THE DAILY NEWS

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RIGZONE

"Oil Rises Again With Brent At Three Year High"


by Bloomberg | Jessica Summers and Josyana Joshua

Thursday, September 23, 2021

The global benchmark crude rose 1.4% on Thursday to close at the highest level since October 2018, while U.S. crude futures advanced 1.5%.

U.S. equities rallied and the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.

Oil inventories are rapidly tightening.

Supplies in the U.S. are at the lowest since 2018 with output levels weaker after recent U.S. Gulf Coast storms, while stockpiles at a key hub in Europe remain below average levels for the time of year.

Some of the world’s largest oil traders and banks are predicting crude prices to surge even higher this year.

Vitol Group sees oil rising above $80 a barrel, partly as surging gas prices boost demand for crude in power generation.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said crude may top $90 if the coming winter in the northern hemisphere proves colder than normal.


Crude futures have steadily climbed higher this month as traders weigh the impact of a tightening natural gas market on the broader energy complex over winter.

The focus has led to cross-commodity flows across the oil and gas markets, some of which have been unwound in recent days, which had helped to push crude higher.

“We’re still not seeing a very robust recovery in U.S. production levels, so we have a situation where demand is deemed to look a little bit better and the supply side is at risk of not delivering what we thought,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank.

Prices:

West Texas Intermediate for November settlement advanced $1.07 to settle at $73.30 a barrel in New York, the highest level since July.

Brent for the same month added $1.06 to end the session at $77.25 a barrel.

Oil is most likely headed above $80 a barrel, partly as higher gas prices boost demand, Vitol Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy said in an interview from London on Thursday.

That could force OPEC+ producers to add more supply into the market, he said.

Currently, technical indicators show oil’s rally may be due for a pullback in the near-term.

WTI crude is flirting with the upper Bollinger band, a technical signal indicating the commodity is overbought.

(With assistance from Javier Blas, Alex Longley and Elizabeth Low.)

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
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CNBC

"10-year Treasury yield climbs higher as investors focus on Fed’s eventual taper"


Tanaya Macheel @TANAYAMAC Matt Clinch @MATTCLINCH81

PUBLISHED THU, SEP 23 2021

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield made up some of its overnight losses on Thursday and climbed to a two-month high after the Federal Reserve said that it may soon curtail its asset purchase program.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped 10 basis to 1.434% by 4:20 p.m., rising above 1.4% for the first time since July.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 9 basis points to 1.944%.

Yields move inversely to prices and one basis point is 0.01%.

The Fed said after its September meeting on Wednesday that the economic progress for the U.S. since the depths of the pandemic meant that the central bank may be able to withdraw some of its market support in the coming months, with the taper of its bond-buying program possibly concluding by the middle of 2022.

“If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,” the FOMC’s post-meeting statement said.

Elsewhere, weekly jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 18 totaled 351,000, topping the 320,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

The Bank of England on Thursday kept monetary policy unchanged and downgraded economic growth projections for the third quarter of this year.

Policymakers at the BOE voted unanimously to leave its main interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.1% and opted to stick to its asset purchase target of £875 billion ($1.2 trillion).

Meanwhile, the Norges Bank on Thursday become the first major Western central bank to raise interest rates following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

After cutting rates three times in 2020 due the economic fallout from the crisis, Norway’s central bank unanimously decided to raise rates to 0.25% from zero.

—CNBC’s Hannah Miao and Jesse Pound contributed to this article.

Data also provided by Reuters

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/23/treasur ... uying.html
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CNBC

"Weekly jobless claims total 351,000, worse than expected"


Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

PUBLISHED THU, SEP 23 2021

KEY POINTS

* First-time jobless claims totaled 351,000 last week, an increase from 16,000 a week before and well ahead of the 320,000 Dow Jones estimate.

* Continuing claims increased by 181,000 to 2.84 million.

* The total receiving benefits under all programs fell sharply as enhanced federal programs wound down.


