OIL, NATURAL GAS

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REUTERS

"Oil prices nearly flat as market weighs Chinese demand, North America supply increase"


By Nicole Jao

March 7, 2024

summary

* Delayed rate cut expected, likely to buoy dollar

* China Jan-Feb crude imports rise y/y - customs

* U.S. crude stocks rose as gasoline, distillate stocks drop


NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as markets weighed new economic data from China against increasing supply from the Western Hemisphere.

Brent crude futures settled flat at $82.96 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended 20 cents lower at $78.93.

China's import and export growth beat estimates, suggesting global trade is turning a corner in a positive signal for policymakers as they try to shore up economic recovery.

But even as China posted a 5.1% rise in crude imports during the first to months of the year from a year earlier, overall imports have been falling, continuing a trend of softening purchases by the world's biggest buyer.

"The import numbers were down substantially because they are not willing to pay full price for barrels," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

The lack of Chinese demand failed to impress the market, he said.

The global oil market is relatively well supplied with demand growth slowing and supply increasing from the Americas, the head of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) oil markets and industry division told Reuters on Thursday.

Oil inventories in the U.S. rose last week for a sixth week in a row.

"The market continues to be pulled around demand concerns in China, on the one hand, and increasing supply out of the Western Hemisphere," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

The markets were bracing for the likelihood that the Federal Reserve could delay its first U.S. interest rate cut to the second half of this year, which boosted the dollar, according to a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists.

A strong greenback dents demand for dollar-denominated oil among buyers using other currencies.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank still expects to reduce its benchmark interest rate this year.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 4.0% as expected.

Fuel consumption in India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, rose 5.7% year-on-year in February, aided by strong factory activity.

Additional reporting by Noah Browning in London, Florence Tan in Singapore and Arathy Somasekhar in Houston; Editing by David Evans and David Gregorio

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 024-03-07/
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Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS

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RIGZONE

"Oil Settles in Tightest Weekly Range Since 2021"


by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley

Friday, March 08, 2024

Oil eased lower as a brief outage on North America’s Keystone pipeline failed to shake prices out of the tightest weekly trading range in years.

West Texas Intermediate fell 1.2% to settle near $78, further retreating from the key psychological level of $80 a barrel.

Meanwhile, pipeline operator TC Energy Corp. confirmed Keystone’s integrity, adding that service was temporarily suspended “as a precautionary measure” and that no crude was released.

Oil has traded in a tight band this year, with even less volatility this week, confining Brent prices to their narrowest range since September 2021.

Cutbacks by OPEC+ and rising tensions in the Middle East and Red Sea have been balanced by surging supply from producers outside the cartel including the US.

Persistent concerns about China’s growth have added to headwinds.

Still, crude is getting support from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that the central bank is getting close to the confidence it needs to start lowering interest rates.

The dovish news pushed the dollar to its sixth session of declines, bolstering commodities priced in the currency.

Meanwhile, China’s oil demand has entered a low-growth phase as the nation shifts away from fossil fuels, the country’s biggest energy producer said.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery fell 92 cents to settle at $78.01 a barrel in New York.

Brent for May settlement slipped 88 cents to settle at $82.08 a barrel.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 0-article/
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RIGZONE

"Oil Shows Little Change Ahead of US Inflation Data"


by Bloomberg | Josyana Joshua and Alex Longley

Monday, March 11, 2024

Oil was little changed as traders wait to see if a week of key data inputs can break the market from its recent torpor.

Western Texas Intermediate futures edged lower to settle just shy of $78 a barrel after earlier dropping to the lowest intraday price in two weeks.

Investors are watching for a possible hotter-than-expected US inflation read on Tuesday, which could muddy the path for monetary policy.

Monthly oil market reports from the IEA, OPEC and the US are also due this week.

Oil is coming off its least volatile week since late 2021 as the market juggles competing bullish and bearish factors.

OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East tensions are being offset by rising supply from outside the group and persistent concerns around the economic outlook for top importer China.

“Prices over the past month have been pretty rangebound,” said Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X Management.

“Now it’s about whether major consumers like China can drive a recovery or not, and whether geopolitical issues like the wars and shipping blockages will do any further harm.”

Iran’s oil exports, meanwhile, have reached their highest level since 2018 — when former US President Donald Trump abandoned Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers and reimposed sanctions — the country’s oil minister said.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery fell 0.1% to settle at $77.93 a barrel in New York.

