RIGZONE
"Oil Rises Signaling Stronger Underlying Physical Market"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Tuesday, January 09, 2024
Key oil-market gauges are signaling that crude’s rebound from its biggest drop in more than a month is reflecting a stronger underlying physical market, bolstering futures’ attempt to break out of their recent trading range.
The US benchmark’s prompt spread, a critical barometer for supply and demand, briefly flipped to a bullish structure known as backwardation for the first time since November.
In the options market, some traders are betting that the worst of oil’s early-year malaise may be over, with contracts that would profit from a rally above $110 in June futures changing hands in large volumes.
Despite choppy moves in recent days, crude futures have been stuck in a roughly $5 range since the start of December.
West Texas Intermediate advanced 2.1% to settle above $72 a barrel on Tuesday, reversing a tumble the previous day that was kicked off by Saudi Arabia trimming its official selling prices.
Underpinning the rebound are continued attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea and shutdowns of major oil fields in Libya.
Crude prices have also tracked the trajectory of equity markets as they pared their losses for the day.
Meanwhile, the US expects global oil demand will exceed supply by 120,000 barrels a day in 2024 as output cuts by OPEC+ tighten the market.
That modest supply deficit could push Brent futures to average $85 a barrel in March, up from $78 last month, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly market forecast.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery climbed 2.1% to settle at $72.24 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement rose 1.9% settle at $77.59 a barrel.
Recent days have also seen a surge in oil-tanker rates as one Asian shipper sparked a frenzy by hiring a slew of vessels.
The move has tightened the availability of the world’s largest tankers and led to the biggest one-day gain in the cost of hauling oil from the US to China since November 2022.
High freight rates can sometimes make it difficult to send cargoes over long distances.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 2-article/
OIL, NATURAL GAS
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls Amid Unexpected US Stockpile Buildup"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Grant Smith
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Oil dropped in another choppy session after a surprise buildup in US crude stockpiles undercut the threat to supplies from recent escalations in the Red Sea.
West Texas Intermediate slid 1.2% to settle near $71 a barrel after swinging more than $2 throughout the day.
Bearish sentiment spread after US inventories unexpectedly swelled 1.34 million barrels, the biggest increase since mid-December.
Inventories at the Cushing storage hub, the delivery point for WTI futures, drew down for the first time in 12 weeks, temporarily pulling the contract’s prompt spread into a bullish backwardated structure.
Oil had earlier rallied as much as 1.9% after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched more attacks on merchant vessels, though no injuries or damage were reported.
The incidents — which have continued despite the deployment of a US-led maritime force — are seen as a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war.
Crude has seesawed in a roughly $5 range for the past month as traders gauge the outlook for coming quarters.
Turmoil in the Middle East, a shutdown of Libya’s biggest oil field and production cuts by OPEC+ are buttressing prices, while demand forecasts are tempering them.
The head of Asia at trading giant Vitol Group predicted markets will be relatively balanced this year as demand growth struggles to keep pace with new supply from outside OPEC and its allies.
The call is similar to the Energy Information Administration recent forecast that supply and demand will be evenly matched in 2024.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery dropped 1.2% to settle at $71.37 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement was down 1% to settle at $76.80 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 9-article/
"Oil Falls Amid Unexpected US Stockpile Buildup"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Grant Smith
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Oil dropped in another choppy session after a surprise buildup in US crude stockpiles undercut the threat to supplies from recent escalations in the Red Sea.
West Texas Intermediate slid 1.2% to settle near $71 a barrel after swinging more than $2 throughout the day.
Bearish sentiment spread after US inventories unexpectedly swelled 1.34 million barrels, the biggest increase since mid-December.
Inventories at the Cushing storage hub, the delivery point for WTI futures, drew down for the first time in 12 weeks, temporarily pulling the contract’s prompt spread into a bullish backwardated structure.
Oil had earlier rallied as much as 1.9% after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched more attacks on merchant vessels, though no injuries or damage were reported.
The incidents — which have continued despite the deployment of a US-led maritime force — are seen as a spillover from the Israel-Hamas war.
Crude has seesawed in a roughly $5 range for the past month as traders gauge the outlook for coming quarters.
