THE CAPE CHARLES MIRROR MAY 8, 2024 AT 6:04 PM
Paul Plante says:
And going back to this GRANT GRIFTERISM going on here some 476.2 miles to the north of Cape Charles which has resulted in a controversy splitting my small community, which particular controversy is a direct outcome of what happens when BIDEN INFRASTRUCTURE MONEY is mindlessly made available to small towns like mine for alleged “infrastructure” improvements, in this case allegedly providing municipal water to a school that already has its own water supply, which controversy dividing the community in this case involves what I would say is a CLASSIC TEXTBOOK CASE of blatant TAXPAYER FRAUD with these two WIIA grants, one to put something in, the other to tear that something back out and replace it with something else again, which project is going to reap that class of persons I call GRANT GRIFTERS (con artists: someone who swindles people out of money through fraud; as in “I see these consultants as grifters who prey upon people”) a minimum of $395,000 for “engineering,” plus $140,000 for what they call “construction observation,” with another $100,000 for what they are calling “legal/administrative” costs, plus $60,000 for what they call “geotechnical,” $65,000 for “survey and mapping,” and $7,500 for “environmental,” whatever in fact that might be, so all in all a nice paycheck for the consultants, who have an inside political track as middlemen for these state and federal grants, which is why these GRANT GRIFTERS use these small towns like mine as an excuse to tap into more state and federal money, no questions asked and EVERYBODY involved is very happy, while the taxpayers footing the bills are getting royally screwed with no voice whatsoever in the matter, period, as how these grants are obtained is a totally closed process, and to get their hands on what they consider “free money” these GRANT GRIFTERS are promising them, in this case a windfall of riches into their pockets courtesy of the federal government in Washington, D.C. to the tune of $670,367 from Joe Biden and $1,693,000 from Kirsten Gillibrand to tear out what was paid for by a $90,000 NYS WIIA grant in May of 2023, the town board has to promise to put their local taxpayers in hock for a certain percentage of the project cost, whether those taxpayers want or need the project, in this case a public water supply for a school that already has a public water supply, without we who are the taxpayers having any say in the matter, period, largely because, as was said above, the process of actually getting that money, being entirely political in nature, is going on behind closed doors with absolutely no transparency for the affected taxpayers of whom I am one, this following puts the matter of the controversy into its proper perspective, to wit:
POESTENKILL CLARION, CHRONICLE & GAZETTE
Dedicated to the protection and preservation of intellectual liberty in Poestenkill
May 8th 2024 Edition
“THE WATER DISTRICT NO 2 FLIM-FLAM – ON WHY I AM NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO VOTE ‘YES’ ON WATER DISTRICT NO. 2 IN POESTENKILL”
Recently, I was approached by a group of well-meaning citizens in Poestenkill, good people all, who mistaking me for a mindless eejit whose mind got retarded from reading too many engineering books, which everybody knows pollutes the purity of an otherwise empty mind and renders the book reader too stupid to understand what is going on around him in the real world the well-meaning citizens reside in, sought to cure what they thought was my benighted ignorance concerning water district no. 2 and its innumerable benefits to the town, including luring a CHIP FAB here, which needs a lot of water, because to them, I have indicated that I am not likely to vote YES for Poestenkill’s water district no. 2, when everybody else knows that that is the right thing to do, or else Poestenkill wouldn’t be doing it.
And taking very seriously what these people concerned for my health and well-being were telling me about these innumerable advantages that will come to Poestenkill because everybody knows, apparently except for me, that the town was extremely fortunate to receive this level of governmental funding for the project, 95% of the total with $5.2 million in tax dollars being returned to Poestenkill for investment in critical infrastructure that will ensure that a public water source will be consistently tested and treated rather than each individual homeowner having to test to see what contamination is lurking in their pipes, I informed these people who were adamant that Troy does test the public water (along with Brunswick and Poestenkill) daily with more detailed tests at other frequencies and provides annual water quality reports, that I would take the matter under advisement, and having done so, and having actually read through every page of the Laberge Report that forms the basis of these grant requests, along with Troy’s 2022 water report, and a Documentary History of American Water-works article titled “Two Centuries of Public Service – History of Troy Water Works, Troy, New York,” and the Capital Region PRISM AIS Lake Survey Report for the Tomhannock dated August 18th and 26th 2020 and “A STUDY OF LAKES IN RENSSELAER COUNTY, NEW YORK WITH PROPOSALS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT – FINAL REPORT” by Donald Scavia, Project Director, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, December, 1972, @p.100, where we were informed that the north end of the reservoir was stratified throughout the summer as long ago as 1972, and in the stratified section the hypolimnetic (below 12 meters) dissolved oxygen was one ppm at the end of June, while it was totally, depleted a month later and remained that way the remainder of the project, which is a sign of contamination and an important factor in determining water quality and treatment process, while Secchi disk readings indicated a fairly extensive algal bloom, and we learned therein that the reservoir was being chemically treated with copper sulphate, a powerful oxidizing agent and depending upon the dose ingested in drinking water, can lead to widespread cellular damage with the systemic effects of poisoning being seen primarily on red blood cells, gastrointestinal system, kidneys and cardiovascular system, and if the conditions in the reservoir’s watershed remained uncontrolled, which they have, it may become necessary to increase the extent of chlorination needed to control the bacteria of the water which will increase costs and decrease. the aesthetic nature of the drinking water, while even then, in 1972, the City of Troy was already having problems in the filtration treatment of the water due to increased algae productivity, and the TOMHANNOCK SPILLWAY DAM I PHASE I INSPECTION REPORT by the NEW YORK DISTRICT CORPS OF ENGINEERS from August of 1981, which report contains an extensive history of the Tomhannock dam and the fact that in 1917, just eleven (11) years after the reservoir was first out into operation in 1906, the dam nearly failed because it being corrupt Troy, it was shoddily built, I would have to say that I would have to be the world’s biggest idiot and very stupid, to boot, to vote YES on water district no.2 and thereby put my life, my future, my health, my well-being, and that of my community into the hands of some politicians in Troy and their crumbling infrastructure, which is as stupid as buying into a shoddily-built, crumbling condominium complex in Florida, and then getting slapped with a million-dollar repair bill for your trouble.
Water district no. 2 is NOT an investment in Poestenkill’s future; to the contrary, it is an investment in stupidity.
Stay tuned, more to come.
http://www.capecharlesmirror.com/paul-p ... ent-925104
POLITICS
Re: POLITICS
RIGZONE
"Oil Edges Higher on Technicals as Stockpiles Fall"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Thursday, May 09, 2024
Oil edged higher as key technical levels provided a floor for losses while investors digested a mixed US inventories report.
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% to settle above $79 a barrel after a monthlong slide that brought prices to the lowest since mid-March.
The 100-day moving average stemmed crude’s losses, while the nine-day relative strength index indicated the selloff was overdone.
Bolstering the technical rally was a report showed US stockpiles drew down by 1.36 million barrels last week.
