THE DAILY NEWS

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Yahoo News

"Security officials testify Capitol rioters 'came prepared for war'"


BBC

Tue, February 23, 2021, 8:40 PM

US Capitol security officials who were ousted in the wake of the 6 January attack on Congress have blamed intelligence failures for the breach.

Testifying to a Senate committee, the officials said that the rioters "came prepared for war" with weapons, radios and climbing gear.


Ex-Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund said he had prepared for a protest, not "a military-style coordinated assault".

Four people died after pro-Trump protesters stormed the US Capitol.

Three of the four officials testifying on Tuesday to the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee resigned in the immediate wake of the attack, in which one Capitol Police officer was killed.

Acting Washington DC police chief Robert Contee III told lawmakers, who are holding the first public hearing into the attack, that he was "stunned" by how long it took for the Pentagon to deploy National Guard troops to help quell the riots.

Democrats charge that the attack amounted to an insurrection, and impeached former President Donald Trump for allegedly inciting the mob.

He was later acquitted by the Senate, becoming the first president in US history to be impeached twice.

What did officials say?

All three officials agreed that there appeared to be a level of co-ordination and planning from the crowd.

Mr Sund said that pipe bombs that were placed at the edge of the security perimeter appeared to be intended to draw law enforcement away from the Capitol building.

"When the group arrived at the perimeter, they did not act like any group of protesters I had ever seen," said the 30-year police veteran.

"A clear lack of accurate and complete intelligence across several federal agencies contributed to this event and not poor planning by the United States Capitol Police," he added.

Capitol Police Captain Carneysha Mendoza described the clashes, telling lawmakers that she has chemical burns on her face from attackers that still have not fully healed.

"Of the multitude of events I've worked in my nearly 19-year career in the department, this was by far the worst of the worst," she said.

"We could have had 10 times the amount of people working with us, and I still believe the battle would have been just as devastating."

The officials also said that an FBI report, warning that protesters had been preparing for "war", had failed to reach security officials on the eve of the attack.

Former House Sergeant-at-Arms Paul Irving said that despite media reports, "optics played no role in my decision around security".

He denied reports that officials did not want military troops at the Capitol out of concern that it would generate bad publicity.

His account appeared to be in direct conflict with Mr Sund, who testified that Mr Irving had "stated he was concerned about the 'optics' of having National Guard present".

"We all agreed the intelligence did not support" calling in the troops, said former Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Michael Stenger.

Mr Sund added that no civilian police force would have been equipped that day to repel the massive crowd.

Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is leading the hearing, said Pentagon officials will be called next week to testify about the deployment of National Guard troops.

Senators say the hearings will help determine new security measures - including a permanent fence - being considered for the Capitol in the wake of the attack.

What happened in the riot?

At the time, US lawmakers were meeting inside the Capitol to certify Joe Biden's presidential victory.

There was a pro-Trump rally that day on the National Mall, at which the former president spoke.

He repeated unfounded claims that the election was stolen from him, and told those gathered: "If you don't fight like hell you're not going to have a country anymore."

He also told them to protest peacefully but encouraged them to go to the Capitol and have their voices heard.

Thousands of his supporters then made their way to the seat of government, overwhelmed the security and smashed their way into the building.

At least 200 people have been charged for their role in the Capitol breach.

Over 140 Capitol police officers and 65 Washington DC police officers were injured in the hours-long melee.

Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, a 12-year veteran of the force, was killed in clashes with protesters.

Two more Capitol Police officers took their own lives in the weeks after the riot.

https://news.yahoo.com/security-officia ... 41659.html
thelivyjr
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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

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POLITICO

"Biden tosses Trump's classical architecture order"


By MATTHEW CHOI

02/24/2021 07:13 PM EST

Brutalists, rejoice!

Former President Donald Trump’s attempt to favor classical architecture got the ax on Wednesday as part of a sweeping scrapping of Trump-era executive orders by President Joe Biden.

Trump’s executive order in December, titled “Promoting Beautiful Federal Civic Architecture,” disparaged the modernist architectural styles of some federal buildings as “ugly” and a jarring contrast with local architectural styles.


The Trump administration hailed Greco-Roman-inspired buildings as an important homage to democracy in antiquity.

The executive order, signed in the final moments of the Trump presidency, promptly met condemnation from architects as aesthetically myopic, though it had relatively weak enforcement.

The order only placed a preference for classical styles in future buildings and did not outright ban brutalism.

“Though we are appalled with the administration’s decision to move forward with the design mandate, we are happy the order isn’t as far reaching as previously thought,” Robert Ivy, CEO of the American Institute of Architects, said in a statement at the time.

It was one of a number of Trump-era executive orders the Biden White House declared null on Wednesday.

Biden also rescinded an order threatening financing for cities that the Trump administration felt curtailed support for local police amid the summer’s anti-racism protests.

Biden also tossed an executive action that halted new visas amid the coronavirus economic crisis.


https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/2 ... der-471459
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Re: THE DAILY NEWS

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BBC

"Capitol riots: Who has the FBI arrested so far?"