First-time filings for unemployment benefits jumped last week, hitting the highest level in a month, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Initial claims for the week ended Sept. 18 on a seasonally adjusted basis totaled 351,000, an increase from the previous week’s upwardly revised 335,000 and well ahead of the 320,000 Dow Jones estimate.

The total was the highest since the week of Aug. 21.

Markets reacted little to the news, with stock market futures pointing to a strong opening while safe-haven government bonds saw yields rise, an indication that investors were selling fixed income as yields move opposite price.

The latest claims figures show that while the jobs market has come a long way since the early days of the pandemic, there’s still work to be done before it’s healed.

Continuing claims data, which runs a week behind, also increased, rising 181,000 to total more than 2.84 million.

The four-week moving average for initial claims, which irons out weekly volatility, is now at 335,750, which is actually a decrease of 750 from a week ago.

Just prior to the pandemic declaration, that total was around 215,000.

A year ago, it was at 869,000.

The four-week moving average for continuing claims fell 15,750 to just over 2.8 million.

That number was 1.73 million prior to the pandemic and 12.6 million a year ago.

As enhanced unemployment benefits related to the pandemic wind down, the total of those receiving benefits also is declining, dropping by 856,440 to 11.25 million.

The expiration is expected to cut benefits completely to about 7 million people, while 3 million others will lose the extra $300 a week on top of their regular compensation, according to Bank of America.

Two states accounted for the biggest share of the jump, according to unadjusted data.

California saw a surge of 24,221 filings, while Virginia jumped by 12,879.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/23/us-week ... imate.html
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REUTERS

"U.S. congressional Democrats report deal to pay for Biden spending plans"


By Richard Cowan, David Morgan

SEPTEMBER 23, 2021

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top two Democrats in the U.S. Congress on Thursday said they had reached a deal to pay for President Joe Biden’s sweeping social agenda, as the White House warned federal agencies to begin preparing for the possibility of a government shutdown.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi provided no details on how they would pay for Biden’s proposed $3.5 trillion social spending plan.


The party remains deeply divided about the bill, with moderates objecting to its size and progressives saying they won’t accept anything smaller.

Even as that intra-party fight is playing out, Congress faces a pair of critical fast-approaching deadlines.

Funding for federal agencies will run out on Oct. 1 if lawmakers don’t act, which would prompt a partial shutdown of the federal government.

The U.S. Treasury has also warned that unless Congress raises or temporarily lifts the nation’s borrowing limit it will run out of money to pay the government’s bills by mid-October, which could cause a historic default.

Republicans, who see the debt ceiling debate as a way to derail or scale back Biden’s agenda, have vowed to oppose the debt ceiling and government funding measure that passed the House of Representatives on Tuesday.

The White House characterized its warning to federal agencies to prepare for a possible government shutdown as a formality.

“It’s just a reminder,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.

“We’re seven days out, and we need to be prepared, of course, in any event of any contingency.”

Still, even with those risks approaching, Pelosi and Schumer sought to present Thursday’s deal as a victory the morning after Biden met with congressional Democrats to try to hash out an agreement on the size of the package.

“We know that we can cover the proposals that the president has put forth,” Pelosi said at a news conference.

“This is a giant step forward.”

Neither she nor Schumer offered details about the agreement or the overall price of the legislative package.


Multiple members of the Democratic rank and file said they have not yet seen the framework.

BRIDGING MODERATES, PROGRESSIVES

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden said the framework was a bid to overcome differences between moderate and progressive Democrats, whose support is crucial to enacting Biden’s legislation without Republican votes.

Democrats’ razor-thin majorities leave them just three votes to spare in the House and none in the Senate if all Republicans vote against them.

“The moderates are right when they say you ought to pay for the areas you want to invest in,” Wyden told reporters.

“I also believe that the issue of paying for things has to bring in a new measure of fairness and everybody’s got to pay their fair share, and that’s what we’re working on.”

Democratic moderates and progressives have sparred over the scale of the president’s spending plan, as well as a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill the House is due to consider on Monday.