“The next key area of resistance is between $80 to $81,” where the “psychologically important level converges with the 200-day moving average,” according to Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
In recent days, key timespreads that serve as a gauge for supply and demand strengthened to as high as 50 cents after earlier having contracted as low as 26 cents earlier this week.
The prompt spread has oscillated in a wide range as markets continue to search for direction.
Oil has been broadly losing steam since early last month as tensions ease in the Middle East.
OPEC+ supply is once again in focus, with key member Russia pumping above target before the cartel meets next month.
The group is widely expected to extend output curbs when producers convene June 1.
Separately, the Biden administration raised the price it’s willing to pay to refill America’s emergency oil reserves.
The Energy Department will pay as much as $79.99 a barrel, the first time an explicit ceiling has been set.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose 27 cents to settle at $79.26 a barrel in New York.
Brent for July settlement gained 30 cents to settle at $83.88 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_e ... 6-article/
"Oil Edges Higher on Technicals as Stockpiles Fall"
by Bloomberg | Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
Thursday, May 09, 2024
Oil edged higher as key technical levels provided a floor for losses while investors digested a mixed US inventories report.
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% to settle above $79 a barrel after a monthlong slide that brought prices to the lowest since mid-March.
The 100-day moving average stemmed crude’s losses, while the nine-day relative strength index indicated the selloff was overdone.
Bolstering the technical rally was a report showed US stockpiles drew down by 1.36 million barrels last week.
“The next key area of resistance is between $80 to $81,” where the “psychologically important level converges with the 200-day moving average,” according to Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
In recent days, key timespreads that serve as a gauge for supply and demand strengthened to as high as 50 cents after earlier having contracted as low as 26 cents earlier this week.
The prompt spread has oscillated in a wide range as markets continue to search for direction.
Oil has been broadly losing steam since early last month as tensions ease in the Middle East.
OPEC+ supply is once again in focus, with key member Russia pumping above target before the cartel meets next month.
The group is widely expected to extend output curbs when producers convene June 1.
Separately, the Biden administration raised the price it’s willing to pay to refill America’s emergency oil reserves.
The Energy Department will pay as much as $79.99 a barrel, the first time an explicit ceiling has been set.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose 27 cents to settle at $79.26 a barrel in New York.
Brent for July settlement gained 30 cents to settle at $83.88 a barrel.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_e ... 6-article/
Re: POLITICS
REUTERS
"US weekly jobless claims highest in more than eight months as labor market eases"
By Lucia Mutikani
May 9, 2024
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims increase 22,000 to 231,000
* Continuing claims rise 17,000 to 1.785 million
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in more than eight months, offering more evidence that the labor market was steadily cooling.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy's health, followed news last week that the economy added the fewest jobs in six months in April, while job openings dropped to a three-year low in March.
Ebbing labor market momentum has put two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year back on the table.
"The labor market shows some signs of rebalancing with fewer job openings posted around the country, and now company layoffs are picking up, hinting at caution on the part of companies as they weigh the outlook for the second half of the year," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended May 4, the highest level since the end of last August.
The increase was the largest in nearly four months.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week.
Claims broke above the 194,000-225,000 range, which had prevailed since the start of the year.
Some of the rise last week was likely related to seasonal issues following the recently ended school spring breaks.
"Given that the varied timing of school spring breaks, and holidays like Easter and Passover, makes the seasonal adjustment process very complicated, we often see volatile readings in the seasonally adjusted data around this time of year," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan.
Unadjusted claims shot up 19,690 to 209,324 last week, with filings in New York surging by 10,248.
Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson speculated that the jump could reflect "Citigroup employees laid off in January but paid through April making their first claims."
There were also sizeable increases in applications in California, Illinois, Indiana and Texas.
Only Iowa reported a drop in claims in excess of 1,000.
Sentiment surveys including the Institute for Supply Management and the NFIB have been flagging a sharp slowdown in the labor market.
Companies, however, appear to be cutting back on hiring while largely holding on to their workers after struggling to find labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.
LABOR MARKET REBALANCING
The labor market is steadily rebalancing in the wake of 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the U.S. central bank since March 2022 to dampen demand in the overall economy.
Financial markets expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September.
A handful of economists believe the first rate cut will come in July.
Inflation data next week, which is expected to show a moderation in monthly consumer price increases after three straight months of strong readings, could offer fresh clues on the timing of the much-awaited rate cut.
The central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since July.
While economists expect the labor market to soften this year, they did not believe that last's week surge in claims was the beginning of that trend.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.785 million during the week ending April 27, the claims report showed.
"This still very low level of continuing claims is further evidence that the big jump in initial claims in early May is not the start of a persistent rise in laid-off workers but bears close watching," said Stuart Hoffman, senior economic advisor at PNC Financial.
"The labor market is becoming better balanced between demand for and supply of workers which will help moderate upward wages pressures, especially as legal immigration has risen by over 1 million in each of the past two years."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 024-05-09/
"US weekly jobless claims highest in more than eight months as labor market eases"
By Lucia Mutikani
May 9, 2024
Summary
* Weekly jobless claims increase 22,000 to 231,000
* Continuing claims rise 17,000 to 1.785 million
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in more than eight months, offering more evidence that the labor market was steadily cooling.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy's health, followed news last week that the economy added the fewest jobs in six months in April, while job openings dropped to a three-year low in March.
Ebbing labor market momentum has put two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year back on the table.
"The labor market shows some signs of rebalancing with fewer job openings posted around the country, and now company layoffs are picking up, hinting at caution on the part of companies as they weigh the outlook for the second half of the year," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended May 4, the highest level since the end of last August.
The increase was the largest in nearly four months.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week.
Claims broke above the 194,000-225,000 range, which had prevailed since the start of the year.
Some of the rise last week was likely related to seasonal issues following the recently ended school spring breaks.
"Given that the varied timing of school spring breaks, and holidays like Easter and Passover, makes the seasonal adjustment process very complicated, we often see volatile readings in the seasonally adjusted data around this time of year," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan.
Unadjusted claims shot up 19,690 to 209,324 last week, with filings in New York surging by 10,248.
Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson speculated that the jump could reflect "Citigroup employees laid off in January but paid through April making their first claims."
There were also sizeable increases in applications in California, Illinois, Indiana and Texas.
Only Iowa reported a drop in claims in excess of 1,000.
Sentiment surveys including the Institute for Supply Management and the NFIB have been flagging a sharp slowdown in the labor market.
Companies, however, appear to be cutting back on hiring while largely holding on to their workers after struggling to find labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.
LABOR MARKET REBALANCING
The labor market is steadily rebalancing in the wake of 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the U.S. central bank since March 2022 to dampen demand in the overall economy.
Financial markets expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September.
A handful of economists believe the first rate cut will come in July.
Inflation data next week, which is expected to show a moderation in monthly consumer price increases after three straight months of strong readings, could offer fresh clues on the timing of the much-awaited rate cut.
