POLITICS

thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"Growth in US labor costs accelerates in first quarter"


By Lucia Mutikani

April 30, 2024

Summary

* Employment cost index rises 1.2% in first quarter

* Wages increase 1.1%; up 4.4% year-on-year

* House prices surge 7.0% year-on-year in February


WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - U.S. labor costs increased more than expected in the first quarter amid a rise in wages and benefits, confirming the surge in inflation early in the year that will likely delay a much- anticipated interest rate cut later this year.

The pick-up in labor costs reported by the Labor Department on Tuesday was despite signs of some easing in labor market conditions as supply rises.

Adding to the darkening inflation picture, house prices accelerated in February amid tight supply.

Housing has been a key driver of inflation through higher rents.

Federal Reserve officials started a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

The U.S. central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since July.

"On balance, today's (labor costs) reading is not the end of the world for the Fed, but it is yet another data point that suggests the inflation slowdown that began this time last year stalled out in the first quarter of 2024," said Michael Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

The Employment Cost Index (ECI), the broadest measure of labor costs, increased 1.2% last quarter after rising by 0.9% in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the ECI would advance 1.0%.

Labor costs increased 4.2% on a year-on-year basis after rising by the same margin in the fourth quarter.

They have declined from a peak of 5.1% at the end of 2022.

Some economists blamed the quarterly rise in wages on challenges adjusting the data at the start of the year for seasonal fluctuations.

The ECI is viewed by policymakers as one of the better measures of labor market slack and a predictor of core inflation because it adjusts for composition and job-quality changes.

The report followed data last week that showed price pressures heating up in the first quarter.

The Fed has raised the policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022.

Financial markets have pushed back expectations of a rate cut this year to September from June.

A handful of economists continue to expect that borrowing costs may be lowered in July in the belief that the labor market will slow noticeably in the coming months.

Others believe the window for the Fed to start its easing cycle is closing.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.

U.S. Treasury prices fell.

EYES ON PRODUCTIVITY DATA

Wages increased 1.1% in the January-March quarter after advancing by the same margin in the prior three months.

They jumped 4.4% year-on-year after rising 4.3% in the fourth quarter.

Private sector wages rose 1.1% after gaining 1.0% in the prior quarter.

They gained 4.3% in the 12 months through March.

Wage gains remain above their pre-pandemic levels.

There were big increases in wages in the transportation and warehousing industry, professional and business services, wholesale trade, educational services.

Retail wages were unchanged as were those in the finance and insurance sector.

Annual compensation costs increased 5.3% for union workers and were up 3.9% for non-union workers.

Wages and salaries for union workers shot up 6.3% compared to the 4.1% rise for non-union workers in the 12 months through March.

State and local government wages accelerated 1.4% after rising 1.1% in the prior quarter.

They surged 5.0% year-on-year after gaining 4.7% in the fourth quarter.

With fewer workers quitting their jobs in search of greener pastures and increasing labor supply, driven by a rise in immigration over the past year, economists expect wages to gradually trend lower this year and bring inflation closer to the Fed's 2% target.

Though job growth accelerated in the first quarter, surveys including from the NFIB and Institute for Supply Management suggest a moderation ahead.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey on Tuesday showed households soured a bit on the labor market in March.

The survey's labor market's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, narrowed to 25.3 in April from 29.5 in March.

Some economists also anticipated the so-called residual seasonality, which they say boosted labor costs last quarter to fade.

Others argued that worker productivity, which has quickened since the second quarter of 2023, would be key.

Productivity, however, appears to have decelerated in the first quarter based on last week's gross domestic product report.

First-quarter productivity data is due to be published on Thursday.

"The growth rate of productivity is important in assessing how fast employment costs can increase without putting upward pressure on inflation or downward pressure on profit margins," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital.

"But if GDP is depressed by residual seasonality in the first quarter, then productivity will likely be as well and thus the increase in unit labor costs will be overstated."

Inflation-adjusted wages for all workers increased 0.9% year-on-year after rising 1.0% in the fourth quarter, which could help to underpin consumer spending and the overall economy.

Benefits increased 1.1% after gaining 0.7% in the October-December quarter.

They advanced 3.7% year-on-year.

Another report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed house prices rebounded 1.2% in February after dipping 0.1% in January.

They vaulted 7.0% year-on-year, the most since November 2022, after advancing 6.5% in January.

A fourth report from the Census Bureau showed there were 728,000 houses for sale in the first quarter compared to 665,000 in the first three months of 2023.

