THE EUROPEANS

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REUTERS

"Dutch responds to US China policy with a plan to curb semiconductor tech exports"


By Toby Sterling, Karen Freifeld and Alexandra Alper

March 8, 2023

The Netherlands' government on Wednesday said it plans new restrictions on exports of semiconductor technology to protect national security, joining the United State's effort to curb chip exports to China.

The U.S. in October imposed sweeping export restrictions on shipments of American chipmaking tools to China, but for the restrictions to be effective it needs other key suppliers in the Netherlands and Japan, who also oversee key chipmaking technology, to agree.

The allied countries have been in talks on the matter for months.

Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher announced the decision in a letter to parliament, saying the restrictions will be introduced before the summer.

Her letter did not name China, a key Dutch trading partner, nor did it name ASML Holding NV, Europe's largest tech firm and a major supplier to semiconductor manufacturers, but both will be affected.

It specified one technology that will be impacted is "DUV" lithography, the second-most advanced machines that ASML sells to computer chip manufacturers.

"Because the Netherlands considers it necessary on national security grounds to get this technology into oversight with the greatest of speed, the Cabinet will introduce a national control list" the letter said.

ASML said in a response it expects to have to apply for licenses to export the most advanced segment among its DUV machines, but that would not impact its 2023 financial guidance.

ASML dominates the market for lithography systems, multimillion dollar machines that use powerful lasers to create the minute circuitry of computer chips.

The company expects sales in China to remain about flat at 2.2 billion euros in 2023 -- implying relative shrinkage as the company expects overall sales to grow by 25%.

Major ASML customers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel are engaged in capacity expansions.

ASML has never sold its most advanced "EUV" machines to customers in China, and the bulk of its DUV sales in China go to relatively less advanced chipmakers.

Its biggest South Korean customers, Samsung and SK Hynix both have significant manufacturing capacity in China.

The Dutch announcement leaves major questions unanswered, including whether ASML will be able to service the more than 8 billion euros worth of DUV machines it has sold to customers in China since 2014.

Schreinemacher said the Dutch government had decided on measures "as carefully and precisely as possible ... to avoid unnecessary disruption of value chains."

"It is for companies of importance to know what they are facing and to have time to adjust to new rules," she wrote.

Japan is expected to issue an update on its chip equipment export policies as soon as this week.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/dutc ... 023-03-08/
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Re: THE EUROPEANS

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REUTERS

"ASML, China customers haunted by uncertainty on new Dutch chip export rules"


By Toby Sterling and Philip Blenkinsop

March 9, 2023

AMSTERDAM, March 9 (Reuters) - The Dutch government has not yet defined crucial aspects of new restrictions on chip-technology exports to China including whether ASML Holding NV can service chip-printing machines the company has already sold in the country.

"Those details still need to be worked out," Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher told reporters on Thursday in Stockholm.

Schreinmacher's remarks highlight that, while the plan announced by the Dutch on Wednesday puts the Netherlands in broad alignment with U.S. goals of undermining China's ability to make cutting-edge chips, ASML and its Chinese customers still do not know exactly how it will affect their businesses.

The Dutch firm, Europe's largest technology by market capitalization, had 14% of its sales in China in 2022 and has sold more than 8 billion euros ($8.46 billion) worth of chip lithography equipment in China over the past decade.

Companies that buy its machines enter into service agreements with ASML for ongoing maintenance.

The "installed base" segment contributed about 25% of ASML's worldwide revenue in 2022.


The machines -- which cost tens of millions of euros apiece and perform an essential step in creating the circuitry of chips -- require unique parts and constant maintenance to remain in working order.

Analysts and the company said the lack of clarity from the Dutch government will hang over the company's outlook.

Key questions include any limits on servicing and which models will fall under the restrictions

ASML itself has for now repeated its guidance for 2023 of flat sales in China of around 2.2 billion euros.

That compares with 25% revenue growth overall, illustrating the likely impact of the restrictions.

An ASML spokesperson said on Thursday the company interprets the government's remarks to mean that only a thin additional slice of its second-best product line will now be restricted in China, following a complete ban on its most advanced machines in 2019.

But there is an element of guesswork to that.

"ASML is waiting for more information" the spokesperson said.

ING analyst Marc Hesselink calculated that the new Dutch rules could possibly affect products that account for 10% of ASML's worldwide sales.

However, that would be a worst-case scenario and the impact will likely be less.

