RIGZONE
"Oil Swings Higher Amid Mixed Data Signals"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Oil edged higher in a choppy session as traders weighed a mixed US inventory report, with algorithms exacerbating price swings.
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.8% to settle slightly below $74 a barrel after oscillating in a narrow $1 range.
Prices briefly rallied above $74 a barrel, a resistance level that triggered selling among trend-following algorithms.
Even with the swings, futures remained in the roughly $5 channel where they’ve spent most of this year as a report from the US Energy Information Administration sent the market mixed signals.
US gasoline inventories fell 3.15 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a decline and indicating stronger demand for crude.
Still, national oil inventories rose the most since November, keeping a lid on prices.
Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthi militant group said it targeted two ships in the southern Red Sea, the latest in a string of attacks that has forced a major re-routing of global trade.
The US has vowed more strikes against Iranian forces and their proxies in the region.
Crude is up about 3% this year, with the Middle East war premium and rising transport costs largely canceled out by a mixed macroeconomic outlook.
The lackluster price moves are masking a boom in oil-derivatives trading, with aggregate open interest across the main futures contracts rising to the highest since March 2022.
“It continues to remain a narrow, range-driven market for crude,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics.
“One of the biggest reasons behind the oil markets absorbing all these geopolitical risk premiums has been the silent supply growth from non-OPEC countries.”
Prices:
WTI for March delivery advanced 55 cents to settle at $73.86 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement rose 62 cents to settle at $79.21 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 2-article/
OIL, NATURAL GAS
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rallies Amid Cease Fire Uncertainty"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, February 08, 2024
Oil rallied as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s dismissal of a potential cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war triggered algorithmic buying in markets.
West Texas Intermediate rose 3.2% to top $76 a barrel in a rally partly sparked by Netanyahu’s comments that he sees “no other solution than total victory” and later extended by trend-following algorithms.
Last week, crude slumped on news of cease-fire negotiations and their potential to ease the tensions in a region that accounts for about a third of the world’s oil output.
Strikes in Iraq are increasing the chances of a broadening conflict in the Middle East — boosting energy-supply risks — and providing tailwinds for crude markets, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
At the beginning of the session, Ghali expected commodity trading advisers to increase their total buying by 30% of their maximum position.
Signs of crude’s momentum also showed further along the futures curve, with Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — strengthening to 63 cents in backwardation, the highest in three months, excluding volatile contract expiration dates.
Adding to concerns of supply disruptions, major shipping companies are warning that the security situation in the Red Sea is continuing to deteriorate.
Swaths of the merchant fleet have been avoiding the waterway since attacks by the Houthis began in mid-November.
The area grew even more volatile after the US and UK launched airstrikes in the middle of last month, prompting major owners in all sectors to avoid the region.
Restraining the price gains are apparent sluggishness in the Chinese economy and fading expectations that interest rates will be cut soon.
Volatility in options markets has been sliding, reflecting the generally lackluster trading this year, despite the barrage of geopolitical and macroeconomic headlines.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose $2.36 to settle at $76.22 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement added $2.42 to settle at $81.63 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
"Oil Rallies Amid Cease Fire Uncertainty"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, February 08, 2024
Oil rallied as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s dismissal of a potential cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war triggered algorithmic buying in markets.
West Texas Intermediate rose 3.2% to top $76 a barrel in a rally partly sparked by Netanyahu’s comments that he sees “no other solution than total victory” and later extended by trend-following algorithms.
Last week, crude slumped on news of cease-fire negotiations and their potential to ease the tensions in a region that accounts for about a third of the world’s oil output.
Strikes in Iraq are increasing the chances of a broadening conflict in the Middle East — boosting energy-supply risks — and providing tailwinds for crude markets, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
At the beginning of the session, Ghali expected commodity trading advisers to increase their total buying by 30% of their maximum position.
Signs of crude’s momentum also showed further along the futures curve, with Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — strengthening to 63 cents in backwardation, the highest in three months, excluding volatile contract expiration dates.
