THE DAILY NEWS

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"New York offshore wind projects scrapped, along with promise of local jobs - GE Vernova was to build turbines at Port of Coeymans, but that is canceled for now"

By Rick Karlin, Albany, New York Times Union

April 22, 2024

COEYMANS — Just over a year ago, state and corporate executives were heralding what they said could be some 870 high-paying jobs at the Port of Coeymans that would involve assembling offshore wind turbine engines and blades built by GE Vernova and LM Wind Power.

But last week, those jobs vanished — at least for now — before they were ever created.


That’s because two major offshore wind farms that were going to use the port as a fabrication area canceled their plans.

However, executives at the Port of Coeymans say they intend to continue expanding despite the cancellation of the Attentive and Community Offshore wind projects off the coast of Long Island.

The cancellations were just the latest of several similar reversals along the East Coast over the last year that illustrate the variables and cost challenges facing the push by both New York and the Biden administration to develop coastal wind as a major energy source.

Both the 1,314-megawatt Community Offshore project proposed by RWE, as well as the 1,404-megawatt Attentive project from Rise Power and Light and the French energy giant Total were canceled last week.

The news was listed on the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority’s website, and was first reported by Politico.

“No final awards will be made … and NYSERDA will look to advance a future competitive solicitation,” the agency stated on its website.

The reason cited was GE Vernova’s pivot from a new 18-megawatt turbine to their existing 15.5-megawatt device.

Without the larger turbines, developers would have to build more wind towers, which would add to the cost.

The Port of Coeymans had initially been identified as the facility where GE Vernova was going to build some of their turbines and blades, as well as LM Wind Power blades.

But with the Attentive project also halted, at least in the near term the port won’t be hosting a turbine factory.

Port officials, though, stressed that work is proceeding for two other wind projects that are currently under construction off Long Island: Empire Wind from Equinor and Sunrise from Orsted, two Scandinavian companies that are major global developers of offshore wind farms.

Both the Port of Coeymans and GE Vernova said they haven’t given up on the idea of building turbines and blades in Coeymans.

“The offshore wind industry still presents a tremendous opportunity for New York state,” Carver Companies Chief Operating Officer Nick Laraway said in a statement.

The Carver Companies owns and operates the Port of Coeymans.

“The Port of Coeymans will continue supporting offshore wind projects Sunrise Wind and Empire Wind as announced by the state earlier this year,” Laraway added.

The port is handling some of the steel needed for the Sunrise project, and will supply aggregate stone for Empire Wind.

The number of people working on the steel and aggregate supplies at the Port of Coeymans wasn’t immediately available.

GE Vernova also said it remains committed to the Port of Coeymans as a site for any future construction needs.

The wind developers said their cancellation followed a change in plans by GE Vernova: The power spinoff of General Electric Co. earlier this year said it was focusing on producing more “workhorse” 15.5-megawatt turbines rather than the newer and more complex 18-MW variant.

The company said there is plenty of demand for the 15.5-megawatt models as well as the 3- and 6-megawatt turbines it builds for land-based wind farms.

The Port of Coeymans isn’t the only spot along the Hudson River in the Capital Region to be buffeted by what has become a volatile offshore wind industry.

Three and a half years ago, local politicians and business boosters cheered news that the Port of Albany, about nine miles north of Coeymans, would host a turnkey factory for the construction of the massive steel towers that support the offshore turbines to be used in Equinor’s projects.

But a year later, port officials said the costs of building the factory had grown from early estimates of $350 million to $604 million.

For now, the site is prepared and shovel-ready, but no construction has started due to a lack of funds.


Both Coeymans and Albany, though, remain prime spots for wind development, with lower costs than the New York City area and access to the Hudson River, where barges can haul items like towers and turbines to wind farm locations off the Atlantic Coast.

“The fundamentals of both Coeymans and the Port of Albany are both compelling,” remarked Fred Zalcman, director of the NY Offshore Wind Alliance, a trade group of wind developers.

“Even if this didn’t pan out, I do believe there will be other opportunities down the road,” he said.

Steve Hughes contributed to this report.

https://www.timesunion.com/business/art ... 0headlines
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Al Jazeera

"Yemen’s Houthis launch attacks on US, Israeli vessels as warships defend"


25 APRIL 2024

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi armed group says it attacked US and Israeli vessels, with a Western coalition of warships defending amid the continuing fallout from the war on Gaza.

