CNBC
"Jobless claims jump to 286,000, the highest level since October"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED THU, JAN 20 2022
KEY POINTS
* Initial jobless claims totaled 286,000 for the week ended Jan. 15, well above the 225,000 estimate.
* Continuing claims also rose, jumping to 1.64 million.
* The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was higher than expected, though the future prices paid index, an inflation gauge, hit its highest level since August 1988.
Jobless claims took an unexpected turn higher last week in a potential sign that the wintertime omicron surge was hitting the employment picture.
Initial filings for the week ended Jan. 15 totaled 286,000, well above the Dow Jones estimate of 225,000 and a substantial gain from the previous week’s 231,000.
The total was the highest since the week of Oct. 16, 2021, and marks a reversal after claims just a few weeks ago hit their lowest level in more than 50 years.
“Omicron has put a wrench in where we stand on the labor market front, but with hiring challenges, employers are likely trying to hold onto their workforce,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade.
“So this could be a short-term surge in jobless claims.”
Continuing claims, which run a week behind the headline data, also shot up, rising 84,000 to 1.64 million.
One bright spot in the data showed that the four-week moving average for continuing claims, which irons out weekly volatility, declined by 55,250 to 1.664 million, the lowest since the week ended April 27, 2019.
California showed a sharp 6,075 jump in claims, while New York reported a slide of 14,011, according to unadjusted data.
Total recipients of all unemployment compensation programs rose by 180,114 to 2.13 million, according to data through Jan. 1.
Jobless claims are seen as a leading real-time gauge of the employment picture, which has brightened in some respects but is still beset by multiple trouble spots.
The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9% after a record year of nonfarm payrolls growth.
Still, the total employment level remains 2.9 million below where it was in February 2020, just before the pandemic declaration.
Labor force participation remains well below pre-pandemic levels, with the current 61.9% rate 1.5 percentage points below the pre-Covid level.
The labor force has contracted by nearly 2.3 million during the period.
A separate economic report Thursday morning showed that manufacturing activity expanded faster than expected in the Philadelphia area.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s outlook survey registered a reading of 23.2, a measure of the percentage point difference between companies reporting expansion versus contraction.
The estimate had been for 18.5.
Just 16% of the companies surveyed said they expect decreases in activity, with gains coming in new orders and future shipments.
The future employment index stumbled 19 points to 38.4, but that still reflects expectations of employment growth.
Inflation, however, remains an issue.
The future prices paid index surged 23 points to 76.4, its highest level since August 1988.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/jobless ... tober.html
THE DAILY NEWS
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Georgia prosecutor requests special grand jury in Trump election probe"
By Rami Ayyub and Alexandra Ulmer
January 20, 2022
Jan 20 (Reuters) - The prosecutor for Georgia's biggest county on Thursday requested a special grand jury with subpoena power to aid her investigation into then-President Donald Trump's efforts to influence the U.S. state's 2020 election results.
In a letter to Fulton County's chief judge, first reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, District Attorney Fani Willis wrote that multiple witnesses being probed have refused to cooperate absent a subpoena requiring their testimony.
"Therefore, I am hereby requesting ... that a special purpose grand jury be impaneled for the purpose of investigating the facts and circumstances relating directly or indirectly to possible attempts to disrupt the lawful administration of the 2020 elections in the State of Georgia," Willis wrote.
The investigation by Willis, a Democrat, is the most serious probe facing Trump in Georgia after he was recorded in a phone call pressuring Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn the state's election results based on unfounded claims of voter fraud.
Willis specifically mentioned that Raffensperger, whom she described as an "essential witness," had indicated he would only take part in an interview once presented with a subpoena.
In a statement, Trump defended what he called his "perfect" phone call and repeated false allegations of voter fraud in the 2020 election.
In a separate legal woe for the Trump family, the U.S. House of Representatives' panel investigating the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol on Thursday requested an interview with Trump's daughter and former White House aide Ivanka Trump.
And earlier this week, New York state's attorney general accused Trump's family business of repeatedly misrepresenting the value of its assets to obtain financial benefits, citing what it said was significant new evidence of possible fraud.
Trump critics hope that his legal problems may ultimately stymie a potential presidential run in 2024.
"It begins," Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island tweeted after news of the Georgia request.
'FINDING' VOTES
In her letter, Willis said a special grand jury, which can subpoena witnesses, was needed because jurors can be impaneled for longer periods and focus exclusively on a single probe.
A spokesperson for the superior courts in Fulton County, which encompasses most of the state capital Atlanta, said there was no immediate timeline for a response to Willis' request.
During the Jan. 2, 2021 call, Trump urged Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, to "find" enough votes to overturn his Georgia loss to Democrat Joe Biden.
The transcript quotes Trump telling Raffensperger: "I just want to find 11,780 votes," which is the number Trump needed to win Georgia.
Legal experts have said Trump's phone calls may have violated at least three state election laws: conspiracy to commit election fraud, criminal solicitation to commit election fraud and intentional interference with performance of election duties.
The possible felony and misdemeanor violations are punishable by fines or imprisonment.
Reporting by Rami Ayyub and Alexandra Ulmer; Editing by Bill Berkrot, Jonathan Oatis and Cynthia Osterman.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/georgi ... 022-01-20/
"Georgia prosecutor requests special grand jury in Trump election probe"
By Rami Ayyub and Alexandra Ulmer
January 20, 2022
Jan 20 (Reuters) - The prosecutor for Georgia's biggest county on Thursday requested a special grand jury with subpoena power to aid her investigation into then-President Donald Trump's efforts to influence the U.S. state's 2020 election results.
In a letter to Fulton County's chief judge, first reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, District Attorney Fani Willis wrote that multiple witnesses being probed have refused to cooperate absent a subpoena requiring their testimony.
"Therefore, I am hereby requesting ... that a special purpose grand jury be impaneled for the purpose of investigating the facts and circumstances relating directly or indirectly to possible attempts to disrupt the lawful administration of the 2020 elections in the State of Georgia," Willis wrote.
The investigation by Willis, a Democrat, is the most serious probe facing Trump in Georgia after he was recorded in a phone call pressuring Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn the state's election results based on unfounded claims of voter fraud.
Willis specifically mentioned that Raffensperger, whom she described as an "essential witness," had indicated he would only take part in an interview once presented with a subpoena.
In a statement, Trump defended what he called his "perfect" phone call and repeated false allegations of voter fraud in the 2020 election.
In a separate legal woe for the Trump family, the U.S. House of Representatives' panel investigating the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol on Thursday requested an interview with Trump's daughter and former White House aide Ivanka Trump.