Adding to concerns of supply disruptions, major shipping companies are warning that the security situation in the Red Sea is continuing to deteriorate.
Swaths of the merchant fleet have been avoiding the waterway since attacks by the Houthis began in mid-November.
The area grew even more volatile after the US and UK launched airstrikes in the middle of last month, prompting major owners in all sectors to avoid the region.
Restraining the price gains are apparent sluggishness in the Chinese economy and fading expectations that interest rates will be cut soon.
Volatility in options markets has been sliding, reflecting the generally lackluster trading this year, despite the barrage of geopolitical and macroeconomic headlines.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose $2.36 to settle at $76.22 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement added $2.42 to settle at $81.63 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Posts Weekly Gain as Middle East Tensions Rise"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, February 09, 2024
Oil posted a weekly gain as prospects for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war faded and Israel prepared to attack southern Gaza, increasing crude’s geopolitical risk premium.
West Texas Intermediate settled near $76 a barrel, cementing a 6.3% weekly advance.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed a potential cease-fire and previewed a military push into southern Gaza, where more than 1 million people have sought refuge.
The military escalations injected fresh risks for crude flows in a region that accounts for about a third of the world’s oil output.
“Oil prices remain quite sensitive to the developments in the Middle East, and it appears as though nothing else matters too much,” keeping futures “volatile”, wrote Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, in a note to clients.
Technical measures have also signaled strength in the market.
In the US, the premium of gasoline over crude increased to the highest since September after nationwide inventories declined.
Traders continue to watch Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, while a fire broke out at another Russian site on Friday.
The attacks bolstered diesel futures to the highest since November and gasoil futures to the highest since October.
Heightened tensions in the major oil-producing region come as Netanyahu said he sees “no other solution than total victory,” and Iraq threatens to pull support for the American-led coalition.
Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on merchant ships have escalated throughout the week, causing major shipping companies to warn that security situation in the Red Sea continues to deteriorate.
Meanwhile in Europe, there’s been buying in a key North Sea pricing period, indicating a stronger crude market in the region.
That helped push Brent’s prompt spread — a gauge of near-term market health — to its biggest daily gain since October.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose 62 cents to settle at $76.84 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement advanced 56 cents to settle at $82.19 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 5-article/
"Oil Posts Weekly Gain as Middle East Tensions Rise"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, February 09, 2024
Oil posted a weekly gain as prospects for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war faded and Israel prepared to attack southern Gaza, increasing crude’s geopolitical risk premium.
West Texas Intermediate settled near $76 a barrel, cementing a 6.3% weekly advance.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed a potential cease-fire and previewed a military push into southern Gaza, where more than 1 million people have sought refuge.
The military escalations injected fresh risks for crude flows in a region that accounts for about a third of the world’s oil output.
“Oil prices remain quite sensitive to the developments in the Middle East, and it appears as though nothing else matters too much,” keeping futures “volatile”, wrote Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, in a note to clients.
Technical measures have also signaled strength in the market.
In the US, the premium of gasoline over crude increased to the highest since September after nationwide inventories declined.
Traders continue to watch Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, while a fire broke out at another Russian site on Friday.
The attacks bolstered diesel futures to the highest since November and gasoil futures to the highest since October.
Heightened tensions in the major oil-producing region come as Netanyahu said he sees “no other solution than total victory,” and Iraq threatens to pull support for the American-led coalition.
Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on merchant ships have escalated throughout the week, causing major shipping companies to warn that security situation in the Red Sea continues to deteriorate.
Meanwhile in Europe, there’s been buying in a key North Sea pricing period, indicating a stronger crude market in the region.
That helped push Brent’s prompt spread — a gauge of near-term market health — to its biggest daily gain since October.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose 62 cents to settle at $76.84 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement advanced 56 cents to settle at $82.19 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_p ... 5-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Shows Minimal Change on Mixed Geopolitical Signs"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
February 12, 2024
Oil was little changed as traders weighed increasing military activity in the Middle East against diplomatic efforts to alleviate the conflict.
