REUTERS
"Double-digit U.S. home price growth streak skids to an end"
By Dan Burns
December 27, 2022
Dec 27 (Reuters) - Annual price growth in the increasingly fragile U.S. housing market slid into the single digits in October for the first time in about two years when mortgage rates that month surged above 7% and further stifled demand, a pair of closely watched surveys showed on Tuesday.
The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index increased by 9.2% in October, down from 10.7% in September and notching the first single-digit gain since November 2020.
Meanwhile the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees U.S. mortgage-finance entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said annual home price growth slowed to 9.8% in October from 11.1% in September, marking that index's first non-double-digit gain since September 2020.
On a month-over-month basis, S&P Case Shiller's index fell for a fourth straight month, while FHFA's gauge was unchanged.
"As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices," Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a statement.
The housing market has suffered the most visible effects of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by undercutting demand in the economy.
This month the Fed raised rates again by half a percentage point, capping a year that saw its benchmark rate shoot from near zero in March to between 4.25% and 4.5% now - the swiftest rates have risen since the early 1980s.
Fed officials projected rates would climb further in 2023, likely topping 5%.
Unlike other parts of the economy - many of which have yet to show a significant impact from the Fed's actions - the housing market reacts in near real-time to the jump in borrowing costs engineered by the central bank.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate breached 7% in October for the first time since 2002, more than doubling in the span of nine months, pulling the rug out from what had been a red-hot housing market fueled by historically low borrowing costs and a rush to the suburbs during the coronavirus pandemic.
Data last week showed the combined annual sales rates of new and existing homes through November had slumped by 35% since January - among the fastest falls on record - to the slowest since late 2011.
New single-family housing starts and permit issuance skidded to a two-and-a-half-year low last month as well.
While mortgage rates have retreated since early November to around 6.3% this month, according to data from Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association, they remain nearly twice the level they were a year ago at this time and will continue to weigh on the housing sector.
Economists do not, however, see a repeat of the housing price crash witnessed in the financial crisis when prices by S&P Case Shiller's measure fell year-over-year for a full five years from March 2007 through April 2012.
Unlike then, the supply of homes on the market remains extraordinarily limited and should keep a floor under house prices.
The National Association of Realtors earlier this month projected prices for existing homes - by far the largest part of the market - should remain more or less flat in 2023.
"As the Fed tightens financial conditions, the housing market will likely slow further in the coming year," LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach said.
"However, low inventory of homes available for sale should soften the impact from rising rates and insulate the residential market from a redux of the Great Financial Crisis."
Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/doub ... 022-12-27/
THE HOUSING MARKET
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November"
Reuters
December 28, 2022
Dec 28 (Reuters) - Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes fell far more than expected in November, diving for a sixth straight month in the latest indication of the hefty toll the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are taking on the housing market as the central bank seeks to curb inflation.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 4% to 73.9 last month from October's downwardly revised 77.0.
November's was the lowest reading - aside from the shortlived drop in the early months of the pandemic - since NAR launched the index in 2001.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would fall 0.8%.
Pending home sales dropped 37.8% in November on a year-on-year basis.
"Pending home sales recorded the second-lowest monthly reading in 20 years as interest rates, which climbed at one of the fastest paces on record this year, drastically cut into the number of contract signings to buy a home," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
"Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity."
Contracts declined in all four regions, led by a 7.9% drop in the Northeast.
All four regions also recorded double-digit declines on a year-over-year basis, with contract signings in the West down by 45.7%, by far the largest regional drop.
"The Midwest region — with relatively affordable home prices — has held up better, while the unaffordable West region suffered the largest decline in activity," Yun said.
The overall decline in signed contracts suggested that existing home sales would continue to fall after posting their 10th straight monthly decrease in November.
The housing market has suffered the most visible effects of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by undercutting demand in the economy.
By the Fed's preferred measure, inflation is still running nearly three times its 2% goal, having risen earlier in 2022 at its fastest pace in 40 years.
This month the Fed raised rates again by half a percentage point, capping a year that saw its benchmark rate shoot from near zero in March to between 4.25% and 4.5% now - the swiftest rates have risen since the early 1980s.
Fed officials projected rates would climb further in 2023, likely topping 5%.
Unlike other parts of the economy - many of which have yet to show a significant impact from the Fed's actions - the housing market has reacted in near real-time to the jump in borrowing costs engineered by the central bank.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate breached 7% in October for the first time since 2002, more than doubling in the span of nine months.
This pulled the rug out from what had been a red-hot housing market fueled by historically low borrowing costs and a rush to the suburbs during the coronavirus pandemic.
Data last week showed the combined annual sales rates of new and existing homes through November had slumped by 35% since January - among the fastest falls on record - to the slowest since late 2011.
New single-family housing starts and permit issuance skidded to a two-and-a-half-year low last month as well.
Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-p ... 022-12-28/
"U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November"
Reuters
December 28, 2022
Dec 28 (Reuters) - Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes fell far more than expected in November, diving for a sixth straight month in the latest indication of the hefty toll the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are taking on the housing market as the central bank seeks to curb inflation.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 4% to 73.9 last month from October's downwardly revised 77.0.
November's was the lowest reading - aside from the shortlived drop in the early months of the pandemic - since NAR launched the index in 2001.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would fall 0.8%.
Pending home sales dropped 37.8% in November on a year-on-year basis.
"Pending home sales recorded the second-lowest monthly reading in 20 years as interest rates, which climbed at one of the fastest paces on record this year, drastically cut into the number of contract signings to buy a home," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
"Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity."
Contracts declined in all four regions, led by a 7.9% drop in the Northeast.
All four regions also recorded double-digit declines on a year-over-year basis, with contract signings in the West down by 45.7%, by far the largest regional drop.
"The Midwest region — with relatively affordable home prices — has held up better, while the unaffordable West region suffered the largest decline in activity," Yun said.
The overall decline in signed contracts suggested that existing home sales would continue to fall after posting their 10th straight monthly decrease in November.
The housing market has suffered the most visible effects of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by undercutting demand in the economy.
By the Fed's preferred measure, inflation is still running nearly three times its 2% goal, having risen earlier in 2022 at its fastest pace in 40 years.
This month the Fed raised rates again by half a percentage point, capping a year that saw its benchmark rate shoot from near zero in March to between 4.25% and 4.5% now - the swiftest rates have risen since the early 1980s.
Fed officials projected rates would climb further in 2023, likely topping 5%.
Unlike other parts of the economy - many of which have yet to show a significant impact from the Fed's actions - the housing market has reacted in near real-time to the jump in borrowing costs engineered by the central bank.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate breached 7% in October for the first time since 2002, more than doubling in the span of nine months.
This pulled the rug out from what had been a red-hot housing market fueled by historically low borrowing costs and a rush to the suburbs during the coronavirus pandemic.
Data last week showed the combined annual sales rates of new and existing homes through November had slumped by 35% since January - among the fastest falls on record - to the slowest since late 2011.
New single-family housing starts and permit issuance skidded to a two-and-a-half-year low last month as well.
Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-p ... 022-12-28/
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"U.S. labor market still tight; housing mired in recession"
By Lucia Mutikani
January 19, 2023
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims fall 15,000 to 190,000
* Continuing claims increase 17,000 to 1.647 million
* Single-family housing starts rise 11.3%; permits fall 6.5%
WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to another month of solid job growth and continued labor market tightness despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool demand for workers.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday likely does not change expectations that the U.S. central bank will further scale back the size of its interest rate increases next month.
It, however, poured cold water on financial market hopes that the Fed would pause its fastest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s, which had been fanned by a slump in retail sales in December and a retreat in inflation.
"It is a frustrating reminder for the Fed that the labor market remains tight as employers hold onto workers," said Matthew Martin, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
"We don't expect a spike in initial jobless claims even as the economy slows."
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 190,000 for the week ended Jan. 14, the lowest level since September.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 214,000 claims for the latest week.
Part of the third straight weekly drop in claims likely reflected continuing challenges in adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations at the start of the year.
But through the seasonal volatility, claims have remained at levels consistent with a tight labor market even as layoffs have accelerated in the technology industry and interest rate-sensitive sectors like finance and housing.
Unadjusted claims dropped by 53,582 to 285,575 last week.
There was a jump in claims for California, which were estimated, likely reflecting disruptions caused by recent severe weather in the state.
That was offset by sizeable declines in Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, New York and Texas.
Microsoft Corp said on Wednesday it would eliminate 10,000 jobs, joining cloud-computing rival Amazon.com, which is pushing ahead with a plan to lay off 18,000 employees.
Economists cautioned against reading the technology layoffs as flagging a deterioration in labor market conditions, arguing that these companies were right-sizing after over-hiring during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The tech sector is just getting back to where they were in 2020 or 2021, which I don't think is a bad situation," said John Blevins, a guest lecturer at Cornell University's SC Johnson College of Business.
"It's still a huge workforce."
Outside the technology industry, economists say companies are generally reluctant to send workers home after difficulties finding labor during the pandemic.
They expect companies to cut back on hiring before resorting to layoffs.
Indeed, the Fed's latest "Beige Book" report on Wednesday showed that "many firms hesitated to lay off employees even as demand for their goods and services slowed and planned to reduce headcount through attrition if needed."
Stocks on Wall Street fell.
The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury yields rose.
MANUFACTURING SUBDUED
The Fed last year raised its policy rate by 425 basis points from near zero to the current 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007.
In December, it projected at least an additional 75 basis points of hikes in borrowing costs by the end of 2023.
Financial markets have priced in a 25-basis point rate increase at the Fed's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
The claims data released on Thursday covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of January's employment report.
Claims decreased between the December and January survey weeks.
The economy added 223,000 jobs in December.
Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, will shed more light on employment growth in January.
In the week ending Jan. 7, the so-called continuing claims rose 17,000 to 1.647 million, the claims report showed.
That suggests some unemployed could be experiencing difficulties finding work.
While the labor market continues to defy expectations, recession risks are rising.
A separate report from the Commerce Department on Thursday showed single-family homebuilding rebounded in December, but permits for future construction dropped to more than a 2-1/2-year low, pointing to weakness ahead as tighter monetary policy strangles the housing market.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 909,000 units last month, the highest level since August.
Starts for housing projects with five units or more tumbled 18.9% to a rate of 463,000 units.
Single-family homebuilding increased in the Northeast, South and West, but fell in the Midwest.
Overall housing starts decreased 1.4% to a rate of 1.382 million units last month.
Homebuilding fell 3.0% in 2022.
Single-family building permits declined 6.5% to a rate of 730,000 units, the lowest level since April 2020.
Outside the pandemic plunge, these permits were the lowest since February 2016.
Building permits for housing projects with five units or more increased 7.1% to a rate of 555,000 units.
Though the single-family homebuilding backlog decreased to the lowest level since March 2021, the completions rate fell sharply.
The inventory of single-family housing under construction rose modestly.
Residential investment likely contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter, which would be the longest such stretch since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered the Great Recession.
News on manufacturing was equally gloomy.
A survey from the Philadelphia Fed showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region remaining depressed this month.
It added to reports this week showing manufacturing in New York state plunging in January to levels last seen in May 2020, and national factory production posting its biggest drop in nearly two years in December.
"The increasingly darkening cloud of weakening economic data has a silver lining, a persistently strong labor market," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers in Miami.
Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 023-01-19/
"U.S. labor market still tight; housing mired in recession"
By Lucia Mutikani
January 19, 2023
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims fall 15,000 to 190,000
* Continuing claims increase 17,000 to 1.647 million
* Single-family housing starts rise 11.3%; permits fall 6.5%
WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to another month of solid job growth and continued labor market tightness despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool demand for workers.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday likely does not change expectations that the U.S. central bank will further scale back the size of its interest rate increases next month.
It, however, poured cold water on financial market hopes that the Fed would pause its fastest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s, which had been fanned by a slump in retail sales in December and a retreat in inflation.
"It is a frustrating reminder for the Fed that the labor market remains tight as employers hold onto workers," said Matthew Martin, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
"We don't expect a spike in initial jobless claims even as the economy slows."
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 190,000 for the week ended Jan. 14, the lowest level since September.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 214,000 claims for the latest week.
Part of the third straight weekly drop in claims likely reflected continuing challenges in adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations at the start of the year.
But through the seasonal volatility, claims have remained at levels consistent with a tight labor market even as layoffs have accelerated in the technology industry and interest rate-sensitive sectors like finance and housing.
Unadjusted claims dropped by 53,582 to 285,575 last week.
There was a jump in claims for California, which were estimated, likely reflecting disruptions caused by recent severe weather in the state.
That was offset by sizeable declines in Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, New York and Texas.
Microsoft Corp said on Wednesday it would eliminate 10,000 jobs, joining cloud-computing rival Amazon.com, which is pushing ahead with a plan to lay off 18,000 employees.
Economists cautioned against reading the technology layoffs as flagging a deterioration in labor market conditions, arguing that these companies were right-sizing after over-hiring during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The tech sector is just getting back to where they were in 2020 or 2021, which I don't think is a bad situation," said John Blevins, a guest lecturer at Cornell University's SC Johnson College of Business.
"It's still a huge workforce."
Outside the technology industry, economists say companies are generally reluctant to send workers home after difficulties finding labor during the pandemic.
They expect companies to cut back on hiring before resorting to layoffs.
Indeed, the Fed's latest "Beige Book" report on Wednesday showed that "many firms hesitated to lay off employees even as demand for their goods and services slowed and planned to reduce headcount through attrition if needed."
Stocks on Wall Street fell.
The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury yields rose.
MANUFACTURING SUBDUED
The Fed last year raised its policy rate by 425 basis points from near zero to the current 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007.
In December, it projected at least an additional 75 basis points of hikes in borrowing costs by the end of 2023.
Financial markets have priced in a 25-basis point rate increase at the Fed's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
The claims data released on Thursday covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of January's employment report.
Claims decreased between the December and January survey weeks.
The economy added 223,000 jobs in December.
Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, will shed more light on employment growth in January.
