REUTERS
"Yellen to warn that eroding US democracy, Fed, threatens economic growth"
By David Lawder
May 1, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will make the argument on Friday that strong democratic institutions -- including an independent Federal Reserve -- are a key foundation for sustained and shared growth and prosperity, according to excerpts of remarks released by the Treasury.
Yellen, in an address to the McCain Institute's Sedona Forum in Arizona, will say that rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021 put democracy under threat, "spurred by a lie," according to the excerpts released on Wednesday.
"Undercutting democracy undercuts a foundation of sustainable and inclusive growth," Yellen will say in the remarks.
The speech, at a Republican-founded institution in the important election battleground state of Arizona, is expected to be among Yellen's most political addresses as Treasury secretary.
It is significant in that she will stray from promoting President Joe Biden's economic policies into a key argument that his campaign is making against Republican rival Donald Trump: that Trump put democracy at risk by egging on the Jan. 6 Capitol rioters at the end of his presidential term and is likely to further erode institutions if elected to a second term.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Trump allies are drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve's independence and give Trump more influence over the central bank if he wins in November.
Yellen will make a plug for maintaining Fed independence in her speech.
"As Chair of the Federal Reserve, I insisted on the Fed’s independence and transparency because I believe it matters for financial stability and economic growth," Yellen will say, according to the excerpts.
"Recent research has been consistent with my belief: It has shown that greater central bank independence is associated with greater price stability, which contributes significantly to long-term growth."
Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yell ... cracy-fed-
threatens-economic-growth-2024-05-01/
THE DAILY NEWS
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"AMD, Super Micro tumble as earnings fall short"
By Harshita Mary Varghese
May 1, 2024
May 1 (Reuters) - Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro Computer led a selloff in chip stocks on Wednesday after their earnings disappointed investors who had piled into the sector on optimism about AI.
AMD slumped nearly 10% and was on course to lose more than $21 billion in market value.
Its forecast of $4 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 fell short of the high expectations of Wall Street investors following larger rival Nvidia's massive forecasts over the past year.
Super Micro Computer, whose 150% stock jump this year has outpaced even gains in Nvidia, dropped more than 16% after its third-quarter revenue missed estimates amid questions over the profitability of a new line of servers.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor index tumbled 3.5%.
Nvidia fell 5.7%, while Micron Technology lost 2.9% and AI-linked chip firm Marvell Technology slid 3.6%.
"As the market is shifting more towards risk-off over the last couple of days, it's not shocking that unless these companies are beating earnings by a mile that some of the hot air is coming out of them for now," said Russell Hackmann, president of Hackmann Wealth Partners.
Executives of both AMD and Super Micro Computer said supply constraints were hampering their efforts to capitalize on demand for equipment powering the boom in generative AI.
"Stepping back, AMD has several customers who are all trying to ramp MI300 (AI chip) very quickly."
"This is stressing the supply chain to a certain extent," said analysts at TD Cowen.
"However, from a demand perspective, customer engagement is in fact increasing, not only for MI300X but its successor products."
Several analysts were still positive on AMD, saying easing supply chain constraints should allow the company to increase its share of the AI chip market and potentially reap billions of dollars in revenue.
At least 10 analysts lowered their price target on AMD, while eight raised their view, according to LSEG data.
Super Micro saw three price target increases and two cuts.
Shares of Apple suppliers Qualcomm and Qorvo fell 0.7% and 3.4%, respectively, ahead of their quarterly reports on Wednesday after the bell.
Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shounak Dasgupta
https://www.reuters.com/technology/amd- ... 024-05-01/
"AMD, Super Micro tumble as earnings fall short"
By Harshita Mary Varghese
May 1, 2024
May 1 (Reuters) - Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro Computer led a selloff in chip stocks on Wednesday after their earnings disappointed investors who had piled into the sector on optimism about AI.
AMD slumped nearly 10% and was on course to lose more than $21 billion in market value.
Its forecast of $4 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 fell short of the high expectations of Wall Street investors following larger rival Nvidia's massive forecasts over the past year.
Super Micro Computer, whose 150% stock jump this year has outpaced even gains in Nvidia, dropped more than 16% after its third-quarter revenue missed estimates amid questions over the profitability of a new line of servers.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor index tumbled 3.5%.
Nvidia fell 5.7%, while Micron Technology lost 2.9% and AI-linked chip firm Marvell Technology slid 3.6%.
"As the market is shifting more towards risk-off over the last couple of days, it's not shocking that unless these companies are beating earnings by a mile that some of the hot air is coming out of them for now," said Russell Hackmann, president of Hackmann Wealth Partners.
Executives of both AMD and Super Micro Computer said supply constraints were hampering their efforts to capitalize on demand for equipment powering the boom in generative AI.
"Stepping back, AMD has several customers who are all trying to ramp MI300 (AI chip) very quickly."
"This is stressing the supply chain to a certain extent," said analysts at TD Cowen.
"However, from a demand perspective, customer engagement is in fact increasing, not only for MI300X but its successor products."
Several analysts were still positive on AMD, saying easing supply chain constraints should allow the company to increase its share of the AI chip market and potentially reap billions of dollars in revenue.