The central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since July.
While economists expect the labor market to soften this year, they did not believe that last's week surge in claims was the beginning of that trend.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.785 million during the week ending April 27, the claims report showed.
"This still very low level of continuing claims is further evidence that the big jump in initial claims in early May is not the start of a persistent rise in laid-off workers but bears close watching," said Stuart Hoffman, senior economic advisor at PNC Financial.
"The labor market is becoming better balanced between demand for and supply of workers which will help moderate upward wages pressures, especially as legal immigration has risen by over 1 million in each of the past two years."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 024-05-09/
Re: POLITICS
REUTERS
"US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falls to 7.09%, still too high to boost housing"
By Reuters
May 9, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates fell this week for the first time in more than a month amid signs of slowing economic activity, but remain too high to provide a significant boost to the housing market.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down to 7.09% as of May 9, from 7.22% last week, ending five straight weekly increases, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said in a statement on Thursday.
It averaged 6.35% during the same period a year ago.
The average rate on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.38% from 6.47% last week.
That compared to an average of 5.75% a year ago.
The decline in mortgage rates coincides with a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield following recent data showing a moderation economic and job growth.
"An environment where rates continue to hover above seven percent impacts both sellers and buyers," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
"Many potential sellers remain hesitant to list their home and part with lower mortgage rates from years prior, adversely impacting supply and keeping house prices elevated."
"These elevated house prices add to the overall affordability challenges that potential buyers face in this high-rate environment."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-3 ... 024-05-09/
"US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falls to 7.09%, still too high to boost housing"
By Reuters
May 9, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates fell this week for the first time in more than a month amid signs of slowing economic activity, but remain too high to provide a significant boost to the housing market.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down to 7.09% as of May 9, from 7.22% last week, ending five straight weekly increases, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said in a statement on Thursday.
It averaged 6.35% during the same period a year ago.
The average rate on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.38% from 6.47% last week.
That compared to an average of 5.75% a year ago.
The decline in mortgage rates coincides with a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield following recent data showing a moderation economic and job growth.
"An environment where rates continue to hover above seven percent impacts both sellers and buyers," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
"Many potential sellers remain hesitant to list their home and part with lower mortgage rates from years prior, adversely impacting supply and keeping house prices elevated."
"These elevated house prices add to the overall affordability challenges that potential buyers face in this high-rate environment."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-3 ... 024-05-09/
Re: POLITICS
REUTERS
"Fed's communications style scores well with analysts but not public"
By Howard Schneider
May 9, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - Through a tumultuous period of high inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and global instability, the U.S. Federal Reserve received relatively high marks for its monetary policy communications despite the thicket of uncertainty it has been navigating, according to a survey of academic and private-sector analysts released on Thursday.
Responses from 31 academic and 24 private Fed watchers to questions posed by the Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy gave the U.S. central bank under Fed Chair Jerome Powell a median score of B+ for its overall communications, an important aspect of central bank operations that can make monetary policy itself more or less effective.
The score was slightly lower than the median of A- the Powell-led Fed received in a 2020 survey conducted as the central bank rolled out a complicated series of programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
But it still showed the Fed's core communications tools, in particular the press conference that Powell holds after each policy meeting, playing an "extremely useful or useful" role in explaining the central bank's decisions and outlook.
More than 80% of respondents regarded Powell's press conference that way, and more than 70% said the same about the quarterly economic outlook that assembles the views of policymakers about inflation, unemployment and economic growth, and the Fed's policy statement itself.
The "dot plot" of policymakers' rate projections got a more mixed review, as it was seen as extremely useful or useful by only about half the respondents, reflecting ongoing debate about whether that particular bit of Fed communication is more confusing than clarifying.
Speeches by other members of the Fed's Board of Governors, the Fed's 12 regional bank presidents, and media coverage were seen as even less compelling, with more than 60% of respondents regarding them as only somewhat useful or not useful at all.
The survey was conducted between March 22 and April 5, as the Fed was in the midst of what turned into a resetting of expectations away from an outlook of imminent rate cuts to one of more sustained tighter monetary policy.
The switch was just the latest communications challenge Powell has faced, and he has not come off well across the board.
Views of Fed communications slipped in a New York Fed survey of Wall Street primary dealers conducted in January, though the Powell-led Fed has scored better among that group on average than when his predecessors, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, headed the central bank.
An annual Gallup poll of U.S. economic stewardship released this week also showed continued low public confidence ratings for Powell, with just 39% of respondents saying they had a "great deal or a fair amount of confidence" in him to "do or to recommend the right thing for the economy."
His latest mark was slightly higher than the 36% he got last year, a low point among Fed chiefs and a sharp decline from the nearly 60% confidence rating Powell received during the thick of the COVID-19 response when the Fed was back-stopping the economy in unprecedented ways.
It also showed a deep partisan divide, with 56% of Democrats and just 30% of Republicans voicing confidence in Powell, a veteran of past Republican administrations who has nevertheless won Fed appointments from presidents in both parties.
WEIGHT OF POWELL'S WORDS
Fed officials regard their communications as a separate instrument of policy.
The central bank issues closely edited statements after each policy meeting where the addition or deletion of an adjective can rock financial markets, and releases assorted other documents including meeting minutes and anecdotal economic reviews in between those meetings.
Fed officials also give a plethora of interviews and public speeches - perhaps too many.
Nearly 60% of respondents felt the Fed regional bank presidents should talk less, while 88% said Powell should speak the same amount or more, evidence of the continued primacy of his words despite the premium he has put on consensus.
The Brookings survey included topics beyond Fed communications, and notably found a strong two-thirds majority of respondents opposed raising the current 2% inflation target, a policy option Fed officials have roundly rejected at least for the time being.
Regarding the Fed's current approach to monetary policy, which was overhauled in 2020 and is due for review soon, there was general support for retaining its emphasis on maximum employment.
There was less support for keeping an approach to managing inflation which aims to use periods of above-target inflation to make up for times when inflation is weak - a strategy that made sense when it was adopted, after a decade of tepid price increases, but which seemed dated after the eruption of inflation to a 40-year high in 2022.
About 60% of respondents said the Fed should "substantially revise" or at least "tweak" that part of its operating framework.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds ... 024-05-09/
"Fed's communications style scores well with analysts but not public"
By Howard Schneider
May 9, 2024
WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - Through a tumultuous period of high inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and global instability, the U.S. Federal Reserve received relatively high marks for its monetary policy communications despite the thicket of uncertainty it has been navigating, according to a survey of academic and private-sector analysts released on Thursday.
Responses from 31 academic and 24 private Fed watchers to questions posed by the Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy gave the U.S. central bank under Fed Chair Jerome Powell a median score of B+ for its overall communications, an important aspect of central bank operations that can make monetary policy itself more or less effective.