Yahya Saree, the group’s military spokesman, said in a video address late on Wednesday that the Houthis hit the Maersk Yorktown cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden.

The US military confirmed that the Houthis launched an antiship ballistic missile from their territory towards the vessel, which it identified as a “US-flagged, owned, and operated vessel with 18 US and four Greek crew members”.

“There were no injuries or damage reported by US, coalition, or commercial ships,” the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement.

The Greek Ministry of National Defence said on Thursday that one of the country’s military ships serving in the European Union’s naval mission to counter the Houthis in the Red Sea intercepted two drones launched towards a commercial ship from Yemen.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) had earlier confirmed an incident some 72 nautical miles (133km) southeast of the port of Djibouti in the Gulf of Aden.

Saree said the group targeted the Israeli ship MSC Veracruz in the Indian Ocean and launched projectiles at a US warship.

The US military said within two hours of the attack on the Maersk Yorktown, its forces “successfully engaged and destroyed” four drones over Yemen.

“These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for US, coalition, and merchant vessels,” it said.

The Houthis, who support the Palestinian armed group Hamas, have been launching attacks on vessels in waters near their shores since November in a stated claim to stop Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children.

The group gradually expanded its attacks from Israeli-linked ships to US and UK-owned commercial vessels and warships as Washington mobilised a maritime coalition to defend against the attacks, and along with the British military targeted Yemeni soil with numerous air raids.

According to the US Maritime Administration, in addition to seizing a commercial vessel in November and sinking a UK-owned ship in March, the Houthis have launched more than 50 attacks on shipping since November.

The Houthi strikes have reduced in frequency in recent months as the group appears to have exhausted its stockpiles of missiles and drones after dozens of attacks while suffering from US and UK air raids.

The previous attacks claimed by the group came on April 10, when it said it hit three US and Israeli-linked ships, along with a US warship.

The Houthi attacks have forced many vessels to opt against passing through the Red Sea to use the Suez Canal, instead going around Southern Africa, which makes their journeys weeks longer and more expensive.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ye ... 0009&ei=20
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FOX News

"New poll shows Biden’s 2024 lead vanishing with Trump on trial"


Story by Brandon Gillespie

25 APRIL 2024

A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows President Biden's slight lead over former President Trump vanishing despite Trump's ongoing criminal trial in New York City.

Trump's trial, related to the 34 counts of falsifying business records he's charged with, began last week with jury selection and moved into opening arguments this week.

Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

The poll also found the presidential race to be in a dead heat with Biden and Trump tied at 46% support.

The two remain tied at 37% with the inclusion of independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (16%) and Dr. Cornel West (3%) and the Green Party's Jill Stein (3%).

Those numbers mark a significant closing of the gap for Trump, who trailed Biden 48%-45% in Quinnipiac's March poll.

However, with the inclusion of Kennedy, West and Stein, Trump held a one-point lead over Biden 39%-38%.

Biden's job approval remained dismally low at 35% support, down from 37% in March, while 61% said they disapprove of his job performance, up from 59%.

Regarding the charges Trump faces in his ongoing New York trial, a plurality of 46% said they believe the former president did something illegal, while 45% said he didn't.

However, 27% believe he did something unethical but not illegal, and 18% believe he did nothing wrong.

If Trump were to be convicted on the charges, 21% said they would be less likely to vote for him, 62% said it would not affect their vote and 15% said they would be more likely to vote for him.

Trump has argued the trial is pure politics, a "political persecution," and he maintains his innocence.

The former president, the first ever to be a defendant in a criminal trial, vowed to "tell the truth" if he takes the stand.

He has also argued the trial is unfairly keeping him from the campaign trail, giving Biden an advantage.

Fox News' Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 0009&ei=39
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Business Insider

"The US secretly slipped ATACMS to Ukraine with more to come, putting high-value Russian targets in danger"


Story by jepstein@businessinsider.com (Jake Epstein)

25 APRIL 2024

* US lawmakers have finally cleared the way for Ukraine to receive additional security assistance.

* Officials say as part of the influx in weaponry, Ukraine will receive a fresh batch of ATACMS.

* Kyiv used these long-range missiles to batter Russian helicopters in multiple strikes last year.