Turmoil in the Middle East, a shutdown of Libya’s biggest oil field and production cuts by OPEC+ are buttressing prices, while demand forecasts are tempering them.
The head of Asia at trading giant Vitol Group predicted markets will be relatively balanced this year as demand growth struggles to keep pace with new supply from outside OPEC and its allies.
The call is similar to the Energy Information Administration recent forecast that supply and demand will be evenly matched in 2024.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery dropped 1.2% to settle at $71.37 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement was down 1% to settle at $76.80 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 9-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises After Iran Seizes Tanker, Escalating Risks"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Oil climbed after Iran seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, the latest in a run of incidents that could threaten key shipping lanes.
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.9% to settle above $72 a barrel after another session of trading in a range wider than $2.
The tanker’s capture adds a fresh dose of volatility as the US and allies weigh options for retaliating against Yemen-based Houthi militants for attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Despite the tumult in the Middle East, oil has struggled to find a clear direction this year, remaining stuck in a narrow range as traders attempt to gauge crude’s prospects.
Brent futures have been unable to break out of a $74-to-$79 channel for weeks despite “very noisy” trading, Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s global head of oil, said on Bloomberg Television.
Crude is swinging “$2 every day, but it’s not actually moving,” Luckock said.
“We are probably in for a year that is rangebound on prices.”
Despite the modest gains so far this year, analysts are turning more pessimistic on oil.
Barclays cut its 2024 estimate for Brent by $8, to $85 per barrel, as inventories remain higher than expected and the chance remains that OPEC+ will take longer than anticipated to normalize spare production capacity.
There are signs that Saudi Arabia’s recent decision to slash its crude prices is starting to affect the market, too.
European refiners will import more oil from the kingdom next month, with at least three processors seeking full contractual volumes, instead of reductions as in previous months.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery rose 0.9% to settle at $72.02 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement gained 0.8% to settle at $77.41 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 5-article/
"Oil Rises After Iran Seizes Tanker, Escalating Risks"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Oil climbed after Iran seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, the latest in a run of incidents that could threaten key shipping lanes.
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.9% to settle above $72 a barrel after another session of trading in a range wider than $2.
The tanker’s capture adds a fresh dose of volatility as the US and allies weigh options for retaliating against Yemen-based Houthi militants for attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Despite the tumult in the Middle East, oil has struggled to find a clear direction this year, remaining stuck in a narrow range as traders attempt to gauge crude’s prospects.
Brent futures have been unable to break out of a $74-to-$79 channel for weeks despite “very noisy” trading, Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s global head of oil, said on Bloomberg Television.
Crude is swinging “$2 every day, but it’s not actually moving,” Luckock said.
“We are probably in for a year that is rangebound on prices.”
Despite the modest gains so far this year, analysts are turning more pessimistic on oil.
Barclays cut its 2024 estimate for Brent by $8, to $85 per barrel, as inventories remain higher than expected and the chance remains that OPEC+ will take longer than anticipated to normalize spare production capacity.
There are signs that Saudi Arabia’s recent decision to slash its crude prices is starting to affect the market, too.
European refiners will import more oil from the kingdom next month, with at least three processors seeking full contractual volumes, instead of reductions as in previous months.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery rose 0.9% to settle at $72.02 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement gained 0.8% to settle at $77.41 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 5-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises After Retaliation Airstrikes Begin in Yemen"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Friday, January 12, 2024
Oil rose after the US and its allies launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, retaliating for attacks on ships in the Red Sea that have imperiled flows of fuel and goods through the vital waterway.
Brent climbed 1.1% to settle above $78 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate advanced to settle above $72 a barrel.
Prices spiked even higher early in the session before paring gains alongside equities as investors gauged whether the escalation will spark a broader conflict in the Middle East.
President Joe Biden said on Thursday that strikes had been conducted against a number of targets used by the Iran-backed group.
The move had an immediate impact on shipping, with at least one major tanker owner saying it has paused voyages.
In response, the Houthis said all US and UK interests are now legitimate targets.
Global benchmark Brent is now testing its 50-day moving average for the first time since October.
If prices breach the level, it could spur additional buying by algorithms and technical traders.