The score was slightly lower than the median of A- the Powell-led Fed received in a 2020 survey conducted as the central bank rolled out a complicated series of programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
But it still showed the Fed's core communications tools, in particular the press conference that Powell holds after each policy meeting, playing an "extremely useful or useful" role in explaining the central bank's decisions and outlook.
More than 80% of respondents regarded Powell's press conference that way, and more than 70% said the same about the quarterly economic outlook that assembles the views of policymakers about inflation, unemployment and economic growth, and the Fed's policy statement itself.
The "dot plot" of policymakers' rate projections got a more mixed review, as it was seen as extremely useful or useful by only about half the respondents, reflecting ongoing debate about whether that particular bit of Fed communication is more confusing than clarifying.
Speeches by other members of the Fed's Board of Governors, the Fed's 12 regional bank presidents, and media coverage were seen as even less compelling, with more than 60% of respondents regarding them as only somewhat useful or not useful at all.
The survey was conducted between March 22 and April 5, as the Fed was in the midst of what turned into a resetting of expectations away from an outlook of imminent rate cuts to one of more sustained tighter monetary policy.
The switch was just the latest communications challenge Powell has faced, and he has not come off well across the board.
Views of Fed communications slipped in a New York Fed survey of Wall Street primary dealers conducted in January, though the Powell-led Fed has scored better among that group on average than when his predecessors, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, headed the central bank.
An annual Gallup poll of U.S. economic stewardship released this week also showed continued low public confidence ratings for Powell, with just 39% of respondents saying they had a "great deal or a fair amount of confidence" in him to "do or to recommend the right thing for the economy."
His latest mark was slightly higher than the 36% he got last year, a low point among Fed chiefs and a sharp decline from the nearly 60% confidence rating Powell received during the thick of the COVID-19 response when the Fed was back-stopping the economy in unprecedented ways.
It also showed a deep partisan divide, with 56% of Democrats and just 30% of Republicans voicing confidence in Powell, a veteran of past Republican administrations who has nevertheless won Fed appointments from presidents in both parties.
WEIGHT OF POWELL'S WORDS
Fed officials regard their communications as a separate instrument of policy.
The central bank issues closely edited statements after each policy meeting where the addition or deletion of an adjective can rock financial markets, and releases assorted other documents including meeting minutes and anecdotal economic reviews in between those meetings.
Fed officials also give a plethora of interviews and public speeches - perhaps too many.
Nearly 60% of respondents felt the Fed regional bank presidents should talk less, while 88% said Powell should speak the same amount or more, evidence of the continued primacy of his words despite the premium he has put on consensus.
The Brookings survey included topics beyond Fed communications, and notably found a strong two-thirds majority of respondents opposed raising the current 2% inflation target, a policy option Fed officials have roundly rejected at least for the time being.
Regarding the Fed's current approach to monetary policy, which was overhauled in 2020 and is due for review soon, there was general support for retaining its emphasis on maximum employment.
There was less support for keeping an approach to managing inflation which aims to use periods of above-target inflation to make up for times when inflation is weak - a strategy that made sense when it was adopted, after a decade of tepid price increases, but which seemed dated after the eruption of inflation to a 40-year high in 2022.
About 60% of respondents said the Fed should "substantially revise" or at least "tweak" that part of its operating framework.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds ... 024-05-09/
Re: POLITICS
THE CAPE CHARLES MIRROR MAY 9, 2024 AT 5:39 PM
Paul Plante says:
And my goodness, people, but JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, gazillions of extremely high-paying, good union jobs that are going to grow the American economy from the bottom up and the middle out, as Joe Biden, through the tenets of BIDE-O-NISM and thanks to BIDE-O-NOMICS, expands the middle class so that there is enough room in it to fit not only everybody in America, but everybody in the world, as well, who also wants to be middle-class like “MIDDLE CLASS JOE” Biden, who is the epitome of what a middle-classer in America should be like as an example to everybody in the world who wants to be middle class but isn’t sure what it really means.
So where on earth are they?
Are they stealth jobs, perhaps, because according to the CNBC article “U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9%” by Jeff Cox on May 3, 2024, they don’t appear to exist, to wit:
Consistent with recent trends, health care led job creation, with a 56,000 increase.
Other sectors showing significant rises included social assistance (31,000), transportation and warehousing (22,000), and retail (20,000).
Construction added 9,000 positions while government, which had shown solid gains in recent months, was up just 8,000 after averaging 55,000 over the previous 12 months.
end quotes
And if we go to the Reuters article titled “US job gains fewest in six months as labor market cools” by Lucia Mutikani on May 3, 2024, the story appears to be much the same, to wit:
Job growth last month was diverse.
The healthcare sector added 56,000 positions, spread across ambulatory healthcare services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities.
Social assistance payrolls increased by 31,000 jobs.
Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry rose by 22,000 jobs, driven by couriers and messengers as well as hiring at warehousing and storage facilities.
Retailers hired 20,100 more workers.
There were modest increases in construction and government as well as leisure and hospitality payrolls, which had been among the major drivers of employment in the past months.
Moderate job growth was also reported in manufacturing.
end quotes
So where on earth are all those jobs Joe Biden keeps telling us he has created?
In Joe’s mind?
And while we are on the subject of BLATANT BIDEN BULL****, of which Joe has a copious supply, let’s go to another Reuters article titled “Biden touts new $3.3 billion Microsoft data center at failed Foxconn site Trump backed” by Andrea Shalal on May 8, 2024, where we have a real good dose of it, to wit:
RACINE, Wisconsin, May 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday unveiled plans by Microsoft Corp to build a $3.3 billion data center in southeastern Wisconsin, drawing a sharp contrast to his Republican predecessor who had backed a previous $10 billion project at the same site that was significantly scaled back.
Biden, on his fourth visit to Wisconsin this year, said Microsoft’s investment would create thousands of jobs in the presidential election battleground state that his campaign sees as critical to his bid for a second term.
The facility will be built where Biden’s rival for the presidency, Donald Trump, announced a $10 billion investment by Taiwan electronics manufacturer Foxconn in 2017 that the company later drastically scaled back.
Trump had called it “the eighth wonder of the world.”
“I’m here to talk about a great comeback story in America,” Biden told about 200 people at Gateway Technical College’s Sturtevant campus in a Midwestern state hit by manufacturing declines.
The president said Microsoft’s investment would “be transformative, not only here, but worldwide.”
“My predecessor made promises, which he broke,” Biden said.
“On my watch, we make promises and we keep promises.”
Foxconn in 2021 said it would invest $672 million at the site instead of the $10 billion initially planned and forecast 1,454 new jobs, down from 13,000 as its plans shifted and tax breaks were reduced amid local skepticism.
Microsoft President Brad Smith said the U.S. company planned to invest $3.3 billion by the end of 2026 and use artificial intelligence to boost manufacturing and help workers.
The White House said that investment would result in 2,300 union construction jobs and around 2,000 permanent jobs over time.
