CNBC
"10-year yield slides below 2.70% as jobless claims increase"
Silvia Amaro @SILVIA_AMARO
PUBLISHED THU, AUG 4 2022
U.S. government debt prices rose Thursday morning after investors welcomed a new batch of positive economic data.
At around 4:00 p.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down at 2.667% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell to 2.9656%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
On the data front, initial jobless claims rose to 260,000 for the week ended July 30, in line with estimates from the Dow Jones.
The latest reading comes ahead of the big jobs report Friday.
Data released Wednesday showed a surprise rebound in the U.S. services sector in July and solid factory orders, which eased concerns over the U.S. economy and pushed stocks higher on the day.
On Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated that the central bank plans to raise interest rates to combat high inflation.
That echoed comments on from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who told CNBC Wednesday that he doesn’t think the U.S. is in a recession and that the central bank will continue to raise rates to deal with inflation.
“As the chair said, we’re not in recession right now,” Bullard said during a “Squawk Box” interview.
“With all the job growth in the first half of the year, it’s hard to say that there was a recession.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/us-trea ... r-fed.html
THE DAILY NEWS
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"Weekly jobless claims rise to 260,000 ahead of nonfarm payrolls report"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED THU, AUG 4 2022
KEY POINTS
* Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 260,000 last week, in line with estimates.
* The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $79.6 billion in June, slightly lower than the estimate for $80 billion.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 260,000 last week, near the highest level since November amid a shift in the U.S. labor market.
The total for the week ended July 30 was in line with the Dow Jones estimate but a gain of 6,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
In other economic news, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $79.6 billion in June, down $5.3 billion and slightly lower than the estimate for $80 billion.
The jobless claims number comes a day before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its much anticipated nonfarm payrolls report for July.
That is expected the show the U.S. economy added 258,000 positions in the month, compared with the 372,000 initial June estimate and the lowest total since December 2020.
“The labor market remains in good shape as the summer quarter progresses but the rise in initial claims since early April is a cold breeze blowing at the hot labor market this summer,” said Stuart Hoffman, senior economic advisor at PNC Financial Services.
Federal Reserve officials are watching the jobs market closely for clues about an economy that is showing the highest inflation rate in more than 40 years.
Jobless claims had been running around their lowest levels since the late 1960s but started ticking higher in June as inflation pressures swelled and companies started cutting back on hires.
Even with robust hiring in 2021 and the first half of 2022, the total employment level is 755,000 below where it was in February 2020, the last month before the Covid pandemic hit.
The four-week moving average of jobless claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, reflects the shift in the jobs market.
That number rose 6,000 from the previous week to 254,750, up sharply from the recent low of 170,500 on April 2 and the highest level of the year.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, totaled 1.42 million, up 48,000 from the prior week and 83,000 from the beginning of July.
Trade deficit comes off record high
On the trade side, the lower deficit reflects a shift back to a more normal environment after the U.S. shortfall with its global trading partners hit a record $107.7 billion in March.
Exports rose $4.3 billion while imports declined by $1 billion.
However, the goods deficit with China rose $4.7 billion to just shy of $37 billion.
Imports on auto vehicles, parts and engines declined $2.7 billion while capital goods increased nearly $1 billion.
Even with the June decline in the deficit, it is still 33.4% higher than a year ago as domestic supply has failed to keep up with strong demand.
That has fueled an inflation rate running at its highest level since the early 1980s.
The Federal Reserve has instituted a series of four interest rate increases this year totaling 2.25 percentage points, in part an effort to curb some of that pandemic-era demand.
Fresh inflation numbers will be released next week, after June’s consumer price index showed a 12-month increase of 9.1%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/us-week ... aims-.html
"Weekly jobless claims rise to 260,000 ahead of nonfarm payrolls report"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED THU, AUG 4 2022
KEY POINTS
* Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 260,000 last week, in line with estimates.
* The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $79.6 billion in June, slightly lower than the estimate for $80 billion.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 260,000 last week, near the highest level since November amid a shift in the U.S. labor market.
The total for the week ended July 30 was in line with the Dow Jones estimate but a gain of 6,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
In other economic news, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $79.6 billion in June, down $5.3 billion and slightly lower than the estimate for $80 billion.
The jobless claims number comes a day before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its much anticipated nonfarm payrolls report for July.
That is expected the show the U.S. economy added 258,000 positions in the month, compared with the 372,000 initial June estimate and the lowest total since December 2020.
“The labor market remains in good shape as the summer quarter progresses but the rise in initial claims since early April is a cold breeze blowing at the hot labor market this summer,” said Stuart Hoffman, senior economic advisor at PNC Financial Services.
Federal Reserve officials are watching the jobs market closely for clues about an economy that is showing the highest inflation rate in more than 40 years.
Jobless claims had been running around their lowest levels since the late 1960s but started ticking higher in June as inflation pressures swelled and companies started cutting back on hires.
Even with robust hiring in 2021 and the first half of 2022, the total employment level is 755,000 below where it was in February 2020, the last month before the Covid pandemic hit.
The four-week moving average of jobless claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, reflects the shift in the jobs market.
That number rose 6,000 from the previous week to 254,750, up sharply from the recent low of 170,500 on April 2 and the highest level of the year.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, totaled 1.42 million, up 48,000 from the prior week and 83,000 from the beginning of July.
Trade deficit comes off record high
On the trade side, the lower deficit reflects a shift back to a more normal environment after the U.S. shortfall with its global trading partners hit a record $107.7 billion in March.
Exports rose $4.3 billion while imports declined by $1 billion.
However, the goods deficit with China rose $4.7 billion to just shy of $37 billion.
Imports on auto vehicles, parts and engines declined $2.7 billion while capital goods increased nearly $1 billion.
Even with the June decline in the deficit, it is still 33.4% higher than a year ago as domestic supply has failed to keep up with strong demand.
That has fueled an inflation rate running at its highest level since the early 1980s.
The Federal Reserve has instituted a series of four interest rate increases this year totaling 2.25 percentage points, in part an effort to curb some of that pandemic-era demand.
Fresh inflation numbers will be released next week, after June’s consumer price index showed a 12-month increase of 9.1%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/us-week ... aims-.html
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"TREASURIES-U.S. yields fall on economic worries, with payrolls data ahead"
By Reuters Staff
AUGUST 4, 2022
Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday, as a gloomy outlook from the Bank of England fueled global recession concerns while investors readied for U.S. jobs data to wrap up what had been a volatile week for the bond market.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 5.3 basis points to 2.696%.
The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by the most in 27 years and warned that a long recession is on its way, exacerbating worries that the Fed and other central banks will have to continue tightening monetary policy to fight inflation even as it crimps U.S. growth.
"The Bank of England put economic worries front and center again,” said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.
“Although we have had some good earnings reports, the market is starting to price in the idea of a recession.”
Key Treasury yields were pressured slightly in early trade by economic data.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week, suggesting some softening in the labor market, though overall conditions remain tight, data on Thursday showed.
Meanwhile the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in June as exports surged to a record high, a trend that could see trade continuing to contribute to gross domestic product in the third quarter.
Investors will get a key snapshot of how the U.S. economy is faring on Friday, when the Labor Department reports employment data for July.
Signs that the U.S. job market continues to be robust will likely bolster expectations for more monetary policy tightening from the Fed and fuel recession worries, potentially sending yields lower.
"I think the jobs data will continue to tell us that inflation is high and job growth is solid, and it will continue to increase expectations that the Fed will tighten policy," said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest rate strategist at TD Securities in New York.
Thursday's moves come after several days of big swings in Treasury markets, driven by investor unease over U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan and shifting views of how aggressive the Fed will be in its fight against inflation.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, hit a four-month low of 2.516% on Tuesday, before rebounding later in the week.
A trio of Fed officials from across the policy spectrum pushed back against on Tuesday pushed back against expectations of Fed dovishness, saying they remained resolute on getting U.S. interest rates up to a level that will put a dent in the highest inflation since the 1980s.