And earlier this week, New York state's attorney general accused Trump's family business of repeatedly misrepresenting the value of its assets to obtain financial benefits, citing what it said was significant new evidence of possible fraud.
Trump critics hope that his legal problems may ultimately stymie a potential presidential run in 2024.
"It begins," Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island tweeted after news of the Georgia request.
'FINDING' VOTES
In her letter, Willis said a special grand jury, which can subpoena witnesses, was needed because jurors can be impaneled for longer periods and focus exclusively on a single probe.
A spokesperson for the superior courts in Fulton County, which encompasses most of the state capital Atlanta, said there was no immediate timeline for a response to Willis' request.
During the Jan. 2, 2021 call, Trump urged Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, to "find" enough votes to overturn his Georgia loss to Democrat Joe Biden.
The transcript quotes Trump telling Raffensperger: "I just want to find 11,780 votes," which is the number Trump needed to win Georgia.
Legal experts have said Trump's phone calls may have violated at least three state election laws: conspiracy to commit election fraud, criminal solicitation to commit election fraud and intentional interference with performance of election duties.
The possible felony and misdemeanor violations are punishable by fines or imprisonment.
Reporting by Rami Ayyub and Alexandra Ulmer; Editing by Bill Berkrot, Jonathan Oatis and Cynthia Osterman.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/georgi ... 022-01-20/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Biden approval rating drops to 43%, lowest of his presidency"
By Jason Lange
January 20, 2022
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's public approval rating fell to the lowest level of his presidency this week as Americans appeared exhausted by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic toll, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.
The national poll, conducted Jan. 19-20, found that 43% of U.S. adults approved of Biden's performance in office, while 52% disapproved and the rest were not sure.
The prior week's poll had put Biden at a 45% approval rating and 50% disapproval.
After holding above 50% in his first months in office, Biden's popularity began dropping in mid-August as COVID-19 deaths surged across the country and the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed.
The ongoing slump in Biden's popularity is ringing alarm bells in his party, with Democrats worried dissatisfaction could cost them their congressional majorities in Nov. 8 elections.
If Republicans take control of either the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate, Biden's legislative agenda could be doomed.
In a rare news conference on Wednesday, Biden acknowledged Americans' frustration at the close of his first year in office.
But he vowed to make progress fighting considerable challenges from the pandemic and inflation, which hit a near 40-year high in December as the health crisis snarled global supply chains.
The weekly poll showed the top issues concerning Americans were the economy and public health.
At the same point in Donald Trump's presidency, about 37% of Americans approved of his performance in office, while 59% disapproved.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll is conducted online in English throughout the United States.
The latest poll gathered responses from a total of 1,004 adults, including 453 Democrats and 365 Republicans.
It has a credibility interval - a measure of precision - of 4 percentage points.
Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Alistair Bell
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden- ... 022-01-20/
"Biden approval rating drops to 43%, lowest of his presidency"
By Jason Lange
January 20, 2022
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's public approval rating fell to the lowest level of his presidency this week as Americans appeared exhausted by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic toll, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.
The national poll, conducted Jan. 19-20, found that 43% of U.S. adults approved of Biden's performance in office, while 52% disapproved and the rest were not sure.
The prior week's poll had put Biden at a 45% approval rating and 50% disapproval.
After holding above 50% in his first months in office, Biden's popularity began dropping in mid-August as COVID-19 deaths surged across the country and the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed.
The ongoing slump in Biden's popularity is ringing alarm bells in his party, with Democrats worried dissatisfaction could cost them their congressional majorities in Nov. 8 elections.
If Republicans take control of either the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate, Biden's legislative agenda could be doomed.
In a rare news conference on Wednesday, Biden acknowledged Americans' frustration at the close of his first year in office.
But he vowed to make progress fighting considerable challenges from the pandemic and inflation, which hit a near 40-year high in December as the health crisis snarled global supply chains.
The weekly poll showed the top issues concerning Americans were the economy and public health.
At the same point in Donald Trump's presidency, about 37% of Americans approved of his performance in office, while 59% disapproved.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll is conducted online in English throughout the United States.
The latest poll gathered responses from a total of 1,004 adults, including 453 Democrats and 365 Republicans.
It has a credibility interval - a measure of precision - of 4 percentage points.
Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Alistair Bell
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden- ... 022-01-20/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"TREASURIES-Yields steady, soft demand for 10-year TIPS"
By Karen Brettell
JANUARY 20, 2022
NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were steady on Thursday after a rapid sell-off that sent yields to two-year highs drew buying interest.
Yields have jumped this month as investors adjust to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy more aggressively to stave off unabated inflation.
However, “the market got a bit oversold,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global Holdings in New York.
Investors are fully pricing in an interest rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting, and three more hikes this year.
The Fed's January meeting next week will also be scrutinized for any clues on whether the U.S. central bank will speed up the end of its bond purchase program, and when it is likely to begin reducing the size of its massive balance sheet.
Benchmark 10-year note yields were last at 1.825%, after reaching 1.902% in overnight trading on Wednesday, which was the highest since January 2020.
The yields could drop to the 1.70% to 1.75% area, though they are likely to resume their increase as Fed rate hikes come into view, di Galoma said, adding that “I think the big institutional accounts are looking to sell rallies rather than buy the dip.”
Real yields, which adjust for expected inflation, have led much of the recent move higher, though they remain negative, meaning that inflation is expected to exceed the yields on the bonds.
Demand for a $16 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was soft on Thursday, with the notes selling more than two basis points above where they traded before the sale.
Yields on 10-year TIPS, or real yields, were last at minus 0.62%.
They have increased from minus 1.20% in November.
Yields on five-year TIPS are at minus 1.08%, up from minus 1.98% in November.
Thirty-year TIPS yields are close to turning positive, however, and are currently trading at minus 0.05%.
Rising geopolitical uncertainty may also increase demand for safe-haven U.S. bonds.
The United States and Western countries sought to project unity and a tough stance over Ukraine on Thursday, after U.S. President Joe Biden suggested allies were split over how to react to any potential "minor incursion" from Russia.
Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, likely as a winter wave of coronavirus infections disrupted business activity, which could constrain job growth this month.
(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Andrea Ricci)
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2U02H8
"TREASURIES-Yields steady, soft demand for 10-year TIPS"
By Karen Brettell
JANUARY 20, 2022
NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were steady on Thursday after a rapid sell-off that sent yields to two-year highs drew buying interest.
Yields have jumped this month as investors adjust to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy more aggressively to stave off unabated inflation.
However, “the market got a bit oversold,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global Holdings in New York.
Investors are fully pricing in an interest rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting, and three more hikes this year.