The US is slated to send Ukraine more of the powerful long-range tactical ballistic missiles that Kyiv's forces have used to devastate Russian airfields in strikes deep behind the front lines.

President Joe Biden on Wednesday cleared the last obstacle for Ukraine to receive additional aid, including MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems, also known as ATACMS, as part of a crucial influx of military aid to the country.

Ukraine secretly received a shipment of ATACMS earlier this year and recently used them in long-range strikes, according to multiple reports, and US lawmakers have suggested that more of the deadly missiles could be on their way to Kyiv within a matter of days.

Ukraine has previously demonstrated it could effectively target Russia's high-value assets in the rear with ATACMS, which experts say presents a significant dilemma for Moscow.

More such missiles could allow Kyiv to continue this trend.

"This is going to cause the Russians to change a lot of their strategy and tactics," Dan Rice, a former US Army artillery officer, told Business Insider.

Throughout the war, Ukraine has routinely pressed Washington to provide ATACMS so it could hit high-value Russian targets deep behind enemy lines.

After secretly obtaining a small number of the missiles from the US, Kyiv eventually debuted them last fall by striking two Russian airfields in occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.

Kyiv used the M39 ATACMS variant in those attacks.

A highly lethal cluster missile with a range of around 100 miles, the M39 is packed with 950 anti-personnel and anti-materiel M74 bomblets, which are released mid-flight and dispersed over a large area, giving the weapon the ability to cause significant damage.

The two strikes destroyed more than a dozen Russian helicopters, assets critical to Moscow's operations, as well as an air-defense missile launcher, vehicles, and ammunition depots, according to Western intelligence.

After the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked that ATACMS had "proven themselves."

Since last fall, there has not been any public confirmation from Kyiv or Washington of additional Ukrainian strikes involving the missiles.

But on Wednesday, The New York Times and Reuters reported that the Biden administration had secretly shipped long-range ATACMS variants to Ukraine earlier this month as part of a $300 million security assistance package announced in March.

Kyiv then immediately used the missiles to strike a Russian military airfield in the occupied Crimean peninsula last week, US officials told the outlets.

Over the weekend, House lawmakers passed legislation that requires the transfer of additional ATACMS to Ukraine as part of a crucial $61 billion aid package for the war-torn country that has spent months in limbo.

With this legislation having finally cleared its toughest hurdle, Sen. Mark Werner, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that he hoped ATACMS would be in transit by the end of this week.

And after speaking with Biden on Monday, Zelenskyy said, with regards to an agreement on ATACMS, that "all the details have been finalized."

It is unclear exactly which ATACMS variants Ukraine will receive going forward.

Beyond the 100-mile-range M39, the US has two other versions that can both travel up to 190 miles; one ATACMS variant scatters some 300 little bomblets, while the other has a unitary warhead.

Ukraine has repeatedly pressed Washington for the longest-range versions of the missile, which were reportedly used in last week's strikes in Crimea.

It's unclear if Kyiv used the cluster missile variant or the one with a unitary warhead in the attack to hammer Russian air-defense systems and radar stations.

All of the ATACMS can be fired from Ukraine's existing inventory of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, but different ATACMS variants could be used to go after different targets, said Rice, who previously served as a special advisor to Ukrainian military leadership.

The cluster variants, which are known as area weapons, can be used to target large troop concentrations — exposed or in trenches — while also destroying fuel, ammunition, and armored vehicles kept in the immediate vicinity.

The unitary warheads, on the other hand, can be used to go after targets like bridges, command and control facilities, supply depots, or well-protected bunkers because they release one large explosion instead of dispersing submunitions over a broader area.

"Having the combination just makes these HIMARS launchers more lethal [and] puts more pressure on the Russians in all of the areas within 300 kilometers of the front lines," Rice, a longtime advocate for sending various cluster munitions to Ukraine and now the President of American University Kyiv, said.

Regardless of the variant, the arrival of additional ATACMS will likely compel Moscow to change its strategy and tactics.

Experts previously assessed that Russia's military leadership will have to balance how to protect and relocate vulnerable assets that are within range of the missiles without actually reducing their combat value.

Rice said the anticipated arrival of more ATACMS could force the Russians to push its supply depots, command and control nodes, and attack helicopters even farther from the front lines.

By doing this, he added, Ukraine is going to make it "very difficult" for Moscow to wage war against Kyiv's forces.