"It is clearer than ever that there is a massive housing shortage in the country," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

"Home prices are going to keep inflation higher for longer."

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-l ... 024-04-30/
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"AMD AI chip revenue forecast fails to impress, shares dive 7%"


By Arsheeya Bajwa and Max A. Cherney

April 30, 2024

April 30 (Reuters) - Advanced Micro Devices issued a forecast on Tuesday for its artificial intelligence chips that failed to impress investors, and its shares slumped about 7% in extended trading.

In the earnings call, Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said AMD now expected AI chip sales of roughly $4 billion for 2024, an increase of $500 million from its prior estimate for the year.

The increase of a half billion dollars was not enough to meet Wall Street's lofty expectations for AI chips.

Nvidia has consistently crushed investor expectations because of soaring AI chip sales.

Enterprises rushing to adopt generative AI have prioritized spending on AI server chips, hitting demand for traditional server semiconductors, which constitute a large portion of AMD's revenue.

These processors cannot effectively handle the complex tasks associated with AI.

While some of AMD's central processors (CPUs) are used in conjunction with AI chips, the ratio is skewed in favor of more advanced AI processors versus CPUs.

AMD trails front-runner Nvidia, which commands a share of about 80% in the booming market for artificial intelligence server semiconductors.

On an adjusted basis, AMD forecast gross margin of about 53% for the second quarter, just beating the estimate of 52.9%.

Revenue at its data center business jumped 80% to $2.3 billion.

Analysts had expected revenue growth from AMD's MI300 series of AI processors to offset weakness in the traditional server market.

Uncertain demand from the gaming market has further hurt AMD.

Personal computing and console gaming revenue growth is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels through 2026, according to research firm Newzoo.

Gaming revenue fell 48% to $922 million.

The company had forecast significant double-digit percentage declines in this segment as revenue from the chips it designs for gaming consoles such as Microsoft's Xbox and the Sony PlayStation 5 has already hit its peak.

This year, 2024, marks the fifth year of the gaming cycle, CFO Jean Xu had said in January.

AMD's videogame console revenue peaks after roughly four years.

Revenue from the embedded segment fell 46% to $846 million compared with the year-ago quarter.

The company had said in January demand for the segment will remain soft through the first half of the year.

Ongoing inventory corrections have hit revenue from this segment as clients clear out a build-up of chips.

The company forecast revenue of about $5.70 billion, plus or minus $300 million, for the second quarter, in line with analysts' average estimate, according to LSEG data.

AMD reported revenue of $5.47 billion for the first quarter, compared to analysts' average estimate of $5.46 billion.

AMD reported per-share earnings of 62 cents, adjusted for stock-based compensation, among other items.

Analysts expected adjusted earnings of 61 cents a share.

Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru and Max A. Cherney in San Francisco; Editing by Pooja Desai and David Gregorio

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chip ... 024-04-30/
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

THE CAPE CHARLES MIRROR APRIL 30, 2024 AT 5:12 PM

Paul R Plante, NYSPE says:

To understand what is going on here some 476.2 miles to the north of Cape Charles when I say I am embroiled in a controversy splitting my small community, it must first be understood that this particular controversy is a direct outcome of what happens when BIDEN INFRASTRUCTURE MONEY is mindlessly made available to small towns like mine for alleged “infrastructure” improvements, in this case allegedly providing municipal water to a school that already has its own water supply, which controversy dividing the community in this case involving what I would say is a CLASSIC TEXTBOOK CASE of blatant TAXPAYER FRAUD with these two WIIA grants, one to put something in, the other to tear that something back out and replace it with something else again, which project is going to reap that class of persons I call GRANT GRIFTERS (con artists: someone who swindles people out of money through fraud; as in “I see these consultants as grifters who prey upon people”) as is the case here, a minimum of $395,000 for “engineering,” plus $140,000 for what they call “construction observation,” with another $100,000 for what they are calling “legal/administrative” costs, plus $60,000 for what they call “geotechnical,” $65,000 for “survey and mapping,” and $7,500 for “environmental,” whatever in fact that might be, so all in all a nice paycheck for the consultants, who have an inside political track as middlemen for these state and federal grants, which is why these small towns use them, or perhaps more properly, why these GRANT GRIFTERS use these small towns as an excuse to tap into more state and federal money, no questions asked and EVERYBODY involved is very happy, while the taxpayers footing the bills are getting royally screwed with no voice whatsoever in the matter, period, as how these grants are obtained is a totally closed process, and to get their hands on what they consider “free money” these GRANT GRIFTERS are promising them, in this case a windfall of riches into their pockets courtesy of the federal government in Washington, D.C. to the tune of $670,367 from Joe Biden and $1,693,000 from Kirsten Gillibrand to tear out what was paid for by a $90,000 WIIA grant in May of 2023, the town board has to promise to put their local taxpayers in hock for a certain percentage of the project cost, whether those taxpayers want or need the project, in this case a public water supply for a school that already has a public water supply, without we who are the taxpayers having any say in the matter, period, largely because, as was said above, the process of actually getting that money, being entirely political in nature, is going on behind closed doors with absolutely no transparency for the affected taxpayers of whom I am one.

