BUSINESS INSIDER
"Rising tensions between 2 of NATO's biggest militaries are driving fears of the first war between alliance members"
insider@insider.com (Constantine Atlamazoglou)
2 NOVEMBER 2022
* Greece and Turkey have two of NATO's largest militaries and are in an important corner of Europe.
* They also have longstanding disputes that continue to roil their relationship and affect the alliance.
* Their tensions have escalated in recent years, stoking new fears about the first war within NATO.
Greece and Turkey are two of NATO's oldest members, joining together in 1952, but their relationship and the tensions between them predate the alliance, and membership has done little to ease their disputes.
In recent years, ties between Athens and Ankara have deteriorated to the point that some believe a war could break out between them.
The countries occupy strategically important territory in southeastern Europe, and they field two of NATO's biggest militaries, making the stakes of a potential clash much higher.
Due to persistent tensions with Turkey, Greece has been one of the few NATO members to maintain defense expenditures above the alliance's 2%-of-GDP goal.
Greece's defense spending in 2022 was the highest in the alliance as a share of GDP.
Although much of Greece's defense spending has traditionally gone to personnel costs, significant equipment purchases under its current administration, which took office in July 2019, have also made it one of the alliance's biggest spenders on hardware.
(NATO also calls for 20% of members' defense spending to go toward equipment purchases and upgrades.)
Greece is placing a strong emphasis on its air force and naval fleet in particular.
Since 2020, it has purchased 24 French-made Rafale jets, 4.5-generation multirole fighters that are considered very capable and technologically superior to any Turkish aircraft.
Athens is also upgrading 84 of its F-16s to the latest Viper configuration and has applied to join the F-35 program.
Greece plans to buy seven MH-60R anti-submarine warfare helicopters, and it has installed a version of Israel's Iron Dome over its eastern Aegean islands.
The system is tailored to counter Turkey's large drone fleet.
On the naval front, Greece has purchased three FDI HN frigates from France with the option for a fourth one.
It is also in the final stages of selecting four more corvettes for its already sizable navy.
Greece maintains the largest tank force among NATO's European members — although a portion are older models — and has one of the biggest artillery forces in the continent.
Turkey, on the other hand, has the second-largest military and the second-largest tank and artillery force in NATO, after the US.
The Turkish air force is comparable to Greece's, but it is falling behind due to Ankara's expulsion from the F-35 program, a US hold on Turkey's request for F-16 upgrades, and the dismissal of hundreds of Turkish pilots following a 2016 coup attempt.
Yet, Turkey's drone industry and the aircraft it produces are among the best in NATO.
Turkish-made TB-2 Bayraktar drones have received significant attention for their role in the war in Ukraine.
Turkey also has one of NATO's biggest navies, with a considerable number of combat ships and a large landing fleet.
Ankara plans to strengthen its fleet with at least four and as many as seven anti-aircraft warfare frigates that will replace older ships.
The Turkish navy is also awaiting delivery of six German-made Type 214 submarines, which could tilt the naval balance in the Aegean, as Greece has four Type 214 subs.
Turkey's defense spending is significantly less than Greece's, in percentage terms, but Turkey benefits from having a larger economy and is planning annual defense spending increases through 2024.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently announced an extra $26 billion in defense spending for 2023.
This concentration of firepower would make any conflict deadlier, and a local crisis could quickly escalate.
Greek military's chief of staff, Gen. Konstantinos Floros, said in 2020 that "no crisis" would be "geographically isolated," a reversal of Greece's past policy.
Many issues, little sympathy
Greek and Turkey have come very close to war in the recent past.
They clashed during Turkey's 1974 invasion of Cyprus, and a conflict was narrowly averted during the Imia crisis in 1996.
In 2020, Greek and Turkish frigates collided during a standoff in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Both countries have lost jets and pilots in encounters over the eastern Aegean, and each side regularly accuses the other of flying over their territory in the area.
Their disputes include divided Cyprus and the weaponization of migrants, but much of their tension centers on the islands in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean seas.
Greece, citing the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, argues that its hundreds of Aegean islands give it rights to territorial sea and exclusive economic zone.
Turkey has not signed UNCLOS and argues that islands do not have the same territorial rights as mainland.
Turkey's parliament has authorized a declaration of war if Greece extends its territorial waters in the Aegean from its current 6 nautical miles up to the 12 miles allowed by UNCLOS.
Turkey also demands that Greece demilitarize its eastern Aegean islands, arguing that Athens has breached treaty limits on what military equipment can be deployed to them.
Athens says the hardware is for defensive purposes.
The island dispute has escalated in recent months.
Erdogan said in September that Greece is "occupying" the islands and that "we will do what's necessary" when the time comes.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said days later that war would never happen but that if Ankara did attack it "would receive an absolutely devastating response."
The rhetoric is widely seen in Turkey as politically motivated: Erdogan and Mitsotakis both face elections next summer.
Observers say NATO is able to manage the tension as it has in the past, but the ill-will between two of the alliance's most important members looks likely to continue.
(The EU and the US support Greece on the islands issue, which Turkey views as favoritism.)
Political dialogue is largely frozen, but the countries' defense ministers met during a NATO summit on October 14 in an attempt to deescalate the situation.
Afterward, Turkey's defense minister said it was "important that the dispute" is "resolved without the interference of third parties."
Greece's defense minister said that "as long as there is a threat of territorial sovereignty, it renders futile any attempt at communication."
Constantine Atlamazoglou works on transatlantic and European security. He holds a master's degree in security studies and European affairs from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. You can contact him on LinkedIn.
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