At least 10 analysts lowered their price target on AMD, while eight raised their view, according to LSEG data.
Super Micro saw three price target increases and two cuts.
Shares of Apple suppliers Qualcomm and Qorvo fell 0.7% and 3.4%, respectively, ahead of their quarterly reports on Wednesday after the bell.
Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shounak Dasgupta
https://www.reuters.com/technology/amd- ... 024-05-01/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
RIGZONE
"Oil Shows Minimal Change After Swinging in Narrow Range"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Jordan Fitzgerald
Thursday, May 02, 2024
Oil settled little changed after swinging in a narrow range throughout the session, with a buildup in US stockpiles and a potential cease-fire in the Middle East suppressing a rebound from yesterday’s sharp losses.
West Texas Intermediate closed below $79 a barrel and earlier dropped to the lowest in seven weeks after Hamas said it was studying a current cease-fire proposal with a “positive-spirit,” potentially lessening geopolitical tensions.
In the physical market, US stockpiles jumped the most since February last week and key timespreads have been pointing to a softer market.
Oil’s recent selloff was driven by a breach in technical levels that has traders assessing whether there is more room for prices to fall.
Currently, key gauges such as the relative strength index are signaling futures were oversold.
The dollar also slid earlier in the day, making commodities priced in the currency more appealing.
“Sell by May, then go away,” analysts at wholesale fuel distributor TACenergy wrote in a note to clients.
“The old trading adage looked good for energy markets in 2024 as the new month started off with the biggest daily selloff of the year so far.”
Oil has lost more than 5% this week on signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, including the prospect of a historic pact between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Falling equity markets have also provided headwinds for crude in recent days as traders shy away from risk assets.
The decline is a turnabout from last month, when oil soared to the highest since October following Iran’s attack on Israel.
On the supply side, the United Arab Emirates’ main oil company said it has bolstered its production capacity, a month before the country meets with fellow OPEC+ nations to decide output levels for the second half of the year.
Prices:
WTI for June delivery slipped 0.1% to settle at $78.95 a barrel in New York.
Brent for July settlement rose 0.3% to $83.67 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 8-article/
"Oil Shows Minimal Change After Swinging in Narrow Range"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Jordan Fitzgerald
Thursday, May 02, 2024
Oil settled little changed after swinging in a narrow range throughout the session, with a buildup in US stockpiles and a potential cease-fire in the Middle East suppressing a rebound from yesterday’s sharp losses.
West Texas Intermediate closed below $79 a barrel and earlier dropped to the lowest in seven weeks after Hamas said it was studying a current cease-fire proposal with a “positive-spirit,” potentially lessening geopolitical tensions.
In the physical market, US stockpiles jumped the most since February last week and key timespreads have been pointing to a softer market.
Oil’s recent selloff was driven by a breach in technical levels that has traders assessing whether there is more room for prices to fall.
Currently, key gauges such as the relative strength index are signaling futures were oversold.
The dollar also slid earlier in the day, making commodities priced in the currency more appealing.
“Sell by May, then go away,” analysts at wholesale fuel distributor TACenergy wrote in a note to clients.
“The old trading adage looked good for energy markets in 2024 as the new month started off with the biggest daily selloff of the year so far.”
Oil has lost more than 5% this week on signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, including the prospect of a historic pact between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Falling equity markets have also provided headwinds for crude in recent days as traders shy away from risk assets.
The decline is a turnabout from last month, when oil soared to the highest since October following Iran’s attack on Israel.
On the supply side, the United Arab Emirates’ main oil company said it has bolstered its production capacity, a month before the country meets with fellow OPEC+ nations to decide output levels for the second half of the year.
Prices:
WTI for June delivery slipped 0.1% to settle at $78.95 a barrel in New York.
Brent for July settlement rose 0.3% to $83.67 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 8-article/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"Treasury yields dip as investors weigh monetary policy outlook"
Samantha Subin @SAMANTHA_SUBIN Sophie Kiderlin @IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/ @SKIDERLIN
PUBLISHED THU, MAY 2 2024
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower Thursday as investors deliberated the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday to leave rates unchanged.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell about a basis point to 4.583%.
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.887%, down by 5 basis points.
Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%.
Unit labor costs increased 4.7% in the January to March period, the product of a 5% increase in hourly compensation offset by a 0.3% growth rate in productivity, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 4% increase in unit labor costs and 0.5% for productivity.
Wall Street continued to digest the latest commentary from the Fed as Chair Jerome Powell indicated it was unlikely that the central bank’s next policy move would push rates higher.
Policymakers would need to “see persuasive evidence that our policy stance is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time” in order to hike rates, he said.
Powell also addressed inflation, saying it remained “too high.”
“Further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain,” he added.
The Fed on Wednesday also said it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening.
Under QT, the central bank is shrinking the size of its balance sheet by allowing maturing bond proceeds to roll off without being reinvested.
Effectively, it is a way to restrict monetary conditions.
The new plan will begin in June and will see a reduction of the amount of proceeds from maturing Treasurys that are allowed to roll off the Fed’s balance sheet each month.