In the week ending Jan. 7, the so-called continuing claims rose 17,000 to 1.647 million, the claims report showed.
That suggests some unemployed could be experiencing difficulties finding work.
While the labor market continues to defy expectations, recession risks are rising.
A separate report from the Commerce Department on Thursday showed single-family homebuilding rebounded in December, but permits for future construction dropped to more than a 2-1/2-year low, pointing to weakness ahead as tighter monetary policy strangles the housing market.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 909,000 units last month, the highest level since August.
Starts for housing projects with five units or more tumbled 18.9% to a rate of 463,000 units.
Single-family homebuilding increased in the Northeast, South and West, but fell in the Midwest.
Overall housing starts decreased 1.4% to a rate of 1.382 million units last month.
Homebuilding fell 3.0% in 2022.
Single-family building permits declined 6.5% to a rate of 730,000 units, the lowest level since April 2020.
Outside the pandemic plunge, these permits were the lowest since February 2016.
Building permits for housing projects with five units or more increased 7.1% to a rate of 555,000 units.
Though the single-family homebuilding backlog decreased to the lowest level since March 2021, the completions rate fell sharply.
The inventory of single-family housing under construction rose modestly.
Residential investment likely contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter, which would be the longest such stretch since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered the Great Recession.
News on manufacturing was equally gloomy.
A survey from the Philadelphia Fed showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region remaining depressed this month.
It added to reports this week showing manufacturing in New York state plunging in January to levels last seen in May 2020, and national factory production posting its biggest drop in nearly two years in December.
"The increasingly darkening cloud of weakening economic data has a silver lining, a persistently strong labor market," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers in Miami.
Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 023-01-19/
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"U.S. home sales slump to 12-year low; glimmers of hope emerging"
By Lucia Mutikani
January 20, 2023
Summary
* Existing home sales drop 1.5% in December
* Sales fall 17.8% in 2022, sharpest annual decline since 2008
* Median house price rises 2.3% from year ago
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales plunged to a 12-year low in December, but declining mortgage rates raised cautious optimism that the embattled housing market could be close to finding a floor.
The report from the National Association of Realtors on Friday also showed the median house price increasing at the slowest pace since early in the COVID-19 pandemic as sellers in some parts of the country resorted to offering discounts.
The Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s has pushed housing into recession.
"Existing home sales are somewhat lagging," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
"The decline in mortgage rates could help undergird housing activity in the months ahead."
Existing home sales, which are counted when a contract is closed, fell 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units last month, the lowest level since November 2010.
That marked the 11th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales dropped in the Northeast, South and Midwest.
They were unchanged in the West.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales falling to a rate of 3.96 million units.
December's data likely reflected contracts signed some two months earlier.
Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, tumbled 34.0% on a year-on-year basis in December.
They fell 17.8% to 5.03 million units in 2022, the lowest annual total since 2014 and the sharpest annual decline since 2008.
The continued slump in sales, which meant less in broker commissions, was the latest indication that residential investment probably contracted in the fourth quarter, the seventh straight quarterly decline.
This would be the longest such streak since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered the Great Recession.
While a survey from the National Association of Home Builders this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders improving in January, morale remained depressed.
Single-family homebuilding rebounded in December, but permits for future construction dropped to more than a 2-1/2- year low, and outside the pandemic plunge, they were the lowest since February 2016.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
MORTGAGE RATES RETREATING
The worst of the housing market rout is, however, probably behind.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate retreated to an average 6.15% this week, the lowest level since mid-September, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
The rate was down from 6.33% in the prior week and has declined from an average of 7.08% early in the fourth quarter, which was the highest since 2002.
It, however, remains well above the 3.56% average during the same period last year.
The median existing house price increased 2.3% from a year earlier to $366,900 in December, with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noting that "markets in roughly half of the country are likely to offer potential buyers discounted prices compared to last year."
The smallest price gain since May 2020, together with the pullback in mortgage rates, could help to improve affordability down the road, though much would depend on supply.
Applications for loans to buy a home have increased so far this year, a sign that there are eager buyers waiting in the wings.
House prices increased 10.2% in 2022, boosted by an acute shortage of homes for sale.
Housing inventory totaled 970,000 units last year.
While that was an increase from the 880,000 units in 2021, supply was the second lowest on record.
"Home price growth is likely to continue to decelerate and we look for it to turn negative in 2023," said Nancy Vanden Houten, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
"The limited supply of homes for sale will prevent a steep decline."
In December, there were 970,000 previously owned homes on the market, down 13.4% from November but up 10.2% from a year ago.
At December's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 1.7 months a year ago.
That is considerably lower than the 9.6 months of supply at the start of the 2007-2009 recession.
Though tight inventory remains an obstacle for buyers, the absence of excess supply means the housing market is unlikely to experience the dramatic collapse witnessed during the Great Recession.
A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Properties typically remained on the market for 26 days last month, up from 24 days in November.
Fifty-seven percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales, up from 30% a year ago.
All-cash sales made up 28% of transactions compared to 23% a year ago.
Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales were only 1% of sales in December.
"While the stabilization of affordability will be good news for potential home buyers, a lack of available inventory could remain a constraint for home buying activity," said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-e ... 023-01-20/
"U.S. home sales slump to 12-year low; glimmers of hope emerging"
By Lucia Mutikani
January 20, 2023
Summary
* Existing home sales drop 1.5% in December
* Sales fall 17.8% in 2022, sharpest annual decline since 2008
* Median house price rises 2.3% from year ago
WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales plunged to a 12-year low in December, but declining mortgage rates raised cautious optimism that the embattled housing market could be close to finding a floor.
The report from the National Association of Realtors on Friday also showed the median house price increasing at the slowest pace since early in the COVID-19 pandemic as sellers in some parts of the country resorted to offering discounts.
The Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s has pushed housing into recession.
"Existing home sales are somewhat lagging," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
"The decline in mortgage rates could help undergird housing activity in the months ahead."
Existing home sales, which are counted when a contract is closed, fell 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units last month, the lowest level since November 2010.
That marked the 11th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales dropped in the Northeast, South and Midwest.
They were unchanged in the West.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales falling to a rate of 3.96 million units.
December's data likely reflected contracts signed some two months earlier.
Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, tumbled 34.0% on a year-on-year basis in December.
They fell 17.8% to 5.03 million units in 2022, the lowest annual total since 2014 and the sharpest annual decline since 2008.
The continued slump in sales, which meant less in broker commissions, was the latest indication that residential investment probably contracted in the fourth quarter, the seventh straight quarterly decline.
This would be the longest such streak since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered the Great Recession.
While a survey from the National Association of Home Builders this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders improving in January, morale remained depressed.
Single-family homebuilding rebounded in December, but permits for future construction dropped to more than a 2-1/2- year low, and outside the pandemic plunge, they were the lowest since February 2016.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
MORTGAGE RATES RETREATING
The worst of the housing market rout is, however, probably behind.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate retreated to an average 6.15% this week, the lowest level since mid-September, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
The rate was down from 6.33% in the prior week and has declined from an average of 7.08% early in the fourth quarter, which was the highest since 2002.
