United Liberty
"Democrats Demand The Ability to Block Veterans From Owning Guns"
Story by Tony Bonnani
21 MARCH 2024
Over 140 Democrats in the House of Representatives are pushing for measures that could potentially restrict veterans’ Second Amendment rights.
Their proposal targets veterans who receive disability benefits and raises concerns about the implications for those who may struggle with managing their finances due to mental or physical challenges.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d8c2&ei=64
THE DAILY NEWS
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
RIGZONE
"Oil Edges Lower Amid Stronger US Dollar"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Oil edged lower as a stronger US dollar outweighed optimism that the Federal Reserve will stick to its path of interest-rate cuts this year.
West Texas Intermediate fell 0.3% to settle near $81 after a surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank strengthened the dollar, which typically pressures commodities priced in the currency.
That sapped the benefit of Fed officials maintaining their outlook for three rate reductions this year, which broader markets interpreted as dovish.
US benchmark crude dropped the most in about a month on Wednesday after a technical indicator suggested the recent rally was getting stretched.
Crude has posted a double-digit percentage advance this year, breaking out of a narrow range in recent weeks, after OPEC+ extended production cuts.
Geopolitical tensions including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and rising transport costs due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea have also supported prices.
However, gains have been limited by surging supply from outside the cartel.
Prices:
WTI for May fell 20 cents to $81.07 a barrel in New York.
Brent for May settlement slipped 17 cents to settle at $85.78 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_e ... 8-article/
"Oil Edges Lower Amid Stronger US Dollar"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Oil edged lower as a stronger US dollar outweighed optimism that the Federal Reserve will stick to its path of interest-rate cuts this year.
West Texas Intermediate fell 0.3% to settle near $81 after a surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank strengthened the dollar, which typically pressures commodities priced in the currency.
That sapped the benefit of Fed officials maintaining their outlook for three rate reductions this year, which broader markets interpreted as dovish.
US benchmark crude dropped the most in about a month on Wednesday after a technical indicator suggested the recent rally was getting stretched.
Crude has posted a double-digit percentage advance this year, breaking out of a narrow range in recent weeks, after OPEC+ extended production cuts.
Geopolitical tensions including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and rising transport costs due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea have also supported prices.
However, gains have been limited by surging supply from outside the cartel.
Prices:
WTI for May fell 20 cents to $81.07 a barrel in New York.
Brent for May settlement slipped 17 cents to settle at $85.78 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_e ... 8-article/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"2-year Treasury yield ticks higher as investors assess path ahead for rate cuts"
Samantha Subin @SAMANTHA_SUBIN Sophie Kiderlin @IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/ @SKIDERLIN
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 21 2024
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance on the potential path ahead for interest rate cuts.
The 2-year Treasury yield added about 4 basis points to 4.645%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was last flat at 4.271%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions.
One basis point equals 0.01%.
The central bank left rates unchanged at the conclusion of its March policy meeting, but signaled that it anticipates cutting three times this year.
However, policymakers failed to offer hints about when the rate cuts may come.
In a press conference following the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he expects interest rates to ease as long as it’s supported by the economic data.
“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this type of cycle, and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” he said.
The so-called dot plot, which reflects projections from Fed officials, also showed that policymakers are expecting three rate cuts for 2025, one less than provided in December.
Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a cut in June, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/us-trea ... dance.html
"2-year Treasury yield ticks higher as investors assess path ahead for rate cuts"
Samantha Subin @SAMANTHA_SUBIN Sophie Kiderlin @IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/ @SKIDERLIN
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 21 2024
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance on the potential path ahead for interest rate cuts.
The 2-year Treasury yield added about 4 basis points to 4.645%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was last flat at 4.271%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions.
One basis point equals 0.01%.
The central bank left rates unchanged at the conclusion of its March policy meeting, but signaled that it anticipates cutting three times this year.
However, policymakers failed to offer hints about when the rate cuts may come.
In a press conference following the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he expects interest rates to ease as long as it’s supported by the economic data.
“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this type of cycle, and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” he said.
The so-called dot plot, which reflects projections from Fed officials, also showed that policymakers are expecting three rate cuts for 2025, one less than provided in December.
Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a cut in June, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/us-trea ... dance.html
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Wall Street hits record closing highs on rate-cut optimism; chip sector rallies"
By Sinéad Carew and Bansari Mayur Kamdar
March 21, 2024
Summary
* Micron Technology surges after upbeat Q3 rev forecast
* Apple falls as DOJ sues company over antitrust laws
* Dow gets closer to 40,000 level
* Indexes up: Dow 0.68%, S&P 0.32%, Nasdaq 0.20%
March 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street's three major stock indexes on Thursday registered record closing highs for the second day in a row after the Federal Reserve reassured investors about the prospects for rate cuts this year while chip stocks rallied after Micron Technology's upbeat forecast.
The three major indexes had also hit fresh intra-day record highs earlier on Thursday and the Dow ended the day less than 1% away from the 40,000 for the first time.
Shares in Micron Technology finished up more than 14% after hitting an all-time high following a surprise quarterly profit and its forecast of third-quarter revenue above estimates.
Broadcom shares ended up 5.6% after TD Cowen upgraded its rating of the stock to "outperform".
Shares in Nvidia were also a big boost as it added more than 1% while the Philadelphia Semiconductor index rallied 2.3%.
U.S. stock indexes had also boasted record closing levels on Wednesday after U.S. central bankers kept borrowing costs unchanged and indicated they still expect to ease interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024.
"Earnings results are keeping semiconductors as market leaders but more broadly a risk on mode has stemmed from the dovish Fed on Wednesday," said Matthew Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said told reporters after the Fed's policy meeting on Wednesday that inflation reports "haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road to 2%."
But John Hancock's Miskin questioned whether the Fed is being overly optimistic about inflation and rate cuts.
"They're opening to door to let inflation risk seep back into the market."
"It's not there yet but it's a risk that could come later this year," he said.
In the meantime, however, economic data released earlier on Thursday added to investors' bullish moods.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February, signs the economy remained on solid footing in the first quarter.