Published 27 January 2021

The suspects in the Capitol riot are a varied group: they include a West Virginia lawmaker, a Florida firefighter and a left-wing activist from Utah.

It's been over two weeks since the Capitol Hill riot - how much progress has law enforcement made bringing the perpetrators to justice?

How many arrests so far?

Michael Sherwin, US Attorney for the District of Columbia, says they have identified 400 suspects and arrested 135 to date in connection with the Capitol siege.

He said the list of suspects is "growing by the hour," but conceded they might not have probable cause to charge all 400.

What's the latest?

A laptop stolen from the offices of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during the riot has not been recovered, a court has heard.

Investigators have searched the home and car of a Pennsylvania woman accused of helping steal the device, but to no avail, says her lawyer.

Riley June Williams, 22, of Harrisburg, was released from jail last week and is under electronic monitoring at her mother's house.

She has been restricted from internet use after prosecutors said she tried to delete her accounts and urged others to delete messages, too.

The FBI has said Ms Williams' former romantic partner tipped off authorities that she had appeared in pictures of the Capitol riot.

She allegedly claimed she hoped to sell the laptop to Russian intelligence.

She is facing multiple charges, including aiding and abetting the theft of government property.

The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Ms Williams had boasted on social media of stealing the laptop, but it is not clear if it was ever actually in her possession.

An aide to Mrs Pelosi said the computer was only used for presentations.

Who else has been charged?

A man allegedly seen in viral photos carrying a Confederate flag in the Capitol during the riots was charged on 14 January.

Authorities named him as Kevin Seefried and he appeared with his son, Hunter, in a Wilmington, Delaware court.

They jointly face charges including entering a restricted building, violent entry and disorderly conduct.

According to court documents cited by the Delaware News Journal, the duo got into the Capitol building through a window that Hunter helped break, before they "verbally confronted" US Capitol Police officers and the son took a selfie.

Mr Seefried Sr told investigators he normally flies the battle flag outside his home in Laurel, Delaware.

The Confederate flag is widely seen as a racist symbol as it was the banner of the slaveholding southern states that lost the US Civil War (1861-65).

A left-wing activist was also arrested after tweeting video of himself inside the US Capitol as protesters breached security.

John Sullivan, 26, was charged with entering a restricted building and violent entry or disorderly conduct.

He claimed in media interviews that he was just "documenting" the rampage, though the affidavit notes he has no press credentials.

The court document says Mr Sullivan can be heard saying in a video he filmed of the Capitol riot: "Let's burn this shit down."

He has identified himself in media interviews as a Black Lives Matter supporter, but rejects any association with antifa, a loosely affiliated group of far-left protesters.

Following the death of George Floyd last year, Mr Sullivan founded an activist group called Insurgence USA that advocates for racial justice.

He was charged in July 2020 with felony riot and criminal mischief over civil unrest in Provo, Utah.


Mr Sullivan - who was reportedly turned into authorities by his younger brother - was released without bail.

Two men who were allegedly pictured bringing plastic restraints into the Capitol were also arrested this month.

Authorities say Eric Gavelek Munchel is the individual seen carrying a number of plastic zip ties inside the Senate chamber.

He was detained in Tennessee.

Larry Rendell Brock, who is accused of entering the Capitol with a white flex cuff - a restraining device used by law enforcement - was arrested in Texas.

His ex-wife turned him in.

"When I saw this was happening, I was afraid he would be there," she told investigators, describing how she felt when she heard about the riots.

Then she saw the images, and she recognised her former husband: "It is such a good picture of him."

So far, neither has been accused of plotting to use the restraints, but face disorderly conduct and violent entry charges.

The FBI is still seeking dozens more individuals and has asked the public to help identify and locate them.

What are law enforcement officials saying about progress?

Steven D'Antuono, the head of the FBI's Washington field office, told reporters last week that they have been inundated with information and tips from the public.

As of 14 January, the Justice Department had received about 140,000 videos and photos.

Officials said they are considering filing serious charges of seditious activity against some individuals who were involved in the siege on the Capitol.

According to federal criminal code, seditious conspiracy means an effort to conspire to overthrow the US government.

The punishment is severe: up to 20 years in prison.

US Attorneys in Ohio, Minnesota, Kentucky and other states have also pledged to prosecute anyone who travelled from their regions to take part in the riot.

New details about how some of the rioters, or organisers of the assault, may have financed their operations have also been revealed by a cryptocurrency data firm, Chainalysis.

According to the firm, a number of far-right activists received hundreds of thousands of dollars in payments in Bitcoin before the assault on the Capitol.

Who are the key people charged so far?

Analysis by BBC Monitoring and BBC Reality Check

Robert Keith Packer

One of the most striking images from that day showed a man wearing a hoodie with the words: "Camp Auschwitz".

Auschwitz was a Nazi extermination camp where more than a million people, mostly Jews, were murdered during World War Two by Germany.

For many, the slogan showed some of the dark forces behind the protests.