“Energy markets have been significantly underpriced for the ongoing rise in geopolitical risks,” said Dan Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
If Brent ends up breaking above $81 a barrel, it could propel buying and “force algos to start acquiring net long positions.”
Earlier this week, Houthis had launched their largest assault to date on shipping in the Red Sea, prompting warnings of retaliation from Washington.
Iran also seized a tanker off the coast of Oman, further inflaming the situation.
Tensions in the Middle East have been rising since Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7.
The Houthis started attacking ships in mid-November, ostensibly in support of Hamas, and have said they won’t back down until Israel ends its assault on Gaza.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for February delivery gained 0.9% to settle at $72.68 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement rose 1.1% to settle at $78.29 a barrel.
The assaults prompted many commercial shippers to redirect vessels around the southern tip of Africa, rather than risk a passage through the waterway that links to the Suez Canal.
Until now, oil tanker markets had largely avoided the worst of that impact.
Traders are keeping a close eye on whether Iran will be drawn into the conflict as it could threaten oil supplies in a region that produces a third of the world’s crude.
The war-risk premium had previously been easing amid ample output from non-OPEC+ producers and slowing demand growth.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 2-article/
"Oil Rises After Retaliation Airstrikes Begin in Yemen"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Friday, January 12, 2024
Oil rose after the US and its allies launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, retaliating for attacks on ships in the Red Sea that have imperiled flows of fuel and goods through the vital waterway.
Brent climbed 1.1% to settle above $78 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate advanced to settle above $72 a barrel.
Prices spiked even higher early in the session before paring gains alongside equities as investors gauged whether the escalation will spark a broader conflict in the Middle East.
President Joe Biden said on Thursday that strikes had been conducted against a number of targets used by the Iran-backed group.
The move had an immediate impact on shipping, with at least one major tanker owner saying it has paused voyages.
In response, the Houthis said all US and UK interests are now legitimate targets.
Global benchmark Brent is now testing its 50-day moving average for the first time since October.
If prices breach the level, it could spur additional buying by algorithms and technical traders.
“Energy markets have been significantly underpriced for the ongoing rise in geopolitical risks,” said Dan Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
If Brent ends up breaking above $81 a barrel, it could propel buying and “force algos to start acquiring net long positions.”
Earlier this week, Houthis had launched their largest assault to date on shipping in the Red Sea, prompting warnings of retaliation from Washington.
Iran also seized a tanker off the coast of Oman, further inflaming the situation.
Tensions in the Middle East have been rising since Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7.
The Houthis started attacking ships in mid-November, ostensibly in support of Hamas, and have said they won’t back down until Israel ends its assault on Gaza.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for February delivery gained 0.9% to settle at $72.68 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement rose 1.1% to settle at $78.29 a barrel.
The assaults prompted many commercial shippers to redirect vessels around the southern tip of Africa, rather than risk a passage through the waterway that links to the Suez Canal.
Until now, oil tanker markets had largely avoided the worst of that impact.
Traders are keeping a close eye on whether Iran will be drawn into the conflict as it could threaten oil supplies in a region that produces a third of the world’s crude.
The war-risk premium had previously been easing amid ample output from non-OPEC+ producers and slowing demand growth.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 2-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls in Choppy Session on Risk Off Sentiment"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Oil edged lower after a choppy session as broader risk-off sentiment dampened reduced crude production in North Dakota and Red Sea risks.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.4% to settle near $72 a barrel, with a stronger dollar making the commodity more expensive for overseas buyers.
Earlier in the session, prices rose as output at the second-largest US shale basin was cut by as much as 650,000 barrels a day and Houthi rebels ramped up their attacks.
Still, prices remain in rangebound trading, swinging almost $2 on Tuesday, as traders assessed fundamentals.
Brent futures settled slightly higher.
While the strikes have prompted Shell Plc to suspend all shipments through the area, physical crude supplies remain unaffected.
Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth told Bloomberg Television Tuesday the company has not made “fundamental” changes to shipping routes.
The Israel-Hamas conflict saw a war-risk premium built into crude, but that faded after a couple of weeks.