"This economy continues to defy expectations and markets are loving every minute of it," said Miskin.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 269.24 points, or 0.68% , to 39,781.37, the S&P 500 gained 16.91 points, or 0.32%, to 5,241.53 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 32.43 points, or 0.20%, to 16,401.84.
Ten of the 11 major S&P 500 industry sectors were higher, with industrials leading gains, up 1%.
The weakest sector was communications services, which was down 0.2% with its biggest drag from Alphabet, down 0.1%.
Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 industry sectors were higher, with industrials leading gains and finishing up 1%.
The weakest sector was utilities, which ended down 0.2%, followed by a 0.17% drop in communications services, which saw its biggest drag from Alphabet, down 0.8%.
Goldman Sachs closed up 4.4%, leading gains in the Dow and in the rate sensitive bank sector.
The S&P 500 bank sector added 1.7%.
Apple bucked the market trend by closing down 4.1% after the U.S. Department of Justice sued the iPhone maker, the first major antitrust effort against the company by the Biden administration, alleging it monopolized smartphone markets.
Shares in IT services provider Accenture tumbled 9% after it cut its fiscal-year 2024 revenue forecast, with economic uncertainty prompting its clients to cut consulting services spending.
Reddit shares closed at $50.44 after it started trading on the New York Stock Exchange for the first time with at $47, which was 38% above its $34 initial public offer price.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.34-to-1 ratio on the NYSE which showed 918 new highs and 56 new lows.
On the Nasdaq Composite, 1,776 stocks rose and 1,400 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.27-to-1 ratio.
The S&P 500 posted 116 new 52-week highs and one new low while the Nasdaq recorded 365 new highs and 59 new lows.
On U.S. exchanges 11.43 billion shares changed hands compared with the 12.39 billion moving average for the last 20 sessions.
Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel and Aurora Ellis
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futu ... 024-03-21/
"Wall Street hits record closing highs on rate-cut optimism; chip sector rallies"
By Sinéad Carew and Bansari Mayur Kamdar
March 21, 2024
Summary
* Micron Technology surges after upbeat Q3 rev forecast
* Apple falls as DOJ sues company over antitrust laws
* Dow gets closer to 40,000 level
* Indexes up: Dow 0.68%, S&P 0.32%, Nasdaq 0.20%
March 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street's three major stock indexes on Thursday registered record closing highs for the second day in a row after the Federal Reserve reassured investors about the prospects for rate cuts this year while chip stocks rallied after Micron Technology's upbeat forecast.
The three major indexes had also hit fresh intra-day record highs earlier on Thursday and the Dow ended the day less than 1% away from the 40,000 for the first time.
Shares in Micron Technology finished up more than 14% after hitting an all-time high following a surprise quarterly profit and its forecast of third-quarter revenue above estimates.
Broadcom shares ended up 5.6% after TD Cowen upgraded its rating of the stock to "outperform".
Shares in Nvidia were also a big boost as it added more than 1% while the Philadelphia Semiconductor index rallied 2.3%.
U.S. stock indexes had also boasted record closing levels on Wednesday after U.S. central bankers kept borrowing costs unchanged and indicated they still expect to ease interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024.
"Earnings results are keeping semiconductors as market leaders but more broadly a risk on mode has stemmed from the dovish Fed on Wednesday," said Matthew Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said told reporters after the Fed's policy meeting on Wednesday that inflation reports "haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road to 2%."
But John Hancock's Miskin questioned whether the Fed is being overly optimistic about inflation and rate cuts.
"They're opening to door to let inflation risk seep back into the market."
"It's not there yet but it's a risk that could come later this year," he said.
In the meantime, however, economic data released earlier on Thursday added to investors' bullish moods.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February, signs the economy remained on solid footing in the first quarter.
"This economy continues to defy expectations and markets are loving every minute of it," said Miskin.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 269.24 points, or 0.68% , to 39,781.37, the S&P 500 gained 16.91 points, or 0.32%, to 5,241.53 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 32.43 points, or 0.20%, to 16,401.84.
Ten of the 11 major S&P 500 industry sectors were higher, with industrials leading gains, up 1%.
The weakest sector was communications services, which was down 0.2% with its biggest drag from Alphabet, down 0.1%.
Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 industry sectors were higher, with industrials leading gains and finishing up 1%.
The weakest sector was utilities, which ended down 0.2%, followed by a 0.17% drop in communications services, which saw its biggest drag from Alphabet, down 0.8%.
Goldman Sachs closed up 4.4%, leading gains in the Dow and in the rate sensitive bank sector.
The S&P 500 bank sector added 1.7%.
Apple bucked the market trend by closing down 4.1% after the U.S. Department of Justice sued the iPhone maker, the first major antitrust effort against the company by the Biden administration, alleging it monopolized smartphone markets.
Shares in IT services provider Accenture tumbled 9% after it cut its fiscal-year 2024 revenue forecast, with economic uncertainty prompting its clients to cut consulting services spending.
Reddit shares closed at $50.44 after it started trading on the New York Stock Exchange for the first time with at $47, which was 38% above its $34 initial public offer price.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.34-to-1 ratio on the NYSE which showed 918 new highs and 56 new lows.
On the Nasdaq Composite, 1,776 stocks rose and 1,400 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.27-to-1 ratio.
The S&P 500 posted 116 new 52-week highs and one new low while the Nasdaq recorded 365 new highs and 59 new lows.
On U.S. exchanges 11.43 billion shares changed hands compared with the 12.39 billion moving average for the last 20 sessions.
Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel and Aurora Ellis
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futu ... 024-03-21/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Red Sea fighting traps two oil ships in Houthi waters"
By Jonathan Saul, Noah Browning and Mohammed Ghobari
March 21, 2024
Summary
* Two oil ships stranded off Yemen's Red Sea coast
* Nearby fighting has prevented a U.N. deal to remove them
* One tanker has 1 mln barrels of oil onboard
LONDON/ADEN, March 21 (Reuters) - Two tankers, containing oil and toxic waste, are stuck in the Red Sea in the firing line between Western naval forces and Yemen's Houthi militants despite repeated efforts by the United Nations to empty and move the ships to avoid a spill.
The vessels, one of which has been stranded for years, are near the port of Ras Issa from where Iran-aligned Houthis launch missiles on ships passing through the Red Sea and where U.S. missiles land as they target the Houthis.