West Texas Intermediate settled near $77 a barrel as Israel’s military conducted strikes in Gaza in the southern city of Rafah, where more than 1 million people have sought refuge.
Adding to the turmoil, Yemen’s Houthis said they attacked another ship in the Red Sea, underscoring the continued menace to vessels in the region.
Also supporting crude was declining crude production from Iraq, the second-largest producer in the OPEC+ alliance.
The better-than-expected compliance by OPEC to supply cuts contributed to Morgan Stanley raising its price forecast for Brent to $82.50 a barrel in the first quarter, up from $80.
Keeping a lid on prices were signs of progress toward a diplomatic solution to the war.
Iran foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian over the weekend discussed the potential release of Israeli hostages captured by Hamas during a meeting with the heads of Palestinian resistance groups.
Oil has traded within a band of about $10 this year as risks from the conflict in the Middle East have been partially offset by ample global supplies and a shaky demand outlook — especially in China, the second-biggest consumer.
Demand forecasts for China have additional downside risks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said in a note, citing a surge in electric-vehicle sales and conversations with local consumers.
Traders this week will be looking to monthly reports from both OPEC and the International Energy Agency for further indications of supply and demand.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery was little changed, settling at $76.92 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement edged lower 19 cents to settle at $82 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 2-article/
"Oil Shows Minimal Change on Mixed Geopolitical Signs"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
February 12, 2024
Oil was little changed as traders weighed increasing military activity in the Middle East against diplomatic efforts to alleviate the conflict.
West Texas Intermediate settled near $77 a barrel as Israel’s military conducted strikes in Gaza in the southern city of Rafah, where more than 1 million people have sought refuge.
Adding to the turmoil, Yemen’s Houthis said they attacked another ship in the Red Sea, underscoring the continued menace to vessels in the region.
Also supporting crude was declining crude production from Iraq, the second-largest producer in the OPEC+ alliance.
The better-than-expected compliance by OPEC to supply cuts contributed to Morgan Stanley raising its price forecast for Brent to $82.50 a barrel in the first quarter, up from $80.
Keeping a lid on prices were signs of progress toward a diplomatic solution to the war.
Iran foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian over the weekend discussed the potential release of Israeli hostages captured by Hamas during a meeting with the heads of Palestinian resistance groups.
Oil has traded within a band of about $10 this year as risks from the conflict in the Middle East have been partially offset by ample global supplies and a shaky demand outlook — especially in China, the second-biggest consumer.
Demand forecasts for China have additional downside risks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said in a note, citing a surge in electric-vehicle sales and conversations with local consumers.
Traders this week will be looking to monthly reports from both OPEC and the International Energy Agency for further indications of supply and demand.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery was little changed, settling at $76.92 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement edged lower 19 cents to settle at $82 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 2-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises as OPEC Forecasts Strong Global Demand"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Oil rose after a bullish demand outlook from OPEC helped crude surpass a key technical level that had served as the ceiling of this year’s narrow trading band.
West Texas Intermediate rose 1.2% to settle near $78 a barrel, pushing past its 200-day moving average of about $77.40.
With bulls also finding support from OPEC’s projections that global oil demand will continue strong growth this year, the breach above the technical threshold raises the possibility of additional upward momentum.
Oil’s gain came against a backdrop of broader risk-off sentiment after US data showed inflation remains elevated, reducing the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts.
“A rare day to see crude decouple from equities” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“Positioning, which has become increasingly important for the direction in crude, was pared down last week,” and “builds in inventories are expected this week and may temper upside.”
Earlier today, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ monthly report showed that the group’s new production cuts were only partially delivered in the first month.
The broader OPEC+ alliance plans to decide early next month whether to extend their curbs into the second quarter.
While oil has advanced this year, it’s yet to break decisively higher.
The OPEC cuts, as well as nervousness over the conflict in the Middle East and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, have largely been offset by an uncertain demand outlook and ample output from outside the group.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose 1.2% to settle at $77.87 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement advanced 0.9% to settle at $82.77 a barrel.