Mr Packer was arrested in Virginia and has been charged with trespassing in a federal building and "violent entry and disorderly conduct" on Capitol grounds.

Jake Angeli - 'Q Shaman'

Jacob Anthony Chansley, known as Jake Angeli or as he describes himself the "Q Shaman", is a well-known follower of the unfounded QAnon conspiracy theory who lives in Glendale, Arizona.

QAnon supporters believe President Trump and a secret military intelligence team are battling a deep state cabal of Satan-worshipping paedophiles in the Democratic Party, media, business and Hollywood.

Known for appearing with a painted face, fur hat and horns while carrying a "Q sent me" banner in public, Mr Chansley, 33, has been charged with violent entry and disorderly conduct after appearing in multiple images inside the halls of Congress and the Senate chamber.

According to a local ABC news station, a judge has agreed that Mr Chansley should be "provided food in line with a shaman's strict organic diet" after he refused to eat the meals provided at the jailhouse.

Through his attorney, the defendant has requested a pardon from Mr Trump, citing "the peaceful and compliant fashion in which Mr Chansley comported himself" during the riot.

In videos posted to his social media accounts, he shouts about child-trafficking in front of government buildings or inside shopping malls, and attends pro-Trump or QAnon-linked "save our children" rallies.

Like many of his fellow QAnon followers, Mr Chansley says he believes Covid-19 is a hoax.

President Trump - viewed as a hero by the movement - has stopped short of endorsing the conspiracy theory but has described QAnon activists as "people who love our country."

Doug Jensen - QAnon

Doug Jensen, 41, from Des Moines, Iowa, appeared in one of the most widely shared videos of the riots showing a lone African American officer holding back the mob.

Mr Jensen has been arrested and faces five federal charges, including violent entry and disorderly conduct and obstructing a law enforcement officer during a civil disorder.

In it, he can be seen chasing a police officer up a flight of stairs inside the Capitol wearing a shirt with the QAnon slogan "trust the plan".

Mr Jensen later identified himself on his Twitter account, tweeting: "You like my shirt?" and "Me…" under images of him inside the Capitol shared by fellow QAnon supporters.

On his Twitter, Mr Jensen regularly expresses support for President Trump, engages with well-known QAnon accounts, and tweets QAnon phrases such as WWG1WGA - short for "where we go one we go all" - a rallying cry for the conspiracy's adherents.

Nick Ochs - Proud Boys

Nick Ochs was arrested at an airport in Honolulu, Hawaii, by the FBI, as he returned home from Washington DC.

He's accused of unlawful entry of restricted buildings or grounds, after he posted a picture smoking a cigarette inside the Capitol building, tweeting: "Hello from the Capital lol".

Mr Ochs describes himself as a "Proud Boy Elder from Hawaii".

The Proud Boys is an anti-immigrant and all male far-right group founded in 2016.

President Trump addressed this group specifically in the first presidential debate.

In response to a question about white supremacists and militias he said: "Proud Boys, stand back and stand by."

Richard Barnett

Richard Barnett is the man pictured with his feet on a desk in Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office.

He was also pictured outside the Capitol with a personalised envelope he took from her office.

He's been arrested for unlawful entry, disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds, and theft of public money, property, or records.

Mr Barnett is 60 years old and from Arkansas.

Local media reports say Mr Barnett is involved in a group that supports gun rights, and that he was interviewed at a "Stop the Steal" rally following the presidential election - the movement that supports President Trump's unsubstantiated claims of election fraud.

Derrick Evans

Less than a month after he was sworn in as a Republican delegate in the West Virginia state legislature, Mr Evans filmed himself pushing through the crowd as he stormed the Capitol wearing what appears to be a motorcycle helmet.

"We're going in," he said in the now-deleted Facebook live stream.

"We did it!"

"Derrick Evans is in the Capitol!" he yelled, adding, "patriots inside, baby!"

His participation in the riot led lawmakers in his home state to consider cutting off his access to the West Virginia statehouse.

But within a week of the riot, he had resigned.

He is facing federal charges of trespassing and disorderly conduct.

Other arrests include:

Nicholas Rodean - The Maryland man was fired from his job after he was seen wearing his work ID badge to the riot.

Aaron Mostofsky - The 34-year-old son of a Brooklyn judge was freed after posting a $100,000 bail.

Pictures from the riot showed him wearing furs and a police tactical vest that he is accused of stealing.

William Pepe - The New York City transit worker was suspended without pay after officials said he called out sick from work to travel to Washington and participate in the riot.

Andrew Williams - The Florida firefighter was arrested after a picture online showed him wearing a Trump hat and pointing to a placard bearing the name of Democrat Nancy Pelosi.

Josiah Colt - The Idaho man was pictured dangling from a Senate balcony after rioters stormed the chamber and is facing charges of disorderly conduct and trespassing.

Adam Johnson, 36, of Florida, was photographed holding up the House speaker's lectern and smiling during the Capitol siege.

He has been charged with theft of government property and the lectern has since been returned.