Investors are looking ahead to the April jobs report set to release Friday.
Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 240,000 last month, compared to a gain of 303,000 in the previous month.
The unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 3.8%.
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/us-trea ... tlook.html
"Treasury yields dip as investors weigh monetary policy outlook"
Samantha Subin @SAMANTHA_SUBIN Sophie Kiderlin @IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/ @SKIDERLIN
PUBLISHED THU, MAY 2 2024
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower Thursday as investors deliberated the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday to leave rates unchanged.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell about a basis point to 4.583%.
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.887%, down by 5 basis points.
Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%.
Unit labor costs increased 4.7% in the January to March period, the product of a 5% increase in hourly compensation offset by a 0.3% growth rate in productivity, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 4% increase in unit labor costs and 0.5% for productivity.
Wall Street continued to digest the latest commentary from the Fed as Chair Jerome Powell indicated it was unlikely that the central bank’s next policy move would push rates higher.
Policymakers would need to “see persuasive evidence that our policy stance is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time” in order to hike rates, he said.
Powell also addressed inflation, saying it remained “too high.”
“Further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain,” he added.
The Fed on Wednesday also said it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening.
Under QT, the central bank is shrinking the size of its balance sheet by allowing maturing bond proceeds to roll off without being reinvested.
Effectively, it is a way to restrict monetary conditions.
The new plan will begin in June and will see a reduction of the amount of proceeds from maturing Treasurys that are allowed to roll off the Fed’s balance sheet each month.
Investors are looking ahead to the April jobs report set to release Friday.
Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 240,000 last month, compared to a gain of 303,000 in the previous month.
The unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 3.8%.
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/us-trea ... tlook.html
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Wall Street ends higher as Fed signals dovish bias; jobs report eyed"
By Stephen Culp
May 2, 2024
Summary
* Qualcomm's upbeat Q3 forecast boosts chips, Nasdaq
* April jobs report comes into focus
* Indexes up: Dow 0.85%, S&P 0.91%, Nasdaq 1.51%
NEW YORK May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's more dovish-than-expected interest rate guidance on Wednesday against a plethora of mixed earnings and economic data.
All three indexes ended in positive territory.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way, advancing 1.5% with healthy boost from chip stocks after Qualcomm reported quarterly sales and profit above analysts' expectations.
Markets continued to parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assurances on Wednesday that the central bank's next policy move will be to lower its key policy rate, after it left rates unchanged at the end of its monthly meeting.
However, he noted that recent strong inflation readings have suggested that first of these rate cuts could be a long time in coming.
"The takeaway from yesterday is that the Fed's bias is still a downward, hold steady or cut rates," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Silvest in Elmhurst, Illinois.
"They're not willing to raise rates from here."
"They'll keep rates steady, and any sign of economic weakness or lower inflation, they are going to be ready to jump on it and cut."
Data released on Thursday included muted jobless claims, a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's closely watched April employment report.
"The Fed has been consistent in saying they're going to be data dependent," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta.
"We went into this year thinking there could be more cuts, earlier."
"The data hasn't supported that."
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) upgraded its global growth outlook, thanks in part to the U.S. economy's resilience.
Of the 373 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings through Thursday morning, 77% have posted better-than-expected results, LSEG data showed.
After the market closed, Apple reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly revenue and its shares initially rose.
"The common theme (this quarter) is those companies that are beating expectations aren't really being rewarded as much as they have in prior quarters," Nolte added.
"And those that are missing expectations are getting shellacked."
Among individual stocks, Qualcomm advanced 9.8% following its earnings beat.
Shares of used car platform Carvana surged 33.8 % on its upbeat profit forecast.
But disappointing profit guidance sent DoorDash's stock down 10.3 %.
Etsy shares slid 15.0 % after the online marketplace missed Wall Street expectations for first-quarter gross merchandise sales and profit.
Peloton dropped 2.5 % after the fitness equipment maker's CEO stepped down and the company announced a 15% cut to its global workforce.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 322.37 points, or 0.85%, to 38,225.66.
The S&P 500 gained 45.81 points, or 0.91%, at 5,064.2 and the Nasdaq Composite added 235.48 points, or 1.51%, at 15,840.96.
Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors ended higher, with tech firms leading the gainers.
Materials suffered the largest percentage loss.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 3.63-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.29-to-1 ratio favored advancers.
The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and eight new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 89 new lows.
Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 11.04 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Shristi Achar A and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futu ... 024-05-02/
"Wall Street ends higher as Fed signals dovish bias; jobs report eyed"
By Stephen Culp
May 2, 2024
Summary
* Qualcomm's upbeat Q3 forecast boosts chips, Nasdaq
* April jobs report comes into focus
* Indexes up: Dow 0.85%, S&P 0.91%, Nasdaq 1.51%
NEW YORK May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's more dovish-than-expected interest rate guidance on Wednesday against a plethora of mixed earnings and economic data.
All three indexes ended in positive territory.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way, advancing 1.5% with healthy boost from chip stocks after Qualcomm reported quarterly sales and profit above analysts' expectations.