The US-led attack on Houthi targets last week, in retaliation for continued strikes on vessels, has ratcheted up tensions.
The main concern is Iran getting pulled directly into the conflict, but oil markets seem to be discounting that possibility.
While no production in the region has been lost, the diversions are “indirectly tightening the market by forcing oil stocks on water” to pile up, Citigroup Inc. said in a note.
Still, “it is not our base case that US/UK strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and issues in the Red Sea will lead to a substantive upside."
Prices:
WTI for February delivery fell 28 cents to settle at $72.40 a barrel in New York.
Futures didn’t settle Monday because of a US holiday.
Brent for March settlement rose 14 cents to settle at $78.29.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 4-article/
"Oil Falls in Choppy Session on Risk Off Sentiment"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Oil edged lower after a choppy session as broader risk-off sentiment dampened reduced crude production in North Dakota and Red Sea risks.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.4% to settle near $72 a barrel, with a stronger dollar making the commodity more expensive for overseas buyers.
Earlier in the session, prices rose as output at the second-largest US shale basin was cut by as much as 650,000 barrels a day and Houthi rebels ramped up their attacks.
Still, prices remain in rangebound trading, swinging almost $2 on Tuesday, as traders assessed fundamentals.
Brent futures settled slightly higher.
While the strikes have prompted Shell Plc to suspend all shipments through the area, physical crude supplies remain unaffected.
Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth told Bloomberg Television Tuesday the company has not made “fundamental” changes to shipping routes.
The Israel-Hamas conflict saw a war-risk premium built into crude, but that faded after a couple of weeks.
The US-led attack on Houthi targets last week, in retaliation for continued strikes on vessels, has ratcheted up tensions.
The main concern is Iran getting pulled directly into the conflict, but oil markets seem to be discounting that possibility.
While no production in the region has been lost, the diversions are “indirectly tightening the market by forcing oil stocks on water” to pile up, Citigroup Inc. said in a note.
Still, “it is not our base case that US/UK strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and issues in the Red Sea will lead to a substantive upside."
Prices:
WTI for February delivery fell 28 cents to settle at $72.40 a barrel in New York.
Futures didn’t settle Monday because of a US holiday.
Brent for March settlement rose 14 cents to settle at $78.29.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 4-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises Amid Production Outages and Red Sea Tensions"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Oil edged higher after another choppy session as traders weighed increased tensions in the Middle East and production outages in the US against a broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets.
West Texas Intermediate swung in a $2 range before settling up 0.2% to top $72 a barrel.
WTI’s prompt spread, a critical barometer for supply and demand, settled in the bullish structure known as backwardation for the first time since November.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated as Houthi militants threaten shipping in the Red Sea off Yemen’s coast despite US-led airstrikes, and concerns linger that the Israel-Hamas war will spread beyond Gaza, potentially drawing in Iran directly.
Earlier, crude prices faltered amidst broader risk-off sentiment and a stronger US dollar that made commodities priced in the currency less attractive.
“Crude has battling fundamental weakness with escalation risk in the Middle East,” and “recently, the market has feared the macro downside more than the potential of broader escalation which has yet to disrupt supplies,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“More incidents in the Red Sea may incite some short covering and provide a buffer to the commodity in an otherwise weak fundamental environment.”
Meanwhile, OPEC has forecast that global oil demand will continue to increase strongly in 2025 and exceed growth in supplies.
In the US, freezing temperatures have curbed refinery operations in the processing hub of Texas and shut in more than half of North Dakota’s oil production.
As much as 700,000 barrels a day was offline, up from 425,000 barrels on Monday, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority said Wednesday.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery rose 16 cents to settle at $72.56 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement fell 41 cents to settle at $77.88 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 2-article/
"Oil Rises Amid Production Outages and Red Sea Tensions"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Oil edged higher after another choppy session as traders weighed increased tensions in the Middle East and production outages in the US against a broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets.
West Texas Intermediate swung in a $2 range before settling up 0.2% to top $72 a barrel.
WTI’s prompt spread, a critical barometer for supply and demand, settled in the bullish structure known as backwardation for the first time since November.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated as Houthi militants threaten shipping in the Red Sea off Yemen’s coast despite US-led airstrikes, and concerns linger that the Israel-Hamas war will spread beyond Gaza, potentially drawing in Iran directly.