The United Nations last year led efforts to remove a million barrels of oil from the decaying tanker, the FSO Safer, to a new tanker, the MT Yemen, in an operation that cost $121 million.
The UN had hoped to move the FSO Safer, which still contains toxic waste water and oily residue, for disposal elsewhere and sell the oil aboard the MT Yemen.
Neither of the ships has moved since August as the Houthis and their foes in Yemen’s internationally-recognised government could not agree who should receive the money for the oil, a Houthi source speaking on condition of anonymity told Reuters.
The source also said there was no agreement to tow the ship away.
The UN Development Programme said it was in discussion "with all relevant parties in Yemen" about the handover of the vessel.
"(UNDP) has not had any indication from the de facto authorities in Yemen of threats to deliberately damage the vessel," a UNDP spokesperson said, referring to the Houthis.
A source with the internationally recognised Yemeni government, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said he believed the Houthis have refused to release either of the ships and were using them to increase their bargaining power.
TOXIC SLUDGE
A former supertanker built in the 1970s, the FSO Safer was converted into a floating storage and offloading facility for oil before the outbreak of civil war in Yemen in 2014.
It is so decayed its rotting hull threatened to spill its cargo into the Red Sea.
Last year, the United Nations contracted Dutch-based SMIT Salvage, which removed the oil.
Belgium's Euronav provided the MT Yemen vessel.
The toxic sludge and wash water used to scrub oil out of the tanker have still not been removed, a shipping source said.
He asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter and added that some 70,000 metric tons of residue were still onboard the FSO Safer.
A spokesperson for Boskalis, the parent company of SMIT salvage, said it had been contracted to remove the oil but not the Safer vessel.
Belgium's Euronav has maintained a crew onboard the MT Yemen since August under its contract with the UN.
"Once the handover process is complete, the crew will leave," the UNDP spokesperson said.
Euronav said it continued to assist the UNDP to safely handover the MT Yemen.
It did not specify who might ultimately receive the ship.
Reporting by Jonathan Saul, Noah Browning and Mohammed Ghobari; Editing by Simon Webb, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Barbara Lewis
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-03-21/
"Red Sea fighting traps two oil ships in Houthi waters"
By Jonathan Saul, Noah Browning and Mohammed Ghobari
March 21, 2024
Summary
* Two oil ships stranded off Yemen's Red Sea coast
* Nearby fighting has prevented a U.N. deal to remove them
* One tanker has 1 mln barrels of oil onboard
LONDON/ADEN, March 21 (Reuters) - Two tankers, containing oil and toxic waste, are stuck in the Red Sea in the firing line between Western naval forces and Yemen's Houthi militants despite repeated efforts by the United Nations to empty and move the ships to avoid a spill.
The vessels, one of which has been stranded for years, are near the port of Ras Issa from where Iran-aligned Houthis launch missiles on ships passing through the Red Sea and where U.S. missiles land as they target the Houthis.
The United Nations last year led efforts to remove a million barrels of oil from the decaying tanker, the FSO Safer, to a new tanker, the MT Yemen, in an operation that cost $121 million.
The UN had hoped to move the FSO Safer, which still contains toxic waste water and oily residue, for disposal elsewhere and sell the oil aboard the MT Yemen.
Neither of the ships has moved since August as the Houthis and their foes in Yemen’s internationally-recognised government could not agree who should receive the money for the oil, a Houthi source speaking on condition of anonymity told Reuters.
The source also said there was no agreement to tow the ship away.
The UN Development Programme said it was in discussion "with all relevant parties in Yemen" about the handover of the vessel.
"(UNDP) has not had any indication from the de facto authorities in Yemen of threats to deliberately damage the vessel," a UNDP spokesperson said, referring to the Houthis.
A source with the internationally recognised Yemeni government, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said he believed the Houthis have refused to release either of the ships and were using them to increase their bargaining power.
TOXIC SLUDGE
A former supertanker built in the 1970s, the FSO Safer was converted into a floating storage and offloading facility for oil before the outbreak of civil war in Yemen in 2014.
It is so decayed its rotting hull threatened to spill its cargo into the Red Sea.
Last year, the United Nations contracted Dutch-based SMIT Salvage, which removed the oil.
Belgium's Euronav provided the MT Yemen vessel.
The toxic sludge and wash water used to scrub oil out of the tanker have still not been removed, a shipping source said.
He asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter and added that some 70,000 metric tons of residue were still onboard the FSO Safer.
A spokesperson for Boskalis, the parent company of SMIT salvage, said it had been contracted to remove the oil but not the Safer vessel.
Belgium's Euronav has maintained a crew onboard the MT Yemen since August under its contract with the UN.
"Once the handover process is complete, the crew will leave," the UNDP spokesperson said.
Euronav said it continued to assist the UNDP to safely handover the MT Yemen.
It did not specify who might ultimately receive the ship.
Reporting by Jonathan Saul, Noah Browning and Mohammed Ghobari; Editing by Simon Webb, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Barbara Lewis
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-03-21/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"US economy on solid ground as weekly jobless claims fall, home sales surge"
By Lucia Mutikani
March 21, 2024
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims drop 2,000 to 210,000
* Continuing claims increase 4,000 to 1.807 million
* Business activity holds steady in March
* Existing home sales surge 9.5% in February
WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February, signs the economy remained on solid footing in the first quarter.
That was underscored by other data on Thursday showing business activity stable in March, though inflation picked up.
Even a gauge of future economic activity turned positive in February for the time in two years.
The United States continues to outshine its global peers, thanks to labor market resilience.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged, with policymakers upgrading their growth forecasts for this year and indicating they still expected to lower borrowing costs three times by year end.
Economists said the upbeat economic reports made it more unlikely that the U.S. central bank would start cutting rates before June.
"Companies are not laying off workers and the labor market remains relatively strong," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
"And now there are signs of life for existing home sales."
"This makes easing monetary policy at this juncture more problematic."
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended March 16, the Labor Department said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week.
Claims have been mostly bouncing around in a 200,000-213,000 range since February.
Despite a flurry of high-profile layoffs at the start of the year, employers have largely been hoarding labor after struggling to find workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unadjusted claims decreased 12,730 to 189,992 last week.