"The 'data dependence' rollercoaster is fully operational, with Treasury yields rising and falling with data and Fed speak," analysts at Societe Generale said in a note to clients.
"While volatility is here to stay, we expect the (10-year yield) to remain in the 2.5-3% range over the coming weeks and curves to retain a flattening bias."
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 0.3 basis points to 2.980%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, closed at -35.7 basis points and reached its deepest inversion since 2000.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 5.9 basis points at 3.049%.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.456%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging around 2.5% a year for the next decade.
At Thursday's auction of U.S. 8-week bills, non-competitive bids totaled $3.2 billion.
(Reporting by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Alden Bentley)
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2ZG2GB
"TREASURIES-U.S. yields fall on economic worries, with payrolls data ahead"
By Reuters Staff
AUGUST 4, 2022
Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday, as a gloomy outlook from the Bank of England fueled global recession concerns while investors readied for U.S. jobs data to wrap up what had been a volatile week for the bond market.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 5.3 basis points to 2.696%.
The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by the most in 27 years and warned that a long recession is on its way, exacerbating worries that the Fed and other central banks will have to continue tightening monetary policy to fight inflation even as it crimps U.S. growth.
"The Bank of England put economic worries front and center again,” said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.
“Although we have had some good earnings reports, the market is starting to price in the idea of a recession.”
Key Treasury yields were pressured slightly in early trade by economic data.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week, suggesting some softening in the labor market, though overall conditions remain tight, data on Thursday showed.
Meanwhile the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in June as exports surged to a record high, a trend that could see trade continuing to contribute to gross domestic product in the third quarter.
Investors will get a key snapshot of how the U.S. economy is faring on Friday, when the Labor Department reports employment data for July.
Signs that the U.S. job market continues to be robust will likely bolster expectations for more monetary policy tightening from the Fed and fuel recession worries, potentially sending yields lower.
"I think the jobs data will continue to tell us that inflation is high and job growth is solid, and it will continue to increase expectations that the Fed will tighten policy," said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest rate strategist at TD Securities in New York.
Thursday's moves come after several days of big swings in Treasury markets, driven by investor unease over U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan and shifting views of how aggressive the Fed will be in its fight against inflation.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, hit a four-month low of 2.516% on Tuesday, before rebounding later in the week.
A trio of Fed officials from across the policy spectrum pushed back against on Tuesday pushed back against expectations of Fed dovishness, saying they remained resolute on getting U.S. interest rates up to a level that will put a dent in the highest inflation since the 1980s.
"The 'data dependence' rollercoaster is fully operational, with Treasury yields rising and falling with data and Fed speak," analysts at Societe Generale said in a note to clients.
"While volatility is here to stay, we expect the (10-year yield) to remain in the 2.5-3% range over the coming weeks and curves to retain a flattening bias."
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 0.3 basis points to 2.980%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, closed at -35.7 basis points and reached its deepest inversion since 2000.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 5.9 basis points at 3.049%.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.456%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging around 2.5% a year for the next decade.
At Thursday's auction of U.S. 8-week bills, non-competitive bids totaled $3.2 billion.
(Reporting by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Alden Bentley)
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2ZG2GB
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"German cabinet agrees to gas levy for consumers from October"
Reuters
August 4, 2022
BERLIN, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Germany's cabinet has agreed to introduce a planned levy on gas consumers from October to help suppliers hit by soaring gas import prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the economy ministry said on Thursday.
The plan, announced last week, comes as Europe's biggest economy tries to reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
It is facing a collapse in gas supplies and soaring prices, raising fears of energy shortages and insolvencies among gas traders.
"The temporary levy is a result of the crisis caused by Russia."
"It is not an easy step to take, but a necessary one to guarantee heating and energy supply in private households and the economy," said Economy Minister Robert Habeck in a statement.
The levy on consumers, to be accompanied by targeted relief, is aimed at helping importers, especially Uniper, Germany's largest recipient of Russian gas, which is receiving a state bail-out.
Other companies include EnBW's gas division VNG.
The levy is expected to take effect from Oct. 1 and end on April 1, 2024, said the ministry.
Its exact size will be published in mid-August, said the ministry.
Habeck said last week it would be between 1.5 euro cents and 5 euro cents per kilowatt hour (Kwh), with the proceeds available to any company having to replace Russian gas.
Government and parliamentary sources have told Reuters it still has to be clarified how the levy will be applied to customers with fixed-price contracts.
Reporting by Christian Kraemer; Writing by Madeline Chambers; Editing by Janet Lawrence
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-08-04/
"German cabinet agrees to gas levy for consumers from October"
Reuters
August 4, 2022
BERLIN, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Germany's cabinet has agreed to introduce a planned levy on gas consumers from October to help suppliers hit by soaring gas import prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the economy ministry said on Thursday.
The plan, announced last week, comes as Europe's biggest economy tries to reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
It is facing a collapse in gas supplies and soaring prices, raising fears of energy shortages and insolvencies among gas traders.
"The temporary levy is a result of the crisis caused by Russia."
"It is not an easy step to take, but a necessary one to guarantee heating and energy supply in private households and the economy," said Economy Minister Robert Habeck in a statement.
The levy on consumers, to be accompanied by targeted relief, is aimed at helping importers, especially Uniper, Germany's largest recipient of Russian gas, which is receiving a state bail-out.
Other companies include EnBW's gas division VNG.
The levy is expected to take effect from Oct. 1 and end on April 1, 2024, said the ministry.
Its exact size will be published in mid-August, said the ministry.
Habeck said last week it would be between 1.5 euro cents and 5 euro cents per kilowatt hour (Kwh), with the proceeds available to any company having to replace Russian gas.
Government and parliamentary sources have told Reuters it still has to be clarified how the levy will be applied to customers with fixed-price contracts.
Reporting by Christian Kraemer; Writing by Madeline Chambers; Editing by Janet Lawrence
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-08-04/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Fed's Mester sees policy rate above 4%, hikes through mid-2023"
By Lindsay Dunsmuir
August 4, 2022
Aug 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to above 4% to help bring inflation down and must aim to keep tightening through the first half of next year, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Thursday.
"I would pencil in going a bit above four as appropriate," Mester told reporters following an event held at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, in reference to the central bank's policy rate, making her one of the most hawkish members of the rate-setting committee.
"It's not unreasonable I think to maintain that as where we're getting to and then we'll see."
A bevy of policymakers have this week near uniformly flagged that the central bank remains determined to press ahead with rate hikes until it sees strong and long-lasting evidence that inflation is on track back down to the Fed's 2% goal.
Mester once again repeated comments earlier this week that she'll need to see several months of monthly declines in inflation before she feels the Fed can ease up on rates and offered a more precise trajectory on how quickly she and her colleagues could get there.
"Interest rates continue to rise this year and into next year through the first half and maybe by then we can pause and we can start bringing them back down," Mester said.
On the size of rate hike needed at the Fed's next policy meeting on Sept. 20-21, the Cleveland Fed chief said she was keeping an open mind.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already indicated it will likely be another unusually large lift in borrowing costs.
"It's not unreasonable to think we might have to do a 75 (basis point move) but I can imagine it could be a 50."
"We'll just have to look at the data as it comes in," Mester said.
Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Deepa Babington
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds ... 022-08-04/
"Fed's Mester sees policy rate above 4%, hikes through mid-2023"
By Lindsay Dunsmuir
August 4, 2022
Aug 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to above 4% to help bring inflation down and must aim to keep tightening through the first half of next year, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Thursday.
"I would pencil in going a bit above four as appropriate," Mester told reporters following an event held at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, in reference to the central bank's policy rate, making her one of the most hawkish members of the rate-setting committee.
"It's not unreasonable I think to maintain that as where we're getting to and then we'll see."