It said nearly 4,000 jobs had been added in the nearby city of Racine since Biden took office, while about 1,000 manufacturing jobs were lost during the Trump administration.
end quotes
Joe Biden is so full of **** it’s a wonder he is so pasty white, which takes us back in time to a CNBC article titled “Foxconn mostly abandons $10 billion Wisconsin project touted by Trump” on September 13, 2022, where we have some actual facts to counter the TOXIC BIDEN BULL****, to wit:
Taiwan electronics manufacturer Foxconn is drastically scaling back a planned $10 billion factory in Wisconsin, confirming its retreat from a project that former U.S. President Donald Trump once called “the eighth wonder of the world.”
Under a deal with the state of Wisconsin announced on Tuesday, Foxconn will reduce its planned investment to $672 million from $10 billion and cut the number of new jobs to 1,454 from 13,000.
The Foxconn-Wisconsin deal was first announced to great fanfare at the White House in July 2017, with Trump boasting of it as an example of how his “America First” agenda could revive U.S. tech manufacturing.
For Foxconn, the investment promise was an opportunity for its charismatic founder and then-chairman, Terry Gou, to build goodwill at a moment when Trump’s trade policies threatened the company’s cash cow: building Apple’s iPhones in China for export to America.
Foxconn, the world’s largest contract manufacturer of electronic devices, proposed a 20-million-square-foot manufacturing campus in Wisconsin that would have been the largest investment in U.S. history for a new location by a foreign-based company.
It was supposed to build cutting-edge flat-panel display screens for TVs and other devices and instantly establish Wisconsin as a destination for tech firms.
But industry executives, including some at Foxconn, were highly skeptical of the plan from the start, pointing out that none of the crucial suppliers needed for flat-panel display production were located anywhere near Wisconsin.
The plan faced local opposition too, with critics denouncing a taxpayer giveaway to a foreign company and provisions of the deal that granted extensive water rights and allowed for the acquisition and demolition of houses through eminent domain.
As of 2019, the village where the plant is located had paid just over $152 million for 132 properties to make way for Foxconn, plus $7.9 million in relocation costs, according to village records obtained by Wisconsin Public Radio and analyzed by Wisconsin Watch.
Foxconn, formally called Hon Hai Precision, said the new agreement gives it “flexibility to pursue business opportunities in response to changing global market conditions.”
The company said: “Original projections used during negotiations in 2017 have at this time changed due to unanticipated market fluctuations.”
After abandoning its plans for advanced displays, Foxconn later said it would build smaller, earlier-generation displays in Wisconsin, but that plan never came to fruition either.
end quotes
So what promises did Trump break?
Or is that a figment of Joe’s senile imagination, as well?
http://www.capecharlesmirror.com/paul-p ... ent-925104
Paul Plante says:
And my goodness, people, but JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, gazillions of extremely high-paying, good union jobs that are going to grow the American economy from the bottom up and the middle out, as Joe Biden, through the tenets of BIDE-O-NISM and thanks to BIDE-O-NOMICS, expands the middle class so that there is enough room in it to fit not only everybody in America, but everybody in the world, as well, who also wants to be middle-class like “MIDDLE CLASS JOE” Biden, who is the epitome of what a middle-classer in America should be like as an example to everybody in the world who wants to be middle class but isn’t sure what it really means.
So where on earth are they?
Are they stealth jobs, perhaps, because according to the CNBC article “U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9%” by Jeff Cox on May 3, 2024, they don’t appear to exist, to wit:
Consistent with recent trends, health care led job creation, with a 56,000 increase.
Other sectors showing significant rises included social assistance (31,000), transportation and warehousing (22,000), and retail (20,000).
Construction added 9,000 positions while government, which had shown solid gains in recent months, was up just 8,000 after averaging 55,000 over the previous 12 months.
end quotes
And if we go to the Reuters article titled “US job gains fewest in six months as labor market cools” by Lucia Mutikani on May 3, 2024, the story appears to be much the same, to wit:
Job growth last month was diverse.
The healthcare sector added 56,000 positions, spread across ambulatory healthcare services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities.
Social assistance payrolls increased by 31,000 jobs.
Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry rose by 22,000 jobs, driven by couriers and messengers as well as hiring at warehousing and storage facilities.
Retailers hired 20,100 more workers.
There were modest increases in construction and government as well as leisure and hospitality payrolls, which had been among the major drivers of employment in the past months.
Moderate job growth was also reported in manufacturing.
end quotes
So where on earth are all those jobs Joe Biden keeps telling us he has created?
In Joe’s mind?
And while we are on the subject of BLATANT BIDEN BULL****, of which Joe has a copious supply, let’s go to another Reuters article titled “Biden touts new $3.3 billion Microsoft data center at failed Foxconn site Trump backed” by Andrea Shalal on May 8, 2024, where we have a real good dose of it, to wit:
RACINE, Wisconsin, May 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday unveiled plans by Microsoft Corp to build a $3.3 billion data center in southeastern Wisconsin, drawing a sharp contrast to his Republican predecessor who had backed a previous $10 billion project at the same site that was significantly scaled back.
Biden, on his fourth visit to Wisconsin this year, said Microsoft’s investment would create thousands of jobs in the presidential election battleground state that his campaign sees as critical to his bid for a second term.
The facility will be built where Biden’s rival for the presidency, Donald Trump, announced a $10 billion investment by Taiwan electronics manufacturer Foxconn in 2017 that the company later drastically scaled back.
Trump had called it “the eighth wonder of the world.”
“I’m here to talk about a great comeback story in America,” Biden told about 200 people at Gateway Technical College’s Sturtevant campus in a Midwestern state hit by manufacturing declines.
The president said Microsoft’s investment would “be transformative, not only here, but worldwide.”
“My predecessor made promises, which he broke,” Biden said.
“On my watch, we make promises and we keep promises.”
Foxconn in 2021 said it would invest $672 million at the site instead of the $10 billion initially planned and forecast 1,454 new jobs, down from 13,000 as its plans shifted and tax breaks were reduced amid local skepticism.
Microsoft President Brad Smith said the U.S. company planned to invest $3.3 billion by the end of 2026 and use artificial intelligence to boost manufacturing and help workers.
The White House said that investment would result in 2,300 union construction jobs and around 2,000 permanent jobs over time.
It said nearly 4,000 jobs had been added in the nearby city of Racine since Biden took office, while about 1,000 manufacturing jobs were lost during the Trump administration.
end quotes
Joe Biden is so full of **** it’s a wonder he is so pasty white, which takes us back in time to a CNBC article titled “Foxconn mostly abandons $10 billion Wisconsin project touted by Trump” on September 13, 2022, where we have some actual facts to counter the TOXIC BIDEN BULL****, to wit:
Taiwan electronics manufacturer Foxconn is drastically scaling back a planned $10 billion factory in Wisconsin, confirming its retreat from a project that former U.S. President Donald Trump once called “the eighth wonder of the world.”
Under a deal with the state of Wisconsin announced on Tuesday, Foxconn will reduce its planned investment to $672 million from $10 billion and cut the number of new jobs to 1,454 from 13,000.
