in Syria last week.
Adding to the headwinds in recent days was a hot US inflation print, which may delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Oil is up about 19% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply cuts.
The producer group said the oil market will need close monitoring over the summer, when demand is expected to surge.
Many of the world’s top traders and Wall Street banks are shifting toward a bullish sentiment, with some seeing a possible return to $100 for the global benchmark.
However, Macquarie Group said Brent will enter a bear market in the second half, with recent gains unlikely to hold if geopolitical events don’t lead to actual supply disruptions.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery slipped 1.4% to settle at $85.02 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement dipped 0.8% to settle at $89.74 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 1-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises as Israel Braces for Iranian Attack"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, April 12, 2024
Oil rose as Israel braced for a possible attack from Iran, a development that would threaten major disruptions in a region that accounts for a third of the world’s crude output.
An assault is expected to come as soon as the next 48 hours, which would mark a significant widening of the conflict that started when Hamas attacked Israel in October.
Global benchmark Brent surged as much as 2.7% to top $92 a barrel — a level last reached during the early days of the war — before paring gains to settle above $90 a barrel.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed as much as 3.1% before its advance faded.
Israel is expecting a drone or missile attack on government targets within days, either directly or from Iran’s proxies, people familiar with Western intelligence assessments said.
The move still hasn’t been approved by Tehran’s highest-ranking officials, the people said, while the US has moved additional military assets into the region.
“Direct Iranian engagement puts higher odds of a potential supply disruption in the region, causing many traders to continue to reach for exposure in crude and upside crude call options,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“Heading into a weekend with significant headline risk, there are few sellers willing to step in and sell the rally.”
WTI has surged about 19% this year as the Middle East conflict bolsters a market shaped by supply restrictions and stronger-than-expected demand.
The escalating geopolitical tensions — also including attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine — have spurred bullish activity in the oil options market.
There has been elevated buying of call options — which profit when prices rise — in recent days, with implied volatility jumping to a two-month high.
The options on Brent are still trading at a premium over bearish puts.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 64 cents to settle at $85.66 a barrel.
Brent for June settlement climbed 71 cents to settle at $90.45.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 5-article/
"Oil Rises as Israel Braces for Iranian Attack"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, April 12, 2024
Oil rose as Israel braced for a possible attack from Iran, a development that would threaten major disruptions in a region that accounts for a third of the world’s crude output.
An assault is expected to come as soon as the next 48 hours, which would mark a significant widening of the conflict that started when Hamas attacked Israel in October.
Global benchmark Brent surged as much as 2.7% to top $92 a barrel — a level last reached during the early days of the war — before paring gains to settle above $90 a barrel.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed as much as 3.1% before its advance faded.
Israel is expecting a drone or missile attack on government targets within days, either directly or from Iran’s proxies, people familiar with Western intelligence assessments said.
The move still hasn’t been approved by Tehran’s highest-ranking officials, the people said, while the US has moved additional military assets into the region.
“Direct Iranian engagement puts higher odds of a potential supply disruption in the region, causing many traders to continue to reach for exposure in crude and upside crude call options,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“Heading into a weekend with significant headline risk, there are few sellers willing to step in and sell the rally.”
WTI has surged about 19% this year as the Middle East conflict bolsters a market shaped by supply restrictions and stronger-than-expected demand.
The escalating geopolitical tensions — also including attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine — have spurred bullish activity in the oil options market.
There has been elevated buying of call options — which profit when prices rise — in recent days, with implied volatility jumping to a two-month high.
The options on Brent are still trading at a premium over bearish puts.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 64 cents to settle at $85.66 a barrel.
Brent for June settlement climbed 71 cents to settle at $90.45.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 5-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls as Traders Anticipate Israeli Retaliation Against Iran"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Monday, April 15, 2024
Oil retreated from session lows as traders await Israel’s response to an unprecedented attack from Iran.
West Texas Intermediate closed above $85 a barrel, erasing earlier losses, on reports that Israeli officials are vowing to retaliate against Iran.