The Fed's January meeting next week will also be scrutinized for any clues on whether the U.S. central bank will speed up the end of its bond purchase program, and when it is likely to begin reducing the size of its massive balance sheet.
Benchmark 10-year note yields were last at 1.825%, after reaching 1.902% in overnight trading on Wednesday, which was the highest since January 2020.
The yields could drop to the 1.70% to 1.75% area, though they are likely to resume their increase as Fed rate hikes come into view, di Galoma said, adding that “I think the big institutional accounts are looking to sell rallies rather than buy the dip.”
Real yields, which adjust for expected inflation, have led much of the recent move higher, though they remain negative, meaning that inflation is expected to exceed the yields on the bonds.
Demand for a $16 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was soft on Thursday, with the notes selling more than two basis points above where they traded before the sale.
Yields on 10-year TIPS, or real yields, were last at minus 0.62%.
They have increased from minus 1.20% in November.
Yields on five-year TIPS are at minus 1.08%, up from minus 1.98% in November.
Thirty-year TIPS yields are close to turning positive, however, and are currently trading at minus 0.05%.
Rising geopolitical uncertainty may also increase demand for safe-haven U.S. bonds.
The United States and Western countries sought to project unity and a tough stance over Ukraine on Thursday, after U.S. President Joe Biden suggested allies were split over how to react to any potential "minor incursion" from Russia.
Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, likely as a winter wave of coronavirus infections disrupted business activity, which could constrain job growth this month.
(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Andrea Ricci)
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bon ... SL1N2U02H8
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"U.S. House Speaker Pelosi says banning member stock trades possible"
Reuters
January 20, 2022
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday signaled her willingness to advance legislation that could ban lawmaker stock trades, if her rank-and-file Democrats support such a move.
At her weekly news conference, Pelosi was asked about tightening controls on stock transactions.
She responded: "If members (of the House) want to do that, I'm OK with that."
Currently, representatives are required to disclose stock sale transactions within a prescribed number of days or face penalties.
The requirement is aimed at tackling any appearances of a conflict of interest by House members who could be working on legislation affecting companies or certain investors.
Pelosi added that any suspicions of insider trading by members of Congress would be subject to investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.
Her remarks were a departure from a month ago when she defended lawmakers engaging in stock market trading.
On Thursday, Pelosi prefaced her remarks by saying she had "great confidence in the integrity of my members."
"To give a blanket attitude of we can't do this and we can't do that because we can't be trusted, I just don't buy into that," the top House Democrat said.
The House Administration Committee, which would have primary jurisdiction over such legislation, is reviewing bills that are being drafted, Pelosi said.
Meantime, Pelosi criticized the U.S. Supreme Court for having lax rules.
"When we go forward with anything let's take the Supreme Court with us to have disclosure," she said.
Reporting by Richard Cowan; editing by Jonathan Oatis
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-hou ... 022-01-20/
"U.S. House Speaker Pelosi says banning member stock trades possible"
Reuters
January 20, 2022
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday signaled her willingness to advance legislation that could ban lawmaker stock trades, if her rank-and-file Democrats support such a move.
At her weekly news conference, Pelosi was asked about tightening controls on stock transactions.
She responded: "If members (of the House) want to do that, I'm OK with that."
Currently, representatives are required to disclose stock sale transactions within a prescribed number of days or face penalties.
The requirement is aimed at tackling any appearances of a conflict of interest by House members who could be working on legislation affecting companies or certain investors.
Pelosi added that any suspicions of insider trading by members of Congress would be subject to investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.
Her remarks were a departure from a month ago when she defended lawmakers engaging in stock market trading.
On Thursday, Pelosi prefaced her remarks by saying she had "great confidence in the integrity of my members."
"To give a blanket attitude of we can't do this and we can't do that because we can't be trusted, I just don't buy into that," the top House Democrat said.
The House Administration Committee, which would have primary jurisdiction over such legislation, is reviewing bills that are being drafted, Pelosi said.
Meantime, Pelosi criticized the U.S. Supreme Court for having lax rules.
"When we go forward with anything let's take the Supreme Court with us to have disclosure," she said.
Reporting by Richard Cowan; editing by Jonathan Oatis
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-hou ... 022-01-20/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"Wall Street rally fizzles as Fed tightening fears spook investors"
By Herbert Lash and Huw Jones
January 20, 2022
Summary
* Crude oil prices hit fresh seven-year highs, then slip
* Dollar, gold edge higher; rally in bond yields pauses
* China stocks gain after cut in benchmark mortgage rates
* Risk of Russia-Ukraine flare up could weigh on markets - ING
NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - A rebound on Wall Street fizzled on Thursday as investors lost conviction that an early rally had legs, with the Nasdaq falling more than 1% and crude oil prices hitting fresh seven-year highs to rekindled fears of inflation and higher interest rates.
Concern that the Federal Reserve will aggressively move to raise rates this year is taking a toll on the market.
Investors are anxiously awaiting the U.S. central bank's policy meeting next week for new details on how it will tackle inflation.
Crude prices initially eased before climbing to fresh seven-year highs.
The major Wall Street indices sharply pared gains of more than 1% to close about that much lower.
The week's big rally in U.S. Treasury yields also showed signs of resuming.
"The rally looked strong on the surface, when you look at prices being higher," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
"There are more people since the beginning of the year inclined to be sellers on weakness for fear that things keep going further lower."
Strong earnings reports initially helped lift stocks into the black in a broad rally while the major indices in Europe also gained.
The broad pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index closed up 0.51%.
U.S. stocks turned negative late in the session, leading MSCI's all-country world index to fall 0.32%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.89%, the S&P 500 lost 1.10% and the Nasdaq Composite, in a correction after Wednesday's close, fell 1.30%.
Investors have been concerned about rising rates because they raise borrowing costs and could dent global growth prospects and douse the earnings outlook for companies.
A Reuters poll of economists showed they expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy at a much faster pace than thought a month ago to tame high inflation.
Chair Jerome Powell will stick to the Fed's message of tighter monetary policy next week as inflation has become a hot political issue, said Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis.
"There's no reason for him at the moment to deviate from what clearly has been a more hawkish script."
"That runs the risk of the markets maybe getting more nervous next week," LaVorgna added.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1.2 basis points at 1.037%.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes in late trade was down 1.2 basis points at 1.815% after earlier trading higher.
The key catalyst for markets so far in 2022 has been expectations of higher rates as the Fed tightens monetary policy, said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree Investments Inc.
"Given the amount of selling pressure we saw earlier in the week, the market is just consolidating a little bit."
"Rates don't always move every day in the same direction," Flanagan said.