Meanwhile, a chunk of the vast fleet of tankers that Russia uses to deliver its crude is grinding to a halt under the weight of US sanctions, according to ship-by-ship tracking.
That’s another sign that tougher measures by Western regulators might be starting to have tangible effects on Moscow.
Traders are also parsing the International Energy Agency’s outlook for crude supply and demand.
The agency estimates that global consumption will increase by 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels a day in 2024, which will be easily matched by swelling production from the Americas.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
"Oil Rises as OPEC Forecasts Strong Global Demand"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Oil rose after a bullish demand outlook from OPEC helped crude surpass a key technical level that had served as the ceiling of this year’s narrow trading band.
West Texas Intermediate rose 1.2% to settle near $78 a barrel, pushing past its 200-day moving average of about $77.40.
With bulls also finding support from OPEC’s projections that global oil demand will continue strong growth this year, the breach above the technical threshold raises the possibility of additional upward momentum.
Oil’s gain came against a backdrop of broader risk-off sentiment after US data showed inflation remains elevated, reducing the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts.
“A rare day to see crude decouple from equities” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“Positioning, which has become increasingly important for the direction in crude, was pared down last week,” and “builds in inventories are expected this week and may temper upside.”
Earlier today, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ monthly report showed that the group’s new production cuts were only partially delivered in the first month.
The broader OPEC+ alliance plans to decide early next month whether to extend their curbs into the second quarter.
While oil has advanced this year, it’s yet to break decisively higher.
The OPEC cuts, as well as nervousness over the conflict in the Middle East and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, have largely been offset by an uncertain demand outlook and ample output from outside the group.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose 1.2% to settle at $77.87 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement advanced 0.9% to settle at $82.77 a barrel.
Meanwhile, a chunk of the vast fleet of tankers that Russia uses to deliver its crude is grinding to a halt under the weight of US sanctions, according to ship-by-ship tracking.
That’s another sign that tougher measures by Western regulators might be starting to have tangible effects on Moscow.
Traders are also parsing the International Energy Agency’s outlook for crude supply and demand.
The agency estimates that global consumption will increase by 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels a day in 2024, which will be easily matched by swelling production from the Americas.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls as US Stockpiles Grow by 12 Million Barrels"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
February 14, 2024
Oil dropped after the US reported crude inventories rose 12 million barrels last week, the most since November.
West Texas Intermediate fell 1.6% to settle below $77 a barrel, after trading in a roughly $2 range.
While the crude buildup surprised investors, falling gasoline stockpiles and surging jet fuel demand capped losses.
Jet fuel consumption on a four-week basis rose to a pre-pandemic seasonal high, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Conflicting market signals have kept oil locked in a $10 range this year.
While gauges of market volatility continue to grind lower, fuel margins are steadily improving and key timespreads are rallying, an indication of tighter supplies.
OPEC’s top official said Tuesday that global oil demand is set to expand strongly, while a monthly outlook from the group revealed limited compliance with the members’ latest round of supply cuts.
Separately, the Paris-based International Energy Agency flagged comfortable markets this year, with projected supply growth more than satisfying worldwide consumption.
In related markets, refined products have outperformed crude this year, with benchmark futures for diesel and gasoline both rising almost 10% so far in 2024.
Crude is about 7% higher this year.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery fell $1.23 to settle at $76.64 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement dropped $1.17 to settle at $81.60 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 4-article/
"Oil Falls as US Stockpiles Grow by 12 Million Barrels"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
February 14, 2024
Oil dropped after the US reported crude inventories rose 12 million barrels last week, the most since November.
West Texas Intermediate fell 1.6% to settle below $77 a barrel, after trading in a roughly $2 range.
While the crude buildup surprised investors, falling gasoline stockpiles and surging jet fuel demand capped losses.
Jet fuel consumption on a four-week basis rose to a pre-pandemic seasonal high, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Conflicting market signals have kept oil locked in a $10 range this year.
While gauges of market volatility continue to grind lower, fuel margins are steadily improving and key timespreads are rallying, an indication of tighter supplies.