The Foxconn-Wisconsin deal was first announced to great fanfare at the White House in July 2017, with Trump boasting of it as an example of how his “America First” agenda could revive U.S. tech manufacturing.
For Foxconn, the investment promise was an opportunity for its charismatic founder and then-chairman, Terry Gou, to build goodwill at a moment when Trump’s trade policies threatened the company’s cash cow: building Apple’s iPhones in China for export to America.
Foxconn, the world’s largest contract manufacturer of electronic devices, proposed a 20-million-square-foot manufacturing campus in Wisconsin that would have been the largest investment in U.S. history for a new location by a foreign-based company.
It was supposed to build cutting-edge flat-panel display screens for TVs and other devices and instantly establish Wisconsin as a destination for tech firms.
But industry executives, including some at Foxconn, were highly skeptical of the plan from the start, pointing out that none of the crucial suppliers needed for flat-panel display production were located anywhere near Wisconsin.
The plan faced local opposition too, with critics denouncing a taxpayer giveaway to a foreign company and provisions of the deal that granted extensive water rights and allowed for the acquisition and demolition of houses through eminent domain.
As of 2019, the village where the plant is located had paid just over $152 million for 132 properties to make way for Foxconn, plus $7.9 million in relocation costs, according to village records obtained by Wisconsin Public Radio and analyzed by Wisconsin Watch.
Foxconn, formally called Hon Hai Precision, said the new agreement gives it “flexibility to pursue business opportunities in response to changing global market conditions.”
The company said: “Original projections used during negotiations in 2017 have at this time changed due to unanticipated market fluctuations.”
After abandoning its plans for advanced displays, Foxconn later said it would build smaller, earlier-generation displays in Wisconsin, but that plan never came to fruition either.
end quotes
So what promises did Trump break?
Or is that a figment of Joe’s senile imagination, as well?
http://www.capecharlesmirror.com/paul-p ... ent-925104
Re: POLITICS
Newsweek
"Russia Makes Front Line Breakthrough in Ukraine"
Story by Brendan Cole
10 MAY 2024
Russian troops have made a breakthrough in a key city in the Donetsk region according to Ukraine's armed forces.
Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for Ukraine's Khortytsia operational-strategic group of troops fighting on the front line, said Russian assault groups had advanced into Krasnohorivka, west of the city of Donetsk, and entered the site of an industrial plant.
"Thanks to the efforts of our units, including the 59th brigade, the enemy was blocked and is still there," Voloshyn told Ukraine's Army TV, as reported by Ukrainian media outlets.
"Our defenders fully control both Krasnohorivka and the outskirts of the settlement," he added.
He said that Russia's forces are cut off from ammunition supplies and that its troops were also storming the town of Netaylove 10 miles further north and trying to advance on the eastern part of nearby Pervomaiske, although he insisted "our soldiers are repelling them."
One Russian milblogger said that Moscow's forces had broken through Ukrainian defenses in the east of Krasnohorivka, completely capturing one street, although the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Wednesday there was no visual confirmation of this claim.
Other Russian milbloggers gave accounts on Telegram of the latest situation in the city, which come as Russian forces' momentum continues in Donetsk Oblast amid assessments that they are seeking to capture the city of Chasiv Yar, which would be a springboard into other settlements in the region.
"In Krasnohorivka, the main battles are at the plant, where most of it is ours, but the mop-up operation is still underway, the enemy is sitting tight," wrote "Voenkor Kotenyok."
Meanwhile, the ISW said in its daily update that Moscow's forces had made marginal gains west of Donetsk City but there were no changes to the front line where elements of Russia's 238th Artillery Brigade are operating.
It comes as a Ukrainian airstrike on Thursday in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, by the border with Ukraine, left eight people injured and damaged buildings and vehicles, according to regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov.
Russia continues to fire Shahed-type drones toward Ukraine, launching at least 20 of the devices overnight Wednesday from occupied Crimea.
Ukraine's Air Force said it intercepted 17 of the drones over Odesa Oblast, without revealing whether the attack had caused damage.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... df4d&ei=20
"Russia Makes Front Line Breakthrough in Ukraine"
Story by Brendan Cole
10 MAY 2024
Russian troops have made a breakthrough in a key city in the Donetsk region according to Ukraine's armed forces.
Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for Ukraine's Khortytsia operational-strategic group of troops fighting on the front line, said Russian assault groups had advanced into Krasnohorivka, west of the city of Donetsk, and entered the site of an industrial plant.
"Thanks to the efforts of our units, including the 59th brigade, the enemy was blocked and is still there," Voloshyn told Ukraine's Army TV, as reported by Ukrainian media outlets.
"Our defenders fully control both Krasnohorivka and the outskirts of the settlement," he added.
He said that Russia's forces are cut off from ammunition supplies and that its troops were also storming the town of Netaylove 10 miles further north and trying to advance on the eastern part of nearby Pervomaiske, although he insisted "our soldiers are repelling them."
One Russian milblogger said that Moscow's forces had broken through Ukrainian defenses in the east of Krasnohorivka, completely capturing one street, although the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Wednesday there was no visual confirmation of this claim.
Other Russian milbloggers gave accounts on Telegram of the latest situation in the city, which come as Russian forces' momentum continues in Donetsk Oblast amid assessments that they are seeking to capture the city of Chasiv Yar, which would be a springboard into other settlements in the region.
"In Krasnohorivka, the main battles are at the plant, where most of it is ours, but the mop-up operation is still underway, the enemy is sitting tight," wrote "Voenkor Kotenyok."
Meanwhile, the ISW said in its daily update that Moscow's forces had made marginal gains west of Donetsk City but there were no changes to the front line where elements of Russia's 238th Artillery Brigade are operating.
It comes as a Ukrainian airstrike on Thursday in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, by the border with Ukraine, left eight people injured and damaged buildings and vehicles, according to regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov.
Russia continues to fire Shahed-type drones toward Ukraine, launching at least 20 of the devices overnight Wednesday from occupied Crimea.
Ukraine's Air Force said it intercepted 17 of the drones over Odesa Oblast, without revealing whether the attack had caused damage.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... df4d&ei=20
Re: POLITICS
CNBC
"Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 10 2024
KEY POINTS
* The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76. The move represented a one-month decline of 12.7%.
* The one-year inflation outlook jumped to 3.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from a month ago to the highest level since November 2023.
Consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations rose, despite otherwise strong signals in the economy, according to a closely watched survey released Friday.
The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76.
The move represented a one-month decline of 12.7% but a year-over-year gain of 14.2%.
Along with the downbeat sentiment measure, the outlook for inflation across the one- and five-year horizons increased.
The one-year outlook jumped to 3.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from a month ago to the highest level since November.
Also, the five-year outlook rose to 3.1%, an increase of just 0.1 percentage point but reversing a trend of lower readings in the past few months, also to the highest since November.
“While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.
“They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead.”