That's because ASML customers in China include South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix Inc and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, which will likely be granted licenses, as well as domestic Chinese companies like logic chipmaker SMIC and memory chip maker YMTC, which face U.S. export restrictions and may not be.

Schreinemacher said on Thursday the Dutch would grant licenses on a case-by-case basis and not follow instructions from Washington.

But Citi analyst Amit Harchandani said the Dutch restrictions appear comparable to those imposed on U.S. companies last year and ASML's assessment of the impact is realistic.

For Chinese customers, the picture is less clear.

"What we can say is that their ability to pursue leading-edge nodes development will be significantly curtailed," Harchandani said.

Hesselink of ING predicted that most Chinese chip makers will now opt to focus on "trailing edge" or production of chips using slightly older technology.

The Chinese may have a competitive advantage there, and ASML's sales in China could even grow modestly.

Regardless, ASML will thrive outside China in the long run as chipmakers worldwide expand capacity, he said.

"The demand for ASML machines is not going to be impacted, it's simply going to shift to a different region," he said.

Reporting by Toby Sterling; Editing by Alex Richardson and Cynthia Osterman

https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml ... 023-03-09/
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Re: THE EUROPEANS

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REUTERS

"Deutsche Bank tumbles as jittery investors seek safer shores"


By Amanda Cooper, Sruthi Shankar and Amruta Khandekar

March 24, 2023

March 24 (Reuters) - Shares of Germany's largest bank Deutsche Bank plunged on Friday as investors fretted that regulators and central banks have yet to contain the worst shock to the sector since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Wider indicators of financial market stress were also flashing, with the euro falling against the dollar, euro zone government bond yields sinking and the costs of insuring against bank defaults surging despite assurances from policymakers that the global banking system is safe.

In the latest effort to reassure investors, the U.S. Treasury said the Financial Stability Oversight Council - which comprises the heads of various U.S. regulators - agreed at a Friday meeting that the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient."

The meeting was chaired by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, whose comments are being closely watched by markets for an indication of how far authorities are willing to go to shore up the banking sector after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month.


Earlier in the day, Germany's Deutsche Bank was thrust into the investor spotlight and slumped 8.5% alongside a sharp jump in the cost of insuring its bonds against the risk of default.

The index of top European bank shares ended down 3.8%.

"The market is suspicious, or weary is maybe a better way to put it, that there are more problems out there that have come forth," said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXstreet.com.

"It takes time."

"It's going to have to be weeks without any problems in the banking system before markets will be convinced that it's not a systemic problem."

Banking analysts stressed the difference between Credit Suisse AG - which needed a rescue by bigger Swiss peer UBS AG - and Deutsche Bank, saying the German bank boasted strong fundamentals and profitability.

The research firm Autonomous said it was "crystal clear" Deutsche is "NOT the next Credit Suisse," while JPMorgan analysts wrote "we are not concerned" and that Deutsche's fundamentals were "solid".

Paul van der Westhuizen, senior strategist at Rabobank, cited Deutsche's profitability as the "fundamental difference" between the two European banks, given Credit Suisse did not have a profitable outlook for 2023.

"It's a very profitable bank."

"There's no reason to worry," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said.

Still, shares in Germany's largest bank have lost a fifth of their value so far this month and the cost of its five-year credit default swaps (CDS) - a form of insurance for bondholders - jumped to a four-year high on Friday, based on data from S&P Market Intelligence.

Short sellers have made a profit of over $100 million on paper betting against Deutsche Bank stock over the last two weeks, financial data company Ortex said on Friday.

Deutsche Bank declined to comment.

Worries in Europe spilled over to the United States before some bank stocks bounced back.

JPMorgan Chase & Co ended down 1.5%, while Bank of America climbed 0.6%.

The S&P 500 regional banks index recovered 1.75%, with PacWest Bancorp rallying more than 3% and First Republic Bank falling 1.4%.

DILUTION CONCERNS

European banks' Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt - a $275 billion market of bonds that can be written off during rescues to prevent the costs of bailouts falling onto taxpayers - also came under further selling pressure.

As part of the deal with UBS, the Swiss regulator determined that Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds with a notional value of $17 billion would be wiped out, stunning global credit markets.

Although authorities in Europe and Asia have said this week they would continue to impose losses on shareholders before bondholders, unease has lingered.