OPEC’s top official said Tuesday that global oil demand is set to expand strongly, while a monthly outlook from the group revealed limited compliance with the members’ latest round of supply cuts.
Separately, the Paris-based International Energy Agency flagged comfortable markets this year, with projected supply growth more than satisfying worldwide consumption.
In related markets, refined products have outperformed crude this year, with benchmark futures for diesel and gasoline both rising almost 10% so far in 2024.
Crude is about 7% higher this year.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery fell $1.23 to settle at $76.64 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement dropped $1.17 to settle at $81.60 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 4-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises on Broader Risk On Sentiment"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Oil rose as risk-on sentiment in broader markets cajoled traders back into crude, overpowering the International Energy Agency’s forecast for slowing demand growth.
West Texas Intermediate gained 1.8% to settle above $78 a barrel, erasing Wednesday’s decline, as equities advanced and the dollar fell for a second day.
The weakening US currency, which makes the commodity cheaper for overseas buyers, encouraged money managers to buy the dip, traders said.
Earlier in the session, prices fell after the Paris-based IEA said the crude market could be in surplus all year, pointing to expanding non-OPEC+ supplies and a slowdown in consumption.
Even after the advance, crude remains in the $10 range it has been stuck in this year.
Tensions in the Middle East and efforts by OPEC+ to curb production have been countered by robust supplies from drillers outside the cartel and concerns worldwide demand growth will slow over 2024.
Another headwind has come from expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer as inflation persists.
Still, market metrics continue to signal tight conditions, with timespreads for both major benchmarks holding in a bullish, backwardated structure despite shrinking slightly.
Refiners’ profits from making fuels like diesel and gasoline also remain elevated.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose $1.39 to settle at $78.03 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement gained $1.26 to close at $82.86.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 0-article/
"Oil Rises on Broader Risk On Sentiment"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Oil rose as risk-on sentiment in broader markets cajoled traders back into crude, overpowering the International Energy Agency’s forecast for slowing demand growth.
West Texas Intermediate gained 1.8% to settle above $78 a barrel, erasing Wednesday’s decline, as equities advanced and the dollar fell for a second day.
The weakening US currency, which makes the commodity cheaper for overseas buyers, encouraged money managers to buy the dip, traders said.
Earlier in the session, prices fell after the Paris-based IEA said the crude market could be in surplus all year, pointing to expanding non-OPEC+ supplies and a slowdown in consumption.
Even after the advance, crude remains in the $10 range it has been stuck in this year.
Tensions in the Middle East and efforts by OPEC+ to curb production have been countered by robust supplies from drillers outside the cartel and concerns worldwide demand growth will slow over 2024.
Another headwind has come from expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer as inflation persists.
Still, market metrics continue to signal tight conditions, with timespreads for both major benchmarks holding in a bullish, backwardated structure despite shrinking slightly.
Refiners’ profits from making fuels like diesel and gasoline also remain elevated.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery rose $1.39 to settle at $78.03 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement gained $1.26 to close at $82.86.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 0-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Settles at Highest Price This Year"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, February 16, 2024
Oil closed at its highest settling price this year as increasing tensions in the Middle East outweighed hotter-than-expected US inflation data that’s damping the prospect of interest rate cuts.
West Texas Intermediate rose above $79 a barrel after Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said the group will escalate its fight with Israel, heightening risks in a region that accounts for about a third of the world’s oil output.
Meanwhile, wider markets struck a more cautious tone as inflation figures spurred bets that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates.
Apart from the conflict, the fundamental outlook for crude remains mixed.
The International Energy Agency said this week that oil markets could be in surplus all year as global demand growth loses steam, while OPEC sees more robust consumption and the cartel and its allies are implementing supply cuts to buttress prices.
Crude is up more than 10% this year, near the top of the range it has traded in since early November.
“Oil prices have been quite choppy this week, partly because of the dollar strength holding it back, after last week’s sizeable rally,” Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, said in a note to clients.
“All told, I think risks are skewed to the upside for oil, as there not many negative influences to impact prices.”