The passage of additional funding for Ukraine this week comes at a critical time for Kyiv's forces, who have been facing an increasingly grim outlook on the battlefield as they run low on much-needed artillery ammunition and air-defense munitions.

Russia, meanwhile, has made notable advances over the past few months.

US, Ukrainian, and Western officials, as well as war experts, have warned that without additional security assistance from Washington, Kyiv may continue to lose ground.

Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters at a Tuesday briefing that with the passage of the Ukraine aid package, the US can at last "surge life-saving security assistance" to Kyiv "as quickly as possible."

"Much more to follow in the days ahead," he added, "but needless to say we understand the importance and the urgency and are doing everything we can to be poised to respond quickly."

After Biden signed the legislation into law on Wednesday, the Pentagon immediately announced a $1 billion security assistance package for Ukraine.

While the statement did not specifically mention ATACMS, it said the package contains "additional ammunition" for the HIMARS, which could include ATACMS.

This massive military aid package also includes air-defense interceptors, artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and other lethal equipment.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin "triumphs in Ukraine, the next move of Russian forces could very well be a direct attack on a NATO ally," Biden said on Wednesday.

"That's why we're supporting — and surging support now to — Ukraine, to stop Putin from drawing the United States into war in Europe and in the future."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/th ... 0009&ei=57
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RIGZONE

"Oil Rises on Weaker US Dollar"


by Bloomberg | Jordan Fitzgerald and Julia Fanzeres

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Oil erased earlier losses to top $83 a barrel as a weaker dollar boosted commodities priced in the currency.

Strengthening equities markets also supported crude futures, which spent much of the session trading in a narrow range after a closely watched measure of US inflation soured sentiment.

“Oil markets are still trying to find an equilibrium price due to the lack of geopolitical headlines and data releases,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics.

Crude remains higher this year, aided by supply curbs from OPEC+ and tensions in the Middle East, although prices have pulled back from recent highs as geopolitical risks eased.

The options skews remain in a bearish tilt toward puts, while the world’s biggest oil exchange-traded fund — the US Oil Fund — posted its largest daily outflow on record.

The demand outlook also remains clouded, with a weakness showing in some refined products.

Profit margins for turning crude into diesel in Asia were near the lowest level in nearly a year.

Prices:

WTI for June delivery rose 76 cents to settle at $83.57 a barrel in New York.

Brent for June settlement rose 99 cents to settle at $89.01 a barrel.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_r ... 4-article/
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CNBC

"10-year Treasury yield leaps to highest level in more than 5 months after GDP report"


Jesse Pound @/IN/JESSE-POUND @JESSERPOUND Brian Evans @BRIANSYNDICATES Sophie Kiderlin @IN/SOPHIE-KIDERLIN-B327B914A/ @SKIDERLIN

PUBLISHED THU, APR 25 2024

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after the first-quarter GDP report showed slowing growth and rising consumer prices.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4.8 basis points to 4.702%, while the rate on the 2-year Treasury gained 6.1 basis points to 4.998%.

At their session highs, the yields on both notes hit their highest levels since November.

The GDP report showed growth of 1.6%, which was lower than the 2.4% expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

Along with the downbeat growth rate for the quarter, the report showed consumer prices increased at a 3.4% pace, well above the previous quarter’s 1.8% advance.

This raised concern over persistent inflation and put into question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates anytime soon, even with the economy slowing.


The Fed is due to convene for its policy meeting next week.

Markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged then, with traders pricing in the first rate cut for September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

However, investors will be closely watching for any fresh clues from policymakers about when they expect rates to be cut and how many reductions they expect to take place this year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/us-trea ... -data.html
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REUTERS

"Wall Street stocks fall as weak GDP growth spreads rate-cut gloom"


By Chibuike Oguh

April 25, 2024

Summary

* Alphabet, Microsoft advance in extended hours after results

* IBM drops after HashiCorp deal, disappointing Q1 revenue

* Caterpillar falls on downbeat Q2 sales forecast

* Indexes end down: Dow 0.98%, S&P 0.46%, Nasdaq 0.64%


NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks closed lower on Thursday as markets were stunned by data showing slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth and persistent inflation, coupled with a sell-off in large cap stocks triggered by disappointing results from Meta Platforms.

Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated, dampening hopes that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates this year.

Disappointing results from Meta, whose shares plunged nearly 11%, also weighed on market sentiment.