As to HOW the community is being split, this following article from a local newsletter I started in imitation of the Cape Charles Mirror, given I have no other voice in my small community, where to be an “anti” is to be a pariah and an “outsider,” notwithstanding I have lived there for over 70 years now, gives a good understanding of where this matter has escalated to in the last so many days. to wit:

POESTENKILL CLARION, CHRONICLE & GAZETTE

Dedicated to the protection and preservation of intellectual liberty in Poestenkill

April 29th 2024 Edition

THE WATER DISTRICT NO 2 FLIM-FLAM – AN INCREDIBLE WASTE OF TAXPAYER MONEY AND HOW ‘SLIPPERY TOM’ SAVED LABERGE’S BACON

So, as we concerned taxpayers can clearly see here, what Poestenkill and Laberge are pushing for with their bush-league, amateur hour scam on the taxpayers in order to put some huge coin in Laberge’s pockets at taxpayer expense is an incredible, irresponsible and deliberate waste of taxpayer dollars, because there already has been one $90,000 WIIA grant made in May of 2023 to install granular activated carbon vessels for PFAS treatment at the Algonquin Middle School, and what Laberge and Poestenkill are trying to get with this water district no. 2 FLIM-FLAM of theirs is a second $2,314,299 WIIA grant for Poestenkill to take the brand-new carbon filters paid for by the first WIIA grant and toss them in the garbage, scrap them, and instead replace them with Troy water paid for by the second WIIA grant and the people of Poestenkill.

As to the very skillful map scam Democrat Poestenkill supervisor Tom Russell is pulling on us here with his water district no. 2 FLIM-FLAM, as the Democrat plays every dirty, slippery, oily, slimy political trick in his extensive arsenal developed, honed and polished during his time as Keith Hammond’s Poestenkill planning board chairman in his bid to be a hero in the eyes of his masters the Laberge Group, from whom the Democrat takes his marching orders, as was made incandescently clear to all on April 3, 2024 at the so-called “water district no. 2 information hearing” at the Poestenkill fire house, where no record of the proceeding was made, there is a good shot of the bogus map with no title block being called water district no. 2 by Laberge and the Poestenkill town board at 26:37 in the Youtube video of the April 25, 2024 water district no. 2 comic opera farce, which farce one would expect to encounter in the pages of National Lampoon, not in real life, said farce conducted by “Slippery Tom” Russell, an honorific (a title expressing high status and respect) awarded to the Democrat by those in Poestenkill qualified to render such judgments, and that is high praise indeed awarded there for Mr. Russel’s stellar performance of both knowledge of and proficiency at the venerable art and science of SLIMEBALL and GUTTER politics as a Laberge shill that evening: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8r1X3GYZE8 , begins at 27.30.

As to that bogus “map” and what caused Poestenkill councilman Burzesi, like myself and Ronald Laberge a licensed professional engineer in New York subject to Section 29 of the Rules of the NY Board of Regents which make it clear as glass to each of us that unprofessional conduct in the practice of professional engineering shall include conduct in the practice of the profession which evidences moral unfitness to practice the profession, and/or being associated in a professional capacity with any project or practice known to the licensee to be fraudulent or dishonest in character, rules I am accused of taking far too seriously in Poestenkill, where “fast and loose” are the order of the day, unless you are the Shuhart’s, to run squealing to the supervisor about the need to stifle and thwart me at the April 25, 2024 FARCE the Democrat called a “public hearing” by not allowing me to question Laberge, which should have happened in a legitimate public hearing, on Tue, April 23, 2024 @ 1:58 PM, I sent the following e-mail to councilman Burzesi, to wit:

I don’t know about you, Frank, because each of us has to set their own moral compass here in a town where feeding off the taxpayers isn’t a crime and dishonesty is not a federal offence, but I have called out this Laberge for being dishonest (at the May 11, 2023 public hearing), and I intend to do so again Thursday night, and I am going to question him about the specific meaning of the language in his engineering certification of 29 August 2022, what exactly was it that he was certifying, did his certification include the map he had taken pains to put in his report?