Jenny Cudd is the owner of a flower shop who once ran for mayor in Midland, Texas.

According to officials, she posted a video where she said: "We did break down Nancy Pelosi's office door"

Klete Keller, a two-time Olympic gold medallist swimmer, has been charged after online sleuths spotted that he wore his Olympic jacket to the Capitol.

Robert Sandford, a recently retired firefighter from a Philadelphia suburb, is accused of assaulting officers by throwing a fire extinguisher at them.

Jacob Fracker and Thomas Robertson, off-duty police officers from Rocky Mount, Virginia, are accused of trespassing and violent entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds.

Jon Schaffer, the guitarist from heavy metal band Iced Earth, faces six charges, including engaging in an act of physical violence in a Capitol building.

He was allegedly among rioters who sprayed Capitol police with bear spray.

Tam Pham quit his job as a Houston police officer after his police chief told reporters he had been part of the crowd that "penetrated" Congress.

The FBI says they found deleted selfies from inside the Capitol during a search of his phone.

Joseph Randall Biggs, 37, a Florida-based member of the Proud Boys, faces multiple charges including obstructing an official proceeding and unlawful entry.

Patrick Edward McCaughey III, of Connecticut is accused of assaulting a police officer with a clear plastic shield in a melee that was caught on camera.

Suzanne Ianni, 59, started anti-gay organisation "Super Happy Fun America" and travelled to DC with fellow Massachusetts resident Mark Sahady, 46, police say.

They are both charged with trespassing and disorderly conduct

Jorge Riley, a Republican activist from California, resigned his position in the state assembly after images on his social media accounts showed him inside the breached Capitol.

Samuel Camargo, 26, returned to Florida after the riot.

He turned himself into Washington DC authorities two weeks later after returning the Capitol for the Biden Inauguration.

Michael Joseph Foy, 29, is a Marine veteran from Michigan accused of assaulting officers with a hockey stick he was allegedly carrying during the riot.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canad ... 5Bisapi%5D
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RIGZONE

"Oil Prices Mixed Amid Tighter Market Signals"


by Bloomberg | Andres Guerra Luz

Thursday, February 25, 2021

(Bloomberg) -- Oil flipped between small gains and losses as the market weighed a tightening global supply outlook against indications prices may be overextended.

Futures in New York were little changed after chopping around a one-year high on Thursday.

The oil futures curve continues to signal a tighter market, with Brent’s nearest contract trading at a nearly $6 a barrel premium to the contract one year out in a bullish structure known as backwardation.

Still, technical indicators show crude hovering in overbought territory with the recent price surge.

“Looking forward in the market, we’re seeing a significant backwardation, which signals that there is an anticipation of an easing of virus restrictions coming,” said Gary Cunningham, director at Stamford, Connecticut-based Tradition Energy.

“The market is looking toward more normal inventories heading into the summer, if we don’t see a flooding of markets.”

Oil is up more than 20% so far this month with expectations global oil inventories will continue depleting heading into the summer and as economies worldwide begin to reopen.

While there’s been a raft of calls by banks for oil prices to further rally, the market is facing a possible supply increase in April from OPEC+.

The producer group meets next week to discuss its strategy with key members again differing on the path forward.

OPEC+ is “getting antsy now with prices being where they are,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC.

“They have a lot of spare capacity among themselves and the group, so it makes sense that they would want to respond.”

Prices

West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery slipped 20 cents to $63.02 a barrel at 1:14 p.m. in New York.

Brent for April settlement fell 47 cents to $66.57 a barrel.

Shale explorers reported almost 6 million barrels of combined oil-output losses during the freeze last week.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co., two of the largest producers in the Permian Basin, alone had a combined loss of about 3.8 million barrels, according to Bloomberg News calculations based on fourth-quarter earnings reports and calls.

Meanwhile, refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast are also in the process of coming back online, though some are still possibly weeks away from restarting production units.

Still, WTI’s nearest timespread surged further in backwardation on Thursday, with the front-month contract’s premium to the following month rising to as high as 31 cents a barrel.

That compares to a 24-cent premium earlier this week after the front-month contract rolled over into April.

Other oil-market news:

Exxon Mobil Corp. erased almost every drop of oil-sands crude from its books in a sweeping revision of worldwide reserves to depths never before seen in the company’s modern history.

The supertanker that became the one of most visible symbols of tension between the U.S. and Iran when it was seized off Gibraltar in 2019 has slipped quietly out of the Mediterranean Sea.

A planned overhaul of how the world’s most important benchmark crude price is calculated has caused a surge in trading of swaps used to hedge North Sea oil prices.

--With assistance from Alex Longley.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 7-article/
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CNBC

"The bond market is betting on a red hot economy and stocks don’t like it"


Patti Domm @in/patti-domm-9224884/ @pattidomm

Published Thu, Feb 25 2021

Key Points

Bond yields, which move opposite price, galloped higher Thursday as the market began to question how long the Fed can stay on hold if the economy booms as much as expected.

Yields rose on a combination of optimism for the economy as well as inflation concerns.