The framework announcement signals agreement between the chairs of the House and Senate tax-writing committees on a menu of options that could be used to pay for the emerging spending bill, according to a Senate Democratic aide.

The Senate next week plans to vote on a measure to suspend the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling and keep federal agencies operating after Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year.

Reporting by Richard Cowan, David Morgan, Nandita Bose and Lisa Lambert; Editing by Andy Sullivan, Mark Porter and Howard Goller

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN2GJ1D7
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REUTERS

"TREASURIES-Treasury yields jump as central banks tighten their outlook"


By Herbert Lash

SEPTEMBER 23, 2021

NEW YORK, Sept 23 - U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Thursday after the Federal Reserve opened the door to raising interest rates as early as next year, a potential move that was reinforced by the Bank of England's outlook on rates and a rate hike by the Norwegian central bank.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note shot above 1.4% to their highest since mid-July as selling pressure on UK gilts spilled into the Treasury market after the tightening message from the European central banks.
   
The sudden move higher in yields surprised the market after the muted reaction to the Fed's hawkish stance on Wednesday.

The U.S. central bank said it would reduce its monthly bond purchases "soon" and half of the Fed's policymakers projected borrowing costs will need to rise in 2022.
   
"The central banks are starting to finally get the message that they actually need to tighten."

"The pandemic's basically over," said Tom di Galoma, managing director of Seaport Global Holdings in Greenwich, Connecticut.


Bond prices, which move opposite to their yield, plunged in afternoon trading and tripped sell stops, said Kim Rupert, managing director, fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco.
   
The hawkish shift among Fed policymakers, similar signs by other central banks and the risk rally in stocks weighed heavily on Treasuries, she said.
   
Treasury's announcement of $183 billion shorter-dated coupon auctions for next week, unchanged in size so far this year, also weighed, she said.
   
"Take a step back and just think about how low yields are even relative to where we were in the first quarter of this year," said Zachary Griffiths, macro strategist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"We do have very high inflation, high economic growth forecasts and it's really been kind of hard to justify where yields have been up to this point."
   
The BofE said the case for higher rates "appeared to have strengthened," leading interest rate futures to price in a 90% chance that the British central bank would raise rates by February.

Short-dated British government bond yields soared to their highest since the market turmoil of March 2020.

Norges Bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% from zero and expects to hike again in December, saying a strong recovery in the Norwegian economy made it time to start a gradual normalization of monetary policies.

It became the first major central bank to tighten policy since the COVID-19 crisis began.

European Central Bank policymakers, meanwhile, are bracing for inflation to exceed the bank's already-raised estimates, paving the way to end its emergency bond purchases in March, sources involved in the discussion said.

"Accounts are looking at this move in UK gilts, which is causing a lot of the selling in Europe," di Galoma said.

"Accounts are sensing that rates are going to head higher in the fall, and they're trying to get in front of it."
 
The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 8.4 basis points to 1.415%, while the 30-year Treasury note topped 1.93%, before retreating a bit.
   
The Fed's reverse repo facility, which provides approved money managers the option to lend money overnight to the U.S. central bank in return for Treasury collateral, set a fresh record $1.352 trillion, or $128 billion more than on Monday.

Borrowing rates remained at 5 basis points.
   
The five-year note rose above 90 basis points for the first time since early July, with the target on five-year notes now around 1% and more repricing likely in store as the market assesses Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish stance as he's considered dovish, di Galoma said.
   
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 115.4 basis points.
   
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 1.9 basis points at 0.259%.
   
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.489%.
   
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.328%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.33% a year for the next decade.
   
The Treasury auction of $14 billion in 10-year TIPS was strong, with a high yield of -0.939% versus a six-auction average of -0.870%, according to BMO Capital Markets.

(Reporting by Herbert Lash in New York, additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York and Karen Pierog in Chicago; Editing by Matthew Lewis, Nick Zieminski and Diane Craft)

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2QP24L
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REUTERS

"U.S. household wealth rose to record $141.7 trillion in Q2, Fed says"


By Jonnelle Marte and Ann Saphir

September 23, 2021

Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. household wealth jumped to a new high of $141.7 trillion at the end of June, a report from the Federal Reserve showed on Thursday, boosted by stock market gains and a pandemic-induced real-estate boom.

