CNBC
"Treasury yields pull back as investors looked beyond hotter-than-anticipated job report"
Alex Harring @ALEX_HARRING Yun Li @YUNLI626 Sophie Kiderlin @SKIDERLIN
PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 2 2022
Treasury yields pulled back from an earlier pop on Friday as investors looked beyond stronger-than-expected labor data.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury pulled back by about 3 basis points to 3.488%.
At its highest level, the yield was 3.638%.
The 2-year Treasury yield gained just over 2 basis points to 4.282%.
Following the new data, it soared as high as 4.41% earlier in the day.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 200,000 on the payrolls number and 3.7% for the jobless rate.
In another blow to the Fed’s anti-inflation efforts, average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the Dow Jones estimate.
Wages were up 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, also well above the 4.6% expectation.
But yields pulled back later in the day in tandem by stocks paring losses as market observers say traders shook off Friday’s data and looked instead to the upcoming Fed meeting.
Investing professionals say the late slide was also driven by traders holding hope on Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday comments that a cooling of interest rates was likely and could come as early as December.
The central bank has been trying to control inflation through interest rate hikes and has raised rates by 75 basis points at each of its last four meetings.
Fed officials have been indicating that the pace of rate hikes could slow down soon, and markets are now expecting the central bank to implement a 50 basis point rate hike at its December meeting.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/us-trea ... eport.html
THE DAILY NEWS
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"Payrolls and wages blow past expectations, flying in the face of Fed rate hikes"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 2 2022
KEY POINTS
* Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.
* The payrolls number was well above the 200,000 estimate, while the unemployment rate was in line.
* Average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the estimate, and 5.1% annually versus the 4.6% expectation.
Job growth was much better than expected in November despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the labor market and tackle inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 200,000 on the payrolls number and 3.7% for the jobless rate.
The monthly gain was a slight decrease from October’s upwardly revised 284,000.
A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged lower to 6.7%.
The numbers likely will do little to slow a Fed that has been raising interest rates steadily this year to bring down inflation still running near its highest level in more than 40 years.
The rate increases have brought the Fed’s benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%.
In another blow to the Fed’s anti-inflation efforts, average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the Dow Jones estimate.
Wages were up 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, also well above the 4.6% expectation.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 350 points after the report on worries the hot jobs data could make the Fed even more aggressive.
However, stocks shaved most of their losses as the trading session neared its close.
Treasury yields initially jumped on the jobs news before turning mixed later.
“To have 263,000 jobs added even after policy rates have been raised by some [375] basis points is no joke,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
“The labor market is hot, hot, hot, heaping pressure on the Fed to continue raising policy rates.”
Leisure and hospitality led the job gains, adding 88,000 positions.
Other sector gainers included health care (45,000), government (42,000) and other services, a category that includes personal and laundry services and which showed a total gain of 24,000.
Social assistance saw a rise of 23,000, which the Labor Department said brings the sector back to where it was in February 2020 before the Covid pandemic.
Construction added 20,000 positions, while information was up 19,000 and manufacturing saw a gain of 14,000.
On the downside, retail establishments reported a loss of 30,000 positions heading into what is expected to be a busy holiday shopping season.
Transportation and warehousing also saw a decline, down 15,000.
The numbers come as the Fed has raised rates half a dozen times this year, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point increases.
Despite the moves, job gains had been running strong this year if a bit lower than the rapid pace of 2021.
On monthly basis, payrolls have been up an average of 392,000 against 562,000 for 2021.
Demand for labor continues to outstrip supply, with about 1.7 positions open for every available worker.
“The Fed is tightening monetary policy but somebody forgot to tell the labor market,” said Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton.
“The good thing about these numbers is that it shows the U.S. economy firmly got back to growth in the second half of the year."
"But job expansion continuing at this speed will do nothing to ease the labor supply-demand imbalance that is worrying the Fed.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week said the job gains are “far in excess of the pace needed to accommodate population growth over time” and said wage pressures are contributing to inflation.
“To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing."
"But for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2 percent inflation,” he said during a speech Wednesday in Washington, D.C.
Markets expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point when it meets later this month.
That’s likely to be followed by a few more increases in 2023 before the central bank can pause to see how its policy moves are impacting the economy, according to current market pricing and statements from several central bank officials.
Friday’s numbers had little impact on rate expectations, with traders assigning a nearly 80% probability that the Fed would step down to a half-point increase, according to CME Group data.
“The economy’s big and it takes a long time, many months, for these things to filter through,” Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, said of the rate increases.
“The impact of these rate hikes hasn’t really been felt yet."
"Powell’s rightfully being a little cautious.”
Powell has stressed the importance of getting labor force participation back to its pre-pandemic level.
However, the November reports showed that participation fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.1%, tied for the lowest level of the year as the labor force fell by 186,000 and is now slightly below the February 2020 level.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/jobs-re ... -2022.html
"Payrolls and wages blow past expectations, flying in the face of Fed rate hikes"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 2 2022
KEY POINTS
* Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.
* The payrolls number was well above the 200,000 estimate, while the unemployment rate was in line.
* Average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the estimate, and 5.1% annually versus the 4.6% expectation.
Job growth was much better than expected in November despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the labor market and tackle inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 200,000 on the payrolls number and 3.7% for the jobless rate.
The monthly gain was a slight decrease from October’s upwardly revised 284,000.
A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged lower to 6.7%.
The numbers likely will do little to slow a Fed that has been raising interest rates steadily this year to bring down inflation still running near its highest level in more than 40 years.
The rate increases have brought the Fed’s benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%.
In another blow to the Fed’s anti-inflation efforts, average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the Dow Jones estimate.
Wages were up 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, also well above the 4.6% expectation.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 350 points after the report on worries the hot jobs data could make the Fed even more aggressive.
However, stocks shaved most of their losses as the trading session neared its close.
Treasury yields initially jumped on the jobs news before turning mixed later.
“To have 263,000 jobs added even after policy rates have been raised by some [375] basis points is no joke,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
“The labor market is hot, hot, hot, heaping pressure on the Fed to continue raising policy rates.”
Leisure and hospitality led the job gains, adding 88,000 positions.
Other sector gainers included health care (45,000), government (42,000) and other services, a category that includes personal and laundry services and which showed a total gain of 24,000.
Social assistance saw a rise of 23,000, which the Labor Department said brings the sector back to where it was in February 2020 before the Covid pandemic.
Construction added 20,000 positions, while information was up 19,000 and manufacturing saw a gain of 14,000.
On the downside, retail establishments reported a loss of 30,000 positions heading into what is expected to be a busy holiday shopping season.
Transportation and warehousing also saw a decline, down 15,000.
The numbers come as the Fed has raised rates half a dozen times this year, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point increases.
Despite the moves, job gains had been running strong this year if a bit lower than the rapid pace of 2021.
On monthly basis, payrolls have been up an average of 392,000 against 562,000 for 2021.
Demand for labor continues to outstrip supply, with about 1.7 positions open for every available worker.
“The Fed is tightening monetary policy but somebody forgot to tell the labor market,” said Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton.
“The good thing about these numbers is that it shows the U.S. economy firmly got back to growth in the second half of the year."
"But job expansion continuing at this speed will do nothing to ease the labor supply-demand imbalance that is worrying the Fed.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week said the job gains are “far in excess of the pace needed to accommodate population growth over time” and said wage pressures are contributing to inflation.
“To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing."
"But for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2 percent inflation,” he said during a speech Wednesday in Washington, D.C.
Markets expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point when it meets later this month.
That’s likely to be followed by a few more increases in 2023 before the central bank can pause to see how its policy moves are impacting the economy, according to current market pricing and statements from several central bank officials.
Friday’s numbers had little impact on rate expectations, with traders assigning a nearly 80% probability that the Fed would step down to a half-point increase, according to CME Group data.
“The economy’s big and it takes a long time, many months, for these things to filter through,” Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, said of the rate increases.
“The impact of these rate hikes hasn’t really been felt yet."
"Powell’s rightfully being a little cautious.”
Powell has stressed the importance of getting labor force participation back to its pre-pandemic level.
However, the November reports showed that participation fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.1%, tied for the lowest level of the year as the labor force fell by 186,000 and is now slightly below the February 2020 level.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/jobs-re ... -2022.html
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"TREASURIES-U.S. yields little changed as jobs report raises inflation concerns"
By Herbert Lash
DECEMBER 2, 2022
NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Treasury yields pared sharp gains on Friday after a strong U.S. jobs report for November showed a resilient labor market with rising wages, a potential thorn for the Federal Reserve as it moves to slow its hiking of interest rates to tame high inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month as employees hired more workers than expected and data for the prior month was revised higher, the Labor Department said.
Another sign of a strong labor market was a 0.6% increase in average hourly earnings after a 0.5% advance in October.
It was the biggest monthly rise in 10 months and nudged the annual rate to 5.1% from 4.9% in October.
Wages peaked at 5.6% in March.
An initial jump in yields softened later in the session on investors adding longer-dated securities to their holdings on falling bond prices and the short-covering of positions, said Priya Misra, head of global rates at TD Securities in New York.
"The demand came in the 10-year, which to me is 'I am worried about a recession.'"
"'It's going to happen next year, I should get out of my short' or 'I'm uninvested and we got a rise in rates, so I might as well take advantage of it'," she said.
The acceleration in average hourly earnings and a third-straight drop in labor force participation will likely trouble Fed policymakers, said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities in New York.
"Their intention from what Powell has said and from what the latest data show is that they will keep rates up at these levels until it's clear inflation is trending lower," he said, referring to the U.S. central bank chairman, Jerome Powell.
The report is "precisely what Chair Powell told us earlier this week he was most worried about."
"Wages are rising more than productivity, as labor supply continues to shrink," he said.
Brendan Murphy, head of global fixed income for North America at Insight Investment, said "the fact that earnings have spiked up again should give you a little bit of concern that inflation could be stickier than people expect."
"It's highly worrisome that it bumped up a bit," he said.
Futures showed the market expects the terminal rate to rise to 4.913% in May, up about 7 basis points from the day before.
The chance of a fifth-straight 75 bps hike when Fed policy-makers meet Dec. 13-14 rose to 23%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
A 50 bps hike is still the greatest likelihood.
The terminal rate has changed the past few days on hopes the Fed can deliver a soft landing, said John Luke Tyner, fixed income analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors.
"It's time again to upgrade expectations of the terminal rate back higher, again."
"This report keeps pressure on the Fed to keep hiking and stay tight for longer," Tyner said in a note.
The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 0.5 basis points at 4.259%, while the yield on 10-year yield fell 3.5 basis points to 3.492%.
Earlier the 10-year yield briefly traded below 3.5% before the data's release, then shot to 3.638% before slipping.
The yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year notes, seen as a recession harbinger, was at -76.9 basis points.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 8.3 basis points to 3.550%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.571%.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.455%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4% a year for the next decade.
The U.S. dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap, seen by some as a better gauge of inflation expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed's quantitative easing, was last at 2.558%.
(Reporting by Herbert Lash; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N32S1YU
"TREASURIES-U.S. yields little changed as jobs report raises inflation concerns"
By Herbert Lash
DECEMBER 2, 2022
NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Treasury yields pared sharp gains on Friday after a strong U.S. jobs report for November showed a resilient labor market with rising wages, a potential thorn for the Federal Reserve as it moves to slow its hiking of interest rates to tame high inflation.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month as employees hired more workers than expected and data for the prior month was revised higher, the Labor Department said.
Another sign of a strong labor market was a 0.6% increase in average hourly earnings after a 0.5% advance in October.
It was the biggest monthly rise in 10 months and nudged the annual rate to 5.1% from 4.9% in October.
Wages peaked at 5.6% in March.
An initial jump in yields softened later in the session on investors adding longer-dated securities to their holdings on falling bond prices and the short-covering of positions, said Priya Misra, head of global rates at TD Securities in New York.
"The demand came in the 10-year, which to me is 'I am worried about a recession.'"
"'It's going to happen next year, I should get out of my short' or 'I'm uninvested and we got a rise in rates, so I might as well take advantage of it'," she said.
The acceleration in average hourly earnings and a third-straight drop in labor force participation will likely trouble Fed policymakers, said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities in New York.
"Their intention from what Powell has said and from what the latest data show is that they will keep rates up at these levels until it's clear inflation is trending lower," he said, referring to the U.S. central bank chairman, Jerome Powell.
The report is "precisely what Chair Powell told us earlier this week he was most worried about."
"Wages are rising more than productivity, as labor supply continues to shrink," he said.
Brendan Murphy, head of global fixed income for North America at Insight Investment, said "the fact that earnings have spiked up again should give you a little bit of concern that inflation could be stickier than people expect."
"It's highly worrisome that it bumped up a bit," he said.
Futures showed the market expects the terminal rate to rise to 4.913% in May, up about 7 basis points from the day before.
The chance of a fifth-straight 75 bps hike when Fed policy-makers meet Dec. 13-14 rose to 23%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
A 50 bps hike is still the greatest likelihood.
The terminal rate has changed the past few days on hopes the Fed can deliver a soft landing, said John Luke Tyner, fixed income analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors.
"It's time again to upgrade expectations of the terminal rate back higher, again."
"This report keeps pressure on the Fed to keep hiking and stay tight for longer," Tyner said in a note.
The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 0.5 basis points at 4.259%, while the yield on 10-year yield fell 3.5 basis points to 3.492%.
Earlier the 10-year yield briefly traded below 3.5% before the data's release, then shot to 3.638% before slipping.
The yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year notes, seen as a recession harbinger, was at -76.9 basis points.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 8.3 basis points to 3.550%.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.571%.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.455%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4% a year for the next decade.
The U.S. dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap, seen by some as a better gauge of inflation expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed's quantitative easing, was last at 2.558%.
(Reporting by Herbert Lash; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N32S1YU
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"EU agrees $60 Russian oil price cap, holdout Poland backs deal"
By Jan Strupczewski and Kate Abnett
December 2, 2022
Summary
* Poland backs price cap after seeking extra conditions
* EU countries to formally approve the deal this weekend
* G7's price cap aims to cut Russia's oil income
BRUSSELS, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The European Union on Friday agreed on a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil, after holdout Poland gave its support, paving the way for formal approval over the weekend.
Warsaw had resisted the proposed level as it examined an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap below the market price.
It had pushed in EU negotiations for the cap to be as low as possible to squeeze revenues to Russia and limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
Polish Ambassador to the EU Andrzej Sados on Friday told reporters Poland had backed the EU deal, which included a mechanism to keep the oil price cap at least 5% below the market rate.
U.S. officials said the deal was unprecedented and demonstrated the resolve of the coalition opposing Russia's war.
The price cap, an idea of the Group of Seven (G7) nations, aims to reduce Russia's income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on Dec. 5.
A spokesperson for the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency and oversees EU countries' negotiations, said it had launched the written procedure for all 27 EU countries to formally greenlight the deal, following Poland's approval.
Details of the deal are due to be published in the EU legal journal on Sunday.
EU SEES SIGNIFICANT HIT TO RUSSIAN REVENUES
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the price cap would significantly reduce Russia's revenues.
"It will help us stabilise global energy prices, benefiting emerging economies around the world," von der Leyen said on Twitter, adding that the cap would be "adjustable over time" to react to market developments.
The G7 price cap will allow non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than the price cap.
Because the most important shipping and insurance firms are based in G7 countries, the price cap would make it very difficult for Moscow to sell its oil for a higher price.
The White House on Friday welcomed progress on the cap.
"A price cap will help limit Mr. Putin's ability to profiteer off the oil market so that he can continue to fund a war machine that continues to kill innocent Ukrainians," national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.
The U.S. Treasury said it would review the final details once the agreement was finalized.
"This unprecedented action demonstrates the unity of the United States and our allies and partners and we look forward to working with the coalition to quickly finish implementation of the price cap,” Treasury spokesman Michael Gwin said.
The chair of the Russian lower house's foreign affairs committee told Tass news agency on Friday the European Union was jeopardising its own energy security.
The initial G7 proposal last week was for a price cap of $65-$70 per barrel with no adjustment mechanism.
Since Russian Urals crude already traded lower, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia pushed for a lower price.
Russian Urals crude traded at around $67 a barrel on Friday.
EU countries have wrangled for days over the details, with those countries adding conditions to the deal - including that the price cap will be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, according to diplomats and an EU document seen by Reuters on Thursday.
The document also said a 45-day transitional period would apply to vessels carrying Russian crude that was loaded before Dec. 5 and unloaded at its final destination by Jan. 19, 2023.
Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, Kate Abnett; additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; editing by Geert De Clercq, Philippa Fletcher, Barbara Lewis and Alistair Bell
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-12-02/
"EU agrees $60 Russian oil price cap, holdout Poland backs deal"
By Jan Strupczewski and Kate Abnett
December 2, 2022
Summary
* Poland backs price cap after seeking extra conditions
* EU countries to formally approve the deal this weekend
* G7's price cap aims to cut Russia's oil income
BRUSSELS, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The European Union on Friday agreed on a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil, after holdout Poland gave its support, paving the way for formal approval over the weekend.
Warsaw had resisted the proposed level as it examined an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap below the market price.
It had pushed in EU negotiations for the cap to be as low as possible to squeeze revenues to Russia and limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
Polish Ambassador to the EU Andrzej Sados on Friday told reporters Poland had backed the EU deal, which included a mechanism to keep the oil price cap at least 5% below the market rate.
U.S. officials said the deal was unprecedented and demonstrated the resolve of the coalition opposing Russia's war.
The price cap, an idea of the Group of Seven (G7) nations, aims to reduce Russia's income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on Dec. 5.
A spokesperson for the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency and oversees EU countries' negotiations, said it had launched the written procedure for all 27 EU countries to formally greenlight the deal, following Poland's approval.
Details of the deal are due to be published in the EU legal journal on Sunday.
EU SEES SIGNIFICANT HIT TO RUSSIAN REVENUES
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the price cap would significantly reduce Russia's revenues.
"It will help us stabilise global energy prices, benefiting emerging economies around the world," von der Leyen said on Twitter, adding that the cap would be "adjustable over time" to react to market developments.
The G7 price cap will allow non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than the price cap.
Because the most important shipping and insurance firms are based in G7 countries, the price cap would make it very difficult for Moscow to sell its oil for a higher price.
The White House on Friday welcomed progress on the cap.
"A price cap will help limit Mr. Putin's ability to profiteer off the oil market so that he can continue to fund a war machine that continues to kill innocent Ukrainians," national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.
The U.S. Treasury said it would review the final details once the agreement was finalized.
"This unprecedented action demonstrates the unity of the United States and our allies and partners and we look forward to working with the coalition to quickly finish implementation of the price cap,” Treasury spokesman Michael Gwin said.
The chair of the Russian lower house's foreign affairs committee told Tass news agency on Friday the European Union was jeopardising its own energy security.
The initial G7 proposal last week was for a price cap of $65-$70 per barrel with no adjustment mechanism.
Since Russian Urals crude already traded lower, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia pushed for a lower price.
Russian Urals crude traded at around $67 a barrel on Friday.
EU countries have wrangled for days over the details, with those countries adding conditions to the deal - including that the price cap will be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, according to diplomats and an EU document seen by Reuters on Thursday.
The document also said a 45-day transitional period would apply to vessels carrying Russian crude that was loaded before Dec. 5 and unloaded at its final destination by Jan. 19, 2023.
Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, Kate Abnett; additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; editing by Geert De Clercq, Philippa Fletcher, Barbara Lewis and Alistair Bell
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-12-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"U.S. to expand solar panel tariffs after probe finds Chinese evasion"
By Nichola Groom
December 2, 2022
Dec 2 (Reuters) - The United States will impose new duties on imports from some major Chinese solar panel makers after a months-long investigation found they were trying to dodge tariffs by finishing their products in Southeast Asian countries, trade officials said on Friday.
The preliminary decision was bad news for U.S. solar project developers that rely on cheap imports to fuel their growth, but fell short of the industry's worst fears that Washington would impose new tariffs to cover all solar shipments from the region, instead of just those from specific companies.
U.S. President Joe Biden has set a goal to decarbonize the nation's power sector - the source of around a quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions - by 2035, something that will require rapid deployment of new solar, wind and other clean energy projects.
The U.S. Commerce Department probe found that units of BYD Co Ltd, Trina Solar Co Ltd, Longi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd and Canadian Solar Inc were circumventing existing tariffs on Chinese solar cells and panels that have been in place for a decade.
If finalized next year, the determination means those companies will be subject to duties on the products they make in Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam - countries that now account for about 80% of U.S. panel supplies.
Those companies and others will face the same duty rates the United States already assesses on their Chinese-made products, officials said, noting that most of those rates are below 35%.
The duties will not kick in until June of 2024 thanks to a two- year waiver from Biden earlier this year.
The announcement was welcomed by Auxin Solar, a small U.S. solar panel maker that requested the Commerce investigation in February.
The tiny U.S. solar manufacturing industry has often sought trade protections to stem the flow of cheap Asian goods that they argue make their products uncompetitive.
"Commerce's investigations have largely validated and confirmed Auxin's allegations of Chinese cheating," Auxin Chief Executive Mamun Rashid said in a statement.
Producers including New East Solar, Hanwha Q CELLS, Jinko Solar and Boviet Solar were found not to be dodging the tariffs, Commerce said.
Other companies will have the ability to pursue a certification process to show that they are not circumventing tariffs.
A final decision from Commerce is expected in May.
Buyers of solar panels for both large utility projects and residential rooftops say new tariffs would worsen what is already a difficult market for accessing solar energy equipment.
"The only good news here is that Commerce didn't target all imports from the subject countries," Abigail Ross Hopper, president of solar trade group the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), said in an emailed statement.
"This is a mistake we will have to deal with for the next several years," she added.
The industry has faced project delays for the last two years due to pandemic-related supply disruptions, land disputes, and a ban on goods made in China's Xinjiang region over forced labor concerns.
Some 1,000 shipments of solar products have been seized at the U.S. border due to suspicion they could have come from slave labor camps, Reuters previously reported.
The mere threat of new tariffs on solar imports also contributed to a slowdown in project development this year, the industry has said.
In response to those delays, Biden earlier this year said any new tariffs would be waived for two years.
Republican Senator Marco Rubio said the Commerce Department's new tariffs should take effect immediately.
"President Biden should be focused on revitalizing American industry, not continuing our dependence on slave-made goods in the name of arbitrary climate goals.”
The White House has said the waiver is meant to allow U.S. solar panel manufacturing time to ramp up.
Additional reporting by David Shepardson in Washington; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Marguerita Choy
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-12-02/
"U.S. to expand solar panel tariffs after probe finds Chinese evasion"
By Nichola Groom
December 2, 2022
Dec 2 (Reuters) - The United States will impose new duties on imports from some major Chinese solar panel makers after a months-long investigation found they were trying to dodge tariffs by finishing their products in Southeast Asian countries, trade officials said on Friday.
The preliminary decision was bad news for U.S. solar project developers that rely on cheap imports to fuel their growth, but fell short of the industry's worst fears that Washington would impose new tariffs to cover all solar shipments from the region, instead of just those from specific companies.
U.S. President Joe Biden has set a goal to decarbonize the nation's power sector - the source of around a quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions - by 2035, something that will require rapid deployment of new solar, wind and other clean energy projects.
The U.S. Commerce Department probe found that units of BYD Co Ltd, Trina Solar Co Ltd, Longi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd and Canadian Solar Inc were circumventing existing tariffs on Chinese solar cells and panels that have been in place for a decade.
If finalized next year, the determination means those companies will be subject to duties on the products they make in Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam - countries that now account for about 80% of U.S. panel supplies.
Those companies and others will face the same duty rates the United States already assesses on their Chinese-made products, officials said, noting that most of those rates are below 35%.
The duties will not kick in until June of 2024 thanks to a two- year waiver from Biden earlier this year.
The announcement was welcomed by Auxin Solar, a small U.S. solar panel maker that requested the Commerce investigation in February.
The tiny U.S. solar manufacturing industry has often sought trade protections to stem the flow of cheap Asian goods that they argue make their products uncompetitive.
"Commerce's investigations have largely validated and confirmed Auxin's allegations of Chinese cheating," Auxin Chief Executive Mamun Rashid said in a statement.
Producers including New East Solar, Hanwha Q CELLS, Jinko Solar and Boviet Solar were found not to be dodging the tariffs, Commerce said.
Other companies will have the ability to pursue a certification process to show that they are not circumventing tariffs.
A final decision from Commerce is expected in May.
Buyers of solar panels for both large utility projects and residential rooftops say new tariffs would worsen what is already a difficult market for accessing solar energy equipment.
"The only good news here is that Commerce didn't target all imports from the subject countries," Abigail Ross Hopper, president of solar trade group the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), said in an emailed statement.
"This is a mistake we will have to deal with for the next several years," she added.
The industry has faced project delays for the last two years due to pandemic-related supply disruptions, land disputes, and a ban on goods made in China's Xinjiang region over forced labor concerns.
Some 1,000 shipments of solar products have been seized at the U.S. border due to suspicion they could have come from slave labor camps, Reuters previously reported.
The mere threat of new tariffs on solar imports also contributed to a slowdown in project development this year, the industry has said.
In response to those delays, Biden earlier this year said any new tariffs would be waived for two years.
Republican Senator Marco Rubio said the Commerce Department's new tariffs should take effect immediately.
"President Biden should be focused on revitalizing American industry, not continuing our dependence on slave-made goods in the name of arbitrary climate goals.”
The White House has said the waiver is meant to allow U.S. solar panel manufacturing time to ramp up.
Additional reporting by David Shepardson in Washington; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Marguerita Choy
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-12-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"S&P 500 ends slightly lower after jobs report"
By Chuck Mikolajczak
December 2, 2022
Summary
* Job growth beats expectations
* Unemployment rate steady at 3.7%
* Ford falls on lower November vehicle sales
* Dow up 0.1%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, Nasdaq down 0.18%
NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday, although major indexes rallied off their worst levels of the day, as the November payrolls report fueled expectations the Federal Reserve would maintain its path of interest rate hikes to combat inflation.
The Labor Department's jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000, above expectations of 200,000 and wage growth accelerated even as recession concerns increase.
The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged, as expected, at 3.7%.
"Wage growth has been in an uptrend since August," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investment in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
"We will have to see that trend reverse for the Fed to be comfortable with a pause."
"Until then, they’ll continue to taper towards a pause."
Investors have been looking for signs of weakness in the labor market, especially wages, as a precursor to faster cooling of inflation that will enable the Fed to slow and eventually stop its current rate hike cycle.
Stocks had rallied earlier in the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on scaling back interest rates hikes as early as December.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34.87 points, or 0.1%, to 34,429.88, the S&P 500 lost 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50.
Still, equities ended the session off their lowest levels of the day that saw each of the major indexes tumble at least 1%, with the Dow managing a slight gain.
"If anything, I am actually encouraged by how the market is clawing its way back from the level we were at today."
"It is another indication the market is looking for at least a seasonal December rally," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA in New York.
"The market is beginning to look across the valley and say, 'OK, a year from now the Fed will likely be on hold and considering cutting rates.'"
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 13-14, the final meeting in a volatile year that saw the central bank attempt to stifle the fastest rate of inflation since the 1980s with record interest rates increases.
The major averages notched a second straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.13%, the Dow gaining 0.24% and the Nasdaq rising 2.1%.
Growth and technology companies such as Apple Inc, down 0.34%, and Amazon, off 1.43%, were pressured by concerns over rising rates but pared declines as U.S. Treasury yields eased throughout the day off earlier highs.
The S&P 500 growth index declined 0.29% while technology shares were among the worst performing among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors with a fall of 0.55%.
Ford Motor Co declined 1.56% on lower vehicle sales in November, while DoorDash Inc 3.38% shed after RBC downgraded the food delivery firm's stock.
Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.35-to-1 ratio favored advancers.
The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 92 new lows.
Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Cynthia Osterman
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futu ... 022-12-02/
"S&P 500 ends slightly lower after jobs report"
By Chuck Mikolajczak
December 2, 2022
Summary
* Job growth beats expectations
* Unemployment rate steady at 3.7%
* Ford falls on lower November vehicle sales
* Dow up 0.1%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, Nasdaq down 0.18%
NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday, although major indexes rallied off their worst levels of the day, as the November payrolls report fueled expectations the Federal Reserve would maintain its path of interest rate hikes to combat inflation.
The Labor Department's jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000, above expectations of 200,000 and wage growth accelerated even as recession concerns increase.
The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged, as expected, at 3.7%.
"Wage growth has been in an uptrend since August," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investment in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
"We will have to see that trend reverse for the Fed to be comfortable with a pause."
"Until then, they’ll continue to taper towards a pause."
Investors have been looking for signs of weakness in the labor market, especially wages, as a precursor to faster cooling of inflation that will enable the Fed to slow and eventually stop its current rate hike cycle.
Stocks had rallied earlier in the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on scaling back interest rates hikes as early as December.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34.87 points, or 0.1%, to 34,429.88, the S&P 500 lost 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.7 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50.
Still, equities ended the session off their lowest levels of the day that saw each of the major indexes tumble at least 1%, with the Dow managing a slight gain.
"If anything, I am actually encouraged by how the market is clawing its way back from the level we were at today."
"It is another indication the market is looking for at least a seasonal December rally," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA in New York.
"The market is beginning to look across the valley and say, 'OK, a year from now the Fed will likely be on hold and considering cutting rates.'"
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 13-14, the final meeting in a volatile year that saw the central bank attempt to stifle the fastest rate of inflation since the 1980s with record interest rates increases.
The major averages notched a second straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.13%, the Dow gaining 0.24% and the Nasdaq rising 2.1%.
Growth and technology companies such as Apple Inc, down 0.34%, and Amazon, off 1.43%, were pressured by concerns over rising rates but pared declines as U.S. Treasury yields eased throughout the day off earlier highs.
The S&P 500 growth index declined 0.29% while technology shares were among the worst performing among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors with a fall of 0.55%.
Ford Motor Co declined 1.56% on lower vehicle sales in November, while DoorDash Inc 3.38% shed after RBC downgraded the food delivery firm's stock.
Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.35-to-1 ratio favored advancers.
The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 92 new lows.
Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Cynthia Osterman
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futu ... 022-12-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"U.S. labor market shrugs off recession fears; keeps Fed on tightening path"
By Lucia Mutikani
December 2, 2022
Summary
* Nonfarm payrolls increase 263,000 in November
* Unemployment rate steady at 3.7%; participation rate falls
* Average hourly earnings rise 0.6%; up 5.1% year-on-year
WASHINGTON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in November and increased wages, shrugging off mounting worries of a recession, but that will probably not stop the Federal Reserve from slowing the pace of its interest rate hikes starting this month.
Despite the strong job growth, some details of the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday were a bit weak, which economists said could be flagging upcoming labor market weakness.
Household employment decreased for a second straight month.
About 186,000 people left the labor force, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%.
Labor market tightness and strength keeps the Fed on its monetary policy tightening path at least through the first half of 2023, and could raise its policy rate to a higher level where it could stay for sometime.
It also underscores the economy's resilience heading into was is expected to be a tough year.
"November's labor market report was clearly bad news for the Fed's war on inflation," said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York.
"The Fed has no other choice than to remain in tightening mode for the near future, with 50 basis points hikes in December and February."
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month.
Data for October was revised higher to show payrolls rising 284,000 instead of 261,000 as previously reported.
Monthly job growth of 100,000 is needed to keep pace with growth in the labor force.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing 200,000.
Estimates ranged from 133,000 to 270,000.
Employment growth has averaged 392,000 per month this year compared with 562,000 in 2021.
Hiring remains strong despite announcements of thousands of job cuts by technology companies, including Twitter, Amazon and Meta, the parent of Facebook.
Economists say these companies are right-sizing after over-hiring during the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that small firms remain desperate for workers.
There were 10.3 million job openings at the end of October, with 1.7 openings for every unemployed person, many of them in the leisure and hospitality as well as healthcare and social assistance industries.
The gains in employment last month were led by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 88,000 jobs, most of them at restaurants and bars.
Leisure and hospitality employment remains down 980,000 from its pre-pandemic level.
There were 45,000 jobs added in healthcare, while government payrolls increased 42,000.
Construction employment increased by 20,000 jobs despite the housing market turmoil, while manufacturing added 14,000 jobs.
But retail trade employment fell by 30,000 jobs, with most of the losses in general merchandise stores.
Transportation and warehousing payrolls decreased by 15,000 jobs.
Temporary help jobs, a segment normally considered a harbinger of future hiring, decreased by 17,200.
"The labor market might encounter some bumps in the road next year, but it's heading into 2023 cruising," said Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate hikes "as soon as December."
The Fed has raised its policy rate by 375 basis points this year from near zero to a 3.75%-4.00% range in the fastest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s.
Policymakers meet on Dec. 13 and 14.
Attention now shifts to November's consumer price data due on Dec. 13.
Stocks on Wall Street fell.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices were lower.
WAGES ACCELERATE
With the labor market still tight, average hourly earnings increased 0.6% after advancing 0.5% in October.
That raised the annual increase in wages to 5.1% from 4.9% in October.
Wage growth peaked at 5.6% in March.
The broad wage gains suggest that the moderation in inflation, evident in October data, will be gradual.
Economists said this also raised concerns about a wage-price spiral that could keep service prices rising outside the shelter component.
Fed officials have shied away from calling a price-wage spiral.
"The broad-based nature of the increase and its consistency with other data on wages makes us think that around 5% average hourly earnings growth is not an aberration," said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup in New York.
Strong wage gains are helping to drive consumer spending, which surged in October, leading economists to believe that an anticipated recession next year would be short and shallow.
But there are some signs of weakness emerging in the labor market.
Household employment decreased by 138,000 jobs, the second straight monthly decline.
Though household employment tends to be volatile as it is drawn from a smaller sample compared to nonfarm payrolls, economists said the divergence between these two measures was important to watch.
"The household survey may be better in capturing turning points in the labor market than the payroll survey, since the payroll survey is unable to adequately capture activity in opening and closing firms while the household survey can," said Sophia Koropeckyj, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Others, however, argued nonfarm payrolls were a better gauge and expected household employment to converge with payrolls.
The participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, slipped to 62.1% from 62.2% in October.
Some of the decrease in household employment and participation was likely because of illness, with 1.6 million people saying they were absent from work because they were sick, up 265,000 from October.
The participation rate for Americans 55 years and older fell, possibly reflecting retirements.
The employment-to-population ratio dipped to 59.9% from 60.0% in October.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-j ... 022-12-02/
"U.S. labor market shrugs off recession fears; keeps Fed on tightening path"
By Lucia Mutikani
December 2, 2022
Summary
* Nonfarm payrolls increase 263,000 in November
* Unemployment rate steady at 3.7%; participation rate falls
* Average hourly earnings rise 0.6%; up 5.1% year-on-year
WASHINGTON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in November and increased wages, shrugging off mounting worries of a recession, but that will probably not stop the Federal Reserve from slowing the pace of its interest rate hikes starting this month.
Despite the strong job growth, some details of the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday were a bit weak, which economists said could be flagging upcoming labor market weakness.
Household employment decreased for a second straight month.
About 186,000 people left the labor force, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%.
Labor market tightness and strength keeps the Fed on its monetary policy tightening path at least through the first half of 2023, and could raise its policy rate to a higher level where it could stay for sometime.
It also underscores the economy's resilience heading into was is expected to be a tough year.
"November's labor market report was clearly bad news for the Fed's war on inflation," said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York.
"The Fed has no other choice than to remain in tightening mode for the near future, with 50 basis points hikes in December and February."
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month.
Data for October was revised higher to show payrolls rising 284,000 instead of 261,000 as previously reported.
Monthly job growth of 100,000 is needed to keep pace with growth in the labor force.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing 200,000.
Estimates ranged from 133,000 to 270,000.
Employment growth has averaged 392,000 per month this year compared with 562,000 in 2021.
Hiring remains strong despite announcements of thousands of job cuts by technology companies, including Twitter, Amazon and Meta, the parent of Facebook.
Economists say these companies are right-sizing after over-hiring during the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that small firms remain desperate for workers.
There were 10.3 million job openings at the end of October, with 1.7 openings for every unemployed person, many of them in the leisure and hospitality as well as healthcare and social assistance industries.
The gains in employment last month were led by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 88,000 jobs, most of them at restaurants and bars.
Leisure and hospitality employment remains down 980,000 from its pre-pandemic level.
There were 45,000 jobs added in healthcare, while government payrolls increased 42,000.
Construction employment increased by 20,000 jobs despite the housing market turmoil, while manufacturing added 14,000 jobs.
But retail trade employment fell by 30,000 jobs, with most of the losses in general merchandise stores.
Transportation and warehousing payrolls decreased by 15,000 jobs.
Temporary help jobs, a segment normally considered a harbinger of future hiring, decreased by 17,200.
"The labor market might encounter some bumps in the road next year, but it's heading into 2023 cruising," said Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate hikes "as soon as December."
The Fed has raised its policy rate by 375 basis points this year from near zero to a 3.75%-4.00% range in the fastest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s.
Policymakers meet on Dec. 13 and 14.
Attention now shifts to November's consumer price data due on Dec. 13.
Stocks on Wall Street fell.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices were lower.
WAGES ACCELERATE
With the labor market still tight, average hourly earnings increased 0.6% after advancing 0.5% in October.
That raised the annual increase in wages to 5.1% from 4.9% in October.
Wage growth peaked at 5.6% in March.
The broad wage gains suggest that the moderation in inflation, evident in October data, will be gradual.
Economists said this also raised concerns about a wage-price spiral that could keep service prices rising outside the shelter component.
Fed officials have shied away from calling a price-wage spiral.
"The broad-based nature of the increase and its consistency with other data on wages makes us think that around 5% average hourly earnings growth is not an aberration," said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup in New York.
Strong wage gains are helping to drive consumer spending, which surged in October, leading economists to believe that an anticipated recession next year would be short and shallow.
But there are some signs of weakness emerging in the labor market.
Household employment decreased by 138,000 jobs, the second straight monthly decline.
Though household employment tends to be volatile as it is drawn from a smaller sample compared to nonfarm payrolls, economists said the divergence between these two measures was important to watch.
"The household survey may be better in capturing turning points in the labor market than the payroll survey, since the payroll survey is unable to adequately capture activity in opening and closing firms while the household survey can," said Sophia Koropeckyj, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Others, however, argued nonfarm payrolls were a better gauge and expected household employment to converge with payrolls.
The participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, slipped to 62.1% from 62.2% in October.
Some of the decrease in household employment and participation was likely because of illness, with 1.6 million people saying they were absent from work because they were sick, up 265,000 from October.
The participation rate for Americans 55 years and older fell, possibly reflecting retirements.
The employment-to-population ratio dipped to 59.9% from 60.0% in October.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-j ... 022-12-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Fed's Evans sees slower rate hike pace, 'slightly higher' peak rate"
By Bianca Flowers
December 2, 2022
Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise borrowing costs to a "slightly higher" peak than envisioned in forecasts from September, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Friday.
"We probably are going to have to have a slightly higher peak rate of the funds rate, even as we likely will step down" the pace of rate hikes from the 75-basis-point-per-meeting pace of recent meetings, Evans said at an event in Chicago.
Writing by Ann Saphir
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-b ... 022-12-02/
"Fed's Evans sees slower rate hike pace, 'slightly higher' peak rate"
By Bianca Flowers
December 2, 2022
Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise borrowing costs to a "slightly higher" peak than envisioned in forecasts from September, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Friday.
"We probably are going to have to have a slightly higher peak rate of the funds rate, even as we likely will step down" the pace of rate hikes from the 75-basis-point-per-meeting pace of recent meetings, Evans said at an event in Chicago.
Writing by Ann Saphir
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-b ... 022-12-02/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
THE NEW YORK TIMES
"U.S. Sees Little Prospect for Ukraine Talks With Putin After Biden Offer"
Story by Michael Crowley and Michael D. Shear
2 DECEMBER 2022
WASHINGTON — A day after President Biden said he would be willing to talk with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia about a possible peace agreement in Ukraine, the Kremlin offered a frosty response, and prospects for settling the brutal conflict remained as distant as ever.
Mr. Biden said on Thursday that he would hold his first conversation with Mr. Putin since before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 if the Russian leader was “looking for a way to end the war.”
But U.S. officials said that Russia, as they have previously assessed, was not prepared to negotiate in good faith, and Russian officials repeated hard-line demands that are unacceptable to Kyiv.
Although Mr. Biden’s remark was taken by some as a new emphasis on moving toward peace talks with Russia, John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters that Mr. Biden’s position had not changed.
“The president has been very consistent about that,” Mr. Kirby said.
“He’s got no intentions to talk to Mr. Putin right now."
"As he also said, Putin has shown absolutely no inclination to be interested in dialogue of any kind."
"In fact, quite the contrary."
"Everything he’s doing shows that Mr. Putin is interested in continuing this illegal, unprovoked war.”
In Moscow, Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said at a news conference on Friday that Mr. Putin remained “open to contacts and negotiations” and that diplomacy was the “preferable way” to achieve Russia’s goals.
But Mr. Peskov noted that the United States “still does not recognize new territories as part of Russia,” an apparent reference to eastern Ukrainian regions that Mr. Putin claimed to annex after sham referendums in September, saying that “this makes more complicated the search for common ground for mutual discussions.”
In fact, the Russian position essentially rules out serious negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who said in a mid-November interview with Bloomberg News that the war could not end until Ukraine had reclaimed all its territory from Russia, including the purportedly annexed regions as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.
“The Russians have made it very clear that, of course, they are not in the mood for constructive dialogue and for constructive diplomacy,” the State Department spokesman, Ned Price, said at a press briefing.
Any conversation between Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin “is nothing more than a hypothetical at this time,” he added.
“We have been very clear that the United States and countries around the world will never — never, never, never — recognize territory that Russia has illegally annexed, either in 2014 or more recently, as part of its illegal and now brutal aggression against Ukraine,” Mr. Price added.
Mr. Biden’s comment — made during a news conference with the visiting President Emmanuel Macron of France, who has spoken to Mr. Putin several times over the past year, including in late August — follows some signs that senior U.S. officials have contemplated whether Ukraine’s recent successful offensives present a window for negotiations.
Last month, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark A. Milley, told reporters that Ukraine’s position of “strength” creates “a possibility” for a political solution.
But Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who served as NATO secretary general from 2009 to 2014, said this week during a visit to Washington that he had spoken with Biden administration officials and saw no sign that they were pressuring Ukraine’s government to begin negotiating with Russia.
“It was an idea that was just floated, but it has been immediately shut down,” Mr. Rasmussen said.
“It would really weaken the Western front if we tried to push Zelensky into premature peace negotiations, because that would be a trap.”
“Putin is not sincere when it comes to peace negotiations,” Mr. Rasmussen added.
Ukrainian officials have said the same, warning that Russia could try to pause the fighting for talks — but only to use that time to prepare for new military offensives.
Mr. Macron reaffirmed France’s support for Ukraine and nodded to the reality that a Ukrainian population enraged by Russia’s occupation is in no mood to compromise.
France “will never urge Ukrainians to make a compromise that will not be acceptable for them,” he said.
On Friday, Italy’s foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, said that Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure targets like power grids were “making any kind of dialogue impossible.”
“We all want peace, but it must come through Kyiv’s independence, not through its surrender,” Mr. Tajani said.
“The responsibility for this situation is only Russian."
"Now the Kremlin must give concrete signals instead of bombing the population.”
White House officials said they were not surprised by Russia’s reaction to Mr. Biden’s comments.
Few on the president’s national security team expected anything different from Mr. Putin, given Russia’s behavior in the past several weeks, which has included strikes on infrastructure targets that have deprived major cities including Kyiv of heat, light and running water.
“This brutalization of Ukraine’s people is barbaric,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said at a NATO meeting in Romania on Wednesday.
Mr. Biden’s remark about speaking to Mr. Putin was not intended, the officials said, to signal a shift in policy or to indicate that the president was drifting from his commitment to ensuring that Ukraine’s leadership decided when and how to negotiate an end to the war.
Aides say the president continues to believe that negotiations will be necessary.
But they also say he does not believe that direct talks with Mr. Putin will be possible unless the “facts on the ground” change.
In his remarks on Thursday, Mr. Biden was careful to show deference to Ukraine and the NATO allies, saying he would talk to Mr. Putin only after consulting with them first.
In part, the message was intended to be a show of support for diplomacy by his counterparts.
Mr. Macron has stressed the importance of maintaining dialogue with the Russian leader, if only to avoid dangerous escalation or miscalculation.
He called Mr. Putin in August and is expected to meet with him in a few days.
Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, spoke to the Russian president on Friday morning.
A Kremlin readout of the call with Mr. Scholz blamed the West for the absence of talks, saying that the Western approach of “pumping the Kyiv regime with weapons” and providing it with financial and political support “leads Kyiv to reject any idea of negotiations.”
But there are other audiences to consider as well.
Some leaders are anxious about the economic impacts of a war that has driven up food and energy prices worldwide.
And in the United States, some Republican and progressive Democratic lawmakers have expressed frustration that the Biden administration, which has provided nearly $20 billion in military aid to Kyiv since the Russian invasion, appears to be writing “blank checks” without describing an end game for the conflict.
White House officials said the president’s comment about being willing to meet with Mr. Putin under certain circumstances was not directly aimed at those groups.
But the remark nonetheless signals that the Biden administration has not foreclosed the possibility of diplomacy, even though Mr. Biden has not spoken to Mr. Putin since mid-February.
Mr. Blinken has spoken to his counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, only once since mid-January, to discuss the potential release of two Americans imprisoned in Russia, Paul Whelan and Brittney Griner.
Mr. Biden also said in October that he would be willing to talk with Mr. Putin about releasing the two Americans.
Speaking a day before Mr. Biden’s comments, Mr. Rasmussen, the former NATO chief, said he did not believe that Ukraine would accept a peace deal that allowed Russia to occupy any part of its territory.
“I can conclude quite confidently that as long as you will see Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, you will have a conflict,” he said.
“The only off-ramp for Putin is, get out of Ukraine.”
Elisabetta Povoledo contributed reporting.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u- ... c3783973bd
"U.S. Sees Little Prospect for Ukraine Talks With Putin After Biden Offer"
Story by Michael Crowley and Michael D. Shear
2 DECEMBER 2022
WASHINGTON — A day after President Biden said he would be willing to talk with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia about a possible peace agreement in Ukraine, the Kremlin offered a frosty response, and prospects for settling the brutal conflict remained as distant as ever.
Mr. Biden said on Thursday that he would hold his first conversation with Mr. Putin since before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 if the Russian leader was “looking for a way to end the war.”
But U.S. officials said that Russia, as they have previously assessed, was not prepared to negotiate in good faith, and Russian officials repeated hard-line demands that are unacceptable to Kyiv.
Although Mr. Biden’s remark was taken by some as a new emphasis on moving toward peace talks with Russia, John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters that Mr. Biden’s position had not changed.
“The president has been very consistent about that,” Mr. Kirby said.
“He’s got no intentions to talk to Mr. Putin right now."
"As he also said, Putin has shown absolutely no inclination to be interested in dialogue of any kind."
"In fact, quite the contrary."
"Everything he’s doing shows that Mr. Putin is interested in continuing this illegal, unprovoked war.”
In Moscow, Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said at a news conference on Friday that Mr. Putin remained “open to contacts and negotiations” and that diplomacy was the “preferable way” to achieve Russia’s goals.
But Mr. Peskov noted that the United States “still does not recognize new territories as part of Russia,” an apparent reference to eastern Ukrainian regions that Mr. Putin claimed to annex after sham referendums in September, saying that “this makes more complicated the search for common ground for mutual discussions.”
In fact, the Russian position essentially rules out serious negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who said in a mid-November interview with Bloomberg News that the war could not end until Ukraine had reclaimed all its territory from Russia, including the purportedly annexed regions as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.
“The Russians have made it very clear that, of course, they are not in the mood for constructive dialogue and for constructive diplomacy,” the State Department spokesman, Ned Price, said at a press briefing.
Any conversation between Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin “is nothing more than a hypothetical at this time,” he added.
“We have been very clear that the United States and countries around the world will never — never, never, never — recognize territory that Russia has illegally annexed, either in 2014 or more recently, as part of its illegal and now brutal aggression against Ukraine,” Mr. Price added.
Mr. Biden’s comment — made during a news conference with the visiting President Emmanuel Macron of France, who has spoken to Mr. Putin several times over the past year, including in late August — follows some signs that senior U.S. officials have contemplated whether Ukraine’s recent successful offensives present a window for negotiations.
Last month, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark A. Milley, told reporters that Ukraine’s position of “strength” creates “a possibility” for a political solution.
But Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who served as NATO secretary general from 2009 to 2014, said this week during a visit to Washington that he had spoken with Biden administration officials and saw no sign that they were pressuring Ukraine’s government to begin negotiating with Russia.
“It was an idea that was just floated, but it has been immediately shut down,” Mr. Rasmussen said.
“It would really weaken the Western front if we tried to push Zelensky into premature peace negotiations, because that would be a trap.”
“Putin is not sincere when it comes to peace negotiations,” Mr. Rasmussen added.
Ukrainian officials have said the same, warning that Russia could try to pause the fighting for talks — but only to use that time to prepare for new military offensives.
Mr. Macron reaffirmed France’s support for Ukraine and nodded to the reality that a Ukrainian population enraged by Russia’s occupation is in no mood to compromise.
France “will never urge Ukrainians to make a compromise that will not be acceptable for them,” he said.
On Friday, Italy’s foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, said that Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure targets like power grids were “making any kind of dialogue impossible.”
“We all want peace, but it must come through Kyiv’s independence, not through its surrender,” Mr. Tajani said.
“The responsibility for this situation is only Russian."
"Now the Kremlin must give concrete signals instead of bombing the population.”
White House officials said they were not surprised by Russia’s reaction to Mr. Biden’s comments.
Few on the president’s national security team expected anything different from Mr. Putin, given Russia’s behavior in the past several weeks, which has included strikes on infrastructure targets that have deprived major cities including Kyiv of heat, light and running water.
“This brutalization of Ukraine’s people is barbaric,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said at a NATO meeting in Romania on Wednesday.
Mr. Biden’s remark about speaking to Mr. Putin was not intended, the officials said, to signal a shift in policy or to indicate that the president was drifting from his commitment to ensuring that Ukraine’s leadership decided when and how to negotiate an end to the war.
Aides say the president continues to believe that negotiations will be necessary.
But they also say he does not believe that direct talks with Mr. Putin will be possible unless the “facts on the ground” change.
In his remarks on Thursday, Mr. Biden was careful to show deference to Ukraine and the NATO allies, saying he would talk to Mr. Putin only after consulting with them first.
In part, the message was intended to be a show of support for diplomacy by his counterparts.
Mr. Macron has stressed the importance of maintaining dialogue with the Russian leader, if only to avoid dangerous escalation or miscalculation.
He called Mr. Putin in August and is expected to meet with him in a few days.
Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, spoke to the Russian president on Friday morning.
A Kremlin readout of the call with Mr. Scholz blamed the West for the absence of talks, saying that the Western approach of “pumping the Kyiv regime with weapons” and providing it with financial and political support “leads Kyiv to reject any idea of negotiations.”
But there are other audiences to consider as well.
Some leaders are anxious about the economic impacts of a war that has driven up food and energy prices worldwide.
And in the United States, some Republican and progressive Democratic lawmakers have expressed frustration that the Biden administration, which has provided nearly $20 billion in military aid to Kyiv since the Russian invasion, appears to be writing “blank checks” without describing an end game for the conflict.
White House officials said the president’s comment about being willing to meet with Mr. Putin under certain circumstances was not directly aimed at those groups.
But the remark nonetheless signals that the Biden administration has not foreclosed the possibility of diplomacy, even though Mr. Biden has not spoken to Mr. Putin since mid-February.
Mr. Blinken has spoken to his counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, only once since mid-January, to discuss the potential release of two Americans imprisoned in Russia, Paul Whelan and Brittney Griner.
Mr. Biden also said in October that he would be willing to talk with Mr. Putin about releasing the two Americans.
Speaking a day before Mr. Biden’s comments, Mr. Rasmussen, the former NATO chief, said he did not believe that Ukraine would accept a peace deal that allowed Russia to occupy any part of its territory.
“I can conclude quite confidently that as long as you will see Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, you will have a conflict,” he said.
“The only off-ramp for Putin is, get out of Ukraine.”
Elisabetta Povoledo contributed reporting.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u- ... c3783973bd
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
THE NATIONAL REVIEW
"‘Biden Team’ Requested Twitter Scrub Scandalous Hunter Biden Info Days before 2020 Election"
Story by Caroline Downey
2 DECEMBER 2022
In an email dated October 24, just days before the 2020 presidential election, the Biden campaign reportedly demanded that Twitter scrub information critical of Hunter Biden from the site, according to a jaw dropping release of “The Twitter Files” by new CEO Elon Musk.
Twitter staff forwarded a request from the “Biden team” to remove five tweets in particular.
“More to review from the Biden team,” the message, from the first installment of the documents analyzed by journalist Matt Taibbi, read.
“Handled,” was the reply.
Three of the tweets, from since-suspended accounts, featured scandalous graphic images of the president’s son posing with his genitalia exposed, according to archives, which were leaked from the laptop that the New York Post first uncovered.
In one image, Hunter Biden’s nudity is blotted out by red digital paint.
Hunter Biden abandoned the computer at a Delaware repair shop in April 2019.
It contained messages showing that then–vice president Joe Biden was introduced by his son to a top businessman at a Ukrainian energy firm “less than a year before the elder Biden pressured government officials in Ukraine into firing a prosecutor who was investigating the company,” the Post wrote in October 2020.
The correspondence contradicted Biden’s claim that he had “never spoken” to Hunter Biden “about his overseas business dealings.”
The internal documents screened by Taibbi show how Twitter gradually expanded its content-moderation regime to include obliging ad hoc requests from executives and political operatives from the Biden and Trump teams to delete content they deemed objectionable.
There was also great internal confusion and disorganization among Twitter management over the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop bombshell back in October 2020.
Twitter staff and leadership were caught in what appeared to be a tug-of-war over formulating the public justification to remove the New York Post’s exposé of the contents of the laptop.
The decision to stifle access to the report, including by blocking the posting of URLs to it, was made by top leadership of the company but without the knowledge of former CEO Jack Dorsey, according to Taibbi.
Former head of legal, policy, and trust Vijaya Gadde was allegedly intimately involved.
“They just freelanced it,” a former Twitter employee reportedly told Taibbi of Twitter’s justification for censoring the scoop.
“Hacking was the excuse, but within a few hours, pretty much everyone realized that wasn’t going to hold."
"But no one had the guts to reverse it.”
Chaos ensued at Twitter as the move to suppress the story came under intense scrutiny.
In an email addressed to Gadde and former trust and safety chief Yoel Roth, who led the team that suppressed the story, Trenton Kennedy, former U.S. policy communications manager at Twitter, expressed befuddlement over the company’s public communications characterizing the story as dangerous for viewers.
“I’m struggling to understand the policy basis for marking this unsafe, and I think the best explainability argument for this externally would be that we’re waiting to understand if this story is the result of hacked materials,” Kennedy wrote to senior staff.
“We’ll face hard questions on this if we don’t have some kind of solid reasoning for marking the link unsafe.”
An analyst from Twitter’s global escalations team confirmed that initially, the story was scrapped on the grounds that it violated the company’s “hacked materials” policy.
Twitter took dramatic measures to thwart circulation of the story, removing links and warning that it could be “unsafe.”
In an email Taibbi reviewed, Trump campaign staffer Mike Hahn demanded to know why Twitter was so adamant about silencing firsthand reporting and when Kayleigh McEnany, who was deplatformed for citing the story, would be reinstated.
“I also don’t [appreciate] how nobody on this team called me regarding the news that you’ll be censoring news articles,” Hahn wrote.
“At least pretend to care for the next 20 days.”
Musk had teased his 2020 document dump last week when he responded to a tweet by Alex Lorusso, an executive producer at Newsmax, asking him to publicize Twitter’s internal discussions surrounding the company’s decision to censor Hunter Biden’s laptop in the leadup to the 2020 presidential election.
“Raise your hand if you think @ElonMusk should make public all internal discussions about the decision to censor the @NYPost’s story on Hunter Biden’s laptop before the 2020 Election in the interest of Transparency,” Lorusso tweeted at the time.
Musk responded: “This is necessary to restore public trust.”
Many have long criticized Twitter for censoring conservative voices, and Musk’s latest announcement could shed light on the internal sequence of events contributing to the story’s censoring, considered by many to be one of the biggest of the 2020 election cycle.
Since Musk assumed control of the social-media platform in late October, he has brought in numerous reforms including cleaning house, testing a new verification system, and reinstating users who were banned under Twitter’s old leadership.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... c3783973bd
"‘Biden Team’ Requested Twitter Scrub Scandalous Hunter Biden Info Days before 2020 Election"
Story by Caroline Downey
2 DECEMBER 2022
In an email dated October 24, just days before the 2020 presidential election, the Biden campaign reportedly demanded that Twitter scrub information critical of Hunter Biden from the site, according to a jaw dropping release of “The Twitter Files” by new CEO Elon Musk.
Twitter staff forwarded a request from the “Biden team” to remove five tweets in particular.
“More to review from the Biden team,” the message, from the first installment of the documents analyzed by journalist Matt Taibbi, read.
“Handled,” was the reply.
Three of the tweets, from since-suspended accounts, featured scandalous graphic images of the president’s son posing with his genitalia exposed, according to archives, which were leaked from the laptop that the New York Post first uncovered.
In one image, Hunter Biden’s nudity is blotted out by red digital paint.
Hunter Biden abandoned the computer at a Delaware repair shop in April 2019.
It contained messages showing that then–vice president Joe Biden was introduced by his son to a top businessman at a Ukrainian energy firm “less than a year before the elder Biden pressured government officials in Ukraine into firing a prosecutor who was investigating the company,” the Post wrote in October 2020.
The correspondence contradicted Biden’s claim that he had “never spoken” to Hunter Biden “about his overseas business dealings.”
The internal documents screened by Taibbi show how Twitter gradually expanded its content-moderation regime to include obliging ad hoc requests from executives and political operatives from the Biden and Trump teams to delete content they deemed objectionable.
There was also great internal confusion and disorganization among Twitter management over the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop bombshell back in October 2020.
Twitter staff and leadership were caught in what appeared to be a tug-of-war over formulating the public justification to remove the New York Post’s exposé of the contents of the laptop.
The decision to stifle access to the report, including by blocking the posting of URLs to it, was made by top leadership of the company but without the knowledge of former CEO Jack Dorsey, according to Taibbi.
Former head of legal, policy, and trust Vijaya Gadde was allegedly intimately involved.
“They just freelanced it,” a former Twitter employee reportedly told Taibbi of Twitter’s justification for censoring the scoop.
“Hacking was the excuse, but within a few hours, pretty much everyone realized that wasn’t going to hold."
"But no one had the guts to reverse it.”
Chaos ensued at Twitter as the move to suppress the story came under intense scrutiny.
In an email addressed to Gadde and former trust and safety chief Yoel Roth, who led the team that suppressed the story, Trenton Kennedy, former U.S. policy communications manager at Twitter, expressed befuddlement over the company’s public communications characterizing the story as dangerous for viewers.
“I’m struggling to understand the policy basis for marking this unsafe, and I think the best explainability argument for this externally would be that we’re waiting to understand if this story is the result of hacked materials,” Kennedy wrote to senior staff.
“We’ll face hard questions on this if we don’t have some kind of solid reasoning for marking the link unsafe.”
An analyst from Twitter’s global escalations team confirmed that initially, the story was scrapped on the grounds that it violated the company’s “hacked materials” policy.
Twitter took dramatic measures to thwart circulation of the story, removing links and warning that it could be “unsafe.”
In an email Taibbi reviewed, Trump campaign staffer Mike Hahn demanded to know why Twitter was so adamant about silencing firsthand reporting and when Kayleigh McEnany, who was deplatformed for citing the story, would be reinstated.
“I also don’t [appreciate] how nobody on this team called me regarding the news that you’ll be censoring news articles,” Hahn wrote.
“At least pretend to care for the next 20 days.”
Musk had teased his 2020 document dump last week when he responded to a tweet by Alex Lorusso, an executive producer at Newsmax, asking him to publicize Twitter’s internal discussions surrounding the company’s decision to censor Hunter Biden’s laptop in the leadup to the 2020 presidential election.
“Raise your hand if you think @ElonMusk should make public all internal discussions about the decision to censor the @NYPost’s story on Hunter Biden’s laptop before the 2020 Election in the interest of Transparency,” Lorusso tweeted at the time.
Musk responded: “This is necessary to restore public trust.”
Many have long criticized Twitter for censoring conservative voices, and Musk’s latest announcement could shed light on the internal sequence of events contributing to the story’s censoring, considered by many to be one of the biggest of the 2020 election cycle.
Since Musk assumed control of the social-media platform in late October, he has brought in numerous reforms including cleaning house, testing a new verification system, and reinstating users who were banned under Twitter’s old leadership.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... c3783973bd