Three other Magnificent Seven stocks, including Alphabet, Amazon.com and Microsoft, finished lower.

However, shares of Alphabet and Microsoft were advancing in extended hours trading after both companies reported quarterly results that beat Wall Street estimates.

Intel forecast second-quarter revenue and profit below market estimates, sending its shares down 8% in extended hours trading.

Equities in the communications sector, dragged down by Meta, were the biggest losers in S&P 500.

Other categories of stocks that lost ground are in healthcare, real estate, financials, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary sectors.

"The GDP numbers definitely puts a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings," said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 375.12 points, or 0.98%, to 38,085.80, the S&P 500 lost 23.21 points, or 0.46%, to 5,048.42 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 100.99 points, or 0.64%, to 15,611.76.

Money markets are pricing in just about 36 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed this year, down from about 150 bps seen at the start of the year, according to LSEG data.

Separately, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to still tight labor market conditions.

The March Personal Consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday.

"The double whammy was also the inflation number that came in stronger than expected so there wasn't really a silver lining in that report; it's still positive in absolute terms but relative to high expectations it was disappointing," St. Aubin added.

International Business Machines fell 8% after it announced a $6.4 billion deal to buy HashiCorp alongside its first-quarter results, in which revenue missed estimates.

Southwest Airlines slid nearly 7% as the carrier slashed its projections for new aircraft deliveries from Boeing in 2024 for the third time.

Caterpillar shed 7% after it cut second quarter sales forecasts as demand for its construction equipment eases from last year's boom.

Rising gold prices helped Newmont, the world's largest bullion miner, to report first quarter profit that beat estimates.

Its shares gained 12%.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE.

There were 72 new highs and 85 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 1,410 stocks rose and 2,819 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and seven new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 37 new highs and 203 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.7 billion shares, compared with the 11.07 billion average for the last 20 days.

Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; additional reporting by Shristi Achar A and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Aurora Ellis

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futu ... 024-04-25/
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REUTERS

"US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall"


By Reuters

April 25, 2024

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to still tight labor market conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended April 20, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week.

Claims have been bouncing around in a 194,000-225,000 range this year.

Companies are hoarding workers after experiencing difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, and are enjoying higher profit gains because of strong pricing power.

Low layoffs are keeping wage growth elevated, sustaining consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, declined 15,000 to 1.781 million during the week ending April 13, the claims report showed.

The so-called continuing claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed households for April's unemployment rate.

Continuing claims fell between the March and April survey periods.

The unemployment rate slipped to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 024-04-25/
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REUTERS

"Imports hold back US economy in first quarter, inflation flares up"


By Lucia Mutikani

April 25, 2024

Summary

* First-quarter GDP increases at 1.6% rate

* Consumer spending slows, trade deficit widens

* Core PCE inflation accelerates at 3.7% pace

* Weekly jobless claims fall 5,000 to 207,000


WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter amid a surge in imports and small build-up of unsold goods at businesses, signs of solid demand that together with an acceleration in inflation reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September.

The cooler-than-expected growth reported by the Commerce Department in its snapshot of first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which also reflected a downshift in government spending, exaggerated the moderation in economic activity.

Domestic demand, a better growth measure, was strong as consumer spending moderated slightly while business investment picked up and the housing recovery gained steam.

Trade and inventories are the most volatile GDP components, and are often subject to revision when the government updates its growth estimates.

Fed officials are expected to leave rates unchanged at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting next week.

"The Fed will likely see the GDP report as solid, while the upward surprise to inflation will support the central bank's case for waiting longer before cutting rates," said Daniel Vernazza, chief international economist at UniCredit.

GDP increased at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2022, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP would rise at a 2.4% rate, with estimates ranging from a 1.0% pace to a 3.1% rate.

The economy grew at a 3.4% rate in the fourth quarter.

The first-quarter growth pace was below what U.S. central bank officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%.

Excluding inventories, government spending and trade, the economy grew at a 3.1% rate after expanding at a 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter.

That also dispels the notion that government spending was fueling the economy.

The U.S. economy, which has outperformed the economies of other advanced nations, is being supported by a resilient labor market.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters in an interview that she was focused on consumer and business spending.

"Those two elements of final demand came in line with last year's growth rate ... so this is the underlying strength of the U.S. economy that showed continuing robust strength and an economy firing on all cylinders."