European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation will decrease gradually over the year, adding that the ECB did not need to act as boldly as the Fed because of a different economic situation.
ASIA PERKS UP, UKRAINE EYED
Asian share markets broke a five-day slide, pushing higher on Thursday as China underscored its diverging monetary and economic picture by cutting benchmark mortgage rates.
China's blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.9% on the day, led by property developers, amid hopes government measures would ease a funding squeeze in the embattled sector, even as another developer warned of default.
Analysts at ING said geopolitical risks, notably the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine, could continue to weigh on global shares, adding to pressure on rising rates concerns.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, rose 0.197% to 95.797, while the yen fell 0.17% at $114.1200.
The euro slid 0.27% to $1.1310.
Crude prices rebounded but settled slightly lower.
Brent crude settled down $0.06 to $88.38 a barrel.
U.S. crude futures slid $0.06 to settle at $86.90 a barrel.
Gold and silver touched fresh two-month highs, lifted by worries surrounding inflation and Russia-Ukraine tensions.
U.S. gold futures settled flat at $1,842.60 an ounce, while silver rose 2.1% to $24.63 an ounce.
Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Huw Jones in London, Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Will Dunham, Bernadette Baum and Cynthia Osterman
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 022-01-20/
"Wall Street rally fizzles as Fed tightening fears spook investors"
By Herbert Lash and Huw Jones
January 20, 2022
Summary
* Crude oil prices hit fresh seven-year highs, then slip
* Dollar, gold edge higher; rally in bond yields pauses
* China stocks gain after cut in benchmark mortgage rates
* Risk of Russia-Ukraine flare up could weigh on markets - ING
NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - A rebound on Wall Street fizzled on Thursday as investors lost conviction that an early rally had legs, with the Nasdaq falling more than 1% and crude oil prices hitting fresh seven-year highs to rekindled fears of inflation and higher interest rates.
Concern that the Federal Reserve will aggressively move to raise rates this year is taking a toll on the market.
Investors are anxiously awaiting the U.S. central bank's policy meeting next week for new details on how it will tackle inflation.
Crude prices initially eased before climbing to fresh seven-year highs.
The major Wall Street indices sharply pared gains of more than 1% to close about that much lower.
The week's big rally in U.S. Treasury yields also showed signs of resuming.
"The rally looked strong on the surface, when you look at prices being higher," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
"There are more people since the beginning of the year inclined to be sellers on weakness for fear that things keep going further lower."
Strong earnings reports initially helped lift stocks into the black in a broad rally while the major indices in Europe also gained.
The broad pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index closed up 0.51%.
U.S. stocks turned negative late in the session, leading MSCI's all-country world index to fall 0.32%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.89%, the S&P 500 lost 1.10% and the Nasdaq Composite, in a correction after Wednesday's close, fell 1.30%.
Investors have been concerned about rising rates because they raise borrowing costs and could dent global growth prospects and douse the earnings outlook for companies.
A Reuters poll of economists showed they expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy at a much faster pace than thought a month ago to tame high inflation.
Chair Jerome Powell will stick to the Fed's message of tighter monetary policy next week as inflation has become a hot political issue, said Joe LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis.
"There's no reason for him at the moment to deviate from what clearly has been a more hawkish script."
"That runs the risk of the markets maybe getting more nervous next week," LaVorgna added.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1.2 basis points at 1.037%.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes in late trade was down 1.2 basis points at 1.815% after earlier trading higher.
The key catalyst for markets so far in 2022 has been expectations of higher rates as the Fed tightens monetary policy, said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree Investments Inc.
"Given the amount of selling pressure we saw earlier in the week, the market is just consolidating a little bit."
"Rates don't always move every day in the same direction," Flanagan said.
European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation will decrease gradually over the year, adding that the ECB did not need to act as boldly as the Fed because of a different economic situation.
ASIA PERKS UP, UKRAINE EYED
Asian share markets broke a five-day slide, pushing higher on Thursday as China underscored its diverging monetary and economic picture by cutting benchmark mortgage rates.
China's blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.9% on the day, led by property developers, amid hopes government measures would ease a funding squeeze in the embattled sector, even as another developer warned of default.
Analysts at ING said geopolitical risks, notably the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine, could continue to weigh on global shares, adding to pressure on rising rates concerns.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, rose 0.197% to 95.797, while the yen fell 0.17% at $114.1200.
The euro slid 0.27% to $1.1310.
Crude prices rebounded but settled slightly lower.
Brent crude settled down $0.06 to $88.38 a barrel.
U.S. crude futures slid $0.06 to settle at $86.90 a barrel.
Gold and silver touched fresh two-month highs, lifted by worries surrounding inflation and Russia-Ukraine tensions.
U.S. gold futures settled flat at $1,842.60 an ounce, while silver rose 2.1% to $24.63 an ounce.
Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Huw Jones in London, Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Will Dunham, Bernadette Baum and Cynthia Osterman
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 022-01-20/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
REUTERS
"U.S. weekly jobless claims at three-month high amid Omicron wave"
By Lucia Mutikani
January 20, 2022
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims increase 55,000 to 286,000
* Continuing claims jump 84,000 to 1.635 million
* Mid-Atlantic factory activity picks up in January
* Existing home sales drop 4.6% in December
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a three-month high last week, likely as a winter wave of COVID-19 infections disrupted business activity, which could weigh on job growth in January.
The third straight weekly increase in jobless claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday was also influenced by unfavorable seasonal factors after the holidays.
But coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant, are subsiding and the seasonal factors, the model used by the government to iron out seasonal fluctuations in the data, are seen normalizing soon, suggesting the recent surge in applications is a blip.
"The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is hurting the U.S. labor market, but the good news is that this will be temporary," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged 55,000 to a seasonally adjusted 286,000 for the week ended Jan. 15, the highest level since mid-October.
The increase was the largest since last July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 applications for the latest week.
Unadjusted claims fell 83,418 to 337,417 last week.
The decline was, however, less than the 138,773 decrease that had been anticipated by the seasonal factors.
Claims rose 6,075 in California, but plunged 14,011 in New York.
The United States is reporting an average of 752,698 new coronavirus infections a day, according to a Reuters analysis of official data.
The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey on Wednesday showed 8.8 million people reported not being at work because of coronavirus-related reasons between Dec. 29 and Jan. 10.
That was up from the 3 million from Dec. 1 to Dec. 13.
The bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey released on Thursday also showed an increase in establishments reporting large negative impacts from the pandemic.
It was led by accommodation and food services businesses, with big rises also in education as well as arts entertainment and recreation.
The labor market setback is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in March to tackle high inflation.
Claims have plunged from a record high of 6.149 million in early April 2020.