It, however, remains well above the 3.56% average during the same period last year.
The median existing house price increased 2.3% from a year earlier to $366,900 in December, with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noting that "markets in roughly half of the country are likely to offer potential buyers discounted prices compared to last year."
The smallest price gain since May 2020, together with the pullback in mortgage rates, could help to improve affordability down the road, though much would depend on supply.
Applications for loans to buy a home have increased so far this year, a sign that there are eager buyers waiting in the wings.
House prices increased 10.2% in 2022, boosted by an acute shortage of homes for sale.
Housing inventory totaled 970,000 units last year.
While that was an increase from the 880,000 units in 2021, supply was the second lowest on record.
"Home price growth is likely to continue to decelerate and we look for it to turn negative in 2023," said Nancy Vanden Houten, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
"The limited supply of homes for sale will prevent a steep decline."
In December, there were 970,000 previously owned homes on the market, down 13.4% from November but up 10.2% from a year ago.
At December's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 1.7 months a year ago.
That is considerably lower than the 9.6 months of supply at the start of the 2007-2009 recession.
Though tight inventory remains an obstacle for buyers, the absence of excess supply means the housing market is unlikely to experience the dramatic collapse witnessed during the Great Recession.
A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Properties typically remained on the market for 26 days last month, up from 24 days in November.
Fifty-seven percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales, up from 30% a year ago.
All-cash sales made up 28% of transactions compared to 23% a year ago.
Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales were only 1% of sales in December.
"While the stabilization of affordability will be good news for potential home buyers, a lack of available inventory could remain a constraint for home buying activity," said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-e ... 023-01-20/
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"U.S. single-family housing starts, building permits tumble in January"
Reuters
February 16, 2023
WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding fell in January, but an easing in mortgage rates and improvement in homebuilder confidence suggested the recession-hit housing market was close to finding a floor.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 841,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.
Single-family homebuilding tumbled 27.3% on a year-on-year basis in January.
Last month, single-family homebuilding plunged in the Northeast and West, with the latter likely depressed by flooding in California.
Starts rose in the densely populated South as well as the Midwest.
Higher mortgage rates have pushed the housing market into recession.
There are, however, signs that the worst of the housing market downturn is over.
The sector has been the biggest causality of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging just above 6%, a sharp retreat from the average of 7.08% in early November, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
A survey on Wednesday showed confidence among homebuilders surged to a five-month high in February, though it remained at depressed levels.
The rise in sentiment was the largest since June 2013.
Starts for housing projects with five units or more fell 5.4% to a rate of 457,000 units.
Multi-family housing construction remains underpinned by demand for rental accommodation.
With both single- and multi-family homebuilding declining, overall housing starts dropped 4.5% to a rate of 1.309 million units last month, the lowest level since June 2020.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would fall to a rate of 1.360 million units in December.
Starts declined 21.4% on a year-on-year basis.
Single-family building permits dropped 1.8% to a rate of 718,000 units, while those for housing projects with five units or more rose 0.5% to a rate of 563,000 units.
Overall, building permits gained 0.1% to a rate of 1.339 million units.
The number of houses approved for construction that are yet to be started increased 0.7% to 291,000 units.
The single-family homebuilding backlog decreased 4.3% to 132,000 units, but the completions rate for this segment increased 4.4% to a rate of 1.040 million units.
The inventory of single-family housing under construction fell 1.1% to a rate of 752,000 units.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-sin ... 023-02-16/
"U.S. single-family housing starts, building permits tumble in January"
Reuters
February 16, 2023
WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding fell in January, but an easing in mortgage rates and improvement in homebuilder confidence suggested the recession-hit housing market was close to finding a floor.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 841,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.
Single-family homebuilding tumbled 27.3% on a year-on-year basis in January.
Last month, single-family homebuilding plunged in the Northeast and West, with the latter likely depressed by flooding in California.
Starts rose in the densely populated South as well as the Midwest.
Higher mortgage rates have pushed the housing market into recession.
There are, however, signs that the worst of the housing market downturn is over.
The sector has been the biggest causality of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging just above 6%, a sharp retreat from the average of 7.08% in early November, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
A survey on Wednesday showed confidence among homebuilders surged to a five-month high in February, though it remained at depressed levels.
The rise in sentiment was the largest since June 2013.
Starts for housing projects with five units or more fell 5.4% to a rate of 457,000 units.
Multi-family housing construction remains underpinned by demand for rental accommodation.
With both single- and multi-family homebuilding declining, overall housing starts dropped 4.5% to a rate of 1.309 million units last month, the lowest level since June 2020.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would fall to a rate of 1.360 million units in December.
Starts declined 21.4% on a year-on-year basis.
Single-family building permits dropped 1.8% to a rate of 718,000 units, while those for housing projects with five units or more rose 0.5% to a rate of 563,000 units.
Overall, building permits gained 0.1% to a rate of 1.339 million units.
The number of houses approved for construction that are yet to be started increased 0.7% to 291,000 units.
The single-family homebuilding backlog decreased 4.3% to 132,000 units, but the completions rate for this segment increased 4.4% to a rate of 1.040 million units.
The inventory of single-family housing under construction fell 1.1% to a rate of 752,000 units.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-sin ... 023-02-16/
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
"Existing-Home Sales Descended 0.7% in January"
February 21, 2023
Media Contact: Troy Green 202-383-1042
Key Highlights
* Existing-home sales waned for the twelfth consecutive month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million. Sales slipped 0.7% from December 2022 and 36.9% from the previous year.
* The median existing-home sales price increased 1.3% from one year ago to $359,000.
* The inventory of unsold existing homes grew from the prior month to 980,000 at the end of January, or the equivalent of 2.9 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
WASHINGTON (February 21, 2023) – Existing-home sales fell for the twelfth straight month in January, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Month-over-month sales were mixed among the four major U.S. regions, as the South and West registered increases, while the East and Midwest experienced declines.
All regions recorded year-over-year declines.
Total existing-home sales, https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 0.7% from December 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January.
Year-over-year, sales retreated 36.9% (down from 6.34 million in January 2022).
“Home sales are bottoming out,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines.”
Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 980,000 units, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from one year ago (850,000).
Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from December but up from 1.6 months in January 2022.
“Inventory remains low, but buyers are beginning to have better negotiating power,” Yun added.
“Homes sitting on the market for more than 60 days can be purchased for around 10% less than the original list price.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $359,000, an increase of 1.3% from January 2022 ($354,300), as prices climbed in three out of four U.S. regions while falling in the West.
This marks 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days in January, up from 26 days in December and 19 days in January 2022.
Fifty-four percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in January, identical to December but up from 27% in January 2022.
NAR’s 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in November 20224 – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 26%, the lowest since NAR began tracking the data.
All-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions in January, up from 28% in December and 27% in January 2022.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in January, unchanged from December but down from 22% in January 2022.
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in January, identical to last month and one year ago.
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% as of February 16.
That’s up from 6.12% from the previous week and 3.92% one year ago.
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.59 million in January, down 0.8% from 3.62 million in December and 36.1% from one year ago.