Applications in California plunged by 5,369, while filings in Oregon fell 2,580.
They more than offset notable increases in Michigan and Missouri.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday he did not see "cracks" in the labor market, which he described as "in good shape," noting that "the extreme imbalances that we saw in the early parts of the pandemic recovery have mostly been resolved."
The U.S. central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range since March 2022.
The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls portion of March's employment report.
Claims rose marginally between the February and March survey weeks.
The economy added 275,000 jobs in February.
Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, will offer more clues on the health of the labor market in March.
The so-called continuing claims increased 4,000 to 1.807 million during the week ending March 9, the claims report on Thursday showed.
"The labor market is gradually rebalancing, but the adjustment appears to be coming from less hiring rather than a surge in firings," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
"We expect job growth to slow somewhat but the unemployment rate to remain low this year."
HOUSING SUPPLY IMPROVES
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
The dollar was steady versus a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
In a separate report on Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales jumped 9.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million units, the highest level since February 2023.
The monthly increase in sales was also the largest since February 2023.
Economists had forecast home resales would fall to a rate of 3.94 million units.
Sales were boosted by an improvement in housing supply, with inventory surging 5.9% to 1.07 million units, the highest for any February since 2020.
Supply was up 10.3% from one year ago.
Home resales, which account for a large portion of U.S. housing sales, fell 3.3% on a year-on-year basis in February.
The housing market has been battered by the Fed's aggressive monetary policy stance as it fights inflation, and the signs of improvement in supply, together with retreating mortgage rates, bode well for the spring selling season.
Nonetheless, housing inventory is still well below the nearly 2 million units before the pandemic.
Homes in many areas, especially in the Northeast, continue to receive multiple offers, pushing out first-time buyers, who accounted for only 26% of transactions last month.
That share is well below the 40% that economists and realtors say is needed for a robust housing market.
A fifth of the homes sold last month were above listing price.
Many homeowners have mortgages with rates below 4%, discouraging them from selling their houses, contributing to the supply crunch and higher home prices.
The median existing home price increased 5.7% from a year earlier to $384,500 in February.
Home prices increased in all four regions, and could remain elevated with supply still likely to lag demand.
"If broader activity remains strong, a further normalization of home sales and new listings could be an indication that homebuyers are adapting to a higher level of rates," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.
The increase in sales means more brokers' commissions, which should boost the residential investment component in the gross domestic product report.
Goldman Sachs raised its first-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 1.9% annualized rate from a 1.7% pace.
The economy grew at a 3.2% rate in the fourth quarter.
The economy's improving prospects for this year were reflected in a fourth report from the Conference Board showing its leading economic index rebounded 0.1% in February after declining 0.4% in January.
That was the first increase since February 2022.
"The economy is poised to continue in expansion mode," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, a senior economist a BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 024-03-21/
"US economy on solid ground as weekly jobless claims fall, home sales surge"
By Lucia Mutikani
March 21, 2024
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims drop 2,000 to 210,000
* Continuing claims increase 4,000 to 1.807 million
* Business activity holds steady in March
* Existing home sales surge 9.5% in February
WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February, signs the economy remained on solid footing in the first quarter.
That was underscored by other data on Thursday showing business activity stable in March, though inflation picked up.
Even a gauge of future economic activity turned positive in February for the time in two years.
The United States continues to outshine its global peers, thanks to labor market resilience.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged, with policymakers upgrading their growth forecasts for this year and indicating they still expected to lower borrowing costs three times by year end.
Economists said the upbeat economic reports made it more unlikely that the U.S. central bank would start cutting rates before June.
"Companies are not laying off workers and the labor market remains relatively strong," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
"And now there are signs of life for existing home sales."
"This makes easing monetary policy at this juncture more problematic."
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended March 16, the Labor Department said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week.
Claims have been mostly bouncing around in a 200,000-213,000 range since February.
Despite a flurry of high-profile layoffs at the start of the year, employers have largely been hoarding labor after struggling to find workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unadjusted claims decreased 12,730 to 189,992 last week.
Applications in California plunged by 5,369, while filings in Oregon fell 2,580.
They more than offset notable increases in Michigan and Missouri.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday he did not see "cracks" in the labor market, which he described as "in good shape," noting that "the extreme imbalances that we saw in the early parts of the pandemic recovery have mostly been resolved."
The U.S. central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range since March 2022.
The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls portion of March's employment report.
Claims rose marginally between the February and March survey weeks.
The economy added 275,000 jobs in February.
Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, will offer more clues on the health of the labor market in March.
The so-called continuing claims increased 4,000 to 1.807 million during the week ending March 9, the claims report on Thursday showed.
"The labor market is gradually rebalancing, but the adjustment appears to be coming from less hiring rather than a surge in firings," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
"We expect job growth to slow somewhat but the unemployment rate to remain low this year."
HOUSING SUPPLY IMPROVES
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
The dollar was steady versus a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
In a separate report on Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales jumped 9.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million units, the highest level since February 2023.
The monthly increase in sales was also the largest since February 2023.
Economists had forecast home resales would fall to a rate of 3.94 million units.
Sales were boosted by an improvement in housing supply, with inventory surging 5.9% to 1.07 million units, the highest for any February since 2020.
Supply was up 10.3% from one year ago.
Home resales, which account for a large portion of U.S. housing sales, fell 3.3% on a year-on-year basis in February.
The housing market has been battered by the Fed's aggressive monetary policy stance as it fights inflation, and the signs of improvement in supply, together with retreating mortgage rates, bode well for the spring selling season.
Nonetheless, housing inventory is still well below the nearly 2 million units before the pandemic.
Homes in many areas, especially in the Northeast, continue to receive multiple offers, pushing out first-time buyers, who accounted for only 26% of transactions last month.
That share is well below the 40% that economists and realtors say is needed for a robust housing market.
A fifth of the homes sold last month were above listing price.
Many homeowners have mortgages with rates below 4%, discouraging them from selling their houses, contributing to the supply crunch and higher home prices.
The median existing home price increased 5.7% from a year earlier to $384,500 in February.
Home prices increased in all four regions, and could remain elevated with supply still likely to lag demand.
"If broader activity remains strong, a further normalization of home sales and new listings could be an indication that homebuyers are adapting to a higher level of rates," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.