"The developments in the AT1 market mean that most European banks are incentivized at this point to issue common equity, which is diluting for shareholders and also the reason why banking stocks are being reset lower," said Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank.

In a bid to show it has ample capital while keeping funding costs in check, Italy's UniCredit is leaning towards repaying a perpetual bond at the earliest opportunity in June, a source close to the matter told Reuters.

A spokesperson for UniCredit declined to comment.

Amid the market volatility, European policymakers voiced support for their continent's banks, with Germany's Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde all saying the system was stable.

UBS CHALLENGES

Policymakers have stressed the turmoil is different from the global financial crisis 15 years ago, saying banks are better capitalised and funds more easily available.

But the worries spread quickly, and on Sunday UBS was rushed into taking over Credit Suisse after its Swiss rival lost the confidence of investors.

Brokerage group Jefferies said the deal would change an equity story for UBS which was based on a lower risk profile, organic growth and high capital returns.

"All these elements, which is what UBS shareholders bought into, are gone, likely for years," it said.

Reporting by Reuters bureaus; Writing by Toby Chopra and Deepa Babington; Editing by Jason Neely, Catherine Evans, Alexander Smith, Cynthia Osterman and Daniel Wallis

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 023-03-24/
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Re: THE EUROPEANS

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CRYPTOPOLITAN

"France is demanding that Europe cuts ties with the United States"


Story by Jai Hamid

9 APRIL 2023

France’s President Emmanuel Macron has demanded that Europe reduces its reliance on the United States and avoids getting dragged into a confrontation between the US and China over Taiwan.

The statement, made during Macron’s three-day state visit to China, could risk riling Washington and highlights the divisions in the European Union over how to approach China.

France’s concept of strategic autonomy

Macron emphasized his pet theory of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a “third superpower.”

Speaking with POLITICO and two French journalists on his plane back from China, he said “the great risk” Europe faces is that it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy.”

He also highlighted his concern about “growing tensions in the region” that could lead to “a terrible accident.”


Macron’s comments came just hours after China launched large military exercises around Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.

Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade in recent years and has a policy of isolating the democratic island by forcing other countries to recognize it as part of “one China.”

Europe’s dependency on the US for weapons and energy, and the “extraterritoriality of the US dollar” were two factors Macron singled out as reducing Europe’s autonomy.

He suggested Europe should focus on boosting European defense industries and reducing its reliance on the dollar.


Macron’s concept of strategic autonomy for Europe has been his long-held goal, and he sees France as the balancing power between the Cold War blocs.

He has argued that Europe must reduce its dependency on the US to become an independent geostrategic player.

The French leader emphasized that Europe needs to have a European strategy in areas such as Ukraine, relations with China, and sanctions.

Macron warned against getting into a bloc versus bloc logic and said that Europe “should not be caught up in a disordering of the world and crises that aren’t ours.”

Risks of getting dragged into a confrontation

Macron’s comments highlighted the risks of getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan.

He argued that it is not in Europe’s interest to accelerate a crisis over Taiwan, saying, “The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the US agenda and a Chinese overreaction.”

Macron’s approach to Taiwan was more conciliatory than the US or even the European Union.

While discussing Taiwan with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Friday, Macron warned against “an acceleration of tensions breaking out between the duopoly” of China and the US.

He cautioned that if the confrontation escalates too quickly, Europeans “won’t have the time or the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and will become vassals.”

Macron’s statement has highlighted the divisions within the European Union over how to approach China, particularly in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.

While Europe’s emergence as an independent geostrategic player has been Macron’s goal, there is still contentious debate in Europe over the right approach with China and overbalancing security and trade issues.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fr ... 3163&ei=53
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Re: THE EUROPEANS

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REUTERS

"EU takes on United States, Asia with chip subsidy plan"


By Foo Yun Chee

April 18, 2023

BRUSSELS, April 18 (Reuters) - The European Union on Tuesday agreed a 43 billion euro ($47 billion) plan for its semiconductor industry in an attempt to catch up with the United States and Asia and start a green industrial revolution.

The EU Chips Act, proposed by the European Commission last year and confirmed by Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, aims to double the bloc's share of global chip output to 20% by 2030 and follows the U.S. CHIPS for America Act.

Reuters reported on April 5 that a deal was imminent and the confirmation of the EU Chips Act was welcomed by industry players which said it would bring manufacturing capabilities, skills and research and development improvements.