A bevy of policymakers have this week near uniformly flagged that the central bank remains determined to press ahead with rate hikes until it sees strong and long-lasting evidence that inflation is on track back down to the Fed's 2% goal.
Mester once again repeated comments earlier this week that she'll need to see several months of monthly declines in inflation before she feels the Fed can ease up on rates and offered a more precise trajectory on how quickly she and her colleagues could get there.
"Interest rates continue to rise this year and into next year through the first half and maybe by then we can pause and we can start bringing them back down," Mester said.
On the size of rate hike needed at the Fed's next policy meeting on Sept. 20-21, the Cleveland Fed chief said she was keeping an open mind.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already indicated it will likely be another unusually large lift in borrowing costs.
"It's not unreasonable to think we might have to do a 75 (basis point move) but I can imagine it could be a 50."
"We'll just have to look at the data as it comes in," Mester said.
Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Deepa Babington
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds ... 022-08-04/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"U.S. weekly jobless claims increase, but labor market remains tight"
By Lucia Mutikani
August 4, 2022
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims increase 6,000 to 260,000
* Continuing claims rise 48,000 to 1.416 million
* Trade deficit shrinks 6.2% to $79.6 billion in June
WASHINGTON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week, suggesting some softening in the labor market, though overall conditions remain tight.
That was underscored by other data on Thursday showing a sharp decline in layoffs announced by U.S.-based companies in July.
The still-low level of unemployment claims and brisk pace of hiring support views that the economy is not in recession despite gross domestic product contracting in the first half.
"The risk is that claims continue to drift higher as labor market conditions slowly cool, but we don't anticipate a sharp rise from current levels any time soon as demand for workers continues to outstrip supply," said Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended July 30, the Labor Department said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 259,000 applications for the latest week.
Some of the recent increase in claims could be the result of difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations.
Motor vehicle manufacturers normally shutdown assembly plants for annual retooling in July, resulting in temporary layoffs.
But chip shortages could have disrupted the timing of the retooling, potentially throwing off the model that the government uses to strip seasonal fluctuations from the data.
Unadjusted claims fell 9,825 to 205,587 last week.
A big jump in filings in Connecticut was offset by notable decreases in Massachusetts, Kentucky and Ohio.
Seasonally adjusted claims broke above 230,000 at the beginning of June, hitting an eight-month high of 261,000 in mid-July.
However, they remain below the 270,000-300,000 range that economists say would signal a slowdown in the labor market.
"If initial claims start to hover around that level, it would be cause for concern, since it would increase the risk that employment starts declining and the unemployment rate begins to rise," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
"A rising unemployment rate sends an ominous warning of recession."
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 48,000 to 1.416 million during the week ending July 23.
The so-called continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, were the highest in three months.
Stocks on Wall Street were little changed.
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices rose.
LOW LAYOFFS
The economy contracted 1.3% in the first half, meeting the definition of a recession.
Wild swings in inventories and the trade deficit tied to snarled global supply chains have been largely to blame for the two straight quarterly declines in gross domestic product.
There were 10.7 million job openings at the end of June, with 1.8 openings for every unemployed worker.
For now, layoffs remain very low.
A separate report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday showed job cuts announced by U.S.-based companies dropped 20.6% to 25,810 in July.
So far this year, employers have announced 159,021 layoffs, down 31.3% from the same period last year and the lowest January-July since 1993.
Job cuts this year have been concentrated in the automotive, technology and financial sectors.
Semiconductor shortages have hampered the auto industry, while layoffs in the technology and financial sector reflect cooling demand because of higher interest rates.
The Federal Reserve last week raised its policy rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point.
The U.S. central bank has now hiked that rate by 225 basis points since March.
"Job cut levels are nowhere near where they were in the 2001 and 2008 recessions right now, though they may be ticking up," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
"If we're in a recession, we have yet to feel it in the labor market."
The claims data has no bearing on July's employment report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 250,000 jobs last month after rising by 372,000 in June.
A third report from the Commerce Department on Thursday showed the trade deficit narrowed 6.2% to $79.6 billion in June as exports surged to a record high.
Trade was the economy's only bright spot in the second quarter, adding 1.43 percentage points to GDP after being a drag for seven straight quarters.
"That provides a decent base for net exports to continue boosting GDP growth going in the third quarter," said Andrew Hunter, an economist at Capital Economics.
"But with the latest survey evidence suggesting that faltering global growth and the stronger dollar are set to hit export demand over the coming months, that support probably won't be sustained."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Bill Rigby
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 022-08-04/
"U.S. weekly jobless claims increase, but labor market remains tight"
By Lucia Mutikani
August 4, 2022
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims increase 6,000 to 260,000
* Continuing claims rise 48,000 to 1.416 million
* Trade deficit shrinks 6.2% to $79.6 billion in June
WASHINGTON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week, suggesting some softening in the labor market, though overall conditions remain tight.
That was underscored by other data on Thursday showing a sharp decline in layoffs announced by U.S.-based companies in July.
The still-low level of unemployment claims and brisk pace of hiring support views that the economy is not in recession despite gross domestic product contracting in the first half.
"The risk is that claims continue to drift higher as labor market conditions slowly cool, but we don't anticipate a sharp rise from current levels any time soon as demand for workers continues to outstrip supply," said Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended July 30, the Labor Department said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 259,000 applications for the latest week.
Some of the recent increase in claims could be the result of difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations.
Motor vehicle manufacturers normally shutdown assembly plants for annual retooling in July, resulting in temporary layoffs.
But chip shortages could have disrupted the timing of the retooling, potentially throwing off the model that the government uses to strip seasonal fluctuations from the data.
Unadjusted claims fell 9,825 to 205,587 last week.
A big jump in filings in Connecticut was offset by notable decreases in Massachusetts, Kentucky and Ohio.
Seasonally adjusted claims broke above 230,000 at the beginning of June, hitting an eight-month high of 261,000 in mid-July.
However, they remain below the 270,000-300,000 range that economists say would signal a slowdown in the labor market.
"If initial claims start to hover around that level, it would be cause for concern, since it would increase the risk that employment starts declining and the unemployment rate begins to rise," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
"A rising unemployment rate sends an ominous warning of recession."
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 48,000 to 1.416 million during the week ending July 23.
The so-called continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, were the highest in three months.
Stocks on Wall Street were little changed.
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices rose.
LOW LAYOFFS
The economy contracted 1.3% in the first half, meeting the definition of a recession.
Wild swings in inventories and the trade deficit tied to snarled global supply chains have been largely to blame for the two straight quarterly declines in gross domestic product.
There were 10.7 million job openings at the end of June, with 1.8 openings for every unemployed worker.
For now, layoffs remain very low.
A separate report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday showed job cuts announced by U.S.-based companies dropped 20.6% to 25,810 in July.
So far this year, employers have announced 159,021 layoffs, down 31.3% from the same period last year and the lowest January-July since 1993.
Job cuts this year have been concentrated in the automotive, technology and financial sectors.
Semiconductor shortages have hampered the auto industry, while layoffs in the technology and financial sector reflect cooling demand because of higher interest rates.
The Federal Reserve last week raised its policy rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point.
The U.S. central bank has now hiked that rate by 225 basis points since March.
"Job cut levels are nowhere near where they were in the 2001 and 2008 recessions right now, though they may be ticking up," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
"If we're in a recession, we have yet to feel it in the labor market."
The claims data has no bearing on July's employment report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 250,000 jobs last month after rising by 372,000 in June.
A third report from the Commerce Department on Thursday showed the trade deficit narrowed 6.2% to $79.6 billion in June as exports surged to a record high.
Trade was the economy's only bright spot in the second quarter, adding 1.43 percentage points to GDP after being a drag for seven straight quarters.
"That provides a decent base for net exports to continue boosting GDP growth going in the third quarter," said Andrew Hunter, an economist at Capital Economics.