And I am going to ask the town board to clarify exactly what it was they were listing as an unlisted action in September of 2022 and then gave a neg. dec. to.

And Frank, seriously, and I am speaking as a town resident, both you and Tom Russell have absolutely no claim whatsoever to ignorance here as to what is going on with this MAP SCAM.

Tom Russell was planning board chairman responsible for administering DUE PROCESS and the town code, plus he was the town’s chief SEQRA compliance officer, so he can’t say he has no idea what is going on here.

You were zoning board chairman responsible for INTERPRETING the town code, and you also administered SEQRA.

So how come you think you can slide by me this tall tale or outright lie that the map referred in the hearing notice for the May 11, 2023 hearing as having been accepted by the Poestenkill town board in AUGUST of 2022 is that map of a segment presented at the May 11, 2023 hearing, and again by the town at the April 3, 2024 hearing?

Do you honestly think I am that stupid so as to actually believe that falsehood?

Would be silly on your part, Frank, if you were foolish enough to make that mistake because Keith Hammond told you I was a RETARD and you believed him.

http://www.capecharlesmirror.com/paul-p ... ent-923292
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

CNBC

"Fed keeps rates steady as it notes ‘lack of further progress’ on inflation"


Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

PUBLISHED WED, MAY 1 2024

KEY POINTS

* The Federal Reserve held its ground on interest rates, again deciding not to cut as it continues a battle with inflation that has grown more difficult lately.

* The federal funds rate has been between 5.25%-5.50% since July 2023, when the Fed last hiked and took the range to its highest level in more than two decades.

* “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the Fed’s statement said.


WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its ground on interest rates, again deciding not to cut as it continues a battle with inflation that has grown more difficult lately.

In a widely expected move, the U.S. central bank kept its benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.50%.

The federal funds rate has been at that level since July 2023, when the Fed last hiked and took the range to its highest level in more than two decades.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee did vote to ease the pace at which it is reducing bond holdings on the central bank’s mammoth balance sheet, in what could be viewed as an incremental loosening of monetary policy.

With its decision to hold the line on rates, the committee in its post-meeting statement noted a “lack of further progress” in getting inflation back down to its 2% target.

“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the statement said, reiterating language it had used after the January and March meetings.

The statement also altered its characterization of its progress toward its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment.

The new language hedges a bit, saying the risks of achieving both “have moved toward better balance over the past year.”

Previous statements said the risks “are moving into better balance.”

Beyond that, the statement was little changed, with economic growth characterized as moving at “a solid pace,” amid “strong” job gains and “low” unemployment.

Chair Jerome Powell during the news conference following the decision expanded on the idea that prices are still rising too quickly.

“Inflation is still too high,” he said.

“Further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain.”

However, investors were pleased by Powell’s comment that Fed’s next move was “unlikely” to be a rate hike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped after the remarks, and rose as much as 500 points.

He also stressed the need for the committee to make its decisions “meeting by meeting.”

On the balance sheet, the committee said that beginning in June it will slow the pace at which it is allowing maturing bond proceeds to roll off without reinvesting them.

‘Quantitative tightening’

In a program begun in June 2022 and nicknamed “quantitative tightening,” the Fed had been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month.

The process has resulted in the central bank balance sheet to come down to about $7.4 trillion, or $1.5 trillion less than its peak around mid-2022.

Under the new plan, the Fed will reduce the monthly cap on Treasurys to $25 billion from $60 billion.

That would put the annual reduction in holdings at $300 billion, compared with $720 billion from when the program began in June 2022.

The potential mortgage roll-off would be unchanged at $25 billion a month, a level that has only been hit on rare occasions.

QT was one way the Fed used to tighten conditions after inflation surged, as it backed away from its role of assuring the flow of liquidity through the financial system by buying and holding large amounts of Treasury and agency debt.

The reduction of the balance sheet roll-off, then, can be seen as a slight easing measure.

The funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds into many other consumer debt products.

The Fed uses interest rates to control the flow of money, with the intent that higher rates will dampen demand and thus help reduce prices.

However, consumers have continued to spend, running up credit indebtedness and decreasing savings levels as stubbornly high prices eat away at household finances.

Powell has repeatedly cited the pernicious effects of inflation, particularly for those at the lower-income levels.