Soaring equity markets fueled the increase in overall wealth, adding $3.5 trillion to household assets in the second quarter - a period in which the S&P 500 saw a total return of just over 8.5% after factoring in reinvested dividends.

Rising real estate values added around $1.2 trillion, according to the U.S. central bank's latest quarterly report on household, business and government financial accounts.

Overall U.S. household wealth rose by $5.9 trillion from the first quarter.

The amount held in household savings deposits fell to $10.6 trillion in the second quarter from $10.8 trillion in the first quarter.

Balances in checking accounts rose to $3.6 trillion from $3.3 trillion in the first quarter, the report showed.

The latest snapshot of U.S. household wealth and how it has grown over the coronavirus pandemic shows just how unique the downturn has proven to be.

With the help of unparalleled monetary and fiscal policy responses that fortified personal balance sheets and sent asset prices soaring, household wealth has rocketed by $31 trillion - 28% - since the first quarter of 2020, an unprecedented increase.

Much of the support offered to households, including enhanced unemployment benefits or mortgage forbearance, has either ended or will be expiring in the coming months, just as a resurgence in COVID-19 infections is hurting some vulnerable sectors and slowing job growth.

The report showed that household debt grew at an annualized rate of 7.9% in the second quarter, compared to 6.7% in the first quarter.

Non-financial business borrowing rose at a slower annualized rate of 1.4%, compared to 4.3% in the first quarter.

And government borrowing increased at an annualized rate of 9.6%, up from 9.0% the previous quarter.

Reporting by Jonnelle Marte and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Lisa Shumaker

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 021-09-23/
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REUTERS

""Reasonably good" September jobs starts Fed taper. Is another dud coming?"


By Howard Schneider

September 23, 2021

WASHINGTON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tied the initial wind down of the central bank's bondbuying program to "decent" job growth in September, but high frequency payroll data so far show the pandemic may still be holding back hiring.

Among them, a report this week from payroll management firm UKG showed shift work across a variety of industries, measured during the week when a federal jobs survey is conducted, "was effectively flat month over month" from August to September, said UKG vice president Dave Gilbertson.

"We will likely see one more month go by without the job creation acceleration that economists have been predicting," said Gilbertson, noting that job openings remain strong but "people remain unwilling to jump back into the market, whether that be due to family and childcare obligations, salary and benefit requirements, changing job paths, or the surging Delta variant.”

Powell said Wednesday the Fed intends to begin reducing its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases as soon as November, and, absent a significant change in the direction of the U.S. recovery, certainly by the end of the year.

Yet he did set a condition around the government report, to be released on Oct. 8, that will detail September job creation.

It will be the last official jobs report the Fed will receive before its November meeting, and while Powell said it needn't be "a knock-out, great, super-strong" report, it would need to be "reasonably good."

In normal times that would mean one thing.

Over the decade from 2010 to the start of the pandemic monthly job growth averaged 186,000.

For the pandemic era, with millions of jobs still missing, that probably sets the bar at several hundred thousand.

Average monthly job creation has averaged 487,000 since the Fed said in December it would need to see "substantial further progress" in the labor market before starting to reduce its bond purchases.

It would take around 365,000 new jobs in September for the United States to have regained half the payroll positions "missing" at the point the Fed adopted that language, a benchmark some officials have mentioned as their marker for "substantial" progress.

The Fed may be disappointed.

A recent J.P. Morgan analysis of alternative, higher frequency data projected firms will add 330,000 jobs in September.

Payroll data from Homebase shows a steady decline in employment at a sample of around 50,000 small businesses, many of them restaurants and other service sector firms most likely to feel the impact if consumers shy away from in-person activities again given the new surge of coronavirus cases.