"But with the latest survey evidence suggesting that faltering global growth and the stronger dollar are set to hit export demand over the coming months, that support probably won't be sustained."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Bill Rigby
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 022-08-04/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Oil drops with dollar on recession fears; Wall Street ends mixed"
By Kevin Buckland
AUGUST 3, 2022
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Crude oil sank with Treasury yields and the dollar on Thursday as recession worries intensified following the Bank of England’s warning of a drawn-out downturn and ahead of key a hotly anticipated U.S. employment report on Friday.
Wall Street stocks ended mixed, with gains for high-growth stocks offset by the drag from energy shares, as a key U.S. jobs report loomed on Friday.
The S&P 500 edged slightly lower to 4,151.94, retreating from a two-month closing high in the previous session.
The Dow dropped 0.26% to 32,726.82, from near an almost three-month high on Wednesday.
The Nasdaq, though, swung to a 0.44% gain to 13,311.041 from steep early losses, extending a three-month peak.
The two-year Treasury yield eased 7.1 basis points to 3.0366%, while the 10-year yield slipped 6.3 basis points to 2.6846%.
The gap between them went as wide as negative 39.2 basis points earlier in the day, the deepest inversion since 2000.
An inverted curve is often viewed as portending a recession.
Crude oil prices dropped to levels last seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Brent crude futures settled down $2.66 at $94.12, the lowest close since Feb. 18.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $2.34 at $88.54, the lowest close since Feb. 2.
Traders fretted that any recession could torpedo energy demand, while an unexpected surge in U.S. crude inventories also weighed on prices, which had surged to over $120 a barrel this year.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that the economy is not currently in recession, but the risks of one have risen, while reiterating the central bank’s resolve to continue with aggressive tightening until there is compelling evidence of a let up in inflation.
The monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be closely watched on Friday for clues on whether the tight labor market will continue to push up wages.
Data early Thursday showed a tick up in jobless claims.
“Expectations that we’re headed for a recession are clear, and the clearest signal is coming from the Treasury market,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.
“Things are looking worse abroad, and there’s an expectation that we’re going to see more economic weakness going into year-end, and it’s hard to be optimistic on equities.”
The Bank of England delivered a bigger, half-point rate rise earlier in the day, joining the Federal Reserve and other central banks in an accelerated race to catch inflation.
But the hike was widely expected, and investors were more focused on the central bank’s warning that a lengthy recession is on the way.
“The main surprise seems to be the somewhat downbeat economic forecasts that we have also been given,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital.
“That is somewhat worse than what we had seen in May, where the outlook was for one or two difficult quarters of low or negative growth, and then a recovery.”
Britain’s FTSE 100 stock index was little changed, compared to small gains for the pan-European STOXX 600 index following some solid corporate earnings.
The euro added 0.59% to 0.84205 against the British pound, and rose as high as 0.8438 at one point for the first time since July 26.
Sterling recovered though to be up 0.12% at $1.2163 after earlier dipping to $1.2065 for the first time since July 29.
The greenback accelerated declines amid lower U.S. yields, with the dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts including sterling, the euro and the yen - sliding 0.68% to 105.76.
The dollar dropped 0.66% to 132.94 yen, with the currency pair particularly sensitive to long-term Treasury yields.
Spot gold jumped 1.5% to a one-month high of $1,794.79 an ounce, helped by lower U.S. yields and a weaker dollar.
Cryptocurrency bitcoin eased 1.3% to $22,536, as it continued its slow retreat from the 1 1/2-month high at $24,676 reached on Saturday.
It failed to get a lift from Coinbase’s announcement of a tie-up with BlackRock to provide the money manager’s institutional clients with access to crypto trading and custody services.
Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Alden Bentley, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter and Susan Fenton
https://www.reuters.com/article/global- ... SL1N2ZG2GM
"Oil drops with dollar on recession fears; Wall Street ends mixed"
By Kevin Buckland
AUGUST 3, 2022
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Crude oil sank with Treasury yields and the dollar on Thursday as recession worries intensified following the Bank of England’s warning of a drawn-out downturn and ahead of key a hotly anticipated U.S. employment report on Friday.
Wall Street stocks ended mixed, with gains for high-growth stocks offset by the drag from energy shares, as a key U.S. jobs report loomed on Friday.
The S&P 500 edged slightly lower to 4,151.94, retreating from a two-month closing high in the previous session.
The Dow dropped 0.26% to 32,726.82, from near an almost three-month high on Wednesday.
The Nasdaq, though, swung to a 0.44% gain to 13,311.041 from steep early losses, extending a three-month peak.
The two-year Treasury yield eased 7.1 basis points to 3.0366%, while the 10-year yield slipped 6.3 basis points to 2.6846%.
The gap between them went as wide as negative 39.2 basis points earlier in the day, the deepest inversion since 2000.
An inverted curve is often viewed as portending a recession.
Crude oil prices dropped to levels last seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Brent crude futures settled down $2.66 at $94.12, the lowest close since Feb. 18.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $2.34 at $88.54, the lowest close since Feb. 2.
Traders fretted that any recession could torpedo energy demand, while an unexpected surge in U.S. crude inventories also weighed on prices, which had surged to over $120 a barrel this year.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that the economy is not currently in recession, but the risks of one have risen, while reiterating the central bank’s resolve to continue with aggressive tightening until there is compelling evidence of a let up in inflation.
The monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be closely watched on Friday for clues on whether the tight labor market will continue to push up wages.
Data early Thursday showed a tick up in jobless claims.
“Expectations that we’re headed for a recession are clear, and the clearest signal is coming from the Treasury market,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.
“Things are looking worse abroad, and there’s an expectation that we’re going to see more economic weakness going into year-end, and it’s hard to be optimistic on equities.”
The Bank of England delivered a bigger, half-point rate rise earlier in the day, joining the Federal Reserve and other central banks in an accelerated race to catch inflation.
But the hike was widely expected, and investors were more focused on the central bank’s warning that a lengthy recession is on the way.
“The main surprise seems to be the somewhat downbeat economic forecasts that we have also been given,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital.
“That is somewhat worse than what we had seen in May, where the outlook was for one or two difficult quarters of low or negative growth, and then a recovery.”
Britain’s FTSE 100 stock index was little changed, compared to small gains for the pan-European STOXX 600 index following some solid corporate earnings.
The euro added 0.59% to 0.84205 against the British pound, and rose as high as 0.8438 at one point for the first time since July 26.
Sterling recovered though to be up 0.12% at $1.2163 after earlier dipping to $1.2065 for the first time since July 29.
The greenback accelerated declines amid lower U.S. yields, with the dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts including sterling, the euro and the yen - sliding 0.68% to 105.76.
The dollar dropped 0.66% to 132.94 yen, with the currency pair particularly sensitive to long-term Treasury yields.
Spot gold jumped 1.5% to a one-month high of $1,794.79 an ounce, helped by lower U.S. yields and a weaker dollar.
Cryptocurrency bitcoin eased 1.3% to $22,536, as it continued its slow retreat from the 1 1/2-month high at $24,676 reached on Saturday.
It failed to get a lift from Coinbase’s announcement of a tie-up with BlackRock to provide the money manager’s institutional clients with access to crypto trading and custody services.
Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Alden Bentley, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter and Susan Fenton
https://www.reuters.com/article/global- ... SL1N2ZG2GM
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"White House frustrated as Washington mayor seeks troops to help handle migrants"
By Ted Hesson
3 AUGUST 2022
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Thousands of migrants bused to Washington in recent months by Republican governors of states on the U.S.-Mexico border have caused tensions between the White House and the Democratic mayor of the U.S. capital city, four U.S. officials told Reuters.
Last week, Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser called on President Joe Biden, a fellow Democrat, to mobilize the National Guard to provide aid and shelter for migrants arriving after long trips from Texas and Arizona.
White House officials and Washington-area volunteers helping migrants are voicing frustration, saying the aid is unnecessary and the request, which became public last week, plays into the hands of Biden's Republican critics.