Prices off peak levels

Though price increases are well off their peak in mid-2022, most data so far in 2024 has shown that inflation is holding well above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

The central bank’s main gauge shows inflation running at a 2.7% annual rate – 2.8% when excluding food and energy in the critical core measure that the Fed especially focuses on as a signal for longer-term trends.

At the same time, gross domestic product grew at a less-than-expected 1.6% annualized pace in the first quarter, raising concerns over the potential for stagflation with high inflation and slow growth.

Most recently, the Labor Department’s employment cost index this week posted its biggest quarterly increase in a year, sending another jolt to financial markets.

Consequently, traders have had to reprice their expectations for rates in a dramatic fashion.

Where the year started with markets pricing in at least six interest rate cuts that were supposed to have started in March, the outlook now is for just one, and likely not coming until near the end of the year.

Fed officials have shown near unanimity in their calls for patience on easing monetary policy as they look for confirmation that inflation is heading comfortably back to target.

One or two officials even have mentioned the possibility of a rate increase should the data not cooperate.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was the first to specifically say he only expects one rate cut this year, likely in the fourth quarter.

In March, FOMC members penciled in three rate cuts this year, assuming quarter percentage point intervals, and won’t get a chance to update that call until the June 11-12 meeting.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-rat ... 2024-.html
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"Chipmaker Wolfspeed forecasts quarterly revenue below estimates as EV sales growth slows"


By Reuters

May 1, 2024

May 1 (Reuters) - Chipmaker Wolfspeed forecast current-quarter revenue below estimates on Wednesday as automakers grapple with high inventory levels due to slower-than-expected EV sales growth.

Shares of the company, which counts General Motors and Mercedes-Benz among its customers, fell about 4% in extended trading.

Wolfspeed makes chips out of silicon carbide, a more energy-efficient material than standard silicon for tasks such as transmitting power from an electric car's batteries to its motors.

EV demand has been growing at a slower-than-expected pace, attributed to high interest rates that lead to chip inventory build-ups at the automakers' factories.

The company said it expects fourth-quarter revenue between $185 million and $215 million, compared with analysts' estimate of $225.8 million, according to LSEG data.

"While the industrial and energy end markets pose short-term headwinds to our results, we firmly believe in the strength of our long-term prospects as the electrification of all things continues across a broad set of applications," CEO Gregg Lowe said in a statement.

Tesla reported a drop in quarterly deliveries in the first quarter of 2024, as it expects "notably slower" growth this year since automakers have pivoted to produce and sell more gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles.

Wolfspeed reported March-quarter revenue of $200.7 million, compared with estimates of $201.1 million, while net loss widened to $1.18 per share from 80 cents per share a year earlier.

Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chip ... 024-05-01/
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"Fed leaves rates unchanged, flags 'lack of further progress' on inflation"


By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir

May 1, 2024

Summary

* Policy rate remains in 5.25%-5.50% range

* Fed policymakers concerned by recent inflation data

* Markets take 'dovish' view of Fed chief's remarks


WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and signaled it is still leaning towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs, but put a red flag on recent disappointing inflation readings that could make those rate cuts a while in coming.

Indeed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that after starting 2024 with three months of faster-than-expected price increases, it "will take longer than previously expected" for policymakers to become comfortable that inflation will resume the decline towards 2% that had cheered them through much of last year.

That steady progress has stalled for now, and while Powell said rate increases remained unlikely, he set the stage for a potentially extended hold of the benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range that has been in place since July.

U.S. central bankers still believe the current policy rate is putting enough pressure on economic activity to bring inflation under control, Powell said, and they would be content to wait as long as needed for that to become apparent - even if inflation is simply "moving sideways" in the meantime.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure - the personal consumption expenditures price index - increased at a 2.7% annual rate in March, an acceleration from the prior month.

"Inflation is still too high," Powell said in a press conference after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day policy meeting.

"Further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain."
Powell said his forecast remained for inflation to fall over the course of the year, but that "my confidence in that is lower than it was."

Whether there are rate cuts this year or not remains in doubt.

"If we did have a path where inflation proves more persistent than expected, and where the labor market remains strong but inflation is moving sideways and we're not gaining greater confidence, well, that would be a case in which it could be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts," Powell said.

"There are paths to not cutting and there are paths to cutting."

"It's really going to depend on the data."

Despite the uncertainty of the current economic moment, Powell's characterization of rate hikes as "unlikely" cheered investors concerned about a newly hawkish Fed chief.

U.S. stock and bond prices turned higher as Powell preached patience that may delay rate cuts, but also means a high bar for any more hikes.

The Fed raised its benchmark policy rate by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to curb a surge in inflation.