Markets continued to parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assurances on Wednesday that the central bank's next policy move will be to lower its key policy rate, after it left rates unchanged at the end of its monthly meeting.
However, he noted that recent strong inflation readings have suggested that first of these rate cuts could be a long time in coming.
"The takeaway from yesterday is that the Fed's bias is still a downward, hold steady or cut rates," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Silvest in Elmhurst, Illinois.
"They're not willing to raise rates from here."
"They'll keep rates steady, and any sign of economic weakness or lower inflation, they are going to be ready to jump on it and cut."
Data released on Thursday included muted jobless claims, a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's closely watched April employment report.
"The Fed has been consistent in saying they're going to be data dependent," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta.
"We went into this year thinking there could be more cuts, earlier."
"The data hasn't supported that."
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) upgraded its global growth outlook, thanks in part to the U.S. economy's resilience.
Of the 373 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings through Thursday morning, 77% have posted better-than-expected results, LSEG data showed.
After the market closed, Apple reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly revenue and its shares initially rose.
"The common theme (this quarter) is those companies that are beating expectations aren't really being rewarded as much as they have in prior quarters," Nolte added.
"And those that are missing expectations are getting shellacked."
Among individual stocks, Qualcomm advanced 9.8% following its earnings beat.
Shares of used car platform Carvana surged 33.8 % on its upbeat profit forecast.
But disappointing profit guidance sent DoorDash's stock down 10.3 %.
Etsy shares slid 15.0 % after the online marketplace missed Wall Street expectations for first-quarter gross merchandise sales and profit.
Peloton dropped 2.5 % after the fitness equipment maker's CEO stepped down and the company announced a 15% cut to its global workforce.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 322.37 points, or 0.85%, to 38,225.66.
The S&P 500 gained 45.81 points, or 0.91%, at 5,064.2 and the Nasdaq Composite added 235.48 points, or 1.51%, at 15,840.96.
Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors ended higher, with tech firms leading the gainers.
Materials suffered the largest percentage loss.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 3.63-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.29-to-1 ratio favored advancers.
The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and eight new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 89 new lows.
Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 11.04 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Shristi Achar A and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futu ... 024-05-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Weak US productivity could threaten Fed's 'soft landing' hopes"
By Howard Schneider
May 2, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - Weaker U.S. productivity gains in the first quarter may challenge the Federal Reserve's efforts to finish its inflation fight without a painful rise in unemployment, potentially stalling progress on prices absent a further economic slowdown.
A jump last year in how much workers produce helped the economy grow fast and hiring remain strong while inflation fell nonetheless.
Data for the first three months of 2024, however, showed worker productivity rose at a 0.3% annual pace, compared to increases of more than 3% in the prior three quarters.
Unit labor costs, as a result, jumped 4.7%, the fastest in a year, as businesses spread higher wage and benefit payments across a comparatively small boost in what each person produced.
Analysts said the first-quarter results don't on their own disrupt what has been a core reason for optimism that the U.S. was heading for a "soft landing" in which inflation would return to the Fed's 2% target without the sort of sharp rise in joblessness associated with past battles against rising prices.
Productivity numbers are volatile, they noted, and even those reported for the first quarter leave a stronger yearly trend intact with reason to believe there will be further improvements.
But it also keeps alive the question of how much the Fed can count on additional improvement in the economy's ability to supply goods and services to help in the inflation fight, and how much will now rest on curbing demand - potentially dealing a blow to employment in the process.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was sensitive to the issue during a press conference on Wednesday after the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady in the current 5.25%-5.50% range while acknowledging that improvement in inflation had slowed and would require borrowing costs to remain high.
He said he still believes inflation can be returned to the Fed's target "without significant dislocations in the labor market or elsewhere."
Supply-side improvements, including higher productivity and faster immigration, "really helped inflation come down ... I'm not giving up on that."
"I think it is possible those forces will still work to help us," Powell said.
But, he added, there was no guarantee, and at the very least the process "will take longer than previously expected."
JOBS DATA
The U.S. Labor Department will release its employment report for April on Friday, providing the latest touchpoint for central bankers to assess whether the economy is moving towards a more sustainable pace of job and wage growth, as many feel it is.
Results for March from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, for example, showed balance continuing to emerge between the availability of workers and the demand for them.
Economists polled by Reuters expect firms hired an additional 243,000 workers in April, continuing a pandemic-era streak of job gains that a rising number of foreign-born workers has helped sustain even as wage growth moderates.
The unemployment rate has been below 4% for 26 months, a run not seen since the late 1960s.
The Fed doesn't want to wreck that streak, and the thinking under Powell has shifted away from what had been a working assumption that a low jobless rate stokes inflation to a more open-ended "show-me" attitude.
The approach served the Fed well last year.
Inflation fell sharply from the 40-year highs hit in 2022 even though the unemployment rate remained at levels that would, in some assessments of the U.S. economy, have kept price pressures elevated.
Even amid calls from top ranking economists that the unemployment rate had to rise for inflation to fall, the central bank unveiled its last rate hike in July.