The 10-year yield was expected to reach 1.50% by year end, but it hit that level Thursday.

Growing inflation concerns, optimism the economy could surge and some technical factors are combining to drive interest rates higher at a rapid clip.

But on Thursday, for the first time, the market has begun to question how long the Fed can stay on hold when the economy could come thundering back.

Interest rates on the long end, meaning 10-year and 30-year yields, have been rising, but they were joined Thursday by 2-year and 5-year yields, an area impacted more directly by the Fed.

Yields rise when prices fall.

Bond yields have been rising with each positive development on the vaccine front and decline in Covid spread rates.

Couple that with more powerful fiscal stimulus, and the recovering economy could take off like a shot.

The House of Representatives is moving to approve the $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill by Friday, which would send funding to states, boost businesses and put $1,400 in cash in the hands of millions of people.

“I think this whole market is sort of a work in progress, trying to feel out where the economy is actually going and what will the Fed actually do,” said Ralph Axel, Bank of America U.S. rates strategist.

“We’re starting with a Fed that’s not supposed to hike [interest rates] until March 2023."

"That’s a good two years out.”

Axel said the Fed is still expected to remove policy very slowly, and it would first taper back on its bond buying program before it raises rates.

Bank of America expects Fed officials to discuss paring back the $120 billion a month bond purchases later this year but begin to taper down buying sometime next year.

“I think the heart of the matter is the the two levers the Fed has to pull is the taper schedule, or the QE schedule and the hike cycle,” he said.

“Those levers are very much at play with the changing expectation for the growth outlook.”

Fed rate hikes are still expected way in the future but those expectations changed slightly in the past day, since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday.

The fed funds futures market is now pricing in the first full rate hike for the first quarter of 2023 or March.

Axel said it had been priced in to the second quarter of 2023, in the month of May.

Futures also price a partial hike into October, 2022.

Axel expects the market to begin to discuss rate hikes later this year, as the economic data improves.

“Our GDP forecasts are off the chart,” said Axel.

Bank of America expects 8% growth in the second quarter, 11% in the third quarter and 5% for the fourth quarter.

“We’re also not yet including any kind of infrastructure bill into Q4.”

Axel said even if the time frame moves up on the Fed’s tightening of policy, it will still be in the distant future and the Fed will take it slow.

“Powell gave the green light for yields to go up."

"He said rising yields were the result of the strength in the economy,” said Michael Schumacher, director of rates at Wells Fargo.

Schumacher said the bond market was catching up to the optimism already seen in the stock market, as stocks traded to new highs.

“We’re getting no hint from the Fed that it wants to dampen this down,” he said.

“The Fed will have to come out and say something.”

The jump in Treasury yields is clearly spooking the stock market, but it’s reflecting forecasts for 6% growth this year and a strong 2022.

According to the CNBC/Moody’s Analytics survey, economists expect the economy to grow by a median 6% this year.

The S&P fell 2.5%, and Nasdaq fell 3.5%, as technology shares were particularly hard hit.

The 10-year Treasury yield, the U.S. benchmark was at 1.53% in late trading.

It had taken a wild ride to 1.61% just as the government’s 1 p.m. ET auction of $62 billion 7-year notes saw historically low demand.

The low of the day was 1.37%.

Jim Caron, head of global macro rate strategy at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said it’s the speed of the rise in yield that’s unnerving the market, since the consensus view was that the 10-year would reach 1.5% by year end.

“So far, this sharp move higher in UST 10y yields has only had marginal impact on equities and virtually no impact on credit spreads, as they are generally tighter today than where they were when we started the year."

"In addition, the US dollar has not strengthened on this move in yields either."

"All of which are components of financial conditions that are still easy, not tight, despite the rise in UST yields,” Caron wrote.

“Perhaps it could then be concluded that rising UST 10y yields reflect the recent upgrade in fundamental economic growth expectations and there is nothing nefarious at work,” Caron added.

Yields move opposite price, and the swift rise in the 10-year yield of more than 30 basis points (0.25) in 10 sessions has already impacted the lending market.

Mortgage applications fell 11.4% this past week as rates rose.


The bond market has been sensitive to the fact that a strengthening economy could also lead to some inflation.

As yields go higher, the bond market’s inflation expectations have also been rising and one market metric is pricing in average inflation at 2.32% over the next five years.

Inflation has barely been able to crack the Fed’s 2% target for years, and while volatile, economists do not expect it to become runaway.

Still, it is making markets nervous and yields have been rising all around the world, as commodities prices surge.

Oil is up about 18% just in the past month, and copper is up 17%.

Powell, in his comments this week, played down inflation as an issue and said the Fed expects to see bigger numbers this spring due to the base effects of the sharp drop off in prices last March and April when the economy was shut down.

But he does not see inflation running hot, even with strong economic growth, and he said it could be three years before inflation hits the Fed’s target consistently.

“It will be high in the near term because of the base effect but once you get past that, it’s probably around 2%, higher than it has been, but not enormously high,” said Schumacher.