Earlier, crude prices faltered amidst broader risk-off sentiment and a stronger US dollar that made commodities priced in the currency less attractive.
“Crude has battling fundamental weakness with escalation risk in the Middle East,” and “recently, the market has feared the macro downside more than the potential of broader escalation which has yet to disrupt supplies,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“More incidents in the Red Sea may incite some short covering and provide a buffer to the commodity in an otherwise weak fundamental environment.”
Meanwhile, OPEC has forecast that global oil demand will continue to increase strongly in 2025 and exceed growth in supplies.
In the US, freezing temperatures have curbed refinery operations in the processing hub of Texas and shut in more than half of North Dakota’s oil production.
As much as 700,000 barrels a day was offline, up from 425,000 barrels on Monday, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority said Wednesday.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery rose 16 cents to settle at $72.56 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement fell 41 cents to settle at $77.88 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 2-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Rises with Equities as Middle East Tensions Grow"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Oil rose alongside equities, with the widening conflict in the Middle East adding to crude’s gain.
West Texas Intermediate rose 2.1% to settle above $74 a barrel for the first time this year, with crude futures tracking broader markets for much of the session.
Geopolitical risks also bolstered prices as the US struck more than a dozen Houthi missiles in Yemen, its latest response to the Tehran-backed group’s repeated attacks on shipping.
Elsewhere, Pakistan carried out retaliatory strikes in Iran.
Meanwhile in the US, crude stockpiles dropped 2.49 million barrels last week and now are at the lowest level since October, according to an Energy Information Administration report Thursday.
Despite the muted activity in headline prices in recent days — WTI futures have traded in a roughly $6 band so far this year — there have been some bigger moves further along the curve.
Key timespreads in the US surged on Wednesday as a chunk of domestic production was curtailed by cold weather.
Crude has remained rangebound in the opening weeks of the year, looking for direction amid the escalating crisis in the Middle East and bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later than had been expected.
Traders are also gauging the impact of supply cuts from OPEC and its allies.
The Paris-based IEA said supply from the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana will lead to another year of robust additions from outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery rose $1.52 to settle at $74.08 in New York.
Brent for March settlement rose $1.22 to settle at $79.10 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
"Oil Rises with Equities as Middle East Tensions Grow"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Oil rose alongside equities, with the widening conflict in the Middle East adding to crude’s gain.
West Texas Intermediate rose 2.1% to settle above $74 a barrel for the first time this year, with crude futures tracking broader markets for much of the session.
Geopolitical risks also bolstered prices as the US struck more than a dozen Houthi missiles in Yemen, its latest response to the Tehran-backed group’s repeated attacks on shipping.
Elsewhere, Pakistan carried out retaliatory strikes in Iran.
Meanwhile in the US, crude stockpiles dropped 2.49 million barrels last week and now are at the lowest level since October, according to an Energy Information Administration report Thursday.
Despite the muted activity in headline prices in recent days — WTI futures have traded in a roughly $6 band so far this year — there have been some bigger moves further along the curve.
Key timespreads in the US surged on Wednesday as a chunk of domestic production was curtailed by cold weather.
Crude has remained rangebound in the opening weeks of the year, looking for direction amid the escalating crisis in the Middle East and bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later than had been expected.
Traders are also gauging the impact of supply cuts from OPEC and its allies.
The Paris-based IEA said supply from the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana will lead to another year of robust additions from outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery rose $1.52 to settle at $74.08 in New York.
Brent for March settlement rose $1.22 to settle at $79.10 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 8-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Crude Settles Lower on Supply Headwinds"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, January 19, 2024
Oil edged lower after a week of rangebound trading as investors weighed forecasts of an amply supplied market against increased attacks in the Red Sea.
West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.9% to settle near $75 after trading in a roughly $4 range for the week.
The US has launched multiple attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen as the Iranian-backed group continues to menace shipping off the coast.
Still, the International Energy Agency expects robust supplies this year, and US data released Thursday showed an unexpected gain in the country’s crude stockpiles.