"We need chips to power digital and green transitions or healthcare systems," Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager said in a tweet.

Since the announcement of its chips subsidies plan last year, the EU has already attracted more than 100 billion euros in public and private investments, an EU official said.

But the EU may struggle to close the gap with rivals, said analysts such as Paul Triolo, a China and tech expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies.

"The critical piece of the equation which the EU will need to get right, as for the U.S., is how much of the supply chains supporting the industry can be moved to the EU and at what cost," said Triolo.

While the Commission had originally proposed funding only cutting-edge chip plants, EU governments and lawmakers have widened the scope to cover the whole value chain, including older chips and research and design facilities.

Hendrik Bourgeois, VP European Government Affairs at U.S. chipmaker Intel, which will get subsidies for a plant it operates in Germany, welcomed the deal saying it showed that the EU was "serious about securing its future prosperity".

Reporting by Foo Yun Chee

https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-a ... 023-04-18/
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Re: THE EUROPEANS

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The Hill

"Europe backs off climate push as voters rebel — will Biden take note?"


Opinion by Liz Peek, opinion contributor

24 APRIL 2023

Europe is beginning to back off its aggressive carbon-zero policies.

Why?

Because consumers are balking.

European Union administrators have gone too far, too fast, and the citizens of France, Germany and the Netherlands, among others, have had enough.


There is a lesson here for President Biden.

Unfortunately, he and his White House climate zealots are unlikely to learn from what is going on across the Atlantic.

Ironically, it is the French Green Party that most recently tried to block plans pushed by the European Parliament to put a carbon tax on fuel used in heating and transport.

Its members fear that the measure will reignite the protests of the Gilets Jaunes, the yellow vest group that emerged overnight to oppose a proposed carbon tax on diesel fuel and whose protests all but shut down France.

It is not that the Greens have gotten realistic about the need for oil and gas as a bridge fuel, or have suddenly recognized the economic risks of betting on unreliable renewable fuels; rather, they worry that, as one legislator put it, “in a few years’ time, people will hate climate policies."

"People will go to the far-right parties.”

The proposal to force businesses to buy emissions allowances on fuel and heating would increase household costs by an estimated 50 percent — too much to be politically acceptable.

Nonetheless, the EU Parliament approved the measure, which will not go into effect until 2027 and could be postponed if energy prices increase.


The squabble is a follow-on to the German government’s fight against the EU’s proposed restrictions on auto emissions, which would essentially ban the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines after 2035.

Similar to Biden’s recent tailpipe emissions diktat, which would squash sales of gasoline-powered cars in the same time frame, the EU wants to force automakers to reduce new car emissions 55 percent by 2030 compared to 2021 levels and 100 percent by 2035.

In Holland, meanwhile, the government’s proposal to force a significant portion of the country’s livestock farmers out of business (and reduce the number of cows, pigs and chickens in the nation by one-third) to lower nitrogen emissions led to riots last summer.

It also led to a surge in the popularity of the nascent Farmer-Citizen Movement, which came from nowhere to win 15 seats in the upper house of the Dutch national parliament last month, putting the populist group on par with other important voting blocks.


Here at home, as it barrels toward a fanciful green economy devoid of gasoline-powered cars, the Biden White House is ignoring polling that shows decidedly tepid enthusiasm for electric vehicles.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently issued a new directive on tailpipe emissions that would effectively require that 67 percent of new cars and light pickup trucks and 46 percent of medium-duty trucks sold in the United States by 2032 be all-electric.

This goal is a significant step up from Biden’s earlier target of 50 percent new cars being EVs by 2030 and would require a massive investment by automakers; it would also require a monster build-out of our electric grid, significant expansion of available battery materials and huge number of new charging stations.

Last year fewer than 6 percent of all new cars were electric; the proposal is so extreme that he faces serious push-back even from his pals in Big Labor.

According to The New York Times, the stricter emissions standards were originally to be rolled out in Detroit, home to the U.S. auto industry, but pushback from the United Auto Workers was such that the announcement was moved to EPA headquarters in Washington, and boycotted by union reps.

It’s no wonder.

Manufacturing an electric vehicle requires fewer than half the number of workers that are required to produce an internal combustion engine.

Not only will the industry’s workforce shrink as car makers switch to EVs, but most of the new plants making the electric cars and batteries are located in right-to-work states, where the costs are lower.