Employers are desperate for workers, with 10.6 million job openings at the end of November.
The unemployment rate is at a 22-month low of 3.9%, a sign the labor market is at or close to maximum employment.
"The underlying strength in the labor market suggests this is a temporary blip due to Omicron," said John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management in Charlotte, North Carolina.
"We look for job growth to continue to firm as global cyclical recovery persists."
Stocks on Wall Street were higher.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury yields fell.
BAD OMEN?
But some economists worried that the jump in claims, which followed a plunge in retail sales in December as well as manufacturing production, could be signaling a faster slowdown in economic activity than currently anticipated.
"The higher layoffs are a cautionary tale for the economy where despite inflation pressures, the Fed will have to proceed with their interest rate hikes at a measured pace," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
"The economy may be slowing down more than previously believed."
Manufacturing, however, appears to be picking up, though shortages and higher prices remain a headache.
The Philadelphia Fed said on Thursday its business activity index rose to a reading of 23.2 in January from 15.4 in December.
Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region's manufacturing sector, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.
News on the housing market was discouraging.
A fourth report from the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales dropped 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million units in December as higher prices amid record low inventory continued to shut out some first-time buyers.
Economists expect demand for housing to remain strong even as mortgage rates increase.
"Unless job and income growth slow sharply, owner-occupied housing demand is likely to remain solid, keeping upward pressure on house prices," said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio.
Worker shortages are boosting wages, and households are sitting on savings accumulated during the pandemic.
The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of January's employment report.
Last week's jump in claims together with the rise in businesses negatively impacted by COVID-19 and persistent labor shortages raise the risk of a drop in payrolls this month.
The economy added 199,000 jobs in December, the fewest in a year.
The workforce is about 2.2 million smaller than before the pandemic.
The recent softening in the labor market trend was also highlighted by the claims report, which showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased by 84,000 to 1.635 million in the week ended Jan. 8.
"The pandemic continues to displace workers from the labor force," said Van Hesser, chief strategist at Kroll Bond Rating Agency in New York.
"We need the labor force to grow to sustain healthy economic growth."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci and Leslie Adler
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-wee ... 022-01-20/
"U.S. weekly jobless claims at three-month high amid Omicron wave"
By Lucia Mutikani
January 20, 2022
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims increase 55,000 to 286,000
* Continuing claims jump 84,000 to 1.635 million
* Mid-Atlantic factory activity picks up in January
* Existing home sales drop 4.6% in December
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a three-month high last week, likely as a winter wave of COVID-19 infections disrupted business activity, which could weigh on job growth in January.
The third straight weekly increase in jobless claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday was also influenced by unfavorable seasonal factors after the holidays.
But coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant, are subsiding and the seasonal factors, the model used by the government to iron out seasonal fluctuations in the data, are seen normalizing soon, suggesting the recent surge in applications is a blip.
"The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is hurting the U.S. labor market, but the good news is that this will be temporary," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged 55,000 to a seasonally adjusted 286,000 for the week ended Jan. 15, the highest level since mid-October.
The increase was the largest since last July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 applications for the latest week.
Unadjusted claims fell 83,418 to 337,417 last week.
The decline was, however, less than the 138,773 decrease that had been anticipated by the seasonal factors.
Claims rose 6,075 in California, but plunged 14,011 in New York.
The United States is reporting an average of 752,698 new coronavirus infections a day, according to a Reuters analysis of official data.
The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey on Wednesday showed 8.8 million people reported not being at work because of coronavirus-related reasons between Dec. 29 and Jan. 10.
That was up from the 3 million from Dec. 1 to Dec. 13.
The bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey released on Thursday also showed an increase in establishments reporting large negative impacts from the pandemic.
It was led by accommodation and food services businesses, with big rises also in education as well as arts entertainment and recreation.
The labor market setback is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in March to tackle high inflation.
Claims have plunged from a record high of 6.149 million in early April 2020.
Employers are desperate for workers, with 10.6 million job openings at the end of November.
The unemployment rate is at a 22-month low of 3.9%, a sign the labor market is at or close to maximum employment.
"The underlying strength in the labor market suggests this is a temporary blip due to Omicron," said John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management in Charlotte, North Carolina.
"We look for job growth to continue to firm as global cyclical recovery persists."
Stocks on Wall Street were higher.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury yields fell.
BAD OMEN?
But some economists worried that the jump in claims, which followed a plunge in retail sales in December as well as manufacturing production, could be signaling a faster slowdown in economic activity than currently anticipated.
"The higher layoffs are a cautionary tale for the economy where despite inflation pressures, the Fed will have to proceed with their interest rate hikes at a measured pace," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
"The economy may be slowing down more than previously believed."
Manufacturing, however, appears to be picking up, though shortages and higher prices remain a headache.
The Philadelphia Fed said on Thursday its business activity index rose to a reading of 23.2 in January from 15.4 in December.
Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region's manufacturing sector, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.
News on the housing market was discouraging.
A fourth report from the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales dropped 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million units in December as higher prices amid record low inventory continued to shut out some first-time buyers.
Economists expect demand for housing to remain strong even as mortgage rates increase.
"Unless job and income growth slow sharply, owner-occupied housing demand is likely to remain solid, keeping upward pressure on house prices," said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio.
Worker shortages are boosting wages, and households are sitting on savings accumulated during the pandemic.
The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of January's employment report.
Last week's jump in claims together with the rise in businesses negatively impacted by COVID-19 and persistent labor shortages raise the risk of a drop in payrolls this month.
The economy added 199,000 jobs in December, the fewest in a year.
The workforce is about 2.2 million smaller than before the pandemic.
The recent softening in the labor market trend was also highlighted by the claims report, which showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased by 84,000 to 1.635 million in the week ended Jan. 8.
"The pandemic continues to displace workers from the labor force," said Van Hesser, chief strategist at Kroll Bond Rating Agency in New York.
"We need the labor force to grow to sustain healthy economic growth."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci and Leslie Adler
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-wee ... 022-01-20/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
POLITICO
"Why Schumer picked a filibuster fight he couldn't win"
By Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine
19 JANUARY 2022
Chuck Schumer doesn’t typically lead his caucus into losing votes that divide Democrats.
He made an exception for election reform.
“We sent our best emissary to talk to the Republicans."
"That was Joe Manchin."
"And we gave him months,” Chuck Schumer said Wednesday.
The Senate majority leader has run a 50-50 Senate for a year now, longer than anyone else.
The whole time, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin have consistently communicated to Schumer that he wouldn’t get their votes to weaken the filibuster, no matter the underlying issue.