"What people actually need is housing, transportation to their next cities, legal services and direct social services, which the military isn't really trained to do," said Ashley Tjhung, a 24-year-old volunteer.
The vast majority of migrants arriving in Washington spend only hours or days there before heading to other U.S. destinations, according to an ad-hoc network of volunteers.
Republican governors Greg Abbott of Texas and Doug Ducey of Arizona have sent around 7,000 migrants in recent months, the states said.
Just after sunrise on Friday, about 30 migrants disembarked from a charter bus near Washington's Union Station after a 36-hour ride from Del Rio, Texas, carrying their scant belongings in clear plastic bags.
The group included adults and families with young children traveling from Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua and Cuba.
They walked to a nearby church, taking photos of the U.S. Capitol building and Supreme Court along the way.
In the church basement, volunteers offered them breakfast, toothbrushes and clean clothes as they asked about medical needs and assisted with onward travel to New York, North Carolina and Florida.
"We have had constructive conversations with Mayor Bowser and her team," a White House spokesperson told Reuters.
"As we have said repeatedly, Republican governors using desperate migrants as political tools is shameful."
Bowser's office did not respond to requests for comment regarding the tensions.
In a July 22 letter to White House officials, Bowser said the issue "must be dealt with at a federal level."
BAD OPTICS
Other U.S. cities absorb thousands of migrants without the assistance of military troops.
Since Biden took office there have been a record-breaking 3 million migrant arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border; many are repeat crossers who are quickly expelled.
During the same period, hundreds of thousands of migrants have been allowed into the country and then often start the process of claiming U.S. asylum.
White House officials disagree with Bowser's portrayal of the migrant arrivals as a "crisis," which echoes Abbott's language about the border, three officials and another source familiar with the matter said.
"The message and the optics aren't what the White House wants to hear or see from a Democratic mayor," said one U.S. officials who, along with others, requested anonymity to discuss the internal consensus.
Senior Biden adviser Julie Chavez Rodriguez had been working with Bowser, the person familiar with the matter said, which made the request for troops even more irksome.
Washington is not a U.S. state or part of one, so the authority to summon National Guard troops rests with the U.S. military.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is taking Bowser's troop request "very seriously," according to a spokesperson.
In recent weeks, New York City Mayor Eric Adams also said migrants from the border were overwhelming city homeless shelters and asked for federal assistance.
On Friday, volunteers in Washington bought same-day bus tickets to New York City for several arriving migrants, including one Venezuelan family that had the address of a Bronx shelter intake center scrawled on a piece of paper.
A small number of the arriving migrants did say they planned to stay in Washington.
Among them was Colombian couple Juan Camilo Mendoza and Noralis Zuniga, who were traveling with their one-year-old daughter Evangeline.
They arrived in Texas after a grueling three-month journey that took them through the Darien Gap, a lawless stretch of mountainous jungle between Colombia and Panama where migrant traffic has jumped in recent months.
The couple do not have family or friends in the United States and came without a set destination, a growing phenomenon among those arriving in Washington, according to one volunteer.
"We only said, 'We're going to the United States.'"
"We didn't have a city," said Mendoza, a 24-year-old construction worker.
"If we can find work, we'll stay here."
(Reporting by Ted Hesson in Washington; Editing by Kristina Cooke, Mica Rosenberg and David Gregorio)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/white ... 39cdae3a9c
"White House frustrated as Washington mayor seeks troops to help handle migrants"
By Ted Hesson
3 AUGUST 2022
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Thousands of migrants bused to Washington in recent months by Republican governors of states on the U.S.-Mexico border have caused tensions between the White House and the Democratic mayor of the U.S. capital city, four U.S. officials told Reuters.
Last week, Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser called on President Joe Biden, a fellow Democrat, to mobilize the National Guard to provide aid and shelter for migrants arriving after long trips from Texas and Arizona.
White House officials and Washington-area volunteers helping migrants are voicing frustration, saying the aid is unnecessary and the request, which became public last week, plays into the hands of Biden's Republican critics.
"What people actually need is housing, transportation to their next cities, legal services and direct social services, which the military isn't really trained to do," said Ashley Tjhung, a 24-year-old volunteer.
The vast majority of migrants arriving in Washington spend only hours or days there before heading to other U.S. destinations, according to an ad-hoc network of volunteers.
Republican governors Greg Abbott of Texas and Doug Ducey of Arizona have sent around 7,000 migrants in recent months, the states said.
Just after sunrise on Friday, about 30 migrants disembarked from a charter bus near Washington's Union Station after a 36-hour ride from Del Rio, Texas, carrying their scant belongings in clear plastic bags.
The group included adults and families with young children traveling from Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua and Cuba.
They walked to a nearby church, taking photos of the U.S. Capitol building and Supreme Court along the way.
In the church basement, volunteers offered them breakfast, toothbrushes and clean clothes as they asked about medical needs and assisted with onward travel to New York, North Carolina and Florida.
"We have had constructive conversations with Mayor Bowser and her team," a White House spokesperson told Reuters.
"As we have said repeatedly, Republican governors using desperate migrants as political tools is shameful."
Bowser's office did not respond to requests for comment regarding the tensions.
In a July 22 letter to White House officials, Bowser said the issue "must be dealt with at a federal level."
BAD OPTICS
Other U.S. cities absorb thousands of migrants without the assistance of military troops.
Since Biden took office there have been a record-breaking 3 million migrant arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border; many are repeat crossers who are quickly expelled.
During the same period, hundreds of thousands of migrants have been allowed into the country and then often start the process of claiming U.S. asylum.
White House officials disagree with Bowser's portrayal of the migrant arrivals as a "crisis," which echoes Abbott's language about the border, three officials and another source familiar with the matter said.
"The message and the optics aren't what the White House wants to hear or see from a Democratic mayor," said one U.S. officials who, along with others, requested anonymity to discuss the internal consensus.
Senior Biden adviser Julie Chavez Rodriguez had been working with Bowser, the person familiar with the matter said, which made the request for troops even more irksome.
Washington is not a U.S. state or part of one, so the authority to summon National Guard troops rests with the U.S. military.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is taking Bowser's troop request "very seriously," according to a spokesperson.
In recent weeks, New York City Mayor Eric Adams also said migrants from the border were overwhelming city homeless shelters and asked for federal assistance.
On Friday, volunteers in Washington bought same-day bus tickets to New York City for several arriving migrants, including one Venezuelan family that had the address of a Bronx shelter intake center scrawled on a piece of paper.
A small number of the arriving migrants did say they planned to stay in Washington.
Among them was Colombian couple Juan Camilo Mendoza and Noralis Zuniga, who were traveling with their one-year-old daughter Evangeline.
They arrived in Texas after a grueling three-month journey that took them through the Darien Gap, a lawless stretch of mountainous jungle between Colombia and Panama where migrant traffic has jumped in recent months.
The couple do not have family or friends in the United States and came without a set destination, a growing phenomenon among those arriving in Washington, according to one volunteer.
"We only said, 'We're going to the United States.'"
"We didn't have a city," said Mendoza, a 24-year-old construction worker.
"If we can find work, we'll stay here."
(Reporting by Ted Hesson in Washington; Editing by Kristina Cooke, Mica Rosenberg and David Gregorio)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/white ... 39cdae3a9c
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
POLITICO
"Dems move to put a cork in the Biden-should-exit-stage-right talk"
By David Siders and Christopher Cadelago
4 AUGUST 2022
With Democrats increasingly airing their doubts about Joe Biden’s presidency, one allied Democratic National Committee member decided it was time to try and plug the chatter.
William Owen of Tennessee recently drafted a resolution to put his fellow committee members on record as being supportive of the sitting president.
The DNC has approved similar measures for past presidents.
But the motivation this time was different.
Owen said he wanted to blunt the pessimism surrounding Biden that was emanating from within the party’s own ranks.