Ahead of the strike on Israel this weekend, crude surged to a five-month high but fell as much as 2% after most of the 300 drones and missiles fired by Iran were intercepted.
“At this juncture, the outlook for oil seems to hinge on Israeli response to the attack,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.
“Nevertheless, with bellicose rhetoric coming from both sides, markets might continue to place a sizeable premium on the price of oil in the immediate term.”
Oil has been one of the strongest performers in commodities this year as OPEC+ keeps a tight rein on supply to drain inventories and support prices.
The increase in Middle East tensions has boosted prices in recent weeks, with analysts highlighting the possibility oil could once again hit $100 a barrel.
Societe Generale SA revised its forecast notably higher, saying in a note that direct military action between the US and Iran could send Brent to $140.
Shipping risks have also been in focus after Iran seized a vessel, the MSC Aries, near the key Strait of Hormuz shortly before the strikes against Israel.
The ship’s beneficial owner is part of Israel-linked Zodiac Group, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The move raises fresh concerns over the safety of vessels in the region, adding to previous logistical disruptions.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery declined 0.3% to settle at $85.41 a barrel.
Brent for June settlement fell 0.4% to $90.10 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 1-article/
"Oil Falls as Traders Anticipate Israeli Retaliation Against Iran"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Monday, April 15, 2024
Oil retreated from session lows as traders await Israel’s response to an unprecedented attack from Iran.
West Texas Intermediate closed above $85 a barrel, erasing earlier losses, on reports that Israeli officials are vowing to retaliate against Iran.
Ahead of the strike on Israel this weekend, crude surged to a five-month high but fell as much as 2% after most of the 300 drones and missiles fired by Iran were intercepted.
“At this juncture, the outlook for oil seems to hinge on Israeli response to the attack,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.
“Nevertheless, with bellicose rhetoric coming from both sides, markets might continue to place a sizeable premium on the price of oil in the immediate term.”
Oil has been one of the strongest performers in commodities this year as OPEC+ keeps a tight rein on supply to drain inventories and support prices.
The increase in Middle East tensions has boosted prices in recent weeks, with analysts highlighting the possibility oil could once again hit $100 a barrel.
Societe Generale SA revised its forecast notably higher, saying in a note that direct military action between the US and Iran could send Brent to $140.
Shipping risks have also been in focus after Iran seized a vessel, the MSC Aries, near the key Strait of Hormuz shortly before the strikes against Israel.
The ship’s beneficial owner is part of Israel-linked Zodiac Group, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The move raises fresh concerns over the safety of vessels in the region, adding to previous logistical disruptions.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery declined 0.3% to settle at $85.41 a barrel.
Brent for June settlement fell 0.4% to $90.10 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 1-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Shows Little Change Awaiting Israel Response"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Oil fluctuated in a narrow range as risk-off sentiment prevailed in broader markets and traders monitored Israel’s response to an unprecedented attack by Iran.
West Texas Intermediate settled little changed above $85 a barrel as a stronger dollar pressured commodities priced in the currency.
Prices swung between gains and losses of less than 1% throughout the session.
Top Israeli military officials said their country has no choice but to respond to Tehran’s weekend strike, even as Western and Arab nations try to convince Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that an aggressive reaction would harm Israel’s interests.
The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude supply.
The Israeli officials’ comments about retaliation led to a fresh round of bidding in the oil options market late Monday.
Bullish calls on global benchmark Brent crude are trading at the biggest premium to bearish puts since October, and the volume of contracts that profit from higher prices set a fresh record.
Unless the attacks result in escalation or lead to the “destruction of oil-producing components, each attack will pull less on prices,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial.
“Still, a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $7 to $10 in crude will most likely remain until there are signs of de-escalation.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threw additional choppiness into the market after signaling that the Fed may hold rates higher for longer to combat sticky inflation.
The S&P 500 spiked on Powell’s comments, but oil is moving more in line with news from the Middle East, said Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X Management.
He noted that Powell’s newest statement hasn’t deviated from his existing message around rate cuts.