Price pressures heated up by the most in a year, with a measure of inflation in the economy increasing at a 3.1% rate after rising at a 1.9% pace in the October-December quarter.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy surged at a 3.7% rate after increasing at a 2.0% pace in the fourth quarter.

The so-called core PCE price index is one of the inflation measures tracked by the Fed for its 2% target.

Inflation was boosted by increases in the costs of services like transportation, insurance and housing, which offset a decline in goods prices such as motor vehicles and parts.

The strong readings pose an upside risk to March PCE inflation data due to be released on Friday, though much would depend on revisions to the January and February data.

The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July.

It has raised the policy rate by 525 basis points since March of 2022.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower.

The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies.

U.S. Treasury yields rose.

TIGHT LABOR MARKET

A significant slowdown in the labor market is not yet evident.

The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report showed initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 in the week ending April 20.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, declined 15,000 to 1.781 million during the week ending April 13.

The so-called continuing claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed households for April's unemployment rate.

Continuing claims fell between the March and April survey periods, implying the unemployment rate was likely unchanged after dipping to 3.8% last month from 3.9% in February.

Low layoffs are keeping wages high, sustaining consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Consumer spending grew at a still-solid 2.5% rate, slowing from the 3.3% growth pace rate notched in the October-December quarter.

Spending was driven by healthcare, financial services and insurance, which more than offset a decline in goods, including motor vehicles and gasoline.


Spending is likely to gradually cool this year.

Lower-income households have depleted their COVID-19 pandemic savings and are largely relying on debt to fund purchases.

Recent data and comments from bank executives indicated that lower-income borrowers were increasingly struggling to keep up with their loan payments.

Though income increased at a $407.1 billion rate compared with the fourth quarter's $230.2 billion pace, the gains were eroded by inflation and higher taxes.

Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation and taxes rose at a 1.1% rate versus a 2.0% pace in the October-December quarter.


The saving rate decreased to 3.6% from 4.0% in the prior quarter.

"The recent stickiness in inflation lends downside risk to the near-term forecast for consumption as it could weigh on real disposable income," said Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

Inventories were whittled down, rising at a $35.4 billion rate after increasing at a $54.9 billion pace in the fourth quarter.

Inventories subtracted 0.35 percentage point from GDP growth.

Part of the spending was satiated with imports, which resulted in the trade deficit widening to $973.2 billion from $918.5 billion in the October-December quarter.

Trade chopped off 0.86 percentage point from GDP growth.

Government spending decelerated to a 1.2% rate from the 4.6% pace notched in the October-December quarter amid a decline in federal government outlays, mostly defense.

Business spending picked up as companies invested in artificial intelligence.

Investment in nonresidential structures like factories contracted for the first time in more than year as the boost from policies by the Biden administration to bring the production of semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. faded.

Residential investment recorded its fastest pace of growth since the fourth quarter of 2020, thanks to rising home sales and housing construction, despite higher mortgage rates.

"Don't underestimate this economy," said Shannon Grein, an economist at Well Fargo.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; additional reporting by Alessandra Galloni; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-e ... 024-04-25/
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REUTERS

"Yellen says US economy strong, all options open on China's overcapacity"


By Alessandra Galloni, David Lawder and Andrea Shalal

April 25, 2024

Summary

* Yellen: Q1 GDP data may be revised up; spending, investment strong

* Inflation to continue to ebb despite Q1 flare-up, Yellen says

* Yellen: tapping interest on Russian assets can win G7 support


WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Thursday that U.S. economic growth was likely stronger than suggested by weaker-than-expected data on first-quarter output and said the Biden administration was keeping all options open to respond to threats from China's excess industrial capacity.

In a wide-ranging Reuters Next interview, Yellen also said that a U.S. proposal for using the interest earnings from $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine could win broad support from G7 allies.

Yellen said U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter could be revised higher after more data is in hand and inflation will ease to more normal levels after a clutch of "peculiar" factors held the economy to its weakest showing in nearly two years.

"The U.S. economy continues to perform very, very well," Yellen said in an interview with Reuters, responding to the Commerce Department's report showing that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 1.6% annualized rate last quarter.

That was below the 2.4% estimated by economists and less than half the pace in the fourth quarter of 2023 - thanks to substantial drags from trade and private inventories.