“I keep reading all of these articles about Democrats saying they don’t want him to run,” Owen said, adding that the resolution he’s proposing to take up next month will “put all the DNC folks on record saying they are supporting him.”
That a DNC member felt the need to get his colleagues on record about their party’s leader speaks to the political predicament Biden finds himself in.
Less than 100 days before the midterm elections, the president’s job approval rating has fallen below 40 percent, and polls suggest majorities of Democrats would prefer a different nominee in 2024.
Even now, coming off his best week in recent memory — with the recalcitrant Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) agreeing to a major climate, tax and health care bill and Biden announcing the killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri in a drone strike — the president can’t seem to escape the intraparty skepticism.
Over the weekend and in subsequent interviews this week, Manchin declined to endorse Biden’s reelection.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), said publicly that he doesn’t want Biden to run again, and on Tuesday, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) said she doesn’t “believe” he will.
“Any [midterm election candidate] who’s polling is getting a poll back right now showing the president is more of a drag than Obama was in the midterms,” said Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama's presidential campaigns.
“That, I think, leads to a pile on of Democrats who are frustrated about their prospects.”
For Biden, who is still testing positive for Covid-19, she said, “In this environment, he’s just in such a tough spot."
"The poor guy can’t even get sympathy for being sick.”
Inside the White House, aides fear comments like those from Phillips and Maloney could embolden other elected leaders to join suit.
Already, they have watched as Democratic leaders spent weeks dodging questions about whether they want Biden to run.
To push back on the emerging narrative, they’ve deliberately sought out supportive voices — and highlighted the remarks of others, including Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Govs. Gavin Newsom of California and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, who have lent their encouragement to a Biden 2024 bid.
White House spokesperson Chris Meagher said Biden “is focused on delivering results for working families, building the economy from the bottom up and middle out – getting Americans back to work, making our communities safer, and cutting costs for families.”
Aides note the string of recent accomplishments they’ve scored and the testimony from other Democrats that this first term could shape up to be historically productive.
In the statement, Meagher added that “MAGA Congressional Republicans are advancing an extreme agenda: putting Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block, proposing a national ban on abortion, and oppose common sense proposals to raise the age to purchase an assault weapon.”
But privately, Biden aides and advisers also are increasingly resigned to the fact that his standing won’t meaningfully rebound before November, even with the slate of recent good news and the possibility of a major prescription drug and climate bill being passed before the election.
“The numbers are the numbers,” said one Biden confidant, who went on to immediately argue that the president’s standing going into the midterms would improve ahead of 2024.
Part of what has fed despair in the party is the inability of the White House to turn around its numbers.
Even as the price of gas has fallen dramatically and the Manchin agreement was announced, Biden’s job approval rating barely changed, ticking up two points from the previous week to 39 percent in Wednesday’s POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.
One adviser to major Democratic donors conceded that outside of Washington, “nobody gives a shit” about the Manchin legislative breakthrough.
“[The Biden administration] doesn’t understand that the only thing people care about is inflation, gas prices and the economy writ large.”
“Of course there’s no messaging, and of course they don’t have any idea what the message is,” the adviser added.
“They’re living in La La Land.”
Another senior Democratic strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect client relationships, said they had conducted extensive interviews with swing-state voters ahead of the midterms.
The conclusion from those surveyed was that Biden’s persistently weak standing had to do with voters’ fatigue, on everything from the lingering pandemic to the spate of mass shootings, which injected a higher degree of fear into peoples’ lives.
“Americans are looking for someone that will make them feel something — anything — again,” the strategist said.
But to other Democrats, Biden is a victim of a national media ecosystem trying to prove its toughness covering a Democratic presidency after four years of Donald Trump — and the White House’s inability to adapt to that reality.
“I don't think that [Biden’s] handled that as well as you would like,” said Matt Angle, a longtime Democratic consultant from Texas.
“If four things good happen in one day and one bad thing happens, the story is gonna be about the one bad thing and that may just be a product of the times that we're in."
"The negative polls create stories about negative polls, and then it all kind of builds on itself.”
A president’s public approval rating is historically closely tied to his party’s performance in the midterms, and there is almost no reason to think Biden’s numbers will improve before November.
Presidents at this point in the midterm election calendar have traditionally not mustered a late bounce.
Still, the generic congressional ballot — perhaps a better indicator of midterm performance — has been looking better for Democrats in recent weeks.
And the party on Tuesday celebrated a rare victory in Kansas, where voters in a heavily Republican state overwhelmingly rejected an anti-abortion state constitutional amendment.
The result suggested the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade could improve the party’s prospects in some swing states and suburban House districts.
There’s also an emergent, albeit minority, view among Democrats that candidates in the 2022 cycle can successfully decouple from Biden and his diminished standing with voters — and that they could do it, primarily, by running against Trump and Trumpism.
“It was always difficult for Republicans to win when they embraced MAGA."
"Once that decision was made, this election became not a typical midterm,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who is loudly challenging the conventional wisdom that the GOP will score big in the midterms.
“People continue to argue that this is a typical election and they are wrong."
"They were wrong all along.”
But even if Democrats stave off the most disastrous outcome in November — losing the Senate — it won’t be because of Biden.
Like some other Democrats, Owen suggested that if the Manchin climate and prescription drug deal passes, the unemployment rate remains low and gas drops below $4 a gallon — all credible possibilities — Democrats may escape the midterms suffering less damage than has widely been expected.
His proposed resolution, which could be amended before the DNC takes it up, does not mention 2024, but asks DNC members to express “our full and complete support” for Biden and his administration.
Democrats, he said, could even hold onto their majority in the House.
But Democrats have found reasons for optimism before and been disappointed.
Last year, it was an infrastructure package and a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill many in the party believed could turn things around, only for those wins to be eclipsed by other matters, including the pandemic and inflation.
“Everyone is looking at this reconciliation bill, and it’s something,” said Aaron Chappell, political director of the Sen. Bernie Sanders-aligned group, Our Revolution.
“But it’s late, and it’s little …"
"Should it pass?"
"Yes."
"Is it enough to deal with widespread frustrations with the president, especially with the progressive base?"
"We’ll have to see.”
The president’s unpopularity does complicate the degree to which he’s personally involved in the midterms beyond raising money.
And while a midterm drumming for Democrats would damage Biden’s standing further, previous presidents have recovered from such scenarios.
Biden — if he runs again — would almost certainly be re-nominated.
“If Joe Biden is compared with the unspoken or unidentified ideal, then sure it's easy to rag on him and find somebody else better,” Angle said.
“But the truth of the matter is that if Joe Biden runs for re-election, he's going to be seen straight up against Donald Trump, or Ron DeSantis or somebody who's very polarizing."
"They’ll have a lot of negatives, and Biden will start to look really good against them.”
Even Biden’s internal party skeptics concede as much.
One Democratic strategist critical of Biden noted that the last time a sitting Democratic president was seriously challenged was when Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) took on Jimmy Carter, “and Carter still came out on top.”
He added: “The other half of the equation is, ‘Who’s our Ted Kennedy?’"
"I don’t see a Ted Kennedy standing around.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 39cdae3a9c
"Dems move to put a cork in the Biden-should-exit-stage-right talk"
By David Siders and Christopher Cadelago
4 AUGUST 2022
With Democrats increasingly airing their doubts about Joe Biden’s presidency, one allied Democratic National Committee member decided it was time to try and plug the chatter.
William Owen of Tennessee recently drafted a resolution to put his fellow committee members on record as being supportive of the sitting president.
The DNC has approved similar measures for past presidents.
But the motivation this time was different.
Owen said he wanted to blunt the pessimism surrounding Biden that was emanating from within the party’s own ranks.
“I keep reading all of these articles about Democrats saying they don’t want him to run,” Owen said, adding that the resolution he’s proposing to take up next month will “put all the DNC folks on record saying they are supporting him.”