But his decision to force the vote on the caucus anyway — and get 48 Democrats on the record for a unilateral rules change dubbed "the nuclear option" — will go down as one of Schumer’s riskiest moves as leader.
The New Yorker was a defender and wielder of the filibuster while serving as minority leader during Donald Trump's presidency.
But Democrats’ year of work on writing elections and voting legislation — and GOP opposition to an effort designed to undo state-level ballot restrictions — turned Schumer into a proponent of scrapping the Senate's 60-vote threshold, at least for this bill.
He and most of his members have endorsed what they see as a limited change to chamber rules.
Even so, Schumer has set the table for a future majority with a slightly bigger margin, whether it's Democratic or Republican, to follow through where he fell short and perhaps go further.
Schumer gave Manchin months of space to work on a compromise elections bill, despite activists pushing him to move quicker.
The leader's insistence on a vote that will split his caucus has only trained more ire on the West Virginian and Sinema of Arizona, whom he needs to execute the rest of President Joe Biden’s agenda.
Yet Schumer says he had no choice.
“We sent our best emissary to talk to the Republicans."
"That was Joe Manchin."
"And we gave him months,” Schumer said in an interview on Wednesday.
“The epiphany that occurred on a rules change?"
"He didn’t even get any bites.”
Though social spending, coronavirus relief and infrastructure have at times consumed the Senate this Congress, no topic has riveted Democrats like voting and election reform.
Schumer designed Democrats’ first version of the bill “S. 1” — denoting it as the party’s top priority.
Even when senators were digging into other legislation, Schumer was still maneuvering on elections, convening weekly meetings with a small group of senators for months.
His long arc of aligning Democrats for a bill designed to fight gerrymandering, expand early voting and make Election Day a federal holiday ended up persuading literally dozens of them to change the filibuster — despite previous vows in writing that they would do no such thing.
In quick succession this summer, Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Angus King (I-Maine) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) informed Schumer they would back a rules change.
That same trio tried and failed to sway Manchin to their side.
“Truly, he’s worked every way possible to try to get us to yes."
"This is the last piece of the puzzle."
"If this doesn’t do it, then he has literally turned over every rock in the crick."
"He’s done everything,” Tester said of Schumer.
There are no moral victories in the Senate: Bills either pass or they fail.
And Schumer has repeatedly acknowledged it was a fight he might not be able to win.
Sinema and Manchin support Democrats’ election reforms but not going around the 60-vote threshold to pass them, which assures that the legislation will ultimately not succeed.
Still, by midday Wednesday the rules change had won over Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), all previously reluctant to chip at the filibuster.
Early last year, “maybe only half would be for changing the filibuster rule."
"And by the fall it grew,” Schumer said.
“We have 48.”
Sinema and Manchin, however, have been remarkably consistent in opposing changes to the filibuster.
In a 2019 interview, Sinema bluntly warned Schumer and Democratic leaders that they “will not get my vote” to tweak the supermajority requirement.
Manchin voted against his party's 2013 move to end the filibuster for most nominations and vowed last January that "I will not vote in this Congress” to change the threshold.
Sinema declined to comment for this story.
In a floor speech on Wednesday, Manchin said Schumer should keep the voting and elections package on the Senate floor for weeks rather than move quickly to a rules change to pass the bill.
“We could have kept voting rights legislation as the pending business for the Senate today, next week, a month from now," Manchin said.
"This is important.”
Just one year ago, Manchin's and Sinema’s positions were a boon to Schumer; at that time, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to sign off on an organizing resolution for a 50-50 Senate without a vow from Schumer not to change the filibuster.
Schumer never gave that promise, even as two of his moderates did.
Yet the Democratic leader has been deliberate and almost painstaking in his drive against the filibuster, to a degree that his predecessor, the late Sen. Harry Reid, was not after he left the Senate and campaigned against the supermajority requirement.
Schumer convened a small group of centrist Democrats for “family conversations” about rules changes after another failed vote on voting legislation earlier last year.
He made his first explicit push in December, after Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) blocked a bipartisan amendment deal on a defense bill.
At that point Schumer was most focused on passing Biden’s $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill.
When Manchin derailed that, Schumer quickly moved to the voting legislation, even while acknowledging it was an “uphill” battle.
Schumer usually touts his caucus' unity, declining to engage in extended debates over issues that divide his 50 members.
This time, Democrats were fine with isolating the holdouts.
“There’s been a lot of anxiety as to how high of a priority this is for us."
"And this, I think, makes it clear there is no higher priority,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.).
Republicans view the real leftward pressure on Schumer as coming from outside the chamber.
“He’s feeling incredible pressure from his progressive base."
"And also, his own political future may depend on his performance, too, to avoid a difficult primary,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a frequent sparring partner of Schumer’s.
Schumer is up for reelection but has yet to draw a primary opponent, despite the GOP’s hopes that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) challenges him.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) said it’s “extremely cynical” to believe Schumer’s actions as leader stem from a primary threat that she said won’t materialize anyway: “I doubt it.”
There are other political considerations afoot.
While Republicans are planning to hammer Democratic incumbents up for reelection this fall, the four Democrats facing the toughest Senate races all back Schumer's rules change.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) said Wednesday that the Senate needs to be restored “to a time where we can debate these issues,” and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) said when she vowed to protect the filibuster she “never imagined that today's Republican Party would fail to stand up for democracy."
Kelly said simply that Schumer's "prerogative" is to call votes.
“My job is to come here and represent my constituents in the best way I know how."
"And to vote on legislation, even if it’s not going to pass.”
Some Democrats suggested that Schumer's move on Wednesday was only the start of a long campaign to peel off Manchin and Sinema.
Another unilateral rules change vote this year isn't off the table for the party.
But as Schumer neared the on-record floor vote he craved, he still sounded a note of willingness to keep working with Republicans.
Even, it seems, on overhauling chamber rules.
“We have to restore the Senate,” Schumer said.
“What I intend to do on rules changes is get a group together, maybe even bipartisan, to come up with rules changes and see what we can do to make the Senate better.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgntp
"Why Schumer picked a filibuster fight he couldn't win"
By Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine
19 JANUARY 2022
Chuck Schumer doesn’t typically lead his caucus into losing votes that divide Democrats.
He made an exception for election reform.
“We sent our best emissary to talk to the Republicans."
"That was Joe Manchin."
"And we gave him months,” Chuck Schumer said Wednesday.
The Senate majority leader has run a 50-50 Senate for a year now, longer than anyone else.
The whole time, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin have consistently communicated to Schumer that he wouldn’t get their votes to weaken the filibuster, no matter the underlying issue.