In another sign that crude may face challenges building on its 19% advance this year, one South Korean refiner will lower operating rates from this month as a result of recent gains in oil, people with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery declined 0.1% to settle at $85.36 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement declined 0.1% to settle at $90.02.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 7-article/
"Oil Shows Little Change Awaiting Israel Response"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Oil fluctuated in a narrow range as risk-off sentiment prevailed in broader markets and traders monitored Israel’s response to an unprecedented attack by Iran.
West Texas Intermediate settled little changed above $85 a barrel as a stronger dollar pressured commodities priced in the currency.
Prices swung between gains and losses of less than 1% throughout the session.
Top Israeli military officials said their country has no choice but to respond to Tehran’s weekend strike, even as Western and Arab nations try to convince Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that an aggressive reaction would harm Israel’s interests.
The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude supply.
The Israeli officials’ comments about retaliation led to a fresh round of bidding in the oil options market late Monday.
Bullish calls on global benchmark Brent crude are trading at the biggest premium to bearish puts since October, and the volume of contracts that profit from higher prices set a fresh record.
Unless the attacks result in escalation or lead to the “destruction of oil-producing components, each attack will pull less on prices,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial.
“Still, a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $7 to $10 in crude will most likely remain until there are signs of de-escalation.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threw additional choppiness into the market after signaling that the Fed may hold rates higher for longer to combat sticky inflation.
The S&P 500 spiked on Powell’s comments, but oil is moving more in line with news from the Middle East, said Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X Management.
He noted that Powell’s newest statement hasn’t deviated from his existing message around rate cuts.
In another sign that crude may face challenges building on its 19% advance this year, one South Korean refiner will lower operating rates from this month as a result of recent gains in oil, people with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery declined 0.1% to settle at $85.36 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement declined 0.1% to settle at $90.02.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 7-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Plummets Over 3% to Three Week Low"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Oil fell more than 3% to a three-week low as trend-following algorithms accelerated the day’s selloff.
US crude inventories swelling to a nine-month high, combined with weaker Chinese industrial data, pushed West Texas Intermediate futures to settle at $82.69 — below the key $84 support level, according to Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
“This gave rise to further technical selling,” he said.
While markets are still waiting for Israel to respond to Iran’s weekend attack, with the US urging restraint, traders are returning their focus to market fundamentals.
Key timespreads have weakened in recent days, pointing to softening sentiment.
Yet the downside could be limited, with the next key support level at $82, Razaqzada said.
Crude has surged this year on the back of upheavals in the Middle East and Russia, and OPEC+ output cuts.
Potentially tightening the market further, the US plans to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela if Nicolas Maduro’s regime doesn’t take steps in the next two days to allow a fairer vote in elections this year, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments Tuesday, however, signaled policymakers will wait longer than previously anticipated to cut US interest rates, potentially providing a headwind for wider energy demand.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery retreated 3.1% to settle at $82.69 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement fell 3% to $87.29 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 4-article/
"Oil Plummets Over 3% to Three Week Low"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Oil fell more than 3% to a three-week low as trend-following algorithms accelerated the day’s selloff.
US crude inventories swelling to a nine-month high, combined with weaker Chinese industrial data, pushed West Texas Intermediate futures to settle at $82.69 — below the key $84 support level, according to Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
“This gave rise to further technical selling,” he said.
While markets are still waiting for Israel to respond to Iran’s weekend attack, with the US urging restraint, traders are returning their focus to market fundamentals.
Key timespreads have weakened in recent days, pointing to softening sentiment.
Yet the downside could be limited, with the next key support level at $82, Razaqzada said.
Crude has surged this year on the back of upheavals in the Middle East and Russia, and OPEC+ output cuts.
Potentially tightening the market further, the US plans to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela if Nicolas Maduro’s regime doesn’t take steps in the next two days to allow a fairer vote in elections this year, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments Tuesday, however, signaled policymakers will wait longer than previously anticipated to cut US interest rates, potentially providing a headwind for wider energy demand.
Prices:
WTI for May delivery retreated 3.1% to settle at $82.69 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement fell 3% to $87.29 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 4-article/