THE ECONOMY

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CNBC

"10-year Treasury yield tops 1.68% as investors digest jobless claims report"


Vicky McKeever @VMCKEEVERCNBC

PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 22 2021

KEY POINTS

* Markit is set to release its October flash purchasing managers’ index at 9:45 a.m. ET on Friday.

* There are no auctions scheduled to be held on Friday.


The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 1.68% early on Friday, after the latest weekly jobless claims report came in lower than expected in the previous session.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 3.9 basis points to 1.636% at 4:40 p.m. ET.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 5.9 basis points to 2.069%.

Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.

The Labor Department reported that 290,000 jobless claims were filed during the week ended Oct. 16, versus a Dow Jones estimate of 300,000 claims.

Employment data is one economic indicator being monitored by the Federal Reserve to help it decide when it should start pulling back emergency stimulus measures.

In minutes released last week, Fed officials indicated that the central bank was nearing its economic goals and would soon start to normalize its monetary policy, starting with the winding down of its bond buying program.

Raising interest rates is another part of this normalization.

Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic told CNBC on Thursday that he sees an interest rate hike coming in the “late third, maybe early fourth” quarter of 2022, as inflation persists.

Paul Gambles, co-founder and managing director at MBMG Group, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday that he thought that there was a “huge misunderstanding, particularly by policymakers, as to what’s really happening out there” in terms of supply chain issues and inflation.

“There’s no indication of genuine demand-driven inflation, this is all still a protracted supply shock,” he said.

Referring to Bostic’s comments, Gambles said that if the Fed was “determined to tighten” monetary policy that would be “disastrous for capital markets” because central bank stimulus was the main thing supporting capital markets.


— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this market report.

Data also provided by Reuters

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/us-bond ... -data.html
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REUTERS

"U.S. budget deficit in September smallest since January 2020, Treasury says"


By Reuters Staff

OCTOBER 22, 2021

(Reuters) - The U.S. federal budget deficit shrank in September to $62 billion from $125 billion in the year-earlier period and was the smallest budget gap since January 2020.

Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Paul Simao

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-eco ... SW1N2PU057
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REUTERS

"Time for Fed to taper bond purchases but not to raise rates, Powell says"


By Lindsay Dunsmuir, Ann Saphir

OCTOBER 22, 2021

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the U.S. central bank should start the process of reducing its support of the economy by cutting back on its asset purchases, but should not yet touch the interest rate dial.

“I do think it’s time to taper; I don’t think it’s time to raise rates,” Powell said in a virtual appearance before a conference, noting that there are still five million fewer U.S. jobs now than there were before the coronavirus pandemic.

He also reiterated his view that high inflation will likely abate next year as pressures from the pandemic fade.

“We think we can be patient and allow the labor market to heal,” he said.

The Fed has promised to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate at the current near-zero level until the economy has returned to full employment and inflation has reached the central bank’s 2% goal and is on track to stay moderately above that level for some time.

It’s “very possible” the Fed’s full employment goal could be met next year, Powell said on Friday, if supply-chain constraints ease as expected and the service sector opens more fully, allowing job growth to speed back up.

Job gains slowed sharply in August and September as COVID-19 cases surged.

Still, it’s not a certainty, and if inflation - already higher and lasting longer than initially expected - moves persistently upward, the Fed would “certainly” act, he said.

“Our policy is well positioned to manage a range of plausible outcomes,” Powell added.

“We need to watch, and watch carefully, and see if the economy is evolving consistent with our expectations, and adapt policy accordingly.”

The remarks appeared to open the door to a possibility the Fed dreads: needing to raise interest rates to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control and, by doing so, cutting short the jobs recovery.

Powell said he doesn’t see that as the current situation, but he does see a growing tension between the Fed’s two mandates of full employment and stable prices.

“The risks are clearly now to longer and more persistent bottlenecks and, thus, to higher inflation,” he said.

For now, the Fed needs to “look through” that high inflation, despite the pain it means for households having to pay more for gas and food, in order to give time for the economy to work out supply kinks.

HIGHER RATES COMING

The Fed has signaled it will likely begin next month to taper its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

About half of Fed policymakers believe a rate hike will need to follow in 2022, with a few suggesting it may have to come by the summer.

The other half of U.S. rate-setters see rate hikes as not appropriate until 2023, and one of them - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari - is holding out for 2024.