Other indexes in the survey also posted substantial declines: The current conditions index fell to 68.8, down more than 10 points, while the expectations measure fell to 66.5, down 9.5 points.
Both pointed to monthly drops of more than 12%, though they were higher from a year ago.
The report comes despite the stock market riding a strong rally and gasoline prices nudging lower, though still at elevated levels.
Most labor market signals remain solid, though jobless claims last week hit their highest level since late August.
“All things considered, however, the magnitude of the slump in confidence is pretty big and it isn’t satisfactorily explained by” geopolitical factors or the mid-April stock market sell-off, wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
“That leaves us wondering if we’re missing something more worrying going on with the consumer.”
The inflation readings represent the biggest pitfall for policymakers as the Federal Reserve contemplates the near-term path of monetary policy.
“Uncertainty about the inflation path could suppress consumer spending in the coming months."
"The Fed is walking a tightrope as they balance both mandates of price stability and growth,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
“Although it’s not our base case, we do see rising risks of stagflation, a concern the markets will have to deal with, in addition to the impacts from the presidential election.”
At their meeting last week, Fed officials indicated they need “greater confidence” that inflation is moving “sustainably” back to their 2% goal before lowering interest rates.
Policymakers consider expectations a key to taming inflation, and the outlook now from the Michigan survey has shown consecutive months of increases after falling considerably between November and March of this year.
Market pricing is pointing to a strong expectation that the Fed will begin reducing its key borrowing rate in September after holding it at its highest level in more than 20 years since July 2023.
However, the outlook has been in flux even with Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating in his post-meeting news conference that it is unlikely the central bank’s next move would be a hike.
The next important data point for inflation comes Wednesday when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index report for April.
Most Wall Street economists expect the report to show a slight moderation in price pressures, though the widely followed CPI index has been running well ahead of the Fed’s target, at 3.5% annually in March.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/consume ... shows.html
"Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge"
Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 10 2024
KEY POINTS
* The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76. The move represented a one-month decline of 12.7%.
* The one-year inflation outlook jumped to 3.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from a month ago to the highest level since November 2023.
Consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations rose, despite otherwise strong signals in the economy, according to a closely watched survey released Friday.
The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76.
The move represented a one-month decline of 12.7% but a year-over-year gain of 14.2%.
Along with the downbeat sentiment measure, the outlook for inflation across the one- and five-year horizons increased.
The one-year outlook jumped to 3.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from a month ago to the highest level since November.
Also, the five-year outlook rose to 3.1%, an increase of just 0.1 percentage point but reversing a trend of lower readings in the past few months, also to the highest since November.
“While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.
“They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead.”
Other indexes in the survey also posted substantial declines: The current conditions index fell to 68.8, down more than 10 points, while the expectations measure fell to 66.5, down 9.5 points.
Both pointed to monthly drops of more than 12%, though they were higher from a year ago.
The report comes despite the stock market riding a strong rally and gasoline prices nudging lower, though still at elevated levels.
Most labor market signals remain solid, though jobless claims last week hit their highest level since late August.
“All things considered, however, the magnitude of the slump in confidence is pretty big and it isn’t satisfactorily explained by” geopolitical factors or the mid-April stock market sell-off, wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
“That leaves us wondering if we’re missing something more worrying going on with the consumer.”
The inflation readings represent the biggest pitfall for policymakers as the Federal Reserve contemplates the near-term path of monetary policy.
“Uncertainty about the inflation path could suppress consumer spending in the coming months."
"The Fed is walking a tightrope as they balance both mandates of price stability and growth,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
“Although it’s not our base case, we do see rising risks of stagflation, a concern the markets will have to deal with, in addition to the impacts from the presidential election.”
At their meeting last week, Fed officials indicated they need “greater confidence” that inflation is moving “sustainably” back to their 2% goal before lowering interest rates.
Policymakers consider expectations a key to taming inflation, and the outlook now from the Michigan survey has shown consecutive months of increases after falling considerably between November and March of this year.
Market pricing is pointing to a strong expectation that the Fed will begin reducing its key borrowing rate in September after holding it at its highest level in more than 20 years since July 2023.
However, the outlook has been in flux even with Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating in his post-meeting news conference that it is unlikely the central bank’s next move would be a hike.
The next important data point for inflation comes Wednesday when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index report for April.
Most Wall Street economists expect the report to show a slight moderation in price pressures, though the widely followed CPI index has been running well ahead of the Fed’s target, at 3.5% annually in March.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/consume ... shows.html
Re: POLITICS
REUTERS
"US consumer sentiment at six-month low; inflation expectations rise"
By Lucia Mutikani
May 10, 2024
Summary
* Consumer sentiment index falls to 67.4 in May
* One-year inflation expectations rise to 3.5% from 3.2%
* Long-run inflation expectations edge up to 3.1% from 3.0%
WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment sagged to a six-month low in May as households worried about the higher cost of living and unemployment, but economists cautioned against drawing conclusions on the implications for the economic outlook.
The larger-than-expected drop in sentiment reported by the University of Michigan on Friday was across all age, income and education groups as well political party affiliation.
"Consumer confidence is volatile on a month-to-month basis and has not been an important driver of consumer spending in recent years," said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
"The resilience of consumer spending is dependent on the strong state of household balance sheets and the robust labor market."
"Only if the latter begins to falter would we expect to see more meaningful signs of economic weakness emerge."
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 67.4 this month, the lowest level since last November, compared to a final reading of 77.2 in April.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 76.0.
They estimated that the University of Michigan's ongoing transition to web-based interviews from telephone surveys had knocked about 2 points off the headline index this month.
Economic growth slowed in the first quarter and employers hired the fewest number of workers in six months in April, recent data showed.
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said consumers "expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead."
With gasoline prices pretty much stable in recent weeks and stock market prices mostly trending higher, economists were at a loss to explain the rest of the drop in sentiment.
"It is hard to explain given that .... there is little evidence of any major downturn in the labor market."
"Households could also still be reacting to the earlier selloff in equities around mid-April," said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
"It could also be due to other non-economic factors like the upcoming election, the brief Israel-Iran conflict or the spread of pro-Palestinian protests across college campuses."
"It might simply be noise rather than signal."
The mood was downbeat among Democrats, independents and Republicans.
Stocks on Wall Street were mixed.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
HIGH INFLATION
The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% in May from 3.2% in April, remaining above the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Its five-year inflation outlook increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in the prior month.
While long-run inflation expectations have been within the narrow 2.9%-3.1% range for 30 of the last 34 months, they remain high relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.
Inflation reaccelerated in the first quarter, but economists believe the disinflation trend will reassert itself in the second quarter as domestic demand cools in response to 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022.
Inflation data next week is expected to show consumer prices moderating in April after three straight months of strong readings.
Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to start its easing cycle in September.
But some economists are skeptical as inflation remains way above the Fed's 2% target.
The central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since July.