An Oxford Economics recovery tracker fell for the week of Sept. 10, led by 2 a percentage point drop in its measures of employment.

The Fed acknowledged a fresh pandemic hit to the most beleaguered parts of the economy in the policy statement released Wednesday, and Powell amplified the message in his press conference.

"We have...a unique situation where by many measures the labor market is tight," with record job openings, rising wages and other conditions that would let the Fed start to turn away from pandemic support and begin reducing its monthly bond purchases, Powell said.

Policymakers, moreover, anticipated a surge of new jobs in the fall as schools reopened, unemployment benefits expired, and other changes "would come together...so we’d get out of this strange world where there are lots of unemployed people and a high unemployment rate but a labor shortage."

Instead "Delta happened," Powell said, referring to the more virulent strain of the coronavirus, and employers added a disappointing 235,000 jobs in August.

There have been other dud job reports in recent months.

The number of jobs actually declined in December, and at the peak of the spring vaccine rollout the number of jobs created in April was a disappointing 269,000.

But September has now taken on added significance as the Fed looks ahead to its November policy meeting and a possible start to the bond taper.

"If the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations, then I think...we could easily move ahead at the next meeting," Powell said, "or not."

Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 021-09-23/
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REUTERS

"Indexes close up more than 1% as investors assess Fed news"


By Caroline Valetkevitch

SEPTEMBER 23, 2021

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks gained more than 1% on Thursday as investors appeared relieved about the Federal Reserve’s stance on tapering stimulus and raising interest rates.

Upbeat outlooks from Accenture and Salesforce helped to bolster the market, while the U.S. Food and Drug Administration late Wednesday authorized a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for those 65 and older.

Also helping sentiment, concern about a ripple effect from China Evergrande continued to ease.

The Fed said on Wednesday it could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases by as soon as November, and that interest rates could rise quicker than expected by next year.

The November deadline was largely priced in by markets.

In a press conference after the statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the bar for lifting rates from zero is much higher than for tapering.

“This is a follow-on rally from a very good Fed meeting,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York.

“To me that showed there were no surprises and things were as expected,” he said.

“Any Fed rate hike is still quite a ways off and so much can change between now and then.”

Among S&P 500 major industry sectors, energy was up 3.4% and financial stocks were up 2.5%, gaining the most ground.

Real estate and utilities were the only sectors out of 11 showing losses, both off about 0.5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 506.5 points, or 1.48%, to 34,764.82, the S&P 500 gained 53.34 points, or 1.21%, to 4,448.98 and the Nasdaq Composite added 155.40 points, or 1.04%, to 15,052.24.

Shares of IT services provider Salesforce finished up 7% and the company was a big boost to the S&P and the Dow during the session after it raised its annual earnings forecast.

Accenture gained 2.5% after the IT consulting firm boosted its first-quarter outlook.

Concerns eased further over a potential default by Chinese property developer Evergrande even as Reuters reported that some holders of the firm’s dollar bonds had given up hope of getting a coupon payment by a key Thursday deadline.

Investors shrugged off data showing sluggish business activity growth and a rise in jobless claims, in line with expectations for a slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter.

During the session the S&P 500 broke above its 50-day moving average, after trading below the indicator for three full sessions - its biggest such breach since early March.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.91-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 97 new highs and 47 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.84 billion shares, compared with the 10.07 billion average for the last 20 trading days.

Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch in New York; Additional reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Ambar Warrick in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Lisa Shumaker

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-sto ... SKBN2GJ0TF
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CNBC

"Biden says unvaccinated Americans are ‘costing all of us’ as he presses Covid vaccine mandates"


Robert Towey @ROBERTTOWEYCNBC

PUBLISHED FRI, SEP 24 2021

President Joe Biden on Friday blamed unvaccinated Americans for slowing down the U.S. economic recovery, accusing some elected officials of actively trying to undermine the administration’s efforts to combat the Covid-19 pandemic.

Biden’s comments came hours after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention approved distributing Pfizer and BioNTech’s booster shots to roughly 60 million Americans.