But if "disinflation" loses steam it could make the Fed's endgame more difficult.
For now, Powell said the central bank is content to be patient and allow the current policy rate to do its work.
In the opening statement of his press conference on Wednesday, he excluded a phrase he had used in January and March that "it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year," cementing a shift in expectations for steady and substantial rate cuts this year to doubt about whether rates will fall at all.
The change in Powell's language has touched off a mini-cycle of financial tightening across credit markets, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate home mortgage jumping back above 7% and yields on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, considered a proxy for Fed policy, rising from roughly 4.2% in January to around 5% now.
Powell said this week that these trends will all eventually show up in the form of inflation falling towards 2% from a level that, based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was running at 2.7% in March.
But how long that journey takes and what happens to workers in the meantime will depend on factors - productivity among them - well outside the central bank's control.
The Fed may not be willing to risk damaging the economy with further rate hikes to achieve the last bit of inflation control.
But neither, Powell said, will policymakers rush to cut rates over a modest rise in unemployment.
"It would have to be a meaningful thing and get our attention and lead us to think the labor market was really significantly weakening" he said on Wednesday.
"A couple of tenths (of a percentage point) in the unemployment rate would probably not do that."
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/weak ... 024-05-02/
"Weak US productivity could threaten Fed's 'soft landing' hopes"
By Howard Schneider
May 2, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - Weaker U.S. productivity gains in the first quarter may challenge the Federal Reserve's efforts to finish its inflation fight without a painful rise in unemployment, potentially stalling progress on prices absent a further economic slowdown.
A jump last year in how much workers produce helped the economy grow fast and hiring remain strong while inflation fell nonetheless.
Data for the first three months of 2024, however, showed worker productivity rose at a 0.3% annual pace, compared to increases of more than 3% in the prior three quarters.
Unit labor costs, as a result, jumped 4.7%, the fastest in a year, as businesses spread higher wage and benefit payments across a comparatively small boost in what each person produced.
Analysts said the first-quarter results don't on their own disrupt what has been a core reason for optimism that the U.S. was heading for a "soft landing" in which inflation would return to the Fed's 2% target without the sort of sharp rise in joblessness associated with past battles against rising prices.
Productivity numbers are volatile, they noted, and even those reported for the first quarter leave a stronger yearly trend intact with reason to believe there will be further improvements.
But it also keeps alive the question of how much the Fed can count on additional improvement in the economy's ability to supply goods and services to help in the inflation fight, and how much will now rest on curbing demand - potentially dealing a blow to employment in the process.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was sensitive to the issue during a press conference on Wednesday after the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady in the current 5.25%-5.50% range while acknowledging that improvement in inflation had slowed and would require borrowing costs to remain high.
He said he still believes inflation can be returned to the Fed's target "without significant dislocations in the labor market or elsewhere."
Supply-side improvements, including higher productivity and faster immigration, "really helped inflation come down ... I'm not giving up on that."
"I think it is possible those forces will still work to help us," Powell said.
But, he added, there was no guarantee, and at the very least the process "will take longer than previously expected."
JOBS DATA
The U.S. Labor Department will release its employment report for April on Friday, providing the latest touchpoint for central bankers to assess whether the economy is moving towards a more sustainable pace of job and wage growth, as many feel it is.
Results for March from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, for example, showed balance continuing to emerge between the availability of workers and the demand for them.
Economists polled by Reuters expect firms hired an additional 243,000 workers in April, continuing a pandemic-era streak of job gains that a rising number of foreign-born workers has helped sustain even as wage growth moderates.
The unemployment rate has been below 4% for 26 months, a run not seen since the late 1960s.
The Fed doesn't want to wreck that streak, and the thinking under Powell has shifted away from what had been a working assumption that a low jobless rate stokes inflation to a more open-ended "show-me" attitude.
The approach served the Fed well last year.
Inflation fell sharply from the 40-year highs hit in 2022 even though the unemployment rate remained at levels that would, in some assessments of the U.S. economy, have kept price pressures elevated.
Even amid calls from top ranking economists that the unemployment rate had to rise for inflation to fall, the central bank unveiled its last rate hike in July.
But if "disinflation" loses steam it could make the Fed's endgame more difficult.
For now, Powell said the central bank is content to be patient and allow the current policy rate to do its work.
In the opening statement of his press conference on Wednesday, he excluded a phrase he had used in January and March that "it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year," cementing a shift in expectations for steady and substantial rate cuts this year to doubt about whether rates will fall at all.
The change in Powell's language has touched off a mini-cycle of financial tightening across credit markets, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate home mortgage jumping back above 7% and yields on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, considered a proxy for Fed policy, rising from roughly 4.2% in January to around 5% now.
Powell said this week that these trends will all eventually show up in the form of inflation falling towards 2% from a level that, based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was running at 2.7% in March.
But how long that journey takes and what happens to workers in the meantime will depend on factors - productivity among them - well outside the central bank's control.
The Fed may not be willing to risk damaging the economy with further rate hikes to achieve the last bit of inflation control.