Powell's remarks on Wednesday were "notably less hawkish than many feared," said analysts at Evercore ISI.

"The basic message was that cuts have been delayed, not derailed."

Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate increased bets that rate cuts could begin in September rather than later in the year as reflected in earlier market pricing.

BALANCE SHEET

The Fed's latest policy statement kept key elements of its economic assessment and policy guidance intact, noting that "inflation has eased" over the past year, and framing its discussion of interest rates around the conditions under which borrowing costs can be lowered.

"The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%," the Fed repeated in its unanimously-approved statement.

That continues to leave the timing of any rate cut in doubt, and Fed officials made emphatic their concern that the first months of 2024 have done little to help the cause.

"In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress towards the Committee's 2% inflation objective," the Fed said in its statement.

The U.S. central bank also announced it will scale back the pace at which it is shrinking its balance sheet starting on June 1, allowing only $25 billion in Treasury bonds to run off each month versus the current $60 billion.

Mortgage-backed securities will continue to run off by up to $35 billion monthly.

The step is meant to ensure the financial system does not run short of reserves, as happened in 2019 during the Fed's last round of "quantitative tightening."

While the move could loosen financial conditions at the margin at a time when the U.S. central bank is trying to keep pressure on the economy, policymakers insist their balance sheet and interest rate tools serve different ends.

The Fed maintained its overall assessment of economic growth, saying that the economy "continued to expand at a solid pace."

"Job gains have remained strong and the unemployment rate has remained low."

Powell reconciled that with the relatively weak, 1.6% growth of gross domestic product in the first quarter by saying that the 3.1% increase in private domestic demand was a better gauge of where the economy stands, with output buttressed by a recent jump in immigration.

Asked about the risk the U.S. was entering a period of "stagflation" with stagnant growth and rising prices, Powell said current conditions are nothing like those seen in the late 1970s when prices were rising more than 10% annually at one point alongside high unemployment.

"Right now we have ... pretty solid growth ..."

"We have inflation running under 3%," Powell said.

"I don't see the 'stag' and I don't see the 'flation.'"

Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael S. Derby and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-b ... 024-05-01/
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"US job openings slide to three-year low as demand for labor gradually eases"


By Lucia Mutikani

May 1, 2024

Summary

* Job openings fall 325,000 to 8.488 million in March

* Quits drop 198,000 to 3.329 million

* Layoffs decrease 155,000 to 1.526 million

* Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.2 in April; prices paid up


WASHINGTON, May 1(Reuters) - U.S. job openings fell to a three-year low in March, while the number of people quitting their jobs declined, signs of easing labor market conditions that over time could aid the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department on Wednesday was, however, tempered somewhat by other data showing a measure of prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials jumped to the highest level in nearly two years in April as commodity prices increased.

Falling goods prices were the major driver of the moderation in inflation last year.

With price pressures picking up in the first quarter, the surge in input costs is unwelcome news.

Fed officials on Wednesday kept the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since July.

Policymakers signaled they were still leaning towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs, but put a red flag on recent disappointing inflation readings.

The Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022.

Financial markets have pushed back the expected timing of a rate cut this year to September from June.

"Continued cooling in the labor market is part of the Fed's plan to help return inflation to 2%, with job openings serving as one of the Fed's barometers," said Mark Streiber, an economic analyst at FHN Financial.

"While it is too early to say that the easy goods disinflation we experienced in 2023 is over, upward pressure on goods is an unwelcome development for the Fed."

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, were down 325,000 to 8.488 million on the last day of March, the lowest level since February 2021, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

Data for February was revised slightly higher to show 8.813 million unfilled positions instead of the previously reported 8.756 million.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 8.686 million job openings.

Vacancies peaked at a record 12.182 million in March 2022.

There were 1.32 job openings for every unemployed person, down from 1.36 in February.

This ratio averaged 1.19 in 2019, indicating the labor market is gradually cooling.

March's decline in job openings was led by construction, with 182,000 fewer unfilled positions.

Vacancies decreased by 158,000 in finance and insurance.

But job openings rose by 68,000 in state and local government education.

The decrease in job postings was concentrated in the West and Midwest.

There were also fewer open positions in the South, which has experienced robust employment growth.

Job postings increased in the Northeast.

Demand for labor dropped considerably among small businesses with one to nine employees and establishments with 50 to 249 workers.

Small businesses have accounted for much of the increase in hiring following the pandemic.

Declining vacancies led some economists to anticipate a sharp slowdown in overall job growth in the second quarter.