Why would Joe Biden put his excellent relations with organized labor at risk?

Because desperate times call for desperate measures.

President Biden wants very much to run for a second term, but he’s buried under low approval ratings and a darkening economic outlook.

He is desperate for a win.

That’s why he’s doubling down on policies that he and his managers think appeal to groups absolutely critical to his campaign: climate activists and young voters.

A poll last summer showed a shocking 94 percent of voters between the ages of 18-29 wanted someone other than Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024.

That reading lit a fire under Biden’s camp, prompting, among other things, a renewed push to cancel student loan debt, even though his program would cost an estimated $450 billion and has been criticized as unfair to the majority of Americans who do not attend college or who have already paid off their student loans.

In seeking the youth vote, climate is key.

A recent Economist poll shows climate to be one of the top three issues for people under the age of 29; for no other age group does it rank so high.

But the effort to win over environmentalists is not only an appeal to Gen X — it is also about money.

The 2020 election established climate activists as a significant new source of Democrat funding, contributing some $50 million to Biden’s campaign.

Joe needs that backing.

Biden especially needs to re-energize climate voters since he did the unthinkable and allowed Chevron to drill on Alaska’s North Slope.

Greenlighting the Big Willow project breached the president’s campaign promise to halt drilling on federal lands and marred his almost perfect anti-oil record.


Before Biden proceeds further down the new green road, he should consider that his aggressive (some say impossible) and expensive proposals could cost the climate effort significant popular support.

It is happening in Europe, and it could happen here.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... e32a&ei=47
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REUTERS

"Russian oil supplies to EU via southern Druzhba to rise 16% in June - sources"


Reuters

June 7, 2023

MOSCOW, June 7 (Reuters) - Russia's piped supply of Urals crude to the European Union (EU) via the southern Druzhba pipeline in June is set to increase by 16% compared to May as EU refiners seek to secure more oil amid fears of disruptions in transit via Ukraine, two sources said.

Russian pipeline oil supplies to Europe are excluded from an EU embargo, but the route crosses Ukraine and has been under constant risk of disruptions since Russia sent thousands of troops into Ukraine last year in what Moscow calls a "special military operation".

The southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline supplies Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

Hungary's MOL, the main buyer of Urals crude in Hungary and Slovakia, is expected to purchase about 900,000 tonnes of Urals oil via Druzhba in June, up from 750,000 tonnes in May, the sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

"Recent escalation in Ukraine, damages to big infrastructural objects (are a) worry ... it is a good idea to order more now," one of the sources said, referring in particular to this week's destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam.

Russia and Ukraine blame each other for the incident.

The Czech Republic's Unipetrol refiner - the country's sole buyer which is owned by Poland's PKN Orlen - will purchase up to 430,000 tonnes of Urals in June, versus 400,000 tonnes purchased in May, the sources said.

"Crude oil continues to arrive uninterruptedly to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline and we do not expect delays during the upcoming months", a MOL media representative said, but declined to comment on monthly purchases.

PKN Orlen also said it never comments on oil purchases and contractual details.

The EU imposed an embargo on Russian oil purchases via maritime routes from December.

Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Repubic were, however, allowed to continue Russian oil imports as critical feedstock.

It would be difficult for them to secure enough oil for their refineries if Druzhba is suspended.

Oil supplies via a section of the southern Druzhba pipeline were temporarily suspended in November following shelling on a power station which provides electricity for a pump station.

Parts of the pipeline have also been attacked by drones inland in Russia, according to Russian reports, but the attacks did not cause significant supply disruptions.

The Druzhba pipeline crosses Belarus and Ukraine and remains an income source for both countries which receive transit fees.

Kiev and Minsk asked for significant hikes in transit tariffs, making the route less convenient for European buyers that pay for transport.

A MOL media representative told Reuters that the company "continues to procure crude oil via both the Druzhba and Adria pipelines despite the transit fees being significantly higher compared to reasonable market prices".

MOL started to make payments to Ukrtransnafta for transit directly amid issues on Russian Transneft payments to Ukrainian pipeline operator.

Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-06-07/
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The Telegraph

"Prepare for Ukraine's counter-offensive to falter"


Story by Colonel Richard Kemp

17 JUNE 2023

Nato needs to brace itself for the prospect of Ukraine’s counteroffensive failing to achieve major success.

Indeed, so far, Kyiv has attained only limited gains.