But recent data appears to be falling in line with the views of those pushing for earlier hikes in borrowing costs.

Consumer prices have been rising at more than twice the Fed’s target.

And, Powell noted, “supply constraints and elevated inflation are likely to last longer than previously expected and well into next year, and the same is true for pressure on wages.”

Still, he said, the most likely case is for inflation pressures to abate and job growth to resume its pace from this past summer.

For now, the Fed will watch and wait, Powell said.

Reporting by Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Jonnelle Marte; Editing by Paul Simao

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed ... SL1N2RI1MV
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REUTERS

"Fed's Daly: standing pat is right course for monetary policy now"


By Ann Saphir

OCTOBER 22, 2021

(Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Friday that recent ‘eye-popping’ inflation readings are driven by supply chain breakdowns and will subside as COVID does, and the Fed’s decision not to raise rates in response is the right one.

“Just because we are standing pat, being patient, is not the same as being asleep,” Daly said.

Raising rates now would not solve the global supply-chain issues but could start to bridle growth next year just as inflation pressures are receding and cost the economy both output and jobs, she said.

Reporting by Ann Saphir

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed ... SL1N2RI1J4
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REUTERS

"U.S. consumer confidence rebounds; house price growth likely peaked"


By Lucia Mutikani

October 26, 2021

Summary

* Consumer confidence index gains 4 pts to 113.8 in October

* Plans to buy homes, autos and major appliances rise

* New home sales surge 14% in September

* House price growth slows in August


WASHINGTON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in October as concerns about high inflation were offset by improving labor market prospects, suggesting economic growth was picking up after a turbulent third quarter.

The survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumers eager to buy a home and big-ticket items such as motor vehicles and major household appliances over the next six months.

The share of Americans planning to go on vacation was the largest since February 2020, just before the nation was slammed by the first wave of COVID-19 infections.

A resurgence in coronavirus cases over the summer, driven by the Delta variant, and supply-chain constraints related to the pandemic restrained economic activity last quarter.

"Consumers are more upbeat after a rocky third quarter and this argues for a strong finish for the economy in 2021," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

"Consumers know the tight labor market has their backs."

"Those forecasting a recession from the drop in the confidence late in the summer will have to back off that call."

The consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 113.8 this month from 109.8 in September, ending three straight monthly declines.

The measure, which places more emphasis on the labor market, remains below its peak of 128.9 in June.

The rise contrasted with the University of Michigan's survey of consumers, which showed sentiment falling early this month.

The rebound in confidence coincided with an ebb in coronavirus infections.

Consumers were upbeat about both current conditions and the short-term outlook.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that the index would dip to 108.3.

The Conference Board's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, raced to a reading of 45 this month, the highest in 21 years, from 43.5 in September.

This measure closely correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department's closely watched employment report.

Combined with declining new claims for unemployment benefits, it raises hopes that job gains picked up this month after employers hired the fewest workers in nine months in September.

Slower job growth has been blamed on pandemic-related labor shortages.

There were 10.4 million job openings at the end of August.

"This is another sign that job growth reaccelerated in October," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

"It points toward a decline in the unemployment rate in October."

Stocks on Wall Street were trading mostly higher.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.

U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.

HITTING THE ROAD

Consumers' inflation expectations over the next 12 months jumped to 7.0%, the highest in 13 years, from 6.5% last month.

Despite perceptions of high inflation, consumers planned to step up spending.

Buying intentions for motor vehicles rebounded from a nine-month low.

More consumers intended to purchase household appliances like washing machines, television sets and refrigerators over the next six months.

Some economists speculated that higher prices were forcing consumers to bring forward purchases to avoid paying even more for goods.

The rebound suggested consumer spending would regain steam after an apparent sharp deceleration last quarter.

Economists believe the government's snapshot of third-quarter gross domestic product growth on Thursday will likely show that consumer spending stalled last quarter after growing at a robust 12% annualized rate in the April-June period.

With spending weak, third-quarter GDP growth estimates are mostly below a 3% rate.

The economy grew at a 6.7% pace in the second quarter.

The anticipated slowdown would reflect widespread shortages, including for goods such as motor vehicles and some household appliances, as well as the Delta variant's hit to spending on services like air travel and hotel accommodation.