The increase in sales means more brokers' commissions, which should boost the residential investment component in the gross domestic product report.
Goldman Sachs raised its first-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 1.9% annualized rate from a 1.7% pace.
The economy grew at a 3.2% rate in the fourth quarter.
The economy's improving prospects for this year were reflected in a fourth report from the Conference Board showing its leading economic index rebounded 0.1% in February after declining 0.4% in January.
That was the first increase since February 2022.
"The economy is poised to continue in expansion mode," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, a senior economist a BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 024-03-21/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"US business activity stable in March; inflation picks up"
Reuters
March 21, 2024
WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity held steady in March, but prices increased across the board, suggesting that inflation could remain elevated after picking up at the start of the year.
S&P Global said on Thursday that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, dipped to 52.2 this month from 52.5 in February.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector.
The modest slowdown reflected a further cooling in services sector activity.
Manufacturing climbed to a 21-month high.
The survey suggested that the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground, though the pace of growth probably slowed from the October-December quarter's 3.2% annualized rate.
The United States continues to outperform its global peers, despite 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022 to quell inflation.
The U.S. central bank on Wednesday left its policy rate unchanged at the current 5.25%-5.50% range, but policymakers indicated they still expected to reduce it by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of this year.
The S&P Global survey's measure of new orders received by private businesses slipped to 52.1 from 52.3 in February.
Its measure of prices paid for inputs increased to a six-month high of 58.9 from 55.5 in February.
The output prices gauge rose to 56.8, the highest reading since April 2023, from 54.1 in February.
Much of the price increases were in services.
With goods disinflation likely drawing to an end, the increase in services prices will need to slow considerably to keep overall inflation on a downward trajectory.
This month's increase in both input and output prices hinted at further rises in inflation in the coming months.
Consumer prices have risen strongly in the first two months of 2024.
"Costs have increased on the back of further wage growth and rising fuel prices, pushing overall selling price inflation for goods and services up to its highest for nearly a year," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
"The steep jump in prices from the recent low seen in January hints at unwelcome upward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months."
Manufacturing expanded further, with the survey's flash manufacturing PMI edging up to 52.5 this month, the highest reading since June 2022, from 52.2 in February.
Growth in new orders slowed, but employment increased and supply chains improved further.
Input prices rose.
S&P Global said "anecdotal evidence suggested that inventories had been built to a level sufficient to support current workloads."
The survey's flash services sector PMI slipped to 51.7 in March from 52.3 in the prior month.
The prices paid and input prices sub-components both rose, while employment was unchanged.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-b ... 024-03-21/
"US business activity stable in March; inflation picks up"
Reuters
March 21, 2024
WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity held steady in March, but prices increased across the board, suggesting that inflation could remain elevated after picking up at the start of the year.
S&P Global said on Thursday that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, dipped to 52.2 this month from 52.5 in February.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector.
The modest slowdown reflected a further cooling in services sector activity.
Manufacturing climbed to a 21-month high.
The survey suggested that the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground, though the pace of growth probably slowed from the October-December quarter's 3.2% annualized rate.
The United States continues to outperform its global peers, despite 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022 to quell inflation.
The U.S. central bank on Wednesday left its policy rate unchanged at the current 5.25%-5.50% range, but policymakers indicated they still expected to reduce it by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of this year.
The S&P Global survey's measure of new orders received by private businesses slipped to 52.1 from 52.3 in February.
Its measure of prices paid for inputs increased to a six-month high of 58.9 from 55.5 in February.
The output prices gauge rose to 56.8, the highest reading since April 2023, from 54.1 in February.
Much of the price increases were in services.
With goods disinflation likely drawing to an end, the increase in services prices will need to slow considerably to keep overall inflation on a downward trajectory.
This month's increase in both input and output prices hinted at further rises in inflation in the coming months.
Consumer prices have risen strongly in the first two months of 2024.
"Costs have increased on the back of further wage growth and rising fuel prices, pushing overall selling price inflation for goods and services up to its highest for nearly a year," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
"The steep jump in prices from the recent low seen in January hints at unwelcome upward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months."
Manufacturing expanded further, with the survey's flash manufacturing PMI edging up to 52.5 this month, the highest reading since June 2022, from 52.2 in February.
Growth in new orders slowed, but employment increased and supply chains improved further.
Input prices rose.
S&P Global said "anecdotal evidence suggested that inventories had been built to a level sufficient to support current workloads."
The survey's flash services sector PMI slipped to 51.7 in March from 52.3 in the prior month.
The prices paid and input prices sub-components both rose, while employment was unchanged.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-b ... 024-03-21/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"US eases tailpipe rules, slows EV transition through 2030"
By David Shepardson and Joseph White
March 20, 2024
WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - The Biden administration on Wednesday slashed its target for U.S. electric vehicle adoption from 67% by 2032 to as little as 35% after industry and autoworker backlash in the political battleground state of Michigan.
The Environmental Protection Agency instead adopted a “technology neutral” regulatory scheme that allows automakers far more freedom to meet emissions standards with gas-electric hybrids, which many environmentalists have opposed as a half-measure that delays the EV transition.
The agency also embraced “advanced gasoline” technologies to save fuel, such as turbo-charging, lighter vehicles or stop-start ignition systems.
EPA administrator Michael Regan told reporters the new rules would nonetheless achieve the same greenhouse-gas reductions as the original EPA proposal for a far more aggressive EV transition.
“Let me be clear, our final rule delivers the same, if not more pollution reduction," he said.
“We designed the standards to be technology neutral and performance-based to give manufacturers the flexibility to choose which combination of pollution control technologies are best suited for their consumers."
Regan emphasized there is “absolutely no mandate” to adopt electric vehicles.
The EPA acknowledged the rule cuts emissions by 49% by 2032 over 2026 levels compared with 56% under the proposal last year.
Regan said in an interview the reductions were "essentially the same" between the proposal and final rule.
The EPA's revised proposal reflects the political squeeze Biden faces in his re-election campaign.
For both Biden and his Republican rival, Donald Trump, the road to the White House goes through Michigan and other industrial states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where workers fear that the EV transition threatens jobs.