"The Fed is unlikely to cut rates, absent the onset of recession, unless inflation is clearly headed sustainably to 2%," Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital.
"Anchored inflation expectations are a key part of this assessment and a 3.1% longer-term expectation is near the high end of the range that the Fed judges as being anchored."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-c ... 024-05-10/
"US consumer sentiment at six-month low; inflation expectations rise"
By Lucia Mutikani
May 10, 2024
Summary
* Consumer sentiment index falls to 67.4 in May
* One-year inflation expectations rise to 3.5% from 3.2%
* Long-run inflation expectations edge up to 3.1% from 3.0%
WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment sagged to a six-month low in May as households worried about the higher cost of living and unemployment, but economists cautioned against drawing conclusions on the implications for the economic outlook.
The larger-than-expected drop in sentiment reported by the University of Michigan on Friday was across all age, income and education groups as well political party affiliation.
"Consumer confidence is volatile on a month-to-month basis and has not been an important driver of consumer spending in recent years," said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
"The resilience of consumer spending is dependent on the strong state of household balance sheets and the robust labor market."
"Only if the latter begins to falter would we expect to see more meaningful signs of economic weakness emerge."
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 67.4 this month, the lowest level since last November, compared to a final reading of 77.2 in April.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 76.0.
They estimated that the University of Michigan's ongoing transition to web-based interviews from telephone surveys had knocked about 2 points off the headline index this month.
Economic growth slowed in the first quarter and employers hired the fewest number of workers in six months in April, recent data showed.
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said consumers "expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead."
With gasoline prices pretty much stable in recent weeks and stock market prices mostly trending higher, economists were at a loss to explain the rest of the drop in sentiment.
"It is hard to explain given that .... there is little evidence of any major downturn in the labor market."
"Households could also still be reacting to the earlier selloff in equities around mid-April," said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
"It could also be due to other non-economic factors like the upcoming election, the brief Israel-Iran conflict or the spread of pro-Palestinian protests across college campuses."
"It might simply be noise rather than signal."
The mood was downbeat among Democrats, independents and Republicans.
Stocks on Wall Street were mixed.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
U.S. Treasury prices fell.
HIGH INFLATION
The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% in May from 3.2% in April, remaining above the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Its five-year inflation outlook increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in the prior month.
While long-run inflation expectations have been within the narrow 2.9%-3.1% range for 30 of the last 34 months, they remain high relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.
Inflation reaccelerated in the first quarter, but economists believe the disinflation trend will reassert itself in the second quarter as domestic demand cools in response to 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022.
Inflation data next week is expected to show consumer prices moderating in April after three straight months of strong readings.
Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to start its easing cycle in September.
But some economists are skeptical as inflation remains way above the Fed's 2% target.
The central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since July.
"The Fed is unlikely to cut rates, absent the onset of recession, unless inflation is clearly headed sustainably to 2%," Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital.
"Anchored inflation expectations are a key part of this assessment and a 3.1% longer-term expectation is near the high end of the range that the Fed judges as being anchored."
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-c ... 024-05-10/
Re: POLITICS
REUTERS
"US monetary policy may not be tight enough, Fed's Logan says"
By Ann Saphir
May 10, 2024
NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana, May 10 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan on Friday said it's not clear if monetary policy is tight enough to bring inflation down to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal, and with price pressures still too strong, it is too soon to be cutting interest rates.
There are still good reasons to think that inflation will return to 2% in the coming years, Logan told the Louisiana Bankers Association's annual conference.
"There are also important upside risks to inflation that are on my mind, and I think there's also uncertainties about how restrictive policy is and whether it's sufficiently restrictive to keep us on this path."
The U.S. central bank last week kept its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell noting a lack of progress on inflation so far this year means rates will likely need to stay where they are for longer than previously thought.
"As I think about appropriate policy, I think it's just too early to think about cutting rates," Logan said on Friday.
The labor market and the broader economy remain strong, she said, an unusual combination in light of the rapid decline in inflation last year.
"But it's not a 'soft landing' until we've landed, and we haven't yet landed," Logan said, referring to a scenario in which inflation falls without triggering a painful recession or major job losses.
She added that inflation data, particularly in the first quarter, "was a bit disappointing to us, and it's a good reminder of the work that we still have to do."
The Fed's gauge for its 2% inflation target - the year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index - dropped from a high of 7.1% in mid-2022 to 2.5% in January 2024, and most recently in March ticked up to 2.7%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment has remained low by historical standards, and at 3.9% in April is only a few tenths of a percentage point higher than where it was when the Fed began its rate-hike campaign in March 2022.
As of March, most Fed policymakers still thought the central bank would likely cut rates two or three times this year to avoid letting policy get overly tight and unduly harming the labor market.
Logan on Friday did not articulate a view on the potential timing for rate cuts.
"I think I need to see some of these uncertainties resolved about the path that we're on, and we need to remain very flexible to policy, and continue to look at the data that's coming in and to watch how financial conditions are evolving and make sure the judgments that we're making are appropriate."
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds ... 024-05-10/
"US monetary policy may not be tight enough, Fed's Logan says"
By Ann Saphir
May 10, 2024
NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana, May 10 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan on Friday said it's not clear if monetary policy is tight enough to bring inflation down to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal, and with price pressures still too strong, it is too soon to be cutting interest rates.
There are still good reasons to think that inflation will return to 2% in the coming years, Logan told the Louisiana Bankers Association's annual conference.
"There are also important upside risks to inflation that are on my mind, and I think there's also uncertainties about how restrictive policy is and whether it's sufficiently restrictive to keep us on this path."
The U.S. central bank last week kept its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell noting a lack of progress on inflation so far this year means rates will likely need to stay where they are for longer than previously thought.
"As I think about appropriate policy, I think it's just too early to think about cutting rates," Logan said on Friday.
The labor market and the broader economy remain strong, she said, an unusual combination in light of the rapid decline in inflation last year.
"But it's not a 'soft landing' until we've landed, and we haven't yet landed," Logan said, referring to a scenario in which inflation falls without triggering a painful recession or major job losses.
She added that inflation data, particularly in the first quarter, "was a bit disappointing to us, and it's a good reminder of the work that we still have to do."
The Fed's gauge for its 2% inflation target - the year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index - dropped from a high of 7.1% in mid-2022 to 2.5% in January 2024, and most recently in March ticked up to 2.7%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment has remained low by historical standards, and at 3.9% in April is only a few tenths of a percentage point higher than where it was when the Fed began its rate-hike campaign in March 2022.
As of March, most Fed policymakers still thought the central bank would likely cut rates two or three times this year to avoid letting policy get overly tight and unduly harming the labor market.
Logan on Friday did not articulate a view on the potential timing for rate cuts.
"I think I need to see some of these uncertainties resolved about the path that we're on, and we need to remain very flexible to policy, and continue to look at the data that's coming in and to watch how financial conditions are evolving and make sure the judgments that we're making are appropriate."
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds ... 024-05-10/