“The vast majority of Americans are doing the right thing,” Biden said in addressing the nation, noting that three-fourths of those eligible have have gotten at least one shot.

He criticized the more than 70 million people who haven’t yet started the vaccination process.

“And to make matters worse, there are elected officials actively working to undermine with false information the fight against Covid-19."

"This is totally unacceptable.”


Economists have lower expectations for the back half of the year following a string of disappointing economic reports.

The U.S. economy added just 235,000 jobs in August, well short of expectations for a 720,000 gain from economists polled by Dow Jones.

This week, the Federal Reserve forecast 2021 GDP to rise at a 5.9% annual pace, down from its previous forecast of 7% growth.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky authorized third doses of Pfizer’s vaccine early Friday for anyone 65 and older, long-term care facility residents and individuals ages 18 to 64 who either have underlying medical conditions or work in environments with a high risk for virus spread.

Biden said the CDC’s endorsement enables 60 million Americans to receive booster shots, including teachers, health-care workers and supermarket employees.

Nearly 2.4 million people have already gotten their third shot since Aug. 13 when the CDC cleared them for people with compromised immune systems.

U.S. health officials are still evaluating data on boosters from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson.

“Our doctors and scientists are working day and night analyzing the data from those two organizations on whether and when you need a booster shot, and we’ll provide updates for you as the process moves ahead,” Biden said.

National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins said Thursday that a decision on third doses from Moderna and J&J could arrive within weeks.

He added that the NIH is currently conducting a trial to determine the effects of mixing primary vaccine doses from one manufacturer with boosters made by another.

But even though the CDC reports that 55% of the U.S. population has been fully immunized against Covid, Biden said the remaining unvaccinated individuals were hindering economic growth, costing jobs and putting unnecessary strain on the health-care system.

CNBC’s John Melloy contributed to this article.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/biden-s ... dates.html
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RIGZONE

"Oil Closes On Five Week Win Streak"


by Bloomberg | Jessica Summers

Friday, September 24, 2021

Oil rose for the fifth straight week with the global energy crunch set to boost demand for crude as stockpiles decline from the U.S. to China.

Futures in New York gained 2.8% this week.

The global benchmark Brent settled at the highest in nearly three for the second day in a row.

Global onshore crude supplies sank by almost 21 million barrels last week, led by China, according to data analytics firm Kayrros, while U.S. inventories are near a three-year low.

The surge in natural gas prices is expected to force some consumers to switch to oil, tightening the market further ahead of the northern hemisphere winter.

“The market is pricing in a prolonged impact of supply disruptions, and the likely storage draws that will be needed to fulfill refinery demand,” said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, in a note.

In terms of oil demand, “no new lockdowns in Europe, robust recovery in China road activity, and the U.S. nixing its ban on foreign travelers from November 2021, all lift prospects for upside in the coming quarters.”

Oil has steadily climbed higher this month after a period of Covid-induced demand uncertainty, with some of the world’s largest traders and banks predicting prices may climb further amid the energy crisis.

Global crude consumption could rise by an additional 370,000 barrels a day if natural gas costs stay high, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Various underlying oil market gauges are also pointing to a strengthening market.

The key spread between Brent futures for December and a year later is near $7, the strongest since 2019.

That’s a sign traders are positive on the market outlook.

Money managers increased their bullish ICE Brent bets positions to the most in six months, indicating many believe there’s yet more room for crude prices to climb.

Prices:

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose 68 cents to $73.98 a barrel in New York.

Brent for November settlement climbed 84 cents to $78.09 a barrel, the highest since October 2018.

At the same time, the premium options traders are paying for bearish put options is the smallest since January 2020, another indication that traders are less concerned about a pullback in prices.

Meanwhile, China sold crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserves for the first time via auction in a historic effort to curb raw materials prices, with a unit of PetroChina Co. Ltd. and Hengli Petrochemical Co. Ltd. securing volumes.

(With assistance from Alex Longley and Elizabeth Low.)

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_c ... 4-article/
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