But his decision to force the vote on the caucus anyway — and get 48 Democrats on the record for a unilateral rules change dubbed "the nuclear option" — will go down as one of Schumer’s riskiest moves as leader.
The New Yorker was a defender and wielder of the filibuster while serving as minority leader during Donald Trump's presidency.
But Democrats’ year of work on writing elections and voting legislation — and GOP opposition to an effort designed to undo state-level ballot restrictions — turned Schumer into a proponent of scrapping the Senate's 60-vote threshold, at least for this bill.
He and most of his members have endorsed what they see as a limited change to chamber rules.
Even so, Schumer has set the table for a future majority with a slightly bigger margin, whether it's Democratic or Republican, to follow through where he fell short and perhaps go further.
Schumer gave Manchin months of space to work on a compromise elections bill, despite activists pushing him to move quicker.
The leader's insistence on a vote that will split his caucus has only trained more ire on the West Virginian and Sinema of Arizona, whom he needs to execute the rest of President Joe Biden’s agenda.
Yet Schumer says he had no choice.
“We sent our best emissary to talk to the Republicans."
"That was Joe Manchin."
"And we gave him months,” Schumer said in an interview on Wednesday.
“The epiphany that occurred on a rules change?"
"He didn’t even get any bites.”
Though social spending, coronavirus relief and infrastructure have at times consumed the Senate this Congress, no topic has riveted Democrats like voting and election reform.
Schumer designed Democrats’ first version of the bill “S. 1” — denoting it as the party’s top priority.
Even when senators were digging into other legislation, Schumer was still maneuvering on elections, convening weekly meetings with a small group of senators for months.
His long arc of aligning Democrats for a bill designed to fight gerrymandering, expand early voting and make Election Day a federal holiday ended up persuading literally dozens of them to change the filibuster — despite previous vows in writing that they would do no such thing.
In quick succession this summer, Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Angus King (I-Maine) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) informed Schumer they would back a rules change.
That same trio tried and failed to sway Manchin to their side.
“Truly, he’s worked every way possible to try to get us to yes."
"This is the last piece of the puzzle."
"If this doesn’t do it, then he has literally turned over every rock in the crick."
"He’s done everything,” Tester said of Schumer.
There are no moral victories in the Senate: Bills either pass or they fail.
And Schumer has repeatedly acknowledged it was a fight he might not be able to win.
Sinema and Manchin support Democrats’ election reforms but not going around the 60-vote threshold to pass them, which assures that the legislation will ultimately not succeed.
Still, by midday Wednesday the rules change had won over Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), all previously reluctant to chip at the filibuster.
Early last year, “maybe only half would be for changing the filibuster rule."
"And by the fall it grew,” Schumer said.
“We have 48.”
Sinema and Manchin, however, have been remarkably consistent in opposing changes to the filibuster.
In a 2019 interview, Sinema bluntly warned Schumer and Democratic leaders that they “will not get my vote” to tweak the supermajority requirement.
Manchin voted against his party's 2013 move to end the filibuster for most nominations and vowed last January that "I will not vote in this Congress” to change the threshold.
Sinema declined to comment for this story.
In a floor speech on Wednesday, Manchin said Schumer should keep the voting and elections package on the Senate floor for weeks rather than move quickly to a rules change to pass the bill.
“We could have kept voting rights legislation as the pending business for the Senate today, next week, a month from now," Manchin said.
"This is important.”
Just one year ago, Manchin's and Sinema’s positions were a boon to Schumer; at that time, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to sign off on an organizing resolution for a 50-50 Senate without a vow from Schumer not to change the filibuster.
Schumer never gave that promise, even as two of his moderates did.
Yet the Democratic leader has been deliberate and almost painstaking in his drive against the filibuster, to a degree that his predecessor, the late Sen. Harry Reid, was not after he left the Senate and campaigned against the supermajority requirement.
Schumer convened a small group of centrist Democrats for “family conversations” about rules changes after another failed vote on voting legislation earlier last year.
He made his first explicit push in December, after Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) blocked a bipartisan amendment deal on a defense bill.
At that point Schumer was most focused on passing Biden’s $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill.
When Manchin derailed that, Schumer quickly moved to the voting legislation, even while acknowledging it was an “uphill” battle.
Schumer usually touts his caucus' unity, declining to engage in extended debates over issues that divide his 50 members.
This time, Democrats were fine with isolating the holdouts.
“There’s been a lot of anxiety as to how high of a priority this is for us."
"And this, I think, makes it clear there is no higher priority,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.).
Republicans view the real leftward pressure on Schumer as coming from outside the chamber.
“He’s feeling incredible pressure from his progressive base."
"And also, his own political future may depend on his performance, too, to avoid a difficult primary,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a frequent sparring partner of Schumer’s.
Schumer is up for reelection but has yet to draw a primary opponent, despite the GOP’s hopes that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) challenges him.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) said it’s “extremely cynical” to believe Schumer’s actions as leader stem from a primary threat that she said won’t materialize anyway: “I doubt it.”
There are other political considerations afoot.
While Republicans are planning to hammer Democratic incumbents up for reelection this fall, the four Democrats facing the toughest Senate races all back Schumer's rules change.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) said Wednesday that the Senate needs to be restored “to a time where we can debate these issues,” and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) said when she vowed to protect the filibuster she “never imagined that today's Republican Party would fail to stand up for democracy."
Kelly said simply that Schumer's "prerogative" is to call votes.
“My job is to come here and represent my constituents in the best way I know how."
"And to vote on legislation, even if it’s not going to pass.”
Some Democrats suggested that Schumer's move on Wednesday was only the start of a long campaign to peel off Manchin and Sinema.
Another unilateral rules change vote this year isn't off the table for the party.
But as Schumer neared the on-record floor vote he craved, he still sounded a note of willingness to keep working with Republicans.
Even, it seems, on overhauling chamber rules.
“We have to restore the Senate,” Schumer said.
“What I intend to do on rules changes is get a group together, maybe even bipartisan, to come up with rules changes and see what we can do to make the Senate better.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgntp
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
RIGZONE
"Oil Fell Friday but Up on Week"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, January 21, 2022
Oil capped its fifth week of gains on continued signs of robust demand and strained crude supplies that have taken prices to seven-year highs.
Futures in New York edged lower on Friday, just above $85 a barrel, but were still up 1.6% for the week.
Oil neared $88 earlier this week for its highest level since 2014 as geopolitical tensions threatened greater supply outages alongside strong demand numbers, despite the omicron variant.
As prices rise, much of Wall Street has been growing steadily more bullish.
Morgan Stanley has joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in forecasting $100 oil later this year, and Bank of America reiterated that it expects oil to hit $120 a barrel by the summer.