But those who expected a lightning breakthrough were always going to be disappointed.


This is not German panzers against Polish horse cavalry, nor is it American shock and awe against demoralised Iraqi forces in antiquated tanks with no air cover.

Instead, we are seeing something closer to an attritional style of warfare, with attacking forces battering against heavily fortified defences.

Current operations are at the stage of reconnaissance-in-force along four separate axes of advance, with Ukrainian units probing Russian positions to identify weak spots that can then be softened up with artillery and exploited by armoured reserve forces.

Commandos and partisans are said to be working behind enemy lines to create confusion and disrupt command and control centres.

Long range strikes are being used to hit headquarters.

Critical here is deception, attacking in as many areas as possible to keep the Russians guessing where the major thrusts will come.

But in war, operations rarely go to plan and the odds are stacked against Kyiv.

Russia’s General Valery Gerasimov has had a lot of time and resources to prepare effective defences in multiple lines.

The Russians also have numerical superiority in pretty much everything, from men and tanks to, perhaps most critically, artillery.

Then there is air power.

Almost every attacking force from the Second World War onwards has succeeded only with air superiority or supremacy.

This the Ukrainians do not have, and we have already seen the cost of that with battlefield footage apparently showing American-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles and German Leopard 2 tanks picked off by attack helicopters.

So this counter offensive could go either way.

But one thing is certain: a Ukrainian victory is very far from guaranteed.

We can already see this concern reflected in notes of caution from the White House, where President Biden is presumably contemplating the damage to his political programme that might result from anything other than decisive gains on the battlefield.

1 Corinthians tells us: “If the trumpet give an uncertain sound, who shall prepare himself to the battle?”

At the Vilnius Nato summit next month, if members are peering into the abyss of a failing counteroffensive, there will certainly be many uncertain voices.

Those who were already reluctant to send weapons will have a new excuse: Ukraine doesn’t have the fighting power to achieve victory.

Never mind that, over the last year, we have seen a far less determined response from many countries than this crisis called for.

Kyiv could be fielding far more Leopard tanks now if Berlin had not obstructed their deployment, and it would even be possible to have F-16s in the skies if the decision to supply them – still not yet made – had been taken in Washington a year ago.

The risk is that the likes of Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz will renew their lobbying to press Kyiv towards a peace treaty before the year is out.

Wavering of that sort in Europe would undermine Biden’s position with Congress, with every prospect of House Republicans trying to thwart additional funding for Ukraine.

But that would be exactly the wrong response.

If the offensive falters, the West will need to turn in earnest to the question of how to expand Ukraine’s offensive capability.

And that hard support will have to be backed up by announcing a definitive path to Ukraine’s membership of Nato.

The leaders at Vilnius should ask themselves a question: if Ukraine with the might of the Atlantic alliance at its back cannot prevail against Russian aggression, then what is the point of Nato?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pr ... 7960&ei=43
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REUTERS

"EU approves 11th sanctions package against Russia over Ukraine"


By Jan Strupczewski

June 21, 2023

BRUSSELS, June 21 (Reuters) - European Union governments agreed on Wednesday to an 11th package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, aimed at stopping other countries and companies from circumventing existing measures.

The new package, tweeted by Sweden as EU president, forbids transit via Russia of an expanded list of goods and technology which might aid Russia's military or security sector.

The biggest novelty, diplomats said, was enabling restrictions on the sale of sensitive dual-use goods and technology to third countries that might sell it on to Russia.

Names of such countries can be added to an annex of the EU sanctions regulation with unanimous agreement of all 27 members.

EU officials have long been concerned about a surge of demand for EU products from Russia's neighbours like Armenia, Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan and from the United Arab Emirates, Turkey or China.

Moscow justifies the war on Ukraine as an existential battle for its own security and says the West is failing in an aggressive attempt to strangle its economy and crush its power.

The EU package extends the suspension of EU broadcasting licences of five Russian state-controlled media.

To curb the practice of ships loading Russian crude oil or petroleum products at sea, the package bans access to EU ports for ships which engage in ship-to-ship transfers if there is cause to suspect the cargo was of Russian origin.

GREECE, HUNGARY DROP OBJECTIONS

The package adds a further 71 persons and 33 entities to those banned from the EU and with EU assets frozen, for involvement in illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

The deal, in the making since April, had been held up by objections from Hungary and Greece over the listing by Ukraine of some of their companies as sponsors of war, because they did business with Russia or in other ways contributed to Moscow's war effort.