The job openings rate fell to 5.1%, the lowest since January 2021, from 5.3% in February.

Employment is, however, expected to remain positive this year, keeping the economic expansion on track.

Stocks on Wall Street pared losses following the Fed's rate decision.

The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies.

U.S. Treasury prices rose.

MANUFACTURING FALTERS

Hiring dropped 281,000 to 5.500 million in March and the hires rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in February.

Layoffs decreased 155,000, the most in nearly a year, to 1.526 million.

That was the lowest level since December 2022, pointing to a solid labor market.

Low layoffs have accounted for solid job growth.

"Companies have shifted their focus from addressing staffing shortages by aggressively recruiting new workers to more proactively retaining the workers they have," said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

The number of people quitting their jobs dropped 198,000 to 3.329 million in March, the lowest level since January 2021.

The decline in resignations was concentrated in trade, transportation and utilities, as well as other services.

The quits rate, viewed as a measure of labor market confidence, slipped to 2.1%, which was the lowest since August 2020 and followed 2.2% in February.

It soothed fears of a resurgence in wage growth after labor costs surged in the first quarter.

Nonetheless the outlook for inflation remains challenging.

A survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed its measure of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs shot up to 60.9 in April, the highest reading since June 2022, from 55.8 in March.

That partly reflected higher oil prices.

The overall ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2 last month from 50.3 in March, which was the highest and first reading above 50 since September 2022.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.4% of the economy.

"Oil prices have since returned to levels from the end of March, though they are likely to remain supported by resilient global demand as the outlook for China and the U.S. improves," said Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-p ... 024-05-01/
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"US Treasury keeps auction sizes unchanged through July, launches buyback"


By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

May 1, 2024

Summary

* U.S. Treasury 1st buyback since 2002 set for May 29

* U.S. auction sizes in line with forecasts

*U.S. quarterly refunding at $125 bln in May to July quarter

* U.S. auction sizes could rise again by mid-2025 - analyst


NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - The Treasury Department said on Wednesday it intends to keep auction sizes steady for U.S. notes and bonds over the next several quarters, in line with expectations, as it announced total refunding of $125 billion for the May to July quarter.

The quarterly refunding is aimed at raising new cash of $17.2 billion from private investors.


It also launched its buyback program, with the first scheduled on May 29.

The Treasury's last regular buyback program began in the early 2000s and ended in April 2002.

In a statement, the Treasury said it would sell $58 billion in U.S. three-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds next week.

The decision to keep auction sizes unchanged for the most part was based on current projected borrowing needs.

Since August, the Treasury has noted that it has significantly raised issuance sizes for nominal coupon and floating rate note securities.

"The auction sizes were unchanged as expected, but the key here is that this a pause in increases not a reversal," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

"The Treasury very clearly said they don't anticipate increasing auction sizes at least for the next several quarters."

"But they're still talking about an increase, not a decrease."

"Our view is that by mid-2025, Treasury may have to start increasing auction sizes again."


The Treasury said it plans to address seasonal or unexpected changes in borrowing needs over the next quarter through changes in regular bill auction sizes and cash management bills.

In terms of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), the Treasury said it intends to keep "incremental increases" to their auction sizes to maintain a stable share of TIPS as a percentage of total marketable debt outstanding.

In the May to July quarter, the Treasury plans to keep the 10-year TIPS reopening auction size at $16 billion for May, increase the June 5-year TIPS reopening size by $1 billion to $21 billion, and raise the 10-year TIPS new issue size by $1 billion to $19 billion for July.

As for Treasury bills, the Treasury said it expects to increase the four-, six- and eight-week bill auction sizes in the coming days to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet one-week cash needs around the end of May.

Ahead of the non-withheld and corporate tax filing date on June 15, the Treasury expects to undertake modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during early to mid-June.

For July, it anticipates returning short-dated bill auction sizes to levels at or near the highs from February and March.

'LIQUIDITY SUPPORT' BUYBACKS

Under the buyback program, the Treasury said it plans to hold weekly "liquidity support" buybacks of up to $2 billion per operation in nominal coupon securities, and up to $500 million per operation in TIPS.

Buybacks are similar to other government outlays, said Josh Frost, the Treasury's assistant secretary for Financial Markets, in a press briefing after the refunding announcement.

"Unlike other outlays, these ... actually extinguish marketable debt."

At an International Swaps and Derivatives Association conference in September, Frost had said debt buybacks can help improve liquidity in the bond market by providing a regular opportunity for market participants to sell back to Treasury off-the-run securities, which are older and less liquid, across the yield curve.