The rise in rates has been a steady creep but on Thursday, the 10-year yield ran higher quickly and snapped suddenly higher temporarily around the auction.

One side effect of higher Treasury yields is that mortgage activity slows down.

That results in the mortgage market changing its tact in hedging and traders sell Treasurys, compounding the sell off.


Data also provided by Reuters

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/the-bon ... ke-it.html
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CNBC

"CDC study finds nursing home residents who appear to have recovered from Covid were reinfected with an even worse case"


Noah Higgins-Dunn @higginsdunn

Published Thu, Feb 25 2021

Key Points

* A new CDC study published Thursday suggests some people may be susceptible to reinfection from the coronavirus and could have worse outcomes following their second infection.

* Reinfection means that a person was infected with the virus, recovered and then later became infected again, though it’s thought to be rare, according to the CDC.

* The new study found five nursing home residents tested positive during two separate outbreaks with multiple negative tests in between, suggesting they were reinfected with the virus.


A new CDC study found that some elderly people who apparently recovered from the coronavirus later came down with a second, even worse case — indicating that asymptomatic or mild cases may not provide a lot of protection against becoming reinfected with Covid-19.

The study, published Thursday in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, studied two separate outbreaks that occurred three months apart at a skilled nursing facility in Kentucky.

Between mid-July and mid-August, 20 residents and five health-care personnel tested positive for the virus, according to the study.

The second outbreak, between late October and the beginning of December, was worse — 85 residents and 43 health-care personnel tested positive for the virus.

Among the residents who tested positive during the first outbreak and were still living in the facility, five of them tested positive a second time more than 90 days after their first positive test.

Though Covid-19 reinfections do happen, they are generally rare.

Through frequent surveillance after the first outbreak, all five residents had at least four negative tests between outbreaks, suggesting they were potentially reinfected with the virus later on, the study found.

Reinfection means that a person who had Covid-19 recovered and then got it again, according to the CDC.

“The exposure history, including the timing of roommates’ infections and the new onset of symptoms during the second outbreak, suggest that the second positive RT-PCR results represented new infections after the patients apparently cleared the first infection,” wrote Alyson Cavanaugh, one of the researchers who led the study.

While only two of the five residents experienced slight symptoms during the first outbreak, all five potentially reinfected residents showed signs of illness the second time.

The two residents who reported symptoms during the first outbreak “experienced more severe symptoms during the second infectious episode,” according to the study.

One resident was hospitalized and subsequently died.

According to the study’s researchers, this was “noteworthy” because it suggests the possibility that people who show mild to no symptoms during their first infections “do not produce a sufficiently robust immune response to prevent reinfection.”

The results “suggest the possibility that disease can be more severe during a second infection.”

“The findings of this study highlight the importance of maintaining public health mitigation and protection strategies that reduce transmission risk, even among persons with a history of COVID-19 infection,” Cavanaugh wrote.

The study noted some limitations.

Because specimens were not stored, researchers couldn’t conduct genomic sequencing, a laboratory technique that breaks down the virus’s genetic code, to confirm reinfection, researchers said.

Also, “no additional test results exist to support the initial test result as a true positive” during the first outbreak, they said.

It’s thought that the risk of reinfection for the general population is still low, but nursing home residents may be particularly at risk given their congregate living and high number of exposures, according to the study.

“Skilled nursing facilities should use strategies to reduce the risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission among all residents, including among those who have previously had a COVID-19 diagnosis, Cavanaugh wrote.

Data also provided by Reuters

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/cdc-stu ... covid.html
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CNBC

"10-year Treasury yield jumps to a one-year high of 1.6%, a rapid move unnerving investors"


Jesse Pound @jesserpound Vicky McKeever @vmckeevercnbc

Published Thu, Feb 25 2021

Key Points

* The 10-year traded as high as 1.614% during the session, which was the highest level since Feb. 14, 2020.

* The move higher in rates is unnerving investors fearing it could be driven by inflation rather than economic recovery.


The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly topped the 1.6% level on Thursday and traded at its highest level in more than a year, raising concern for investors across asset classes.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.51%, up about 12 basis points on the session.

A basis point is equal to 0.01%.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 2.286%.

Yields move inversely to prices.

The 10-year traded as high as 1.614% during the session, which was the highest level since Feb. 14, 2020.

Some traders described the jump above 1.6% as a “flash move,” and yields quickly fell back to near 1.5%.

The move higher in rates is unnerving investors fearing it could be driven by inflation rather than economic recovery.

The 10-year yield ended January at 1.09%.

It closed 2020 well under 1%.

So it’s moved more than a half percentage point in under two months, quite rapid for the bond market and relative to rates at these historically low levels.

“To be sure, if bond yields continue to rise and there is a smooth rotation out of growth and defensive stocks into value and cyclical stocks, the Fed will remain sanguine,” strategist Albert Edwards of Societe Generale said in a note.

“But the risk is growing that with so many bubbles blown by the Fed something will burst soon.”