But neither, Powell said, will policymakers rush to cut rates over a modest rise in unemployment.
"It would have to be a meaningful thing and get our attention and lead us to think the labor market was really significantly weakening" he said on Wednesday.
"A couple of tenths (of a percentage point) in the unemployment rate would probably not do that."
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/weak ... 024-05-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"US trade deficit narrows slightly in March"
By Reuters
May 2, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in March as a decline in imports was tempered somewhat by a plunge in exports.
The trade deficit contracted 0.1% to $69.4 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday.
Data for February was revised to show the trade gap widening to $69.5 billion instead of $68.9 billion as previously reported.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the deficit climbing to $69.1 billion in March.
Trade, through a surge in imports, was a large drag on gross domestic product in the first quarter.
The economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter after expanding at a 3.4% pace in the October-December period.
Imports dropped 1.6% in March to $327.0 billion.
Goods imports fell 1.6% to $263.8 billion.
There were decreases in imports of motor vehicles and parts as well as industrial supplies and materials, which include crude oil.
But imports of consumer goods increased $3.0 billion, boosted by pharmaceutical preparations.
Capital goods imports were the highest on record.
Services imports fell $1.1 billion to $63.2 billion, pulled down by transport and travel.
Exports tumbled 2.0% to $257.6 billion.
Goods exports plummeted 2.9% to $171.3 billion.
There were decreases in exports of capital goods, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds and beverages.
Exports of services fell $0.2 billion to $86.4 billion.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-t ... 024-05-02/
"US trade deficit narrows slightly in March"
By Reuters
May 2, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in March as a decline in imports was tempered somewhat by a plunge in exports.
The trade deficit contracted 0.1% to $69.4 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday.
Data for February was revised to show the trade gap widening to $69.5 billion instead of $68.9 billion as previously reported.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the deficit climbing to $69.1 billion in March.
Trade, through a surge in imports, was a large drag on gross domestic product in the first quarter.
The economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter after expanding at a 3.4% pace in the October-December period.
Imports dropped 1.6% in March to $327.0 billion.
Goods imports fell 1.6% to $263.8 billion.
There were decreases in imports of motor vehicles and parts as well as industrial supplies and materials, which include crude oil.
But imports of consumer goods increased $3.0 billion, boosted by pharmaceutical preparations.
Capital goods imports were the highest on record.
Services imports fell $1.1 billion to $63.2 billion, pulled down by transport and travel.
Exports tumbled 2.0% to $257.6 billion.
Goods exports plummeted 2.9% to $171.3 billion.
There were decreases in exports of capital goods, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds and beverages.
Exports of services fell $0.2 billion to $86.4 billion.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-t ... 024-05-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
RIGZONE
"Oil Posts Largest Weekly Drop Since February"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Friday, May 03, 2024
Oil posted its biggest weekly decline since February on signs of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, while traders continued to weigh the outlook for interest-rate cuts.
West Texas Intermediate settled near $78 a barrel, the lowest closing price since Mid-March.
Hamas is studying a proposal for a temporary cease-fire with Israel and plans to send a delegation to Egypt to continue negotiations.
The renewed chance of a pause in the war have decreased the geopolitical risk premium that was baked into crude prices for the past few months.
An unclear interest rate outlook is also pressuring crude as some Federal Reserve officials signal that interest rates may remain elevated for “some time,” which could drag on demand for oil.
Other signs of softening have pervaded the oil market this week, beyond the 6.8% drop for headline prices.
Gauges of the futures curve have weakened, indicating supplies are less tight, while options markets appear to have erased the war’s risk premium.
Still, crude’s nine-day relative strength index has been trading in overbought territory, which could signal the selloff was overdone.
The result is that prices are down about 10% from a five-month high in mid-April, with the fallout from Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel still limited and Washington pushing for an end to the conflict in Gaza.
A surprise jump in US crude inventories Wednesday drove prices down 3.6% in a day, and there are concerns about demand in top importer China.
The move lower has fueled speculation that OPEC+ will prolong output cuts, with almost 90% of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicting the group will extend curbs when it meets June 1.
There’s some potential for disagreement at the gathering, after the United Arab Emirates’ main oil company said it had increased production capacity, which would bolster the key member’s case to pump more crude.
Prices:
WTI for June delivery fell 84 cents to settle at $78.11 a barrel in New York.
Brent for July settlement slid 71 cents to settle at $82.96 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 2-article/
"Oil Posts Largest Weekly Drop Since February"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Friday, May 03, 2024
Oil posted its biggest weekly decline since February on signs of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, while traders continued to weigh the outlook for interest-rate cuts.
West Texas Intermediate settled near $78 a barrel, the lowest closing price since Mid-March.
Hamas is studying a proposal for a temporary cease-fire with Israel and plans to send a delegation to Egypt to continue negotiations.
The renewed chance of a pause in the war have decreased the geopolitical risk premium that was baked into crude prices for the past few months.
An unclear interest rate outlook is also pressuring crude as some Federal Reserve officials signal that interest rates may remain elevated for “some time,” which could drag on demand for oil.