Trump has repeatedly excoriated EVs.
The emissions rules likely mark the last major environmental policy move Biden will make before he faces the voters in November.
BIG POLLUTION REDUCTIONS
The new rules, while softened, will nonetheless force dramatic emissions reductions.
The EPA said the plan cuts fleetwide tailpipe emissions by 50% over 2026 levels and reduces greenhouse-gas emissions by 7.2 billion tons through 2055.
The EPA’s percentage targets for EV adoption are not mandates but forecasts of how automakers will change their fleets to meet regulations.
Its projection on Wednesday came as a wide range — between 35% and 56% of all sales between 2030 and 2032 — rather than a specific target, reflecting the flexibility it emphasized for automakers to pursue different pollution-cutting technologies.
The new regulations will be easier, but hardly easy, for automakers to meet given the relatively low levels of U.S. EV and hybrid adoption now.
EVs last year accounted for less than 8% of vehicle sales.
Hybrids, including plug-ins, accounted for about 9% of sales, according to Cox Automotive data.
Hybrid sales, however, have surged in recent months as EV demand slowed, suggesting the new regulations could set off a hybrid boom.
Environmentalists and electric-vehicle makers such as Tesla have often blasted hybrids as a side-road on the way to an urgently needed transition to fully electric vehicles.
Tesla executive Martin Viecha repeated that mantra on Wednesday, posting on the X social media platform: “Unfortunately, people use plug-in hybrids mainly as gas cars, which means their CO2 emissions are far worse” than the EPA suggests.
And yet Tesla policy executive Rohan Patel acknowledged the practicality of the new standards in another post, calling them "less ambitious and therefore even more achievable."
Some climate activists had a harsher take.
“This rule could’ve been the biggest single step of any nation on climate, but the EPA caved to pressure from Big Auto, Big Oil and car dealers and riddled the plan with loopholes big enough to drive a Ford F150 through,” said Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity.
WIN FOR DETROIT
The United Auto Workers, which has endorsed Biden’s re-election campaign, cheered the more flexible regulations.
Its workers worry that EVs will cost auto jobs, which are often less plentiful and lower-paying in EV plants.
“By taking seriously the concerns of workers and communities, the EPA has come a long way to create a more feasible emissions rule that protects workers" building vehicles with internal-combustion engines, the union said, while also promoting "the full range of automotive technologies to reduce emissions."
The EPA rule goes easier on the Detroit Three's highly-profitable heavy duty pickup truck franchises than on passenger cars or lighter trucks.
By 2032, vehicles such as Ford's Super Duty pickups will be required to cut their CO2 emissions by 46%.
But they will still be allowed to emit more than three times as much as CO2 than a light-duty pickup such as the Ford F-150 or Chevrolet Silverado 1500, and nearly four times as much CO2 as a passenger car, according to an EPA statement.
Automakers won separate relief on Tuesday when the Energy Department softened and opted to phase in new rules that will reduce the mileage rating of EVs.
That will help the Detroit Three avoid billions of dollars in fines for not meeting fuel efficiency standards through 2032.
Shares in General Motors, Ford and Stellantis rose on Wednesday, with Ford up the most, up 3.5 % in afternoon trading.
Investors and analysts have been urging the Detroit automakers to slow investments in money-losing electric vehicles.
The Biden administration rules give them more leeway to do that.
The change in the final rules reflects lobbying by the UAW, automakers and car dealers.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing nearly all automakers except Tesla, said the new rules prioritize “more reasonable electrification targets in the next few (very critical) years of the EV transition."
Reporting by David Shepardson in Washington and Joseph White in Detroit, editing by Ben Klayman, Nick Zieminski and Brian Thevenot
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 024-03-20/
"US eases tailpipe rules, slows EV transition through 2030"
By David Shepardson and Joseph White
March 20, 2024
WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - The Biden administration on Wednesday slashed its target for U.S. electric vehicle adoption from 67% by 2032 to as little as 35% after industry and autoworker backlash in the political battleground state of Michigan.
The Environmental Protection Agency instead adopted a “technology neutral” regulatory scheme that allows automakers far more freedom to meet emissions standards with gas-electric hybrids, which many environmentalists have opposed as a half-measure that delays the EV transition.
The agency also embraced “advanced gasoline” technologies to save fuel, such as turbo-charging, lighter vehicles or stop-start ignition systems.
EPA administrator Michael Regan told reporters the new rules would nonetheless achieve the same greenhouse-gas reductions as the original EPA proposal for a far more aggressive EV transition.
“Let me be clear, our final rule delivers the same, if not more pollution reduction," he said.
“We designed the standards to be technology neutral and performance-based to give manufacturers the flexibility to choose which combination of pollution control technologies are best suited for their consumers."
Regan emphasized there is “absolutely no mandate” to adopt electric vehicles.
The EPA acknowledged the rule cuts emissions by 49% by 2032 over 2026 levels compared with 56% under the proposal last year.
Regan said in an interview the reductions were "essentially the same" between the proposal and final rule.
The EPA's revised proposal reflects the political squeeze Biden faces in his re-election campaign.
For both Biden and his Republican rival, Donald Trump, the road to the White House goes through Michigan and other industrial states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where workers fear that the EV transition threatens jobs.
Trump has repeatedly excoriated EVs.
The emissions rules likely mark the last major environmental policy move Biden will make before he faces the voters in November.
BIG POLLUTION REDUCTIONS
The new rules, while softened, will nonetheless force dramatic emissions reductions.
The EPA said the plan cuts fleetwide tailpipe emissions by 50% over 2026 levels and reduces greenhouse-gas emissions by 7.2 billion tons through 2055.
The EPA’s percentage targets for EV adoption are not mandates but forecasts of how automakers will change their fleets to meet regulations.
Its projection on Wednesday came as a wide range — between 35% and 56% of all sales between 2030 and 2032 — rather than a specific target, reflecting the flexibility it emphasized for automakers to pursue different pollution-cutting technologies.
The new regulations will be easier, but hardly easy, for automakers to meet given the relatively low levels of U.S. EV and hybrid adoption now.
EVs last year accounted for less than 8% of vehicle sales.
Hybrids, including plug-ins, accounted for about 9% of sales, according to Cox Automotive data.