The median existing single-family home price was $363,100 in January, up 0.7% from January 2022.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 410,000 units in January, unchanged from December but down 43.1% from the previous year.
The median existing condo price was $320,000 in January, an annual increase of 5.2%.
Regional Breakdown
Existing-home sales in the Northeast retracted 3.8% from December to an annual rate of 500,000 in January, down 35.9% from January 2022.
The median price in the Northeast was $383,000, up 0.3% from the previous year.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales slid 5.0% from the previous month to an annual rate of 960,000 in January, declining 33.3% from one year ago.
The median price in the Midwest was $252,300, up 2.7% from January 2022.
Existing-home sales in the South rose 1.1% in January from December to an annual rate of 1.82 million, a 36.6% decrease from the prior year.
The median price in the South was $332,500, an increase of 3.4% from one year ago.
In the West, existing-home sales elevated 2.9% in January to an annual rate of 720,000, down 42.4% from the previous year.
The median price in the West was $525,200, down 4.6% from January 2022.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existi ... in-january
"Existing-Home Sales Descended 0.7% in January"
February 21, 2023
Media Contact: Troy Green 202-383-1042
Key Highlights
* Existing-home sales waned for the twelfth consecutive month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million. Sales slipped 0.7% from December 2022 and 36.9% from the previous year.
* The median existing-home sales price increased 1.3% from one year ago to $359,000.
* The inventory of unsold existing homes grew from the prior month to 980,000 at the end of January, or the equivalent of 2.9 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
WASHINGTON (February 21, 2023) – Existing-home sales fell for the twelfth straight month in January, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Month-over-month sales were mixed among the four major U.S. regions, as the South and West registered increases, while the East and Midwest experienced declines.
All regions recorded year-over-year declines.
Total existing-home sales, https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 0.7% from December 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January.
Year-over-year, sales retreated 36.9% (down from 6.34 million in January 2022).
“Home sales are bottoming out,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines.”
Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 980,000 units, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from one year ago (850,000).
Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from December but up from 1.6 months in January 2022.
“Inventory remains low, but buyers are beginning to have better negotiating power,” Yun added.
“Homes sitting on the market for more than 60 days can be purchased for around 10% less than the original list price.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $359,000, an increase of 1.3% from January 2022 ($354,300), as prices climbed in three out of four U.S. regions while falling in the West.
This marks 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days in January, up from 26 days in December and 19 days in January 2022.
Fifty-four percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in January, identical to December but up from 27% in January 2022.
NAR’s 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in November 20224 – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 26%, the lowest since NAR began tracking the data.
All-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions in January, up from 28% in December and 27% in January 2022.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in January, unchanged from December but down from 22% in January 2022.
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in January, identical to last month and one year ago.
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% as of February 16.
That’s up from 6.12% from the previous week and 3.92% one year ago.
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.59 million in January, down 0.8% from 3.62 million in December and 36.1% from one year ago.
The median existing single-family home price was $363,100 in January, up 0.7% from January 2022.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 410,000 units in January, unchanged from December but down 43.1% from the previous year.
The median existing condo price was $320,000 in January, an annual increase of 5.2%.
Regional Breakdown
Existing-home sales in the Northeast retracted 3.8% from December to an annual rate of 500,000 in January, down 35.9% from January 2022.
The median price in the Northeast was $383,000, up 0.3% from the previous year.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales slid 5.0% from the previous month to an annual rate of 960,000 in January, declining 33.3% from one year ago.
The median price in the Midwest was $252,300, up 2.7% from January 2022.
Existing-home sales in the South rose 1.1% in January from December to an annual rate of 1.82 million, a 36.6% decrease from the prior year.
The median price in the South was $332,500, an increase of 3.4% from one year ago.
In the West, existing-home sales elevated 2.9% in January to an annual rate of 720,000, down 42.4% from the previous year.
The median price in the West was $525,200, down 4.6% from January 2022.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existi ... in-january
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"U.S. home sales post 12th straight monthly drop; house price inflation slows"
By Lucia Mutikani
February 21, 2023
Summary
* Existing home sales fall 0.7% in January
* Median house price rises 1.3% to $359,000 from year ago
* Supply increases 15.3% year-on-year to 980,000 units
* Business activity rebounds in February
WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.
The report from the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday also showed the smallest increase in annual house prices since 2012, which should help to improve affordability.
It will, however, be a while before the housing market turns the corner.
Mortgage rates have resumed their upward trend after robust retail sales and labor market data as well as strong monthly inflation readings raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate hiking campaign through summer.
"The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough," said Sam Hall, property economist at Capital Economics.
"But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will recover only gradually this year."
Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, when the nation was grappling with the foreclosure crisis.
That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest, likely because of harsh weather, but rose in the South and West.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising to a rate of 4.10 million units.
Home resales, which account for the biggest share of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January.
The housing market has been the biggest casualty of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Residential investment has contracted for seven straight quarters, the longest such stretch since 2009.
Government data last week showed single-family homebuilding and permits for future home construction declining in January.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to an average 6.32% last week from 6.12% the prior week, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
The second straight weekly increase reflected a spike in U.S. Treasury yields.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower.
The dollar rose against basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
HOPEFUL SIGNS
But there are some rays of hope.
Homebuilders confidence rose to a five-month high in February, though morale remains depressed.
The median existing house price increased 1.3% from a year earlier to $359,000 in January as homeowners whose properties have been on the market for a while lowered asking prices.
That was the smallest annual gain since February 2012.
Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days last month, up from 26 days in December.
"Buyers are beginning to have better negotiating power," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
"Homes sitting on the market for more than 60 days can be purchased for around 10% less than the original list price."
There were 980,000 previously owned homes on the market, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from a year ago.
But this mostly reflected homes staying on the market longer than in prior months.
New listings remained low.
At January's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes up from 1.6 months a year ago.
A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Fifty-four percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales, up from 27% a year ago.
All-cash sales made up 29% of transactions compared to 27% a year ago.
While the housing market is still searching for a floor, business activity rebounded in February, reaching its highest level in eight months, according to a survey on Tuesday.
S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 50.2 this month from a final reading of 46.8 in January.
That ended seven straight months of the index running below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction in the private sector.
The services sector accounted for the rise in business activity, while manufacturing remained weak.
Economists had forecast the index at 47.5.
The rebound in business activity fits in with the recent robust retail sales, the labor market and manufacturing production data, which have suggested solid momentum in the economy at the start of the year.
"The economy is finding its balance," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-e ... 023-02-21/
"U.S. home sales post 12th straight monthly drop; house price inflation slows"
By Lucia Mutikani
February 21, 2023
Summary
* Existing home sales fall 0.7% in January
* Median house price rises 1.3% to $359,000 from year ago
* Supply increases 15.3% year-on-year to 980,000 units
* Business activity rebounds in February
WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.
The report from the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday also showed the smallest increase in annual house prices since 2012, which should help to improve affordability.
It will, however, be a while before the housing market turns the corner.
Mortgage rates have resumed their upward trend after robust retail sales and labor market data as well as strong monthly inflation readings raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate hiking campaign through summer.