In the Middle East, exchanges of fire between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel intensified in a further escalation that’s raising alarm of a wider war.
Security in the Red Sea continues deteriorate as swaths of the merchant fleet have been avoiding the waterway since attacks by the Houthis began in mid-November.
Meanwhile, Russia almost reached its target for voluntary supply reductions for the first time since making the pledge last year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data for January.
Elsewhere, Iraq and Kazakhstan have pledged compliance with their targets after failing to fully cut production as promised last month.
Prices:
WTI for March rose $1.16 to settle at $79.19 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement rose 61 cents to settle at $83.47 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 7-article/
"Oil Settles at Highest Price This Year"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, February 16, 2024
Oil closed at its highest settling price this year as increasing tensions in the Middle East outweighed hotter-than-expected US inflation data that’s damping the prospect of interest rate cuts.
West Texas Intermediate rose above $79 a barrel after Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said the group will escalate its fight with Israel, heightening risks in a region that accounts for about a third of the world’s oil output.
Meanwhile, wider markets struck a more cautious tone as inflation figures spurred bets that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates.
Apart from the conflict, the fundamental outlook for crude remains mixed.
The International Energy Agency said this week that oil markets could be in surplus all year as global demand growth loses steam, while OPEC sees more robust consumption and the cartel and its allies are implementing supply cuts to buttress prices.
Crude is up more than 10% this year, near the top of the range it has traded in since early November.
“Oil prices have been quite choppy this week, partly because of the dollar strength holding it back, after last week’s sizeable rally,” Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, said in a note to clients.
“All told, I think risks are skewed to the upside for oil, as there not many negative influences to impact prices.”
In the Middle East, exchanges of fire between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel intensified in a further escalation that’s raising alarm of a wider war.
Security in the Red Sea continues deteriorate as swaths of the merchant fleet have been avoiding the waterway since attacks by the Houthis began in mid-November.
Meanwhile, Russia almost reached its target for voluntary supply reductions for the first time since making the pledge last year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data for January.
Elsewhere, Iraq and Kazakhstan have pledged compliance with their targets after failing to fully cut production as promised last month.
Prices:
WTI for March rose $1.16 to settle at $79.19 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement rose 61 cents to settle at $83.47 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_s ... 7-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls on Monetary Policy Uncertainty"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Oil fell as concerns about a longer period of elevated interest rates weighed on broader sentiment, countering signs of a tightening physical oil market.
Amid a lack of clear supply-and-demand catalysts, crude has been mirroring broader markets.
West Texas Intermediate’s more-active April contract slid almost 2% from Friday’s close as equities also retreated.
Despite the intraday decline, oil remains near the top of the range it has traded in since early November.
Increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and efforts by OPEC+ to trim output have been jostling with bearish headwinds such as weak consumption, most notably from top importer China.
However, the price difference between monthly contracts has been widening, indicating a more robust outlook in parts of the physical market.
“The market is in a bit of a wait-and-see mode for now,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Kansas-based Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC.
“The next thing traders are looking out for is what OPEC+ decides to do at their next output policy meeting.”
The group and its allies will decide in early March on whether to extend output cuts into the second quarter.
The curbs got off to a slow start in January, with data compiled by OPEC showing that Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, pumped more than its quota.
The nation will improve its compliance after completing a review of external estimates of its production, Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said in an interview in Cairo on Monday.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Red Sea continue to simmer, with the crew of a ship abandoning the vessel after the attack on Sunday evening, the first such evacuation since the Yemen-based group started targeting ships late last year.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery, which expires Tuesday, dropped 1.3% from Friday’s close to settle at $78.18 a barrel in New York.
There was no settlement on Monday due to the US holiday.
The more-active April contract fell 1.8% to settle at $77.04 a barrel.
Brent for April settlement slid 1.5% to $82.34 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 9-article/
"Oil Falls on Monetary Policy Uncertainty"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Oil fell as concerns about a longer period of elevated interest rates weighed on broader sentiment, countering signs of a tightening physical oil market.
Amid a lack of clear supply-and-demand catalysts, crude has been mirroring broader markets.