Hybrid sales, however, have surged in recent months as EV demand slowed, suggesting the new regulations could set off a hybrid boom.
Environmentalists and electric-vehicle makers such as Tesla have often blasted hybrids as a side-road on the way to an urgently needed transition to fully electric vehicles.
Tesla executive Martin Viecha repeated that mantra on Wednesday, posting on the X social media platform: “Unfortunately, people use plug-in hybrids mainly as gas cars, which means their CO2 emissions are far worse” than the EPA suggests.
And yet Tesla policy executive Rohan Patel acknowledged the practicality of the new standards in another post, calling them "less ambitious and therefore even more achievable."
Some climate activists had a harsher take.
“This rule could’ve been the biggest single step of any nation on climate, but the EPA caved to pressure from Big Auto, Big Oil and car dealers and riddled the plan with loopholes big enough to drive a Ford F150 through,” said Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity.
WIN FOR DETROIT
The United Auto Workers, which has endorsed Biden’s re-election campaign, cheered the more flexible regulations.
Its workers worry that EVs will cost auto jobs, which are often less plentiful and lower-paying in EV plants.
“By taking seriously the concerns of workers and communities, the EPA has come a long way to create a more feasible emissions rule that protects workers" building vehicles with internal-combustion engines, the union said, while also promoting "the full range of automotive technologies to reduce emissions."
The EPA rule goes easier on the Detroit Three's highly-profitable heavy duty pickup truck franchises than on passenger cars or lighter trucks.
By 2032, vehicles such as Ford's Super Duty pickups will be required to cut their CO2 emissions by 46%.
But they will still be allowed to emit more than three times as much as CO2 than a light-duty pickup such as the Ford F-150 or Chevrolet Silverado 1500, and nearly four times as much CO2 as a passenger car, according to an EPA statement.
Automakers won separate relief on Tuesday when the Energy Department softened and opted to phase in new rules that will reduce the mileage rating of EVs.
That will help the Detroit Three avoid billions of dollars in fines for not meeting fuel efficiency standards through 2032.
Shares in General Motors, Ford and Stellantis rose on Wednesday, with Ford up the most, up 3.5 % in afternoon trading.
Investors and analysts have been urging the Detroit automakers to slow investments in money-losing electric vehicles.
The Biden administration rules give them more leeway to do that.
The change in the final rules reflects lobbying by the UAW, automakers and car dealers.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing nearly all automakers except Tesla, said the new rules prioritize “more reasonable electrification targets in the next few (very critical) years of the EV transition."
Reporting by David Shepardson in Washington and Joseph White in Detroit, editing by Ben Klayman, Nick Zieminski and Brian Thevenot
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 024-03-20/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
The Hill
"Mellman: The SOTU fails to move Biden’s numbers. That’s no surprise."
BY MARK MELLMAN, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR
03/20/24
It almost seems like they were setting him up.
The commentariat was unanimous and unambiguous: This year’s State of the Union speech would likely be the most important of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Politico wisely demurred on the significance of previous such addresses but created an exception for 2024.
“The State of the Union may be one of the most vastly overrated speeches in all of politics."
"But not this year.”
By Monday, NBC analysts were shaking their heads — “Eleven days have now passed since Biden’s State of the Union address, and the first polls conducted since then have been clear: The president’s numbers have barely budged.”
President Biden delivered a terrific speech.
He was feisty and energetic, strong and empathetic.
He communicated his accomplishments, laid out an agenda for the future and demarcated vital differences with Donald Trump and his band of Republican supporters.
But should anyone have expected numbers to budge?
Not those who pay attention to history.
Only rarely do State of the Union speeches meaningfully improve presidential approval ratings.
Since 1978, according to Gallup data, the average State of the Union produced literally zero change in the president’s approval rating.
Hard to get any smaller.
In 16 cases, approval ratings improved in the immediate aftermath of the State of the Union and in an ever so slightly larger number (17), approval ratings worsened.
Just five addresses yielded improvements of 4 percentage points or more.
Master communicator and former President Bill Clinton delivered three of those five.
Though pundits labeled him the “Great Communicator,” not one of President Reagan’s State of the Union addresses produced increases of more than 3 points, while his SOTUs generated declines of 4 points or more in two instances.
Former President Trump improved his standing with the American public in the wake of just one of his State of the Union speeches, and by just 2 points.
Yet, CNN’s instant poll of this year’s speech watchers found 65 percent expressing a positive reaction to what they heard, not a personal best for President Biden but better than Trump ever got, and better than all but the first of President Obama’s addresses.
However, while approval ratings are correlated with a variety of political outcomes, these questions, measuring reactions to what people heard, are uncorrelated with anything meaningful, including changes in approval.
The two highest scores on these questions were recorded by President Biden in 2021 and President Bush in 2001.
Both suffered declines in their approval ratings following those speeches.
So, this oft quoted statistic not only tells us nothing meaningful, but it can also result in a net loss of knowledge.
Why the disconnect between the importance attached to these addresses by commentators and their impact on the public?
First, size matters.
The assumption is that big audiences mean big effects.
According to Neilsen, more than 32 million Americans watched President Biden’s SOTU this year.
That’s a big number, but it’s only 12 percent of American adults.
Even big movements in a small swath of the country would produce a limited overall effect.
If a president raised his approval rating a vast 20 points among 12 percent of the population, he’d get a boost of less than 2.5 points in the country as a whole (assuming non-watchers didn’t move).
Second, in our highly polarized society very few people are open to changing their views.
Biden supporters already like him and Biden haters, well, hate him and aren’t really open to persuasion.
Third, those watching are concentrated in a particularly hard to move demographic — older people.
Their political habits are by now rather deeply ingrained.
Some 74 percent of the audience was 55 or older, while just 5 percent were18 to 34.
Finally, the instant surveys are, as they say, instant.
It takes a tightly closed mind to leave an hour-long presidential pitch completely unmoved.
Indeed, some 30 percent of Republican speech viewers reacted positively to President Biden’s latest SOTU.
But as Republican leaders take to the airwaves suggesting flaws and failings, distortions and disagreements, voters quickly settle back into their preexisting attitudes.
President Biden delivered a great speech, galvanizing Democrats, demonstrating he’s still at the top of his game, giving his troops talking points and marching orders.