"The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough," said Sam Hall, property economist at Capital Economics.
"But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will recover only gradually this year."
Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, when the nation was grappling with the foreclosure crisis.
That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest, likely because of harsh weather, but rose in the South and West.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising to a rate of 4.10 million units.
Home resales, which account for the biggest share of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January.
The housing market has been the biggest casualty of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Residential investment has contracted for seven straight quarters, the longest such stretch since 2009.
Government data last week showed single-family homebuilding and permits for future home construction declining in January.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to an average 6.32% last week from 6.12% the prior week, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
The second straight weekly increase reflected a spike in U.S. Treasury yields.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower.
The dollar rose against basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
HOPEFUL SIGNS
But there are some rays of hope.
Homebuilders confidence rose to a five-month high in February, though morale remains depressed.
The median existing house price increased 1.3% from a year earlier to $359,000 in January as homeowners whose properties have been on the market for a while lowered asking prices.
That was the smallest annual gain since February 2012.
Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days last month, up from 26 days in December.
"Buyers are beginning to have better negotiating power," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
"Homes sitting on the market for more than 60 days can be purchased for around 10% less than the original list price."
There were 980,000 previously owned homes on the market, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from a year ago.
But this mostly reflected homes staying on the market longer than in prior months.
New listings remained low.
At January's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes up from 1.6 months a year ago.
A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Fifty-four percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales, up from 27% a year ago.
All-cash sales made up 29% of transactions compared to 27% a year ago.
While the housing market is still searching for a floor, business activity rebounded in February, reaching its highest level in eight months, according to a survey on Tuesday.
S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 50.2 this month from a final reading of 46.8 in January.
That ended seven straight months of the index running below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction in the private sector.
The services sector accounted for the rise in business activity, while manufacturing remained weak.
Economists had forecast the index at 47.5.
The rebound in business activity fits in with the recent robust retail sales, the labor market and manufacturing production data, which have suggested solid momentum in the economy at the start of the year.
"The economy is finding its balance," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-e ... 023-02-21/
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to highest level since November - MBA"
Reuters
February 22, 2023
Feb 22 (Reuters) - The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose last week to its highest since November as bond markets took fright that the Federal Reserve might have to continue tightening policy through summer to subdue inflation, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.
The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped by 23 basis points to 6.62% for the week ended Feb. 17 following stronger-than-expected retail sales and labor market data as well as still robust monthly inflation readings, which compelled investors to up their bets that the U.S. central bank will have to keep raising its policy rate through the summer.
That has caused a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, and a second straight weekly increase in mortgage rates after several weeks of declines.
The yield on the 10-year note acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates soared to more than 7% last October as the central bank raised its benchmark policy rate in 2022 at the fastest pace in 40 years, but had began to ebb after signs late last year that inflation was on the wane.
The interest-rate sensitive housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed's actions.
The renewed rise on mortgage rates caused more potential buyers to sit on the sidelines.
The MBA's Purchase Composite Index, a measure of all mortgage loan applications for purchase of a single family home, dropped 18.1% from the prior week to its lowest level since 1995.
The MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of overall mortgage loan application volume, also declined 13.3% from a week earlier.
Other housing data on Tuesday showed that U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.
Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Mark Potter
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-m ... 023-02-22/
"U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to highest level since November - MBA"
Reuters
February 22, 2023
Feb 22 (Reuters) - The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose last week to its highest since November as bond markets took fright that the Federal Reserve might have to continue tightening policy through summer to subdue inflation, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.
The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped by 23 basis points to 6.62% for the week ended Feb. 17 following stronger-than-expected retail sales and labor market data as well as still robust monthly inflation readings, which compelled investors to up their bets that the U.S. central bank will have to keep raising its policy rate through the summer.
That has caused a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, and a second straight weekly increase in mortgage rates after several weeks of declines.
The yield on the 10-year note acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates soared to more than 7% last October as the central bank raised its benchmark policy rate in 2022 at the fastest pace in 40 years, but had began to ebb after signs late last year that inflation was on the wane.
The interest-rate sensitive housing sector has borne the brunt of the Fed's actions.
The renewed rise on mortgage rates caused more potential buyers to sit on the sidelines.
The MBA's Purchase Composite Index, a measure of all mortgage loan applications for purchase of a single family home, dropped 18.1% from the prior week to its lowest level since 1995.
The MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of overall mortgage loan application volume, also declined 13.3% from a week earlier.
Other housing data on Tuesday showed that U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.
Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Mark Potter
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-m ... 023-02-22/
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"US consumer confidence retreats, house price inflation cools further"
By Lucia Mutikani
February 28, 2023
Summary
* Consumer confidence index falls to 102.9 in February
* Labor market differential rises to 41.5 from 37
* Annual house price growth slows further in December
* Goods trade deficit widens 2.0% to $91.5 bln in January
WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in February, with the decrease concentrated among lower-middle-income households, though Americans grew more upbeat about the labor market.
The survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday also showed consumers apprehensive about buying big-ticket items like motor vehicles and household appliances over the next six months.
But correlation between confidence and consumer spending has been weak.
A strong labor market has kept Americans spending despite worries about the future fueled by the Federal Reserve's stiff interest rate hikes to quell inflation.
"Households are likely cautious given inflation is still elevated and borrowing costs are rising," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York.
"But they are continuing to spend for now, owing to strong job growth that is restoring incomes."
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 102.9 this month from 106.0 in January.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would be 108.5.
The second straight monthly decline mostly reflected pessimism among consumers with annual incomes in the $35,000-$50,000 range.
There were also decreases among other income groups, with the exception of the $25,000-$34,999 income bracket.
Confidence dropped among consumers in the 35-54 age group.
Consumers expressed optimism about current economic conditions, but were becoming more fearful about the next six months.
There is no consensus on whether the economy will experience a recession this year.
Data on the labor market and consumer spending suggest the economy started 2023 on a strong note.
The broad decline in confidence is in stark contrast with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which increased to a 14-month high in February.
"We are more inclined to take signals from the University of Michigan index, particularly on the path of consumer spending in the months ahead, as it has historically been a more-reliable indicator of future consumer spending trends," said Colin Johanson, an economist at Barclays in New York.
Consumer spending increased by the most in nearly two years in January, driven by a surge in wage gains.
Spending is likely to remain supported in the months ahead, with the Conference Board survey showing the share of consumers viewing jobs as "plentiful" rising back to levels seen in the spring of 2022.
As a result, the survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, rose to 41.5, the highest in nearly a year, from 37 in January.
This measure correlates to the unemployment rate from the U.S. Labor Department.
The 3.4% jobless rate in January was the lowest in more than 53 years.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading mixed.
The dollar edged up against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
TIGHT LABOR MARKET
Labor market tightness and stubbornly high inflation have stoked fears that the Fed could continue raising interest rates into the summer.
The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver two additional 25-basis-point rate hikes in March and May.
Financial markets are betting on another increase in June.
The Fed has raised its policy rate by 450 basis points since last March from the near-zero level to a 4.50%-4.75% range.
Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 6.3% from 6.7% last month.