Brent for May settlement rose 0.2% to settle at $82.21 a barrel.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 6-article/
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Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS

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RIGZONE

"Oil Falls on Persistent Inflation and Stalled Supply Cuts"


by Bloomberg | Josyana Joshua and Alex Longley

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Oil dipped as signs of stubborn US inflation whipsawed wider markets and OPEC said its latest supply cuts stalled.

West Texas Intermediate settled below $78, after fluctuating between gains and losses, as stocks rebounded and shrugged off a higher-than-expected inflation print.

Brent futures retreated under $82 a barrel.

In addition to the US economic data, OPEC’s monthly report said Iraq produced more crude than its quota for a second month.

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting when policymakers gather starting March 19.

Slightly higher-than-expected CPI numbers are not likely to “rock the boat,” said Ole Hansen, a commodity strategist at Saxo Bank A/S, “overall a report that is unlikely to impact the thinking.”

Oil has advanced this year, but prices have been pushed and pulled by bullish and bearish dynamics.

OPEC+ supply cuts have been offset by higher output from outside the group, while concerns about Chinese demand persist.

Later this week, the International Energy Agency will provide a snapshot of the market.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery fell 0.5% to settle at $77.56 a barrel.

Brent for May settlement declined 0.4% to $81.92 a barrel.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 2-article/
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Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS

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RIGZONE

"Oil Prices Rise on Drawdown"


by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Oil rallied after US stockpiles declined for the first time in seven weeks and a Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia’s biggest refineries.

West Texas Intermediate rose 2.8% to settle near $80 a barrel after a government report showed US crude inventories shrank 1.54 million barrels last week.

While the decline was less than the 5.5 million-barrel drop projected by an industry group, markets still interpreted the report as bullish as it was the first drawdown in almost two months.

Bolstering crude’s gains earlier in the session was a strike on a Rosneft PJSC refinery with a capacity of 340,000 barrels a day, the latest in a slew of attacks on Russia’s oil-processing facilities.

While refinery outages usually hurt oil prices by boosting the amount of crude waiting to be processed, the attack signaled heightened geopolitical risks.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery rose 2.8% to settle at $79.72 a barrel in New York.

Brent for May settlement gained 2.6% to settle at $84.03 a barrel.

Benchmark oil futures have been stuck in a tight trading range this year.

Prices slipped Tuesday as OPEC said its latest supply cuts had stalled — with Iraq still producing above its quota — and as US inflation remained stubbornly high.

The Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that US oil production will increase faster than previously expected this year, which will help buoy global supplies as OPEC+ cuts back.

Ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show US exports to Europe are set for a fresh record this month.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 9-article/
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Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS

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RIGZONE

"Crude Futures Advance on IEA Supply Warning"


by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Josyana Joshua

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Oil Prices were bolstered Thursday by a warning from the International Energy Agency about Supply Shortages now forecasted through end of the year if OPEC+ reductions persist.

Oil rose to its highest closing price in 2024 as the International Energy Agency warned of a supply deficit throughout the year.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery rose 1.9% to settle at $81.26 a barrel in New York.

Brent for May settlement gained 1.7% to $85.42 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate settled above $81 a barrel, the highest since November and topping the key psychological level of $80, which has acted as a barrier for the past few months.

The IEA reversed an earlier forecast for a surplus and now expects a shortfall if OPEC+ continues output cuts in the second half of the year.

Crude has risen about 13% this year while remaining in a tight trading band for the last three months.

While production cuts from OPEC+ have shown signs of tightening supplies in the short term, output from outside the cartel has risen and traders are still concerned about demand in China.

Despite the recent leg higher, traders are expressing caution about fully buying into the rally as quick jumps have often led to selloffs in recent months.

Meanwhile in the US, crude inventories dropped for the first time in seven weeks, including a decline at the hub in Cushing, Oklahoma.

The drawdown pushed WTI’s prompt spread to strengthen to 57 cents in backwardation, the highest in a week.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/crude ... 5-article/
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RIGZONE

"Oil Holds Weekly Gains"


by Bloomberg | Josyana Joshua and Julia Fanzeres

Friday, March 15, 2024

Oil held steady near a four-month high as extended production cuts from OPEC and its allies boosted expectations that the crude market is headed toward a deficit.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery fell 0.3% to settle at $81.04.

Brent for May settlement was little changed at $85.34 a barrel.

Western Texas Intermediate edged lower but still settled above $81, capping a 3.8% gain for the week.