"Slower growth doesn't imply a weak economy," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics in Holland, Pennsylvania.

"There is nothing soft about it, at least when it comes to demand."

Consumer spending this quarter is also likely to be boosted by increased demand for travel.

The percentage of consumers saying they plan to take a vacation in the next six months increased to 47.6%.

That was the highest figure since the pandemic started and was up from 42.3% in September.

They mostly planned trips in the United States and intended to either drive or fly to their destinations.

There was good news on the housing market.

In a separate report on Tuesday, the Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes surged 14.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000 units in September.

The Conference Board survey showed consumers more inclined to buying a home over the next six months.

The housing market could get a lift from a moderation in house price inflation.

A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller's 20 metropolitan area home price index rose 19.7% on a year-on-year basis after a record 20% jump in July.

Signs that house price growth has peaked were evident in a fourth report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency that showed house prices rose 18.5% in the 12 months through August after surging by a record 19.2% in July.

"The slowing acceleration in home prices suggests that buyer fatigue is setting in, particularly among higher-priced homes where the acceleration in price growth from the previous month has been larger compared to low-tier homes," said Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-con ... 021-10-26/
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REUTERS

"Biden to name 'slate' to Fed, emphasis on workers - Senator Brown says"


Reuters

October 26, 2021

Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden will probably advance a "whole slate" of nominees to the Federal Reserve Board, which may or may not include current chair Jerome Powell and will ensure a greater emphasis on workers, Senator Sherrod Brown said on Tuesday.

In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Brown, the head of the Senate banking committee, said he had spoken with Biden "just the other day" about the makeup of the Federal Reserve board.

The president understood that workers should be at the center of economic policy, which "includes making the Fed look more like America but think more like America too," said Brown, adding that he gets along well with Powell but the decision on Powell's renomination is Biden's.

The Senate banking committee oversees the Fed and must sign off on Fed nominees before they can be considered for approval by the Senate as a whole.


Powell's term as Fed chair expires in February; the seven-member Fed Board also has one vacant seat and at least one and potentially two other seats that will open up in coming months.

"When the president looks for making up to four nominations - maybe including Powell, maybe not - there will be a much great emphasis on workers," Brown told Bloomberg TV.

The White House has not chosen any fixed timetable for Biden to make a decision on Fed personnel, a process delayed by congressional negotiations over his signature economic revival package.

"We know there are going to be vacancies on the Fed Board of Governors - we need a full board of governors at the Fed," a spokesperson for Brown said.

Despite a time crunch to seal that deal, administration officials have been discussing their options for Fed appointments in recent weeks, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The question of who should run the Fed comes at a critical moment for the U.S. economy.

Central bankers have signaled they will begin reducing their support for the economy next month by cutting back what is currently $120 billion in monthly asset purchases down to nothing by the middle of next year.

Policymakers are divided on how soon after that they will need to start putting the brakes on economic growth with interest rate hikes, with much depending on whether currently high inflation has begun to subside as many expect, as well as who is on the rate-setting committee by that time.

Two of the most hawkish of the Fed's 12 bank presidents, who along with the Fed Board decide on monetary policy, resigned last month amid an outcry over their securities trading.

In response, Powell tightened restrictions on policymakers' investing, although some critics see the scandal as one more reason to pick someone else to run the Fed.

Some progressives favor current Fed Governor Lael Brainard to take over.

Others who support keeping Powell in his current role say Brainard could make her mark on both climate and regulation if she takes over as the Fed's regulation czar, a slot that opened up earlier this month after Randal Quarles' term expired.

"That position is really really really important," Brown said of the vice chair for supervision role, adding that he's spoken with Biden about "a couple" of people he would support for the job.

Brown said that though Powell has "done some things that I think are too supportive of Wall Street when it comes to deregulation, and he is not engaged enough on climate," he has done a "reasonably good job on monetary policy."

Brown's remarks contrasted sharply with those of Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is also on the banking committee and has said she will oppose Powell's renomination, citing what she sees as his weak record on regulation.

On the weekend Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended Powell's regulatory record, though she declined to say what advice she was giving Powell on the issue.

Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Richard Pullin

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden- ... 021-10-26/
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REUTERS

"White House says Biden supports billionaire tax"


By Reuters Staff

OCTOBER 27, 2021

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden supports imposing a new “billionaire tax” and the White House believes the Democratic proposal would be legal, spokesperson Jen Psaki said on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason and Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Chris Reese)

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bid ... SL1N2RN2EE
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REUTERS

"U.S. companies to keep prices high as supply chain headaches persist"


Reuters

October 27, 2021

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The largest U.S. manufacturers including General Motors, General Electric, 3M and Boeing face logistics headaches and higher costs due to global supply bottlenecks that are likely to persist into next year but agreed the hit to profits can be mitigated by charging higher prices for their goods.

Companies across the globe sounded the alarm on supply issues months ago that have pushed prices higher on raw materials from chemicals to steel.

In earnings reports this week investors got a closer look at how companies are managing.

"It starts with really strong price," said GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra in a call with reporters.

"We were able to do very well (with) full-size trucks and full-size SUVs."

"We just can't build enough of those vehicles."

GM is also looking to wring efficiencies from its supply chain and she said the chip shortage is likely to improve in the second half of 2022.

Larry Culp, the chief executive of General Electric Co, a maker of jet engines and wind turbines, told investors keeping up with fits and starts in the global supply chain was akin to playing a carnival game that aims to keep players on their toes.

"I'm not sure we're yet at a place where we would say that things are stable," Culp told investors on an earnings call on Tuesday.

"It really is akin to playing a whack-a-mole."

General Electric also expects supply constraints to persist through the rest of the year and in 2022, hurting profit in its healthcare business.

Boeing Co also complained of a "severely weakened supply chain."

The pandemic has crippled many companies' ability to send and receive the parts and supplies needed to make a wide range of products, creating shortages, reducing inventories and hammering profits.

On Wednesday, Harley-Davidson said it increased surcharge pricing in the United States to offset higher raw material costs.

The motorcycle maker expects these costs to remain high and is exploring higher surcharge costs globally.

Harley-Davidson said the inventory shortage is also squeezing its international market share.

McDonald's Corp also said it had to raise prices in the United States.

Industrial giant 3M Co cut its full-year earnings outlook on Tuesday and said it would increase product prices to combat inflationary and supply chain pressures.

The company, which makes a long list of building and construction products, said it was facing higher costs related to polypropylene, ethylene, resins and labor.

It added that the global semiconductor crunch would continue to weigh on its automotive and electronics end-markets.

On Tuesday, Lockheed Martin Corp dramatically lowered its sales expectations for this year, saying the pandemic has hobbled the top U.S. defense contractor's supply chain.

Its shares fell more than 11% on Tuesday.

Lockheed's chief financial officer said the problem worsened for them over the last two months, as the maker of the F-35 fighter jet lowered its 2021 revenue expectations by 2.5% to $67 billion and said next year's revenue could fall to $66 billion.

Reporting by Reuters staff; Writing by Bernard Orr; Editing by Andrea Ricci

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-com ... 021-10-27/
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REUTERS

"Companies to U.S. shipping regulator: enough probes, start enforcing"


Reuters

October 27, 2021

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A U.S. trade group representing companies selling luggage, backpacks and other travel products has written President Joe Biden asking that regulations on shipping and other fees be strictly enforced to help bring down the cost of shipping.

The Travel Goods Association, whose companies do some $1 billion in U.S. sales annually, asked for "immediate action – aggressive enforcement, leadership to bring the full gamut (of) stakeholders to the table, provide immediate relief, and more."


They said shipping costs are now eight to 10 times higher than what they paid last fall and that they "are now witnessing rates that exceed the value of product being shipped within the container."

The group said that contracts are sometimes ignored so that goods are left behind and that they also hit delays in getting into U.S. ports, and are being charged for the delays.

While the group did not blame the problems on the COVID-19 pandemic, the crisis has caused unprecedented bottlenecks in the supply chain which economists and businesses expect to persist through the first half of 2022.

The association demanded action from the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), noting investigations that have already taken place.

"Aggressive enforcement of existing rules and regulations is essential," the group said.

"The FMC has conducted numerous inquiries on excessive and unjust fees and on unreasonable policies and practices."

"Those inquiries must now turn into enforcement actions to bring the scourge of excessive fees and unreasonable carrier practices to an end," it said.