But thinking a State of the Union speech will move numbers is fantasy in light of the historical precedents.
That takes, among other things, a full-fledged campaign, which is exactly what’s coming up.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, a member of the Association’s Hall of Fame, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.
https://thehill.com/homenews/4543322-me ... -surprise/
"Mellman: The SOTU fails to move Biden’s numbers. That’s no surprise."
BY MARK MELLMAN, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR
03/20/24
It almost seems like they were setting him up.
The commentariat was unanimous and unambiguous: This year’s State of the Union speech would likely be the most important of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Politico wisely demurred on the significance of previous such addresses but created an exception for 2024.
“The State of the Union may be one of the most vastly overrated speeches in all of politics."
"But not this year.”
By Monday, NBC analysts were shaking their heads — “Eleven days have now passed since Biden’s State of the Union address, and the first polls conducted since then have been clear: The president’s numbers have barely budged.”
President Biden delivered a terrific speech.
He was feisty and energetic, strong and empathetic.
He communicated his accomplishments, laid out an agenda for the future and demarcated vital differences with Donald Trump and his band of Republican supporters.
But should anyone have expected numbers to budge?
Not those who pay attention to history.
Only rarely do State of the Union speeches meaningfully improve presidential approval ratings.
Since 1978, according to Gallup data, the average State of the Union produced literally zero change in the president’s approval rating.
Hard to get any smaller.
In 16 cases, approval ratings improved in the immediate aftermath of the State of the Union and in an ever so slightly larger number (17), approval ratings worsened.
Just five addresses yielded improvements of 4 percentage points or more.
Master communicator and former President Bill Clinton delivered three of those five.
Though pundits labeled him the “Great Communicator,” not one of President Reagan’s State of the Union addresses produced increases of more than 3 points, while his SOTUs generated declines of 4 points or more in two instances.
Former President Trump improved his standing with the American public in the wake of just one of his State of the Union speeches, and by just 2 points.
Yet, CNN’s instant poll of this year’s speech watchers found 65 percent expressing a positive reaction to what they heard, not a personal best for President Biden but better than Trump ever got, and better than all but the first of President Obama’s addresses.
However, while approval ratings are correlated with a variety of political outcomes, these questions, measuring reactions to what people heard, are uncorrelated with anything meaningful, including changes in approval.
The two highest scores on these questions were recorded by President Biden in 2021 and President Bush in 2001.
Both suffered declines in their approval ratings following those speeches.
So, this oft quoted statistic not only tells us nothing meaningful, but it can also result in a net loss of knowledge.
Why the disconnect between the importance attached to these addresses by commentators and their impact on the public?
First, size matters.
The assumption is that big audiences mean big effects.
According to Neilsen, more than 32 million Americans watched President Biden’s SOTU this year.
That’s a big number, but it’s only 12 percent of American adults.
Even big movements in a small swath of the country would produce a limited overall effect.
If a president raised his approval rating a vast 20 points among 12 percent of the population, he’d get a boost of less than 2.5 points in the country as a whole (assuming non-watchers didn’t move).
Second, in our highly polarized society very few people are open to changing their views.
Biden supporters already like him and Biden haters, well, hate him and aren’t really open to persuasion.
Third, those watching are concentrated in a particularly hard to move demographic — older people.
Their political habits are by now rather deeply ingrained.
Some 74 percent of the audience was 55 or older, while just 5 percent were18 to 34.
Finally, the instant surveys are, as they say, instant.
It takes a tightly closed mind to leave an hour-long presidential pitch completely unmoved.
Indeed, some 30 percent of Republican speech viewers reacted positively to President Biden’s latest SOTU.
But as Republican leaders take to the airwaves suggesting flaws and failings, distortions and disagreements, voters quickly settle back into their preexisting attitudes.
President Biden delivered a great speech, galvanizing Democrats, demonstrating he’s still at the top of his game, giving his troops talking points and marching orders.
But thinking a State of the Union speech will move numbers is fantasy in light of the historical precedents.
That takes, among other things, a full-fledged campaign, which is exactly what’s coming up.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, a member of the Association’s Hall of Fame, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.
https://thehill.com/homenews/4543322-me ... -surprise/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
Bloomberg
"American Air 737 Runway Accident Linked to Brake Failure"
Story by Alan Levin
22 MARCH 2024
(Bloomberg) -- An American Airlines Group Inc. 737-800 went off the runway last month after a brake failure linked to maintenance performed on the plane, US investigators said Thursday.
The Boeing Co. jet touched down normally at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport but the plane’s brakes wouldn’t work, and it rolled off the end of the runway before coming to a stop, the National Transportation Safety Board said.
Investigators found that hydraulic lines in the brake system had been improperly connected in addition to problems with wiring, according to a preliminary report by the agency.
The incident is one of the more serious examples in a recent spate of airline mishaps that have received widespread media attention.
“The safety of our customers and team members is our top priority and we are fully cooperating” with the NTSB’s investigation, American said in a statement.
None of the 104 people aboard were hurt.
Pilots were able to slow the plane partially with the plane’s so-called thrust reversers, which use engine power to decelerate.
--With assistance from Mary Schlangenstein.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/a ... 01b4&ei=34
"American Air 737 Runway Accident Linked to Brake Failure"
Story by Alan Levin
22 MARCH 2024
(Bloomberg) -- An American Airlines Group Inc. 737-800 went off the runway last month after a brake failure linked to maintenance performed on the plane, US investigators said Thursday.
The Boeing Co. jet touched down normally at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport but the plane’s brakes wouldn’t work, and it rolled off the end of the runway before coming to a stop, the National Transportation Safety Board said.
Investigators found that hydraulic lines in the brake system had been improperly connected in addition to problems with wiring, according to a preliminary report by the agency.
The incident is one of the more serious examples in a recent spate of airline mishaps that have received widespread media attention.
“The safety of our customers and team members is our top priority and we are fully cooperating” with the NTSB’s investigation, American said in a statement.
None of the 104 people aboard were hurt.
Pilots were able to slow the plane partially with the plane’s so-called thrust reversers, which use engine power to decelerate.
--With assistance from Mary Schlangenstein.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/a ... 01b4&ei=34