The recent rally accelerated after crude crossed its 200-day moving average of about $78.13, potentially drawing in traders seeking to benefit from oil’s momentum.

“CTA trend followers’ buying activity has buoyed the commodities complex,” said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“Current price action is more likely tied to speculative positioning than fundamentals.”

Crude rallied this week after US stockpiles dropped for the first time since January and the International Energy Agency warned of a supply deficit for the year, reversing a forecast for a surplus.

Geopolitical tensions also remain high after Ukraine attacked another Russian refinery.

Potential headwinds to another leg higher in the rally include rising non-OPEC supply and softer physical markets as refineries go through seasonal maintenance.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_h ... 2-article/
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RIGZONE

"Oil Climbs to Four Month High"


by Bloomberg | Josyana Joshua

Monday, March 18, 2024

Oil climbed to a four-month high as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries heightened geopolitical risks and key Chinese economic data beat estimates.

West Texas Intermediate rose more than 2% to settle above $82 for the first time since late October.

China’s factory output and investment grew more strongly than expected at the start of the year, and the nation refined a record amount of crude, figures on Monday showed.

Drone strikes over the weekend hit multiple plants in Russia, some deep within the country’s territory.

Diesel futures rose for a fourth straight session while gasoline futures climbed for the sixth.

Gasoline is currently acting as a “bullish driving force behind crude” as inventories come into question, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial.

Futures for the fuel have reached a six-month high and may have implications for both pump prices and crude prices if the rally continues.

“The strikes on Russian refineries added $2 to $3 a barrel of risk premium for crude last week, which remains in place as we start this week with more attacks over the weekend,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore.

Crude has broken out of the tight trading range that dominated the opening months of the year, with prices hitting the highest since early November in recent days.

The advance has also been underpinned by OPEC+ cutbacks to production, with the International Energy Agency warning of a supply deficit throughout the year.

That shift in outlook has seen banks including Morgan Stanley raising their oil-price forecasts.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery added $1.68 to settle at $82.72 a barrel.

Brent for May settlement rose $1.55 to settle at $86.89 a barrel.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_c ... 8-article/
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RIGZONE

"Oil Rises on Tightening Supplies"


by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Tightening oil supplies pushed West Texas Intermediate above $83 a barrel, extending a rally that has propelled prices to the highest since October.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have added pressure to fuel markets, driving up crude demand.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said 900,000 barrels of Russian refinery capacity is offline, adding a risk premium of $4 a barrel to oil prices.

Separately, Iraq plans to cut oil exports.

Crude’s upswing in recent days has seen several key market gauges turn more positive.

Options markets have their least bearish tilt in months, and key timespreads suggest traders are pricing in a tighter market.

Crude is on course for a third monthly advance after breaking free from a narrow range it had been trading in for much of the year.

OPEC+ supply curbs have helped to bolster prices, with Iraq’s this week promising to make good on its output cuts.

Data on Monday showed China’s factory output and investment grew more strongly than expected at the start of the year, and the nation refined a record amount of crude.

In the US, meanwhile, a still-robust economy has prompted Federal Reserve policymakers to be cautious about when they can start to cut.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery rose 75 cents to settle at $83.47 in New York.

Brent for May settlement climbed 49 cents to settle at $87.38 a barrel.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 5-article/
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RIGZONE

"Oil Falls After Trading in Overbought Territory"


by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

West Texas Intermediate fell about 2% to settle near $81, cooling a rally that had carried crude to the highest closing price since late October.

The pullback comes after prices were pushed into overbought territory and algorithms reached their maximum long positions.

With the tailwind of the automated buying diminishing, momentum for crude may be poised to flip to the downside, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Meanwhile, traders parsed a US inventory report revealing decreasing gasoline stockpiles in the face of refinery outages in Russia.

Additionally, implied demand for the motor fuel increased for a fifth straight week — still, the bullish refined products data wasn’t enough to counteract the market’s dour sentiment.

After starting 2024 in a tight trading range that had stifled volatility, crude broke out in recent weeks amid supply cuts delivered by OPEC+ and geopolitical risks, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries.

Meanwhile in Washington, Federal Reserve officials maintained their outlook for three interest-rate cuts this year, while signaling fewer reductions in 2025.

Prices:

WTI for April delivery, which expires Wednesday, declined $1.79 to settle at $81.68 a barrel in New York.

The more active May contract settled at $81.27.

Brent for May settlement slid $1.43 to settle at $85.95 a barrel.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 1-article/
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