The market remains gripped by a fundamental pessimism and is relying heavily on geopolitical developments to eke out gains, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“Geopolitical headlines are the oxygen keeping a bid in crude,” Babin said.
“It can only stay higher for so long without a new one.”
Futures have struggled for direction in 2024 and frequently followed broader financial market sentiment.
Participation in crude markets from fundamental players has been limited, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery fell 67 cents to settle at $73.41 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement dropped 54 cents to settle at $78.56 a barrel.
“Flows from trend-following algorithms are now overwhelmingly driving” oil trading, he said.
Despite the front-month price’s lack of momentum, parts of the oil complex are signaling a tight market.
WTI’s prompt spread, a critical barometer for supply and demand, surged into a bullish backwardated structure earlier this week, indicating supply is outstripping consumption.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/crude ... 5-article/
"Crude Settles Lower on Supply Headwinds"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Friday, January 19, 2024
Oil edged lower after a week of rangebound trading as investors weighed forecasts of an amply supplied market against increased attacks in the Red Sea.
West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.9% to settle near $75 after trading in a roughly $4 range for the week.
The US has launched multiple attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen as the Iranian-backed group continues to menace shipping off the coast.
Still, the International Energy Agency expects robust supplies this year, and US data released Thursday showed an unexpected gain in the country’s crude stockpiles.
The market remains gripped by a fundamental pessimism and is relying heavily on geopolitical developments to eke out gains, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“Geopolitical headlines are the oxygen keeping a bid in crude,” Babin said.
“It can only stay higher for so long without a new one.”
Futures have struggled for direction in 2024 and frequently followed broader financial market sentiment.
Participation in crude markets from fundamental players has been limited, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery fell 67 cents to settle at $73.41 a barrel in New York.
Brent for March settlement dropped 54 cents to settle at $78.56 a barrel.
“Flows from trend-following algorithms are now overwhelmingly driving” oil trading, he said.
Despite the front-month price’s lack of momentum, parts of the oil complex are signaling a tight market.
WTI’s prompt spread, a critical barometer for supply and demand, surged into a bullish backwardated structure earlier this week, indicating supply is outstripping consumption.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/crude ... 5-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Crude Lifted on Prompt Spread Signals"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Monday, January 22, 2024
A key oil-market gauge is signaling a stronger underlying physical market as Ukrainian drone strikes threaten Russian oil exports.
Global benchmark Brent crude’s front-month futures are trading at a 46-cent premium to the next contract, near the highest since November, excluding expiration days.
That measure, known as the prompt spread, is a critical barometer for supply and demand and has been bolstered by rising geopolitical risks even as front-month prices remain rangebound.
Drone attacks shut down a Novatek PJSC gas-condensate terminal on the Baltic coast, near a major oil-export terminal, threatening the flow of Russian crude into the market.
West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.4% while Brent advanced 1.9% on Monday.
Still, oil is facing some resistance after Libya’s National Oil Corp. said flows from the Sharara field — which previously pumped about 270,000 barrels a day — would resume after a three-week stoppage.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, traders are expecting prolonged disruption to shipping in the Red Sea and Suez Canal as the US attempts to prevent Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen from attacking vessels.
Military action to deter the assaults will take time, according to a Biden administration official, Jon Finer, who hinted Washington could take extra measures in the coming days.
Crude has struggled for direction this year, rising and falling on alternate weeks.
That seesaw pattern has developed as the impact of tensions across the Middle East, including the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, is balanced by expectations that oil markets will remain amply supplied.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery, which expires later on Monday, added $1.78 to settle at $75.19 a barrel.
The more active March contract settled at $74.76
Brent for March settlement rose $1.50 to settle at $80.06
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/crude ... 1-article/
"Crude Lifted on Prompt Spread Signals"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Monday, January 22, 2024
A key oil-market gauge is signaling a stronger underlying physical market as Ukrainian drone strikes threaten Russian oil exports.
Global benchmark Brent crude’s front-month futures are trading at a 46-cent premium to the next contract, near the highest since November, excluding expiration days.
That measure, known as the prompt spread, is a critical barometer for supply and demand and has been bolstered by rising geopolitical risks even as front-month prices remain rangebound.