The move marked the first time the 10-year has traded above 1.5% since Feb. 21, 2020.

The rise in Treasury yields lifted the entire curve, with short-term and medium-term yields rising as well.

Market-based measures continue to show signs of inflation pressures.

Though consumer prices were up just 1.4% from a year ago in January, recent indicators of retail sales, durable goods purchases and service sector prices have shown inflation in the pipeline.

The 5-year breakeven rate, an indicator of the bond market’s expectations for inflation, rose to 2.38% Wednesday, its highest level since before the financial crisis of 2008.

Still, policymakers continue to downplay the possibility of troublesome inflation ahead as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We could have a surge in spending as the economy reopens."

"We don’t expect that to be a persistent longer-term force, so while you could see prices move up that’s a different thing from persistent high inflation, which we do not expect,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a Senate committee hearing Wednesday.

Yields moved higher in afternoon trading following an auction of 7-year Treasury bonds.

Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, described the auction as “awful” and noted that dealers were stuck with a much higher percentage of the bonds than the 12-month average, reflecting weak demand.


Some strong economic data boosted yields further on Thursday.

Weekly data for new unemployment insurance claims came in at 730,000, below the 845,000 new claims expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

Data for durable goods also came in better than expected.

An update to the fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate came in at 4.1%, slightly above the advance reading released by the Commerce Department last month.

Stocks fell to new lows for the day as yields rose.

The Dow was last down more than 100 points.

Pending home sales data for January showed a 2.8% decline compared with the previous month, missing estimates.

— CNBC’s Patti Domm, Maggie Fitzgerald, Jeff Cox and Pippa Stevens contributed to this report.

Data also provided by Reuters

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/us-bond ... pdate.html
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REUTERS

"TREASURIES-Inflation bets, poor auction catapult key yield above 1.5%"


By Ross Kerber

February 25, 2021

Feb 25 (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields vaulted to their highest since the pandemic began on Thursday as the week's sell-off in bonds on rising economic expectations and inflation concerns continued, accelerated by a disappointing auction of 7-year notes at midday.

The 10-year yield was up 15.7 basis points at 1.5459%, and touched as high as 1.614%, the highest in a year.

The steepest points sell-off in the safe-haven security since May roiled the stock market, which broke with the more usual recent pattern of rising alongside yields as growing optimism about economic recovery encourages risk-on trading strategies.

A big move came in the early afternoon when an auction for $62 billion of 7-year notes by the U.S. Treasury showed poor demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.04, the lowest on record according to a note from DRW Trading market strategist Lou Brien, who called the result "terrible."

The trading also pushed up a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations.

It went as wide as 141 basis points, the most since 2015, and was last at 137 basis points, 13 more than at Wednesday's close.

Other parts of the yield curve also steepened.

Analysts said the trading showed investors positioning for price increases on goods and services internationally, even after top U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials tried to talk down rising yields.

"It's starting to become a momentum trade and the sell-off is becoming a global phenomenon," said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale.

Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week amid falling COVID-19 infections, Labor Department figures showed on Thursday, suggesting the labor market was slowly regaining traction.

A surprisingly large 3.4% jump in orders for large manufactured goods last month also bolstered the recovery picture.

Even so, Wall Street's main indexes dropped on Thursday, with the Nasdaq on track for its worst day in four months, as technology-related stocks remained under pressure after the rise in bond yields.

Even before Thursday's auction, yields on five-year and seven-year notes, the "belly" or middle of the curve, had risen significantly, following weak demand for a 5-year auction on Wednesday.

Analysts said the moves could reflect holders of mortgage-backed securities selling the bonds as they reduce risks on loans they manage, known as "convexity hedging."

Eurodollar futures, which track short-term U.S. interest rate expectations over the next few years, have priced in a U.S. rate hike by March 2023.

This pricing has been pulled forward from late-2023 in the past few weeks.

Similarly, Fed funds futures are pricing in a rate hike in early 2023, now in line with Eurodollar futures.

The U.S. secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), which measures the cost of borrowing cash overnight using Treasury securities as collateral, was at 0.02% on Thursday after dropping to 0.01% on Wednesday, the lowest since May 2020.

SOFR has replaced the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) as an interest rate benchmark for banks.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 4.3 basis points at 0.1701%.

The yield on 30-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities was at 0.239% after reaching as high as 0.307%, the highest in a year.

The 10-year TIPS yield was at -0.6% and the break-even inflation rate was at 2.172%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2KV3ET
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REUTERS

"Wall Street ends sharply lower, tech selloff weighs as bond yields climb"


By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

February 25, 2021

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes tumbled on Thursday, with the Nasdaq index posting its largest daily percentage fall in four months, as technology-related stocks remained under pressure following a rise in U.S. bond yields.

The Dow and the S&P 500 notched their biggest daily decline since late January.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a one-year high of 1.614%, prompting investors concerned about rich valuations to lock in profits on some high-flying growth stocks.

The Treasury note yield rose above S&P 500 dividend yield, wiping out the stock market yield’s strong advantage.