With price pressures still strong, fewer consumers planned big-ticket purchases and travel over the next six months.
They were also less enthusiastic about buying a home, especially with mortgage rates resuming their ascent.
Higher mortgage rates and home prices have pushed many potential buyers to the sidelines.
There are, however, signs that housing affordability is starting to gradually improve.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, increased 5.8% on a year-on-year basis in December, a separate report showed on Tuesday.
That was the smallest annual gain since mid-2020 and followed a 7.6% rise in November.
Prices increased 5.8% in 2022, pulling back from 2021's record-setting 18.9% gain.
The slowdown was centered in the West, where annual house prices rose 1.2%.
Prices fell in Francisco and Seattle, but rose moderately in Portland.
Price growth remained strong in the South, with double-digit gains in Miami, Tampa and Atlanta.
Slowing overall house price inflation was corroborated by a report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency on Tuesday showing home prices advanced 6.6% in the 12 months through December, the smallest rise since June 2020, after increasing 8.2% in November.
They increased 6.6% in 2022 compared to a gain of 18.0% in 2021.
"We expect home prices to remain under pressure this year but expect that a still-limited supply of homes for sale will cushion the downside," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
A fourth report from the Commerce Department showed the goods trade deficit widened 2.0% to $91.5 billion in January, leaving trade on track to have little or no impact on GDP growth early in the first quarter.
A smaller trade deficit was one of the contributors to the economy's 2.7% annualized growth pace in the fourth quarter.
The other boost to growth came from inventories.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in December, the Commerce Department also showed.
Stocks at retailers rose 0.3% after increasing 0.4% in December.
Growth estimates for this quarter are as high as a 2.8% rate.
"The economy's underlying trend is holding up and, if anything, modestly improving," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank in Dallas.
"The odds of a mediocre muddle-through economy in 2023 have increased over the last few months, while the odds of a more serious recession have receded."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-con ... 023-02-28/
"US consumer confidence retreats, house price inflation cools further"
By Lucia Mutikani
February 28, 2023
Summary
* Consumer confidence index falls to 102.9 in February
* Labor market differential rises to 41.5 from 37
* Annual house price growth slows further in December
* Goods trade deficit widens 2.0% to $91.5 bln in January
WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in February, with the decrease concentrated among lower-middle-income households, though Americans grew more upbeat about the labor market.
The survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday also showed consumers apprehensive about buying big-ticket items like motor vehicles and household appliances over the next six months.
But correlation between confidence and consumer spending has been weak.
A strong labor market has kept Americans spending despite worries about the future fueled by the Federal Reserve's stiff interest rate hikes to quell inflation.
"Households are likely cautious given inflation is still elevated and borrowing costs are rising," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York.
"But they are continuing to spend for now, owing to strong job growth that is restoring incomes."
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 102.9 this month from 106.0 in January.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would be 108.5.
The second straight monthly decline mostly reflected pessimism among consumers with annual incomes in the $35,000-$50,000 range.
There were also decreases among other income groups, with the exception of the $25,000-$34,999 income bracket.
Confidence dropped among consumers in the 35-54 age group.
Consumers expressed optimism about current economic conditions, but were becoming more fearful about the next six months.
There is no consensus on whether the economy will experience a recession this year.
Data on the labor market and consumer spending suggest the economy started 2023 on a strong note.
The broad decline in confidence is in stark contrast with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which increased to a 14-month high in February.
"We are more inclined to take signals from the University of Michigan index, particularly on the path of consumer spending in the months ahead, as it has historically been a more-reliable indicator of future consumer spending trends," said Colin Johanson, an economist at Barclays in New York.
Consumer spending increased by the most in nearly two years in January, driven by a surge in wage gains.
Spending is likely to remain supported in the months ahead, with the Conference Board survey showing the share of consumers viewing jobs as "plentiful" rising back to levels seen in the spring of 2022.
As a result, the survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, rose to 41.5, the highest in nearly a year, from 37 in January.
This measure correlates to the unemployment rate from the U.S. Labor Department.
The 3.4% jobless rate in January was the lowest in more than 53 years.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading mixed.
The dollar edged up against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
TIGHT LABOR MARKET
Labor market tightness and stubbornly high inflation have stoked fears that the Fed could continue raising interest rates into the summer.
The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver two additional 25-basis-point rate hikes in March and May.
Financial markets are betting on another increase in June.
The Fed has raised its policy rate by 450 basis points since last March from the near-zero level to a 4.50%-4.75% range.
Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 6.3% from 6.7% last month.
With price pressures still strong, fewer consumers planned big-ticket purchases and travel over the next six months.
They were also less enthusiastic about buying a home, especially with mortgage rates resuming their ascent.
Higher mortgage rates and home prices have pushed many potential buyers to the sidelines.
There are, however, signs that housing affordability is starting to gradually improve.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, increased 5.8% on a year-on-year basis in December, a separate report showed on Tuesday.
That was the smallest annual gain since mid-2020 and followed a 7.6% rise in November.
Prices increased 5.8% in 2022, pulling back from 2021's record-setting 18.9% gain.
The slowdown was centered in the West, where annual house prices rose 1.2%.
Prices fell in Francisco and Seattle, but rose moderately in Portland.
Price growth remained strong in the South, with double-digit gains in Miami, Tampa and Atlanta.
Slowing overall house price inflation was corroborated by a report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency on Tuesday showing home prices advanced 6.6% in the 12 months through December, the smallest rise since June 2020, after increasing 8.2% in November.
They increased 6.6% in 2022 compared to a gain of 18.0% in 2021.
"We expect home prices to remain under pressure this year but expect that a still-limited supply of homes for sale will cushion the downside," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
A fourth report from the Commerce Department showed the goods trade deficit widened 2.0% to $91.5 billion in January, leaving trade on track to have little or no impact on GDP growth early in the first quarter.
A smaller trade deficit was one of the contributors to the economy's 2.7% annualized growth pace in the fourth quarter.
The other boost to growth came from inventories.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in December, the Commerce Department also showed.
Stocks at retailers rose 0.3% after increasing 0.4% in December.
Growth estimates for this quarter are as high as a 2.8% rate.
"The economy's underlying trend is holding up and, if anything, modestly improving," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank in Dallas.
"The odds of a mediocre muddle-through economy in 2023 have increased over the last few months, while the odds of a more serious recession have receded."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-con ... 023-02-28/
Re: THE HOUSING MARKET
REUTERS
"U.S. labor market remains tight; housing market stabilizing"
By Lucia Mutikani
March 16, 2023
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims drop 20,000 to 192,000
* Continuing claims decrease 29,000 to 1.684 million
* Single-family housing starts increase 1.1% in February
* Import prices fall 0.1%; down 1.1% on year-on-year basis
WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to continued labor market strength, though financial markets turmoil is casting a shadow over the economy.
Other data on Thursday also struck a fairly upbeat note on the economy, with homebuilding surging in February, potentially setting the stage for a spring housing market revival. Imported inflation pressures were subdued last month, but regional manufacturing activity remained depressed.