Citigroup Inc. cautioned that sticking to a bullish view could be dangerous after this quarter.
Markets also dissected the strong picture of demand that multiple reports provided this week.
The International Energy Agency said the oil market was looking tighter than previously thought, with demand proving resilient despite the rapid spread of omicron.
Additionally, U.S. demand is still running hot, with the total volume of oil products supplied to the market at the highest for this time of year in at least 30 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Earlier on Friday, futures fell over 3% alongside broader equity markets and raw materials including copper.
While commodities have been extremely resilient at the start of the year due to supply risks and geopolitical concerns, they won’t “continue to be completely insulated,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.
Crude’s bumper rally had pushed many of the main futures contracts into overbought territory on a technical basis.
Brent, WTI and heating-oil futures all moved out of that zone amid the sharp price pullback early Friday.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for March fell 41 cents to settle at $85.14 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement slipped 49 cents to settle at $87.89 a barrel.
Oil’s rally has also caught the eye of the White House as it poses a political risk for President Joe Biden.
The U.S. is considering accelerating the release of strategic reserves, but many of Biden’s options to address the rally would be limited and likely short-lived.
Still, the focus remains on how much further the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies can lift output.
Pavel Zavalny, head of the Russian Duma Energy Committee, said restoring production won’t be easy amid technical challenges and underinvestment.
(with assistance from Devika Krishna Kumar)
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 7-article/
"Oil Fell Friday but Up on Week"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, January 21, 2022
Oil capped its fifth week of gains on continued signs of robust demand and strained crude supplies that have taken prices to seven-year highs.
Futures in New York edged lower on Friday, just above $85 a barrel, but were still up 1.6% for the week.
Oil neared $88 earlier this week for its highest level since 2014 as geopolitical tensions threatened greater supply outages alongside strong demand numbers, despite the omicron variant.
As prices rise, much of Wall Street has been growing steadily more bullish.
Morgan Stanley has joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in forecasting $100 oil later this year, and Bank of America reiterated that it expects oil to hit $120 a barrel by the summer.
Citigroup Inc. cautioned that sticking to a bullish view could be dangerous after this quarter.
Markets also dissected the strong picture of demand that multiple reports provided this week.
The International Energy Agency said the oil market was looking tighter than previously thought, with demand proving resilient despite the rapid spread of omicron.
Additionally, U.S. demand is still running hot, with the total volume of oil products supplied to the market at the highest for this time of year in at least 30 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Earlier on Friday, futures fell over 3% alongside broader equity markets and raw materials including copper.
While commodities have been extremely resilient at the start of the year due to supply risks and geopolitical concerns, they won’t “continue to be completely insulated,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.
Crude’s bumper rally had pushed many of the main futures contracts into overbought territory on a technical basis.
Brent, WTI and heating-oil futures all moved out of that zone amid the sharp price pullback early Friday.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for March fell 41 cents to settle at $85.14 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement slipped 49 cents to settle at $87.89 a barrel.
Oil’s rally has also caught the eye of the White House as it poses a political risk for President Joe Biden.
The U.S. is considering accelerating the release of strategic reserves, but many of Biden’s options to address the rally would be limited and likely short-lived.
Still, the focus remains on how much further the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies can lift output.
Pavel Zavalny, head of the Russian Duma Energy Committee, said restoring production won’t be easy amid technical challenges and underinvestment.
(with assistance from Devika Krishna Kumar)
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 7-article/
Re: THE DAILY NEWS
CNBC
"Treasury yields retreat; 10-year falls to 1.75%"
Maggie Fitzgerald @MKMFITZGERALD Vicky McKeever @VMCKEEVERCNBC
PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 21 2022
U.S. Treasury yields retreated on Friday, with the 10-year rate falling to around 1.75%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 7 basis points to 1.75%.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved 6 basis points lower to 2.074%.
Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.9% in early trading on Wednesday, with investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s timeline for raising interest rates and broadly tightening monetary policy.
A pullback in central bank economic support measures, along with concerns around rising inflation, also prompted investors to sell out of two-year Treasurys, which indicate short-term interest rate expectations.
The two-year yield topped 1% for the first time in two years earlier in the week.
It traded at 1.024% in early trading on Friday.
Mike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday that the “bond market is no longer the world’s greatest economist, it’s effectively taking leadership from the Fed.”
Harris explained that while the debate over whether inflation is transitory was being reflected in Treasury trading, the “bond market doesn’t have a way to fully price it in, until the Fed gets there.”
“So I wouldn’t read too much into market moves unless we saw the long bond falling substantially and persistently, which seems totally improbable at this stage,” he added.
The German 10-year bund yield traded in positive territory for the first time in nearly three years on Wednesday morning.
It has since fallen back to trade at 0.048% on Friday morning.
Investors will now be turning their attention to the Fed’s January two-day policy meeting, set to start on Tuesday.
In a note on Friday, ING strategists said that they believed that Fed could well “announce an end to its asset purchases already at next week’s meeting, setting the stage for a first interest rate hike in March.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/21/us-bond ... -ease.html
"Treasury yields retreat; 10-year falls to 1.75%"
Maggie Fitzgerald @MKMFITZGERALD Vicky McKeever @VMCKEEVERCNBC
PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 21 2022
U.S. Treasury yields retreated on Friday, with the 10-year rate falling to around 1.75%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 7 basis points to 1.75%.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved 6 basis points lower to 2.074%.
Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.9% in early trading on Wednesday, with investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s timeline for raising interest rates and broadly tightening monetary policy.
A pullback in central bank economic support measures, along with concerns around rising inflation, also prompted investors to sell out of two-year Treasurys, which indicate short-term interest rate expectations.
The two-year yield topped 1% for the first time in two years earlier in the week.
It traded at 1.024% in early trading on Friday.
Mike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday that the “bond market is no longer the world’s greatest economist, it’s effectively taking leadership from the Fed.”
Harris explained that while the debate over whether inflation is transitory was being reflected in Treasury trading, the “bond market doesn’t have a way to fully price it in, until the Fed gets there.”
“So I wouldn’t read too much into market moves unless we saw the long bond falling substantially and persistently, which seems totally improbable at this stage,” he added.
The German 10-year bund yield traded in positive territory for the first time in nearly three years on Wednesday morning.
It has since fallen back to trade at 0.048% on Friday morning.
Investors will now be turning their attention to the Fed’s January two-day policy meeting, set to start on Tuesday.
In a note on Friday, ING strategists said that they believed that Fed could well “announce an end to its asset purchases already at next week’s meeting, setting the stage for a first interest rate hike in March.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/21/us-bond ... -ease.html