That a DNC member felt the need to get his colleagues on record about their party’s leader speaks to the political predicament Biden finds himself in.
Less than 100 days before the midterm elections, the president’s job approval rating has fallen below 40 percent, and polls suggest majorities of Democrats would prefer a different nominee in 2024.
Even now, coming off his best week in recent memory — with the recalcitrant Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) agreeing to a major climate, tax and health care bill and Biden announcing the killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri in a drone strike — the president can’t seem to escape the intraparty skepticism.
Over the weekend and in subsequent interviews this week, Manchin declined to endorse Biden’s reelection.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), said publicly that he doesn’t want Biden to run again, and on Tuesday, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) said she doesn’t “believe” he will.
“Any [midterm election candidate] who’s polling is getting a poll back right now showing the president is more of a drag than Obama was in the midterms,” said Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama's presidential campaigns.
“That, I think, leads to a pile on of Democrats who are frustrated about their prospects.”
For Biden, who is still testing positive for Covid-19, she said, “In this environment, he’s just in such a tough spot."
"The poor guy can’t even get sympathy for being sick.”
Inside the White House, aides fear comments like those from Phillips and Maloney could embolden other elected leaders to join suit.
Already, they have watched as Democratic leaders spent weeks dodging questions about whether they want Biden to run.
To push back on the emerging narrative, they’ve deliberately sought out supportive voices — and highlighted the remarks of others, including Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Govs. Gavin Newsom of California and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, who have lent their encouragement to a Biden 2024 bid.
White House spokesperson Chris Meagher said Biden “is focused on delivering results for working families, building the economy from the bottom up and middle out – getting Americans back to work, making our communities safer, and cutting costs for families.”
Aides note the string of recent accomplishments they’ve scored and the testimony from other Democrats that this first term could shape up to be historically productive.
In the statement, Meagher added that “MAGA Congressional Republicans are advancing an extreme agenda: putting Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block, proposing a national ban on abortion, and oppose common sense proposals to raise the age to purchase an assault weapon.”
But privately, Biden aides and advisers also are increasingly resigned to the fact that his standing won’t meaningfully rebound before November, even with the slate of recent good news and the possibility of a major prescription drug and climate bill being passed before the election.
“The numbers are the numbers,” said one Biden confidant, who went on to immediately argue that the president’s standing going into the midterms would improve ahead of 2024.
Part of what has fed despair in the party is the inability of the White House to turn around its numbers.
Even as the price of gas has fallen dramatically and the Manchin agreement was announced, Biden’s job approval rating barely changed, ticking up two points from the previous week to 39 percent in Wednesday’s POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.
One adviser to major Democratic donors conceded that outside of Washington, “nobody gives a shit” about the Manchin legislative breakthrough.
“[The Biden administration] doesn’t understand that the only thing people care about is inflation, gas prices and the economy writ large.”
“Of course there’s no messaging, and of course they don’t have any idea what the message is,” the adviser added.
“They’re living in La La Land.”
Another senior Democratic strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect client relationships, said they had conducted extensive interviews with swing-state voters ahead of the midterms.
The conclusion from those surveyed was that Biden’s persistently weak standing had to do with voters’ fatigue, on everything from the lingering pandemic to the spate of mass shootings, which injected a higher degree of fear into peoples’ lives.
“Americans are looking for someone that will make them feel something — anything — again,” the strategist said.
But to other Democrats, Biden is a victim of a national media ecosystem trying to prove its toughness covering a Democratic presidency after four years of Donald Trump — and the White House’s inability to adapt to that reality.
“I don't think that [Biden’s] handled that as well as you would like,” said Matt Angle, a longtime Democratic consultant from Texas.
“If four things good happen in one day and one bad thing happens, the story is gonna be about the one bad thing and that may just be a product of the times that we're in."
"The negative polls create stories about negative polls, and then it all kind of builds on itself.”
A president’s public approval rating is historically closely tied to his party’s performance in the midterms, and there is almost no reason to think Biden’s numbers will improve before November.
Presidents at this point in the midterm election calendar have traditionally not mustered a late bounce.
Still, the generic congressional ballot — perhaps a better indicator of midterm performance — has been looking better for Democrats in recent weeks.
And the party on Tuesday celebrated a rare victory in Kansas, where voters in a heavily Republican state overwhelmingly rejected an anti-abortion state constitutional amendment.
The result suggested the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade could improve the party’s prospects in some swing states and suburban House districts.
There’s also an emergent, albeit minority, view among Democrats that candidates in the 2022 cycle can successfully decouple from Biden and his diminished standing with voters — and that they could do it, primarily, by running against Trump and Trumpism.
“It was always difficult for Republicans to win when they embraced MAGA."
"Once that decision was made, this election became not a typical midterm,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who is loudly challenging the conventional wisdom that the GOP will score big in the midterms.
“People continue to argue that this is a typical election and they are wrong."
"They were wrong all along.”
But even if Democrats stave off the most disastrous outcome in November — losing the Senate — it won’t be because of Biden.
Like some other Democrats, Owen suggested that if the Manchin climate and prescription drug deal passes, the unemployment rate remains low and gas drops below $4 a gallon — all credible possibilities — Democrats may escape the midterms suffering less damage than has widely been expected.
His proposed resolution, which could be amended before the DNC takes it up, does not mention 2024, but asks DNC members to express “our full and complete support” for Biden and his administration.
Democrats, he said, could even hold onto their majority in the House.
But Democrats have found reasons for optimism before and been disappointed.
Last year, it was an infrastructure package and a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill many in the party believed could turn things around, only for those wins to be eclipsed by other matters, including the pandemic and inflation.
“Everyone is looking at this reconciliation bill, and it’s something,” said Aaron Chappell, political director of the Sen. Bernie Sanders-aligned group, Our Revolution.
“But it’s late, and it’s little …"
"Should it pass?"
"Yes."
"Is it enough to deal with widespread frustrations with the president, especially with the progressive base?"
"We’ll have to see.”
The president’s unpopularity does complicate the degree to which he’s personally involved in the midterms beyond raising money.
And while a midterm drumming for Democrats would damage Biden’s standing further, previous presidents have recovered from such scenarios.
Biden — if he runs again — would almost certainly be re-nominated.
“If Joe Biden is compared with the unspoken or unidentified ideal, then sure it's easy to rag on him and find somebody else better,” Angle said.
“But the truth of the matter is that if Joe Biden runs for re-election, he's going to be seen straight up against Donald Trump, or Ron DeSantis or somebody who's very polarizing."
"They’ll have a lot of negatives, and Biden will start to look really good against them.”
Even Biden’s internal party skeptics concede as much.
One Democratic strategist critical of Biden noted that the last time a sitting Democratic president was seriously challenged was when Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) took on Jimmy Carter, “and Carter still came out on top.”
He added: “The other half of the equation is, ‘Who’s our Ted Kennedy?’"
"I don’t see a Ted Kennedy standing around.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 39cdae3a9c
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
BLOOMBERG
"Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Left a Fuming White House Scrambling for a Plan"
Jenny Leonard and Billy House
3 AUGUST 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Before Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei for a controversial meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen, the White House was careful not to weigh in on the trip, stressing that the speaker of the House makes her own decisions.
But behind the scenes, officials in President Joe Biden’s administration were fuming at her insistence on using the trip as a capstone for her career at a moment of highly delicate relations with Beijing.
In an effort to quietly persuade Pelosi to delay the visit, the White House dispatched senior members of the National Security Council, as well as State Department officials, to brief the speaker and her team on the geopolitical risks, people familiar with the conversations said.
When it became clear that Pelosi could not be swayed, the administration instead planned for contingencies, setting up a scramble to ensure communication channels with Beijing were functioning and any fallout could be minimized.
That included meetings between US officials and their counterparts at the Chinese embassy in Washington, people familiar with the matter said.
They were granted anonymity to discuss the private deliberations.