“Rates matter."

"At 1.5%, the yield is comparable to S&P 500 dividend yield,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

“And there’s no capital risk with a 10-year, you’ll get your principal back."

"All of a sudden it’s competitive with stocks,”

Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc, Facebook Inc and Netflix Inc dropped between 1.2% to 3.6%.

Despite the broad market slide, GameStop Corp shares surged again, leading a surprise resurgence of so-called “stonks” championed online by retail investors.

After doubling in the previous session, GameStop was almost 90% higher at its session peak but pared gains to close up 18.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 559.85 points lower, or 1.75%, to 31,402.01, the S&P 500 lost 96.09 points, or 2.45%, to 3,829.34 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 478.54 points, or 3.52%, to 13,119.43.

The S&P 500 technology sector fell 3.5%, as did communication services, which slid 2.6%, among the sectors that powered the market’s rally in 2020.

The S&P 500 growth index is nearly unchanged in February, sharply underperforming the value index, which has gained more than 7% on optimism related to a post-pandemic reopening of the economy.

“You’ve had an equity market that’s hit record highs many times this year and it’s expensive relative to historic norms,” said Chase’s Tuz.

“We were primed for a sell-off.”

Meanwhile, data showed fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week as COVID-19 infections fell, but the near-term outlook remained unclear after winter storms wreaked havoc in the South this month.

Optimism about more U.S. stimulus and a quicker pace of vaccinations at the beginning of the month have positioned the Dow Jones index for its best monthly gain since November.

“In the beginning of February, the stimulus news was the driving force but now that it has been priced in, there is nothing on the distant horizon for equity investors to be excited about and there is a concern that upside is limited,” said Mike Zigmont, head of trading and research at Harvest Volatility Management.

Tesla Inc fell 8.1% after a media report that the electric-car maker told workers it would temporarily halt some production at its California assembly plant.

Moderna Inc jumped 2.5% after the drugmaker said it was expecting $18.4 billion in sales from its COVID-19 vaccine this year.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.71-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 7.36-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 202 new highs and 39 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 15.84 billion shares, compared with the 15.61 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Stephen Culp

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN2AP1S1
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RIGZONE

"Oil Futures Slide As Dollar Gets Stronger"


by Bloomberg | Jessica Summers & Andres Guerra Luz

Friday, February 26, 2021

(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell the most since November with a stronger dollar and concerns surrounding inflation weighing on crude’s best start to the year on record.

Futures in New York declined 3.2% on Friday, with a rising dollar reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.

Yet, the U.S. crude benchmark still managed to post a nearly 18% gain this month as inventories worldwide tighten and pockets of demand return.

Domestic crude production dropped in 2020 for the first time in four years, according to the U.S. government.

“Prices have a little bit more risk to the downside from the recent run that we’ve seen,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member of the global macro program at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC.

“To continue going higher from here, demand has to come back pretty substantially.”

Crude prices have notched the largest year-to-date gain than in any year prior for the same time period, in part due to OPEC+ production curbs helping to deplete global stockpiles.

Plus, the unprecedented cold blast that recently halted millions of barrels of U.S. output means oil markets are about 100,000 barrels a day tighter than previously thought, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Supply scarcity may worsen in the coming months as North Sea fields undergo major maintenance.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet next week to decide on output levels.

While Russia has signaled it favors a further easing of production cuts, the country’s oil output dipped below its OPEC+ target this month, meaning it failed to take full advantage of the more generous quota it was afforded after January’s OPEC+ meeting.

“We all know the OPEC return to production is looming over the market pretty strongly,” said Gary Cunningham, director at Stamford, Connecticut-based Tradition Energy.

Continued declines in global supplies will “depend on how much production OPEC brings back and whether or not the sanctions on Iran are lifted.”

Prices

West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $2.03 to settle at $61.50 a barrel.

The U.S. crude benchmark rose 3.8% this week.

Brent for April settlement, which expires on Friday, declined 75 cents to end the session at $66.13 a barrel.

The contract gained 5.1% this week.

The more actively traded May contract declined $1.69 to settle at $64.42 a barrel.

Soaring bond yields on Thursday were the latest sign that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support that has helped fuel gains in risky assets during the pandemic.

While global bonds have since stabilized, a less accommodative approach to monetary policy could have ripple effects across commodity markets.

“Crude oil was in super overbought territory,” and due for a pullback, said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.

Plus, investors are “still anxious about rates ripping higher.”

Other oil-market news:

The Biden administration defended its decision to carry out airstrikes in eastern Syria overnight, saying the sites it hit are connected to Iranian-backed groups believed to be involved in recent attacks in Iraq.

ICE said it intends to continue to use a FOB reference for contracts related to Dated Brent that expire after June 2022 that already have open interest, according to a circular.

The U.S. State Department has identified a network of 76 Saudi individuals who may be subject to visa restrictions for their roles in counter-dissident operations overseas, including but not limited to the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.

--With assistance from Alex Longley and Sheela Tobben.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 9-article/
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