Overnight, Ukraine removed the five Greek shipping firms from its list, securing the backing of Athens for the package.

Hungary backed the new sanctions even though its OTP bank stayed on the Ukrainian list, but said it would return to the issue when the EU discusses a new tranche of money for Ukraine from the European Peace Facility, diplomats said.

Another controversial issue, which held up Germany's backing, was the inclusion in the draft of the names of eight Chinese companies, which the EU believes were selling Russian goods that could help its war.

The names were leaked in early May and since then, after high-level contacts between the European Commission and China, Beijing made a commitment to put pressure on these companies to stop their activities, diplomats said.

As a result, five were taken off the list.

The three remaining, registered in Hong Kong and little known, were suspected of being Russian-owned, diplomats said.

Reporting by Julia Payne, Sudip Kar-Gupta, Gabriela Baczynska, Jan Strupczewski, Brenda Goh in Shanghai; editing by Philippa Fletcher

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu ... 023-06-21/
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REUTERS

"Dutch curb chip equipment exports, drawing Chinese ire"


By Toby Sterling

June 30, 2023

Summary

* Limited' number of companies, products affected - minister

* Curbs expected to come into effect on Sept. 1

* China says move violates trade rules

* ASML says no change to financial guidance


AMSTERDAM, June 30 (Reuters) - The Dutch government on Friday announced new restrictions on exports of some semiconductor equipment, boosting a U.S.-led drive to curb supplies of high-tech components to China but drawing an angry response from Beijing.

"We have taken this step in the interest of our national security" said Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher, adding such equipment may have military applications.

Schreinemacher said a "very limited" number of companies and product models would be affected, and China was not named.

But the Chinese Embassy in the Netherlands described the move as an "abuse of export control measures" that violate trade rules.

ASML, a Dutch company that is a key equipment supplier to computer chip makers, said it did not expect the new rules to have a material impact on its business and it was not changing its financial guidance.

The rules, which will require companies that make advanced chipmaking equipment to seek a licence before they can export it, are expected to go into effect on Sept. 1.

A technical document specifying which equipment will require a licence accompanied the announcement.

The list is the result of a high-level agreement between the U.S. and two allies with strong chip equipment industries - The Netherlands and Japan - to tighten restrictions as Washington seeks to hobble Beijing's ability to make its own chips.

ASML, Europe's largest technology company, repeated a March statement indicating the top section of models of its second most advanced "DUV" lithography systems, which are used to help print the circuitry of chips, would need a licence.

It named its 2000 series "and subsequent" models.

ASML's most advanced "EUV" machines have never been shipped to China.

ASML's shares were down 1.7% at 657.40 euros at 1140 GMT, while smaller rival ASM International dipped 0.8% to 381.10.

ASM International, which makes atomic layer deposition tools, said it did not expect a material change to its forecasts as a result of the Dutch rules, which also discuss that technology.

The U.S. in October imposed export restrictions on shipments of American chipmaking tools to China from U.S. companies like Lam Research and Applied Materials on national security grounds, and lobbied other countries with key suppliers to do similar.

China decried the move, part of a heightening of tensions between the two countries that has spanned everything from 5G equipment and alleged spy balloons to relations over Taiwan.

Reuters reported on Thursday the U.S. may introduce additional rules next month, which could affect other, slightly older models of ASML machines.

The U.S. can regulate ASML directly as its products include U.S. technology.

In Friday's statement, China called on the Netherlands to "immediately correct its wrongdoings" and said the restrictions imposed in the name of national security were in fact trade restrictions that would harm both Dutch and Chinese companies.

Schreinemacher said she expected about 20 licence applications per year, representing a "limited part of the total product portfolio of the companies that fall under this rule".

ASML has been restricted from selling EUV machines without a licence under an international agreement known as the Wassenaar Arrangement.

European Union countries share a common trade policy and generally use the Wassenaar Arrangement to determine which exports are restricted on security grounds.

The new Dutch list may later be adopted by other European countries or added to the EU list, though few European firms export high-end chipmaking equipment.

German manufacturers supply essential parts to ASML, including lasers made by Trumpf and lenses made by Zeiss, among others.

Reporting by Toby Sterling; Editing by Louise Heavens and Mark Potter

https://www.reuters.com/technology/amid ... 023-06-30/
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