The report also showed a worrisome surge in inflation, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy rising at a 3.7% annual rate after a 2.0% pace in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Yellen downplayed the inflation jump and said she did not see that as indicating that unemployment needed to increase or other areas of the economy needed to cool to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target.

"The fundamentals here are in line with inflation continuing back down to normal levels," Yellen said.

Fighting inflation remained President Joe Biden's top priority, Yellen said, highlighting his administration's efforts to reduce healthcare, energy and housing costs.

But Biden, a Democrat, has struggled to translate U.S. economic strength into voter support ahead of the November presidential election.

Republican challenger Donald Trump led Biden by seven percentage points in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll when voters were asked which candidate would be better for the economy.

"What I focus on most is the strength of consumer spending and investment spending," Yellen said.

"Those two elements of final demand came in in line with last year's growth rate ... so this is the underlying strength of the U.S. economy that showed continuing robust strength."

"The headline figure was off a little bit but for reasons that are peculiar and not really indicative of underlying strength," she added.

Indeed, a number of private economists said the GDP data likely overstated any weakness in an economy that had grown at above the rate most see as its potential for nearly two years, despite aggressive interest rate hikes over that span by the U.S. Federal Reserve aimed at quashing inflation.

Yellen said dollar strength has been another byproduct of U.S. growth and tight monetary policy.

She acknowledged that this has put some pressure on other countries, but said currency interventions should occur only in "very rare and exceptional circumstances," when markets are disorderly with excessive volatility.

She declined to comment on the Japanese yen's value when asked whether it was out of line with fundamentals.

Last week, the U.S., Japan and South Korea agreed to consult closely on currencies, acknowledging concerns from Tokyo and Seoul over their currencies recent sharp declines against the dollar.

CHINA OVERCAPACITY

Yellen told Reuters no option was "off the table" for dealing with one threat to the U.S. economy - overproduction in China, which was hurting manufacturers in numerous countries.

She said that while Chinese policymakers have acknowledged they have a problem with excess industrial capacity for electric vehicles, solar panels and other clean energy goods, they need to address it.

The issue was "discussed intensively" last week at a U.S.-China meeting on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, she said.

Asked about potential for new tariffs or other actions to protect U.S. producers from an expected flood of Chinese exports, Yellen said she would not eliminate any options as a possible response.

She said Chinese overproduction threatens the viability of manufacturers in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Mexico and India but the problem won't be resolved "in a day or a week."

"So it's important that China recognize the concern and begin to act to address it," Yellen said.

"But we don't want our industry wiped out in the meantime, so I wouldn't want to take anything off the table."

The Biden administration is completing a review of the "Section 301" unfair trade tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by former President Donald Trump in 2018, which U.S. officials have said could lead to higher tariffs on some products.

Biden last week called for the review to triple the Section 301 duties on Chinese steel to 25%.

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai also told senators that the U.S. needed to take "early action, decisive action" to protect the fledgling American EV sector from Chinese imports.

U.S. tariffs on Chinese vehicle imports are now about 27.5%, and few Chinese EVs are sold in the U.S. at the moment.

RUSSIAN ASSET PLANS

Yellen said that a proposal under discussion by finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) industrial democracies to harness earnings from frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine can be achieved without an outright confiscation of those assets, allaying the concerns of some countries.

Yellen welcomed what she called a "very constructive step" taken by the European Union to segregate the proceeds from assets held by Brussels-based Euroclear and transfer them to Ukraine, noting future interest could also be pulled forward to back loans to Ukraine.

"This is an approach that could be broadly supported by countries that are concerned about the seizure of assets, and some of the interest could be brought forward through, for example, a loan," Yellen said.

Yellen said the approach was among several options being discussed by G7 countries ahead of a leaders summit in June, adding, "it certainly belongs on the list."

The U.S. approach, led by deputy national security adviser Daleep Singh, is gaining momentum among the G7 nations, two officials from the group told Reuters earlier on Thursday.

Most of the Russian assets held by Euroclear have now been converted to cash, Yellen told Reuters. G7 officials say the assets could generate around $5 billion a year in interest.

Reporting by Alessandra Galloni, David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; Additional reporting by Dan Burns and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Writing by David Lawder, Andrea Shalal and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea Ricci

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yell ... 024-04-25/
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