The reports and rising fears of contagion in the banking sector pose a dilemma for the Federal Reserve when policymakers meet next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Economists have lowered their growth estimates for this year, citing tighter credit and financial conditions following the recent collapse of two regional banks, as well as trouble at Credit Suisse.
"The Fed has a tough balancing act ahead as it battles to restore price stability without rattling financial markets further and causing a recession," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ended March 11, the Labor Department said.
The drop was the largest since July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 205,000 claims for the latest week.
Unadjusted claims declined 21,396 to 217,444 last week.
Claims in New York tumbled 15,305, reversing the prior week's jump, which had been attributed to a mid-winter school break.
There were notable declines in filings in California, Georgia, Oregon and Minnesota, offsetting significant increases in Indiana and Ohio.
Despite job cuts by major technology companies, the labor market has remained resilient, with employers generally reluctant to lay off workers after struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Persistent labor market tightness, with 1.9 job openings for every unemployed person in January, and stubbornly high inflation support the case for the Fed to continue raising interest rates next week.
But the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York, has led some economists to urge caution.
Financial markets were on Thursday expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
They had wavered between a quarter-point rate hike and pause of the U.S. central bank's most aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s.
The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 450 basis points since last March from the near-zero level to the current 4.50%-4.75% range.
Economists expect the small banks' stress to raise the cost of funding for businesses, especially for small establishments, and tighten the availability of credit, with ripple effects on the labor market and economic growth.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months by 10 percentage points to 35%.
"We were already expecting a meaningful slowdown in growth and job gains over the coming months, and the prospect of substantial tightening in credit conditions raises the risk that a soft landing turns into a harder one," said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.
U.S. stocks rose.
The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
HOUSING STARTS REBOUND
The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 29,000 to 1.684 million during the week ending March 4.
The low so-called continuing claims suggest some laid-off workers could be easily finding new work for now.
The battered housing market could be finding a floor.
Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 830,000 units last month, the Commerce Department reported.
Single-family starts rose in the Northeast and West, but tumbled in the densely populated South and the Midwest.
Single-family homebuilding dropped 31.6% on a year-on-year basis in February.
But the worst of the housing market downturn could be over.
A survey on Wednesday showed the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased for a third straight month in March, though homebuilder sentiment remains depressed.
Mortgage rates, which had resumed their upward trend, could start falling as U.S. Treasury yields have declined sharply amid the banking sector turmoil.
"Low yields could help support housing activity into the spring season," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.
Housing starts for projects with five units or more shot up 24.1% to a rate of 608,000 units, the highest level since last April.
Multi-family housing construction remains underpinned by demand for rental accommodation, and more supply could help to lower inflation.
Overall housing starts surged 9.8% to a rate of 1.450 million units last month, the highest level since September.
Permits for single-family housing increased 7.6% to a rate of 777,000 units after declining for 11 months.
Permits for housing projects with five units or more jumped 24.3% to a rate of 700,000 units.
Overall, building permits vaulted 13.8% to a rate of 1.524 million units.
Another report from the Labor Department showed import prices slipped 0.1% last month after decreasing 0.4% in January.
In the 12 months through February, import prices dropped 1.1%, the first decline since December 2020.
But import prices outside fuels rose solidly, indicating that the fight against inflation is far from over.
Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 023-03-16/
"U.S. labor market remains tight; housing market stabilizing"
By Lucia Mutikani
March 16, 2023
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims drop 20,000 to 192,000
* Continuing claims decrease 29,000 to 1.684 million
* Single-family housing starts increase 1.1% in February
* Import prices fall 0.1%; down 1.1% on year-on-year basis
WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to continued labor market strength, though financial markets turmoil is casting a shadow over the economy.
Other data on Thursday also struck a fairly upbeat note on the economy, with homebuilding surging in February, potentially setting the stage for a spring housing market revival. Imported inflation pressures were subdued last month, but regional manufacturing activity remained depressed.
The reports and rising fears of contagion in the banking sector pose a dilemma for the Federal Reserve when policymakers meet next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Economists have lowered their growth estimates for this year, citing tighter credit and financial conditions following the recent collapse of two regional banks, as well as trouble at Credit Suisse.
"The Fed has a tough balancing act ahead as it battles to restore price stability without rattling financial markets further and causing a recession," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ended March 11, the Labor Department said.
The drop was the largest since July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 205,000 claims for the latest week.
Unadjusted claims declined 21,396 to 217,444 last week.
Claims in New York tumbled 15,305, reversing the prior week's jump, which had been attributed to a mid-winter school break.
There were notable declines in filings in California, Georgia, Oregon and Minnesota, offsetting significant increases in Indiana and Ohio.
Despite job cuts by major technology companies, the labor market has remained resilient, with employers generally reluctant to lay off workers after struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Persistent labor market tightness, with 1.9 job openings for every unemployed person in January, and stubbornly high inflation support the case for the Fed to continue raising interest rates next week.
But the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York, has led some economists to urge caution.
Financial markets were on Thursday expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
They had wavered between a quarter-point rate hike and pause of the U.S. central bank's most aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s.
The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 450 basis points since last March from the near-zero level to the current 4.50%-4.75% range.
Economists expect the small banks' stress to raise the cost of funding for businesses, especially for small establishments, and tighten the availability of credit, with ripple effects on the labor market and economic growth.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months by 10 percentage points to 35%.
"We were already expecting a meaningful slowdown in growth and job gains over the coming months, and the prospect of substantial tightening in credit conditions raises the risk that a soft landing turns into a harder one," said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.
U.S. stocks rose.
The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
HOUSING STARTS REBOUND
The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 29,000 to 1.684 million during the week ending March 4.
The low so-called continuing claims suggest some laid-off workers could be easily finding new work for now.
The battered housing market could be finding a floor.
Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 830,000 units last month, the Commerce Department reported.
Single-family starts rose in the Northeast and West, but tumbled in the densely populated South and the Midwest.
Single-family homebuilding dropped 31.6% on a year-on-year basis in February.
But the worst of the housing market downturn could be over.
A survey on Wednesday showed the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased for a third straight month in March, though homebuilder sentiment remains depressed.
Mortgage rates, which had resumed their upward trend, could start falling as U.S. Treasury yields have declined sharply amid the banking sector turmoil.
"Low yields could help support housing activity into the spring season," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.
Housing starts for projects with five units or more shot up 24.1% to a rate of 608,000 units, the highest level since last April.
Multi-family housing construction remains underpinned by demand for rental accommodation, and more supply could help to lower inflation.
Overall housing starts surged 9.8% to a rate of 1.450 million units last month, the highest level since September.
Permits for single-family housing increased 7.6% to a rate of 777,000 units after declining for 11 months.
Permits for housing projects with five units or more jumped 24.3% to a rate of 700,000 units.
Overall, building permits vaulted 13.8% to a rate of 1.524 million units.
Another report from the Labor Department showed import prices slipped 0.1% last month after decreasing 0.4% in January.
In the 12 months through February, import prices dropped 1.1%, the first decline since December 2020.
But import prices outside fuels rose solidly, indicating that the fight against inflation is far from over.
Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 023-03-16/