West Texas Intermediate’s more-active April contract slid almost 2% from Friday’s close as equities also retreated.
Despite the intraday decline, oil remains near the top of the range it has traded in since early November.
Increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and efforts by OPEC+ to trim output have been jostling with bearish headwinds such as weak consumption, most notably from top importer China.
However, the price difference between monthly contracts has been widening, indicating a more robust outlook in parts of the physical market.
“The market is in a bit of a wait-and-see mode for now,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Kansas-based Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC.
“The next thing traders are looking out for is what OPEC+ decides to do at their next output policy meeting.”
The group and its allies will decide in early March on whether to extend output cuts into the second quarter.
The curbs got off to a slow start in January, with data compiled by OPEC showing that Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, pumped more than its quota.
The nation will improve its compliance after completing a review of external estimates of its production, Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said in an interview in Cairo on Monday.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Red Sea continue to simmer, with the crew of a ship abandoning the vessel after the attack on Sunday evening, the first such evacuation since the Yemen-based group started targeting ships late last year.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery, which expires Tuesday, dropped 1.3% from Friday’s close to settle at $78.18 a barrel in New York.
There was no settlement on Monday due to the US holiday.
The more-active April contract fell 1.8% to settle at $77.04 a barrel.
Brent for April settlement slid 1.5% to $82.34 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 9-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Edges Up in Choppy Session"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Oil rose as traders weighed tightening physical supplies against financial markets that have remained under pressure.
Global benchmark Brent rose to settle above $83 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate climbed near $78, near the upper ends of narrow bands the prices have traded in so far this year.
The potential of restrained economic growth due to elevated interest rates has pushed traders away from risk assets, including crude, a commodity often correlated to economic demand.
Still, physical markets continue to show signs of strength amid refined-product shortages.
Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — strengthened to 95 cents in backwardation, hovering at three month highs, excluding volatile contract-expiration dates.
Oil has remained in a roughly $10 trading range this year as the push and pull of bearish and bullish factors mute volatility.
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war have ramped up tensions in the Middle East and added a geopolitical risk premium to prices.
Still, concerns about the outlook for China’s economy and its impact on consumption, as well as the pace of non-OPEC supply growth, are limiting gains.
The “oil price is expected to continue to be range-bound short term despite escalating tensions in the Middle East,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, a senior oil analyst at DNB Bank ASA.
“Continued strong non-OPEC production data, from Norway and Canada this week, combined with a soft global economic outlook counter the effect of higher Middle East tensions.”
Prices:
WTI for April delivery rose 87 cents to settle at $77.91 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement advanced 69 cents to settle at $83.03 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_e ... 6-article/
"Oil Edges Up in Choppy Session"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Oil rose as traders weighed tightening physical supplies against financial markets that have remained under pressure.
Global benchmark Brent rose to settle above $83 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate climbed near $78, near the upper ends of narrow bands the prices have traded in so far this year.
The potential of restrained economic growth due to elevated interest rates has pushed traders away from risk assets, including crude, a commodity often correlated to economic demand.
Still, physical markets continue to show signs of strength amid refined-product shortages.
Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — strengthened to 95 cents in backwardation, hovering at three month highs, excluding volatile contract-expiration dates.
Oil has remained in a roughly $10 trading range this year as the push and pull of bearish and bullish factors mute volatility.
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war have ramped up tensions in the Middle East and added a geopolitical risk premium to prices.
Still, concerns about the outlook for China’s economy and its impact on consumption, as well as the pace of non-OPEC supply growth, are limiting gains.
The “oil price is expected to continue to be range-bound short term despite escalating tensions in the Middle East,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, a senior oil analyst at DNB Bank ASA.
“Continued strong non-OPEC production data, from Norway and Canada this week, combined with a soft global economic outlook counter the effect of higher Middle East tensions.”
Prices:
WTI for April delivery rose 87 cents to settle at $77.91 a barrel in New York.
Brent for April settlement advanced 69 cents to settle at $83.03 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_e ... 6-article/