Other signs of softening have pervaded the oil market this week, beyond the 6.8% drop for headline prices.
Gauges of the futures curve have weakened, indicating supplies are less tight, while options markets appear to have erased the war’s risk premium.
Still, crude’s nine-day relative strength index has been trading in overbought territory, which could signal the selloff was overdone.
The result is that prices are down about 10% from a five-month high in mid-April, with the fallout from Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel still limited and Washington pushing for an end to the conflict in Gaza.
A surprise jump in US crude inventories Wednesday drove prices down 3.6% in a day, and there are concerns about demand in top importer China.
The move lower has fueled speculation that OPEC+ will prolong output cuts, with almost 90% of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicting the group will extend curbs when it meets June 1.
There’s some potential for disagreement at the gathering, after the United Arab Emirates’ main oil company said it had increased production capacity, which would bolster the key member’s case to pump more crude.
Prices:
WTI for June delivery fell 84 cents to settle at $78.11 a barrel in New York.
Brent for July settlement slid 71 cents to settle at $82.96 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 2-article/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"10-year Treasury yield briefly dives below 4.5% as unemployment rate rises to 3.9%"
Samantha Subin @SAMANTHA_SUBIN Sophie Kiderlin @IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/ @SKIDERLIN
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 3 2024
U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Friday after April’s jobs report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls growth and an unexpected tick higher in the unemployment rate.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was off by about 7 basis points to 4.5%.
The 2-year Treasury yield was last 6 basis points lower to 4.814%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions.
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
U.S. payrolls expanded by just 175,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, short of the Dow Jones estimate from economists of 240,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, against an estimate that called for it to hold steady at 3.8%.
Wage growth was also less than expected, the report showed.
The Federal Reserve earlier this week kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations.
Policymakers noted that “it will not be appropriate to reduce the target range until [the Federal Open Market Committee] has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
However, Fed Chief Jerome Powell did acknowledge that a weakening labor market could cause the central bank to act, citing its dual mandate of stable prices and max employment.
“We’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market,” Powell said on Wednesday.
Uncertainty about how many rate cuts, if any, will take place this year and when they might begin has grown in recent weeks, with many investors now expecting fewer cuts and not until later in the year.
Friday’s weak labor report could allow the Federal Reserve to move sooner to cut rates.
“Powell said they were giving higher interest rates longer to work to bring inflation down closer to target, and now it looks like that was the right call,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
“Fed policymakers are keeping their fingers crossed that a soft patch in the labor market will lead to reduced price pressures in the second quarter.”
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/us-trea ... eport.html
"10-year Treasury yield briefly dives below 4.5% as unemployment rate rises to 3.9%"
Samantha Subin @SAMANTHA_SUBIN Sophie Kiderlin @IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/ @SKIDERLIN
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 3 2024
U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Friday after April’s jobs report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls growth and an unexpected tick higher in the unemployment rate.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was off by about 7 basis points to 4.5%.
The 2-year Treasury yield was last 6 basis points lower to 4.814%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions.
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
U.S. payrolls expanded by just 175,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, short of the Dow Jones estimate from economists of 240,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, against an estimate that called for it to hold steady at 3.8%.
Wage growth was also less than expected, the report showed.
The Federal Reserve earlier this week kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations.
Policymakers noted that “it will not be appropriate to reduce the target range until [the Federal Open Market Committee] has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
However, Fed Chief Jerome Powell did acknowledge that a weakening labor market could cause the central bank to act, citing its dual mandate of stable prices and max employment.
“We’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market,” Powell said on Wednesday.
Uncertainty about how many rate cuts, if any, will take place this year and when they might begin has grown in recent weeks, with many investors now expecting fewer cuts and not until later in the year.
Friday’s weak labor report could allow the Federal Reserve to move sooner to cut rates.
“Powell said they were giving higher interest rates longer to work to bring inflation down closer to target, and now it looks like that was the right call,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
“Fed policymakers are keeping their fingers crossed that a soft patch in the labor market will lead to reduced price pressures in the second quarter.”
Data also provided by Reuters
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/us-trea ... eport.html
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9%"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 3 2024
KEY POINTS
* Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.
* The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%. A more encompassing jobless rate edged up, to 7.4%, its highest level since November 2021.
* Consistent with recent trends, health care led job creation, with a 56,000 rise. Other sectors showing significant increases included social assistance (31,000), transportation and warehousing (22,000), and retail (20,000).
* Following the report, traders priced in a strong chance of two interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.
The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, lifting hopes that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates in the coming months.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an encouraging sign for inflation.
The jobless rate tied for the highest level since January 2022.
A more encompassing rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also edged up, to 7.4%, its highest level since November 2021.
The labor force participation rate, or those actively looking for work, was unchanged at 62.7%.
Wall Street already had been poised for a higher open, and futures tied to major stock market averages added to gains following the report.
Treasury yields tumbled after being little changed before the release.
The report raised the prospect of a “Goldilocks” climate where growth continues but not at such a rapid pace to force the Fed to tighten policy further.
“With this report, the porridge was just about right,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade.
“What would you like at this point the cycle?"