No cash management buybacks have been planned for the May to July 2024 quarter.

Those buybacks could begin later in 2024 depending on fiscal flows and market conditions.

The Treasury said it intends to announce a tentative buyback schedule at each quarterly refunding.

On a proposal from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) to find ways to reduce borrowing costs and expand the investor base, Frost said this was a periodic request by the Treasury to the group.

TBAC's proposal "is best viewed through the lens of exploratory in nature, without recommendations coming out of it."

"There may be future work in the future, but at this point it was largely exploratory," he said.

The Treasury also announced plans to change the regular six-week cash management bills into a benchmark bill, as part of regular weekly bill issuance schedule going forward, based on the recommendation of primary dealers and TBAC.

Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by David Lawder in Washington; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Alexandra Hudson and Richard Chang

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-t ... 024-05-01/
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"US construction spending falls in March"


By Reuters

May 1, 2024

WASHINGTON, May 1(Reuters) - U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in March likely as a resurgence in mortgage rates weighed on homebuilding, but activity remains supported by an acute housing shortage.

The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday that construction spending slipped 0.2% after being unchanged in February.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending gaining 0.3%.

Construction spending increased 9.6% year-on-year in March.

Spending on private construction projects decreased 0.5% in March after rising 0.2% in February.

Investment in residential construction dropped 0.7% after increasing 0.7% in the prior month.

Outlays on new single-family construction projects fell 0.2%.

Census Department data on Tuesday showed there were 728,000 housing units for sale in the first quarter compared to 665,000 in the first three months of 2023.

Supply is below the 1.145 million units before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Residential investment grew at its fastest pace in more than three years in the first quarter, contributing to the economy's 1.6% annualized expansion pace.

Higher borrowing costs, however, are an obstacle.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has jumped to a five-month high of 7.17%, latest data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.

Outlays on multi-family housing projects dropped 0.6% in March.

Spending on private non-residential structures like factories fell 0.2%.

There were decreases in spending on hotels and motels, churches and power stations.


They more than offset gains in amusement and recreation facilities as well as manufacturing, office space and education facilities.

Spending on structures contracted in the first quarter for the first time in more than a year as the boost from policies by the Biden administration to bring the production of semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States faded.

Investment in public construction projects increased 0.8% after falling 0.4% in February.

State and local government spending rose 0.6% and outlays on federal government projects surged 3.6%.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-c ... 024-05-01/
thelivyjr
Site Admin
Posts: 74898
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:40 p

Re: POLITICS

Post by thelivyjr »

REUTERS

"US manufacturing sector regresses in April; prices paid near two-year high"


By Reuters

May 1, 2024

WASHINGTON, May 1(Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing contracted in April amid a decline in orders after briefly expanding in the prior month, while a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs approached a two-year high.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday that its manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2 last month from 50.3 in March, which was the highest and first reading above 50 since September 2022.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.4% of the economy.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI little changed at 50.

Manufacturing is being constrained by higher borrowing costs and spending shifting back to services and away from goods.

Spending on goods fell in the first quarter.

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index decreased to 49.1 from 51.4 in March.

Output at factories slowed, with the production sub-index slipping to 51.3 after jumping to 54.6 in the prior month.

Despite weakening demand, inflation at the factory gate continued to heat up, suggesting that goods price disinflation could be close to running its course.


Falling goods prices were the major driver of the moderation in inflation last year.

The survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers shot up to 60.9, the highest reading since June 2022, from 55.8 in March.

With price pressures picking up in the first quarter, the surge in input costs is unlikely to be welcomed by Federal Reserve officials as they wrap up their two-day policy meeting.

Policy makers are on Wednesday expected to leave the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since July.

They have raised the policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022.

Financial markets have pushed back expectations of a rate cut this year to September from June.

A handful of economists continue to expect that borrowing costs may be lowered in July in the belief that the labor market will slow noticeably in the coming months.

Others see the window closing for the Fed to start its easing cycle.

Input prices are rising even as delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturers has improved significantly, though the ISM noted in March that "some suppliers are struggling to keep up."

The survey's measure of supplier deliveries fell to 48.9 from 49.9 in March.

A reading below 50 indicates faster deliveries.

Factory employment continued to contract, but the pace is slowing.

The survey's measure of manufacturing employment increased to 48.6 from 47.4 in March.

This measure has, however, not been useful in predicting manufacturing payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report.

Manufacturing employment has been little changed this year.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-m ... 024-05-01/
Post Reply