Reporting by Diane Bartz; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall

https://www.reuters.com/business/compan ... 021-10-27/
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CNBC

"Economic growth rate slows to 2% on a sharp slowdown in consumer spending"


Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

PUBLISHED THU, OCT 28 2021

KEY POINTS

* The U.S. economy grew at a 2% annualized pace in the third quarter, its slowest increase since the end of the 2020 recession.

* Decelerations in consumer spending and residential investment helped keep the number lower.

* Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week to a fresh pandemic-era low of 281,000, below the 289,000 estimate.


The U.S. economy grew at a 2% rate in the third quarter, its slowest gain of the pandemic-era recovery, as supply chain issues and a marked deceleration in consumer spending stunted the expansion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a sum of all the goods and services produced, grew at a 2.0% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the department’s first estimate released Thursday.


Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 2.8% reading.

That marked the slowest GDP gain since the 31.2% plunge in the second quarter of 2020, which encompassed the period during which Covid-19 morphed into a global pandemic that resulted in a severe economic shutdown that sent tens of millions to the unemployment lines and put a chokehold on activity across the country.

Declines in residential fixed investment and federal government spending helped hold back gains, as did a surge in the U.S. trade deficit, which widened to a near-record $73.3 billion in August.

The drops mostly offset increases in private inventory investment, a meager gain in personal consumption, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment.

Consumer spending, which makes up 69% of the $23.2 trillion U.S. economy, increased at just a 1.6% pace for the most recent period, after rising 12% in the second quarter.

Spending for goods tumbled 9.2%, spurred by a 26.2% plunge in expenditures on longer-lasting goods like appliances and autos, while services spending increased 7.9%, a reduction from the 11.5% pace in Q2.

The downshift came amid a 0.7% decline in disposable personal income, which fell 25.7% in Q2 amid the end of government stimulus payments.

The personal saving rate declined to 8.9% from 10.5%.


Federal government spending fell by 4.7%, which the Commerce Department said was due to a halt in services and processing for the Paycheck Protection Program, a pandemic-era initiative aimed at providing bridge funding to businesses impacted by the shutdown.

“Overall, this is a big disappointment given that the consensus expectation at the start of the quarter in July was for a 7.0% gain and even our own bearish 3.5% forecast proved to be too optimistic,” wrote Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

“We expect something of a rebound in the final quarter of this year — if only because motor vehicles won’t be such a drag and any negative impact from Delta should be reversed.”

In a separate economic report, jobless claims totaled 281,000 for the week ended Oct. 23, another pandemic-era low and better than the 289,000 estimate.

The total marked a decrease from the previous week’s 291,000.

Continuing claims fell by 237,000 to 2.24 million, and those receiving benefits under all programs dropped by 448,386 to 2.83 million.

Stock market futures remained higher after the report while government bond yields also climbed.

The July-to-September period saw a major clogging of the nation’s supply chain, which in turn dampened a recovery that began in April 2020 following the shortest but steepest recession in U.S. history.

Shortages in labor and soaring demand for goods over services contributed to the bottleneck, which is not expected to ease until after the holiday season.

Despite the Q3 weakness, economists largely expect the U.S. to bounce back in the fourth quarter and continue growth into 2022.

Another significant factor for the Q3 number was the summertime rise of the Covid delta variant, a situation that has reversed itself in much of the country.

Consumer activity, particularly in the vital services part of the economy, appears to have picked up and could fuel a late-year growth burst.

“As Delta cases continue to subside, there may be more growth in the fourth-quarter as consumers will be more willing to spend on services involving in-person interactions,” said Dawit Kebede, senior economist at the Credit Union National Association.

“The supply chain challenges, however, will likely continue until next year making it difficult to satisfy increased consumer demand.”

Companies during the current earnings season have noted the issues with supply chains, but many say customers are willing to pay higher prices.

That in turn has helped fuel inflation, which is running close to its 30-year high and also is expected by most economists and Federal Reserve policymakers to cool next year.


Thursday’s data indicated that at least the pace of the inflation rise had taken a step back.

Core personal consumption expenditures, which exclude food and energy and are the preferred gauge by which the Fed measures inflation, rose 4.5%, a deceleration from the second quarter’s 6.1% increase but still well above the pre-Covid pace.

The headline PCE price index increased 5.3% in Q3, down from 6.5% in the previous period.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-gros ... imate.html
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