"We’ve had interest rates jacked up pretty high, so you would expect to see the labor market slow down a little."
"But we’re still at pretty high levels.”
Consistent with recent trends, health care led job creation, with a 56,000 increase.
Other sectors showing significant rises included social assistance (31,000), transportation and warehousing (22,000), and retail (20,000).
Construction added 9,000 positions while government, which had shown solid gains in recent months, was up just 8,000 after averaging 55,000 over the previous 12 months.
Revisions to previous months took the March gain to 315,000, or 12,000 from the initial estimate, and February to 236,000, a decline of 34,000.
Household employment, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, increased by just 25,000 on the month.
Workers holding full-time jobs soared by 949,000 on the month, while those hold part-time jobs slumped by 914,000.
The report comes two days after the Fed again voted to hold borrowing costs steady, keeping its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in more than 20 years.
Following the decision, Chair Jerome Powell characterized the jobs market as “strong” but noted that inflation is “too high” and this year’s economic data has indicated “a lack of further progress” in getting inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.
But market action shifted after the jobs report indicated an easing labor market and softer wage increases.
Traders priced in a strong chance of two interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first reduction expected to come in September, according to CME Group data.
“This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
“The first downside payrolls surprise in several months, as well as the dip in average hourly earnings growth, will bring the rate cutting dialogue back into the market and perhaps explains why Powell was able to be dovish on Wednesday.”
Though inflation has come well off its highs in mid-2022, it is still considerably above the central bank’s comfort zone.
Most reports this year have shown inflation around 3% annually; the Fed’s own preferred measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, most recently was at 2.8%.
Higher prices have been putting upward pressure on wages, part of an inflation picture that has kept the Fed on the sidelines despite widespread market expectations that the central bank would be cutting interest rates aggressively this year.
Most Fed officials in fact had been mentioning the likelihood of reductions in their public comments.
However, Powell at his post-meeting news conference Wednesday made no mention of the likelihood that rates would be lowered at some point this year, as he had in the past.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/jobs-re ... april.html
"U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9%"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 3 2024
KEY POINTS
* Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.
* The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%. A more encompassing jobless rate edged up, to 7.4%, its highest level since November 2021.
* Consistent with recent trends, health care led job creation, with a 56,000 rise. Other sectors showing significant increases included social assistance (31,000), transportation and warehousing (22,000), and retail (20,000).
* Following the report, traders priced in a strong chance of two interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.
The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, lifting hopes that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates in the coming months.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 on the month, below the 240,000 estimate from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an encouraging sign for inflation.
The jobless rate tied for the highest level since January 2022.
A more encompassing rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also edged up, to 7.4%, its highest level since November 2021.
The labor force participation rate, or those actively looking for work, was unchanged at 62.7%.
Wall Street already had been poised for a higher open, and futures tied to major stock market averages added to gains following the report.
Treasury yields tumbled after being little changed before the release.
The report raised the prospect of a “Goldilocks” climate where growth continues but not at such a rapid pace to force the Fed to tighten policy further.
“With this report, the porridge was just about right,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade.
“What would you like at this point the cycle?"
"We’ve had interest rates jacked up pretty high, so you would expect to see the labor market slow down a little."
"But we’re still at pretty high levels.”
Consistent with recent trends, health care led job creation, with a 56,000 increase.
Other sectors showing significant rises included social assistance (31,000), transportation and warehousing (22,000), and retail (20,000).
Construction added 9,000 positions while government, which had shown solid gains in recent months, was up just 8,000 after averaging 55,000 over the previous 12 months.
Revisions to previous months took the March gain to 315,000, or 12,000 from the initial estimate, and February to 236,000, a decline of 34,000.
Household employment, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, increased by just 25,000 on the month.
Workers holding full-time jobs soared by 949,000 on the month, while those hold part-time jobs slumped by 914,000.
The report comes two days after the Fed again voted to hold borrowing costs steady, keeping its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in more than 20 years.
Following the decision, Chair Jerome Powell characterized the jobs market as “strong” but noted that inflation is “too high” and this year’s economic data has indicated “a lack of further progress” in getting inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.
But market action shifted after the jobs report indicated an easing labor market and softer wage increases.
Traders priced in a strong chance of two interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first reduction expected to come in September, according to CME Group data.
“This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
“The first downside payrolls surprise in several months, as well as the dip in average hourly earnings growth, will bring the rate cutting dialogue back into the market and perhaps explains why Powell was able to be dovish on Wednesday.”
Though inflation has come well off its highs in mid-2022, it is still considerably above the central bank’s comfort zone.
Most reports this year have shown inflation around 3% annually; the Fed’s own preferred measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, most recently was at 2.8%.
Higher prices have been putting upward pressure on wages, part of an inflation picture that has kept the Fed on the sidelines despite widespread market expectations that the central bank would be cutting interest rates aggressively this year.
Most Fed officials in fact had been mentioning the likelihood of reductions in their public comments.
However, Powell at his post-meeting news conference Wednesday made no mention of the likelihood that rates would be lowered at some point this year, as he had in the past.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/jobs-re ... april.html