Drone attacks shut down a Novatek PJSC gas-condensate terminal on the Baltic coast, near a major oil-export terminal, threatening the flow of Russian crude into the market.
West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.4% while Brent advanced 1.9% on Monday.
Still, oil is facing some resistance after Libya’s National Oil Corp. said flows from the Sharara field — which previously pumped about 270,000 barrels a day — would resume after a three-week stoppage.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, traders are expecting prolonged disruption to shipping in the Red Sea and Suez Canal as the US attempts to prevent Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen from attacking vessels.
Military action to deter the assaults will take time, according to a Biden administration official, Jon Finer, who hinted Washington could take extra measures in the coming days.
Crude has struggled for direction this year, rising and falling on alternate weeks.
That seesaw pattern has developed as the impact of tensions across the Middle East, including the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, is balanced by expectations that oil markets will remain amply supplied.
Prices:
WTI for February delivery, which expires later on Monday, added $1.78 to settle at $75.19 a barrel.
The more active March contract settled at $74.76
Brent for March settlement rose $1.50 to settle at $80.06
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/crude ... 1-article/
Re: OIL, NATURAL GAS
RIGZONE
"Oil Falls After Wavering in Narrow Range"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Oil fell in a choppy session as traders weighed escalating military activity in the Middle East against expectations of rising supplies.
The US and UK launched more airstrikes against the Houthis on Monday to prevent the Iran-backed group from attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
Despite the increased geopolitical tensions, West Texas Intermediate fell 0.5% to settle near $74 a barrel after swinging in a range of less than $2.
“This range-bound trading regime is the ‘kryptonite’ of trend followers,” said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
The narrow band of activity leads algorithms to buy high and sell low, causing with prices remaining largely unchanged, he said.
Still, a critical oil-market barometer for supply and demand known as the prompt-spread has been bolstered by the increased risks in the Red Sea.
Global benchmark Brent crude’s front-month futures are trading at a 44-cent premium to the next contract, near the highest since November, excluding expiration days.
Crude has struggled to set a clear direction this year despite the Middle East conflict and a pledge by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to rein in production.
Oil’s gains have been damped by indications of abundant non-OPEC output, with the International Energy Agency forecasting ample supply.
In addition, Libya restarted flows from its largest field after a halt, and US drillers are recovering from a freeze that hurt operations.
In Russia, the country’s seaborne crude shipments fell to the lowest in almost two months after continuing bad weather in some ports and a Ukrainian drone strike that briefly halted flows from a key Baltic export terminal.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery dropped 39 cents to settle at $74.37 a barrel.
Brent for March settlement fell 51 cents to settle at $79.55 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 7-article/
"Oil Falls After Wavering in Narrow Range"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Oil fell in a choppy session as traders weighed escalating military activity in the Middle East against expectations of rising supplies.
The US and UK launched more airstrikes against the Houthis on Monday to prevent the Iran-backed group from attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
Despite the increased geopolitical tensions, West Texas Intermediate fell 0.5% to settle near $74 a barrel after swinging in a range of less than $2.
“This range-bound trading regime is the ‘kryptonite’ of trend followers,” said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
The narrow band of activity leads algorithms to buy high and sell low, causing with prices remaining largely unchanged, he said.
Still, a critical oil-market barometer for supply and demand known as the prompt-spread has been bolstered by the increased risks in the Red Sea.
Global benchmark Brent crude’s front-month futures are trading at a 44-cent premium to the next contract, near the highest since November, excluding expiration days.
Crude has struggled to set a clear direction this year despite the Middle East conflict and a pledge by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to rein in production.
Oil’s gains have been damped by indications of abundant non-OPEC output, with the International Energy Agency forecasting ample supply.
In addition, Libya restarted flows from its largest field after a halt, and US drillers are recovering from a freeze that hurt operations.
In Russia, the country’s seaborne crude shipments fell to the lowest in almost two months after continuing bad weather in some ports and a Ukrainian drone strike that briefly halted flows from a key Baltic export terminal.
Prices:
WTI for March delivery dropped 39 cents to settle at $74.37 a barrel.
Brent for March settlement fell 51 cents to settle at $79.55 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_f ... 7-article/