But even as they tried to convince Pelosi’s team that now was not the right time to go, administration officials knew they had to plan for the possibility that she would do so and gird for any Chinese response.
The inability to persuade Pelosi to postpone adds another complication for an administration that is still figuring out its approach to China.
And it left Biden officials in the uncomfortable position of being upstaged by one of the most powerful House speakers in modern times, who has never shied away from poking China and isn’t afraid of upsetting anyone that gets in her way.
When Chinese officials in Beijing summoned the US ambassador to lodge a formal protest, Nicholas Burns reiterated the Biden administration wanted to avoid any escalation and was intent on keeping all lines of communication open, according to a State Department spokesperson.
Pelosi’s trip came as she’s expected to soon wind down her historic career as the first woman House speaker.
While she is likely to be re-elected to her San Francisco House seat, Republicans appear poised to capture the chamber’s majority and Pelosi cut a deal in 2018 with younger House members agreeing to leadership term limits.
Pelosi, 82, valued the discretion of her members about the trip and was especially displeased with leaks her team believed to come out of the Biden administration in an effort to make her cancel the visit, people familiar with the matter said.
An NSC spokeswoman said allegations that the administration purposefully leaked it are false.
NSC spokesman John Kirby on Tuesday called them “unfortunate,” noting that the speaker should be able to travel on her own terms.
Information about the visit was tightly held, kept even from lawmakers accompanying Pelosi.
They didn’t receive the complete itinerary for the trip -- including confirmation of the Taiwan stop -- until the day they left and only after the delegation had boarded the plane.
The trip initially was to occur in April, but was postponed when Pelosi tested positive for Covid-19.
Pelosi’s office continued to make clear to members who were to be on that trip that it was merely on hold.
Communications between the speaker’s team and the White House were fraught, with tension added when Biden in late July told reporters that the US military was opposed to Pelosi’s then unconfirmed travel plans.
The more the administration tried to weigh in behind the scenes, the more Pelosi dug in.
At one point, her team suggested she might consider delaying the trip if the president publicly asked her to.
Biden advisers didn’t believe that was a good idea, not least because they were unsure that she would comply, people familiar with the exchange said.
After days of treating the travel plans as a hypothetical, on Monday, White House officials changed their tone.
Before Pelosi landed in the region, Kirby warned Beijing not to overreact to a potential Taiwan stop or use it as a pretext to increase tensions.
On Tuesday, when she landed and China issued threats of military drills around the island, Kirby repeated his warnings and said the US was prepared to manage whatever Beijing chooses to do in response.
The White House declined to say whether the president personally supported the speaker’s trip and whether he believes it benefits US foreign policy objectives.
Biden this year said he would support military intervention if China invaded Taiwan -- a comment that was quickly walked back and clarified by his advisers.
People familiar with the internal deliberations, however, said the president was probably speaking his mind then, while stressing that it would have no impact on the longstanding One China Policy.
Steely Resolve
US officials have spent the past 19 months carefully trying to recalibrate the relationship with China away from the unpredictability of the Trump administration.
They’ve emphasized the need for clear communications to avoid unintended consequences or a misunderstanding that could lead to conflict.
In her less than 24 hours on the ground, Pelosi also met with human rights and business leaders.
Her message, she said, was unwavering support for Taiwan in the face of Beijing’s threats.
The trip was consistent with her political brand, which she has built on her steely resolve to stand up to bullies.
Throughout her career, she’s taken a tougher stance on China than virtually any of the US presidents she’s dealt with.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/p ... 39cdae3a9c
"Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Left a Fuming White House Scrambling for a Plan"
Jenny Leonard and Billy House
3 AUGUST 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Before Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei for a controversial meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen, the White House was careful not to weigh in on the trip, stressing that the speaker of the House makes her own decisions.
But behind the scenes, officials in President Joe Biden’s administration were fuming at her insistence on using the trip as a capstone for her career at a moment of highly delicate relations with Beijing.
In an effort to quietly persuade Pelosi to delay the visit, the White House dispatched senior members of the National Security Council, as well as State Department officials, to brief the speaker and her team on the geopolitical risks, people familiar with the conversations said.
When it became clear that Pelosi could not be swayed, the administration instead planned for contingencies, setting up a scramble to ensure communication channels with Beijing were functioning and any fallout could be minimized.
That included meetings between US officials and their counterparts at the Chinese embassy in Washington, people familiar with the matter said.
They were granted anonymity to discuss the private deliberations.
But even as they tried to convince Pelosi’s team that now was not the right time to go, administration officials knew they had to plan for the possibility that she would do so and gird for any Chinese response.
The inability to persuade Pelosi to postpone adds another complication for an administration that is still figuring out its approach to China.
And it left Biden officials in the uncomfortable position of being upstaged by one of the most powerful House speakers in modern times, who has never shied away from poking China and isn’t afraid of upsetting anyone that gets in her way.
When Chinese officials in Beijing summoned the US ambassador to lodge a formal protest, Nicholas Burns reiterated the Biden administration wanted to avoid any escalation and was intent on keeping all lines of communication open, according to a State Department spokesperson.
Pelosi’s trip came as she’s expected to soon wind down her historic career as the first woman House speaker.
While she is likely to be re-elected to her San Francisco House seat, Republicans appear poised to capture the chamber’s majority and Pelosi cut a deal in 2018 with younger House members agreeing to leadership term limits.
Pelosi, 82, valued the discretion of her members about the trip and was especially displeased with leaks her team believed to come out of the Biden administration in an effort to make her cancel the visit, people familiar with the matter said.
An NSC spokeswoman said allegations that the administration purposefully leaked it are false.
NSC spokesman John Kirby on Tuesday called them “unfortunate,” noting that the speaker should be able to travel on her own terms.
Information about the visit was tightly held, kept even from lawmakers accompanying Pelosi.
They didn’t receive the complete itinerary for the trip -- including confirmation of the Taiwan stop -- until the day they left and only after the delegation had boarded the plane.
The trip initially was to occur in April, but was postponed when Pelosi tested positive for Covid-19.
Pelosi’s office continued to make clear to members who were to be on that trip that it was merely on hold.
Communications between the speaker’s team and the White House were fraught, with tension added when Biden in late July told reporters that the US military was opposed to Pelosi’s then unconfirmed travel plans.
The more the administration tried to weigh in behind the scenes, the more Pelosi dug in.
At one point, her team suggested she might consider delaying the trip if the president publicly asked her to.
Biden advisers didn’t believe that was a good idea, not least because they were unsure that she would comply, people familiar with the exchange said.
After days of treating the travel plans as a hypothetical, on Monday, White House officials changed their tone.
Before Pelosi landed in the region, Kirby warned Beijing not to overreact to a potential Taiwan stop or use it as a pretext to increase tensions.
On Tuesday, when she landed and China issued threats of military drills around the island, Kirby repeated his warnings and said the US was prepared to manage whatever Beijing chooses to do in response.
The White House declined to say whether the president personally supported the speaker’s trip and whether he believes it benefits US foreign policy objectives.
Biden this year said he would support military intervention if China invaded Taiwan -- a comment that was quickly walked back and clarified by his advisers.
People familiar with the internal deliberations, however, said the president was probably speaking his mind then, while stressing that it would have no impact on the longstanding One China Policy.
Steely Resolve
US officials have spent the past 19 months carefully trying to recalibrate the relationship with China away from the unpredictability of the Trump administration.
They’ve emphasized the need for clear communications to avoid unintended consequences or a misunderstanding that could lead to conflict.
In her less than 24 hours on the ground, Pelosi also met with human rights and business leaders.
Her message, she said, was unwavering support for Taiwan in the face of Beijing’s threats.
The trip was consistent with her political brand, which she has built on her steely resolve to stand up to bullies.
Throughout her career, she’s taken a tougher stance on China than virtually any of the US presidents she’s dealt